指数剔除风险
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买股卖币!美国散户抄底“区别对待”,比特币自2020年7月来首次跌破“生产成本”
华尔街见闻· 2025-11-21 11:19
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant divergence in investor behavior between the cryptocurrency and stock markets, with retail investors selling off substantial amounts of cryptocurrency while actively buying stocks, indicating a differentiated view of these asset classes [1][4][5]. Cryptocurrency Market Summary - Retail investors have sold approximately $4 billion worth of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs since November, surpassing the previous monthly record set in February [1][6]. - Bitcoin's price has fallen below its estimated production cost of $94,000 for the first time since July 2020, indicating a loss of support from mining costs [9]. - The sell-off in the cryptocurrency market has been primarily driven by non-native cryptocurrency investors, particularly retail investors using spot ETFs [6][12]. - The adjustment in the cryptocurrency market has seen a shift from native investors to traditional investors as the main drivers of market movements [9][12]. Stock Market Summary - In contrast to the cryptocurrency market, retail investors have shown strong enthusiasm for buying stocks, with a net inflow of $96 billion into global stock ETFs as of November 18, 2023 [4][12]. - The projected total net inflow for stock ETFs in November could reach $160 billion, maintaining the momentum seen in September and October [4][12]. - Retail investors are treating stocks and cryptocurrencies as distinct asset classes, as evidenced by their selective investment strategies [15]. MicroStrategy Risk Analysis - MicroStrategy, a major holder of Bitcoin, faces significant risks of being removed from key indices like MSCI, which could trigger up to $8.8 billion in passive fund outflows [5][20][23]. - The company's market capitalization is estimated at $59 billion, with approximately $9 billion attributed to passive funds tracking major indices [19]. - If removed from these indices, MicroStrategy's valuation premium could be severely impacted, potentially leading to a ratio of its market value to Bitcoin holdings approaching 1, indicating a loss of operational valuation [21][23].