生意就能做下去。 连 a16z 都在说，大语言模型（LLM）成本正以每年 10 倍的速度下降。 问题是，模型真的一直在降价吗？ Substack 专栏《mandates》的这篇文章，则认为模型成本其实并没有在下降。「 成本下降 10 倍是真实存在的，但仅限于那些性能老旧的模型。 」 很多 AI 创业者都笃信一件事——模型会降价。 只要模型降价，成本就会下降，今天勉强打平甚至亏损的收入状况，就会有好转。 「市场的需求永远只针对最好的语言模型。而 最好模型的成本始终大致相同。 」 如果现状就是这样，AI 创业的商业模式要怎么变？文章也进行了探讨，或许，又回到了那句老话——AI 创业，第一天就要考虑盈利。 AI 创业，Day One 就要出海。如何解决数据使用、运营甚至股权结构的合规化问题，欢迎来参加我们的线上 Workshop。 假设你创办了一家公司，并且清楚地知道消费者每月的付费意愿上限是 20 美元。你可能会想，这没关系，是典型的风险投资（VC）打法：按成本 收费，牺牲利润来换增长。客户获取成本 （CAC）、客户终身价值 （LTV） 这些账你都算过了。但有趣的是：你看到了 a16z 这张图表，大语言 模型（L ...

Core Viewpoint - AI is fundamentally changing the pricing logic of software, shifting from traditional seat-based pricing to usage-based or outcome-based pricing models [2][11][20]. Group 1: AI Pricing Transformation - The traditional seat pricing model is becoming less viable as AI increases efficiency, leading to fewer users and a need for new pricing strategies [11][12]. - Implementing usage-based pricing faces challenges such as the need for real-time billing systems, dynamic pricing models, and maintaining large volumes of accurate data [3][15]. - Pricing models for AI products can be analyzed based on attribution capability and autonomy, with stronger attribution and autonomy leading to greater pricing power [32][36]. Group 2: CEO Considerations for Pricing Transition - CEOs must focus on sales compensation structures and the division of sales responsibilities when transitioning to usage-based pricing [3][22]. - A hybrid business model, combining seat pricing and usage-based pricing, is expected to dominate in the coming years, especially for application-level products [3][13]. - The sales team's role must evolve to ensure that actual usage aligns with revenue recognition, avoiding the pitfalls of recording false revenue [22][23]. Group 3: Challenges in Implementing Usage-Based Pricing - Real-time monitoring is essential to manage the risk of unlimited spending in usage-based pricing models, as seen in cases like Segment [15][16]. - The dynamic nature of pricing models complicates the creation of a universal billing engine, as contracts often vary significantly [15][16]. - Maintaining a reliable data chain is crucial for accurate historical data storage, which is necessary for future pricing adjustments [15][16]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of Usage-Based Pricing - Usage-based pricing directly ties revenue to the value created for customers, allowing for a more flexible and responsive business model [17][20]. - Sales commissions in usage-based models must be adjusted to align with actual product usage, preventing cash flow mismatches [18][22]. - The integration of value creation across departments is essential for the success of usage-based pricing, requiring a shift in company culture and operations [19][21]. Group 5: Future of Pricing Models - The trend is moving towards a mixed pricing strategy, with a significant portion of companies expected to adopt outcome-based pricing in the next few years [37][49]. - Companies must enhance their products' autonomy and attribution capabilities to unlock greater commercial value [37]. - The evolution of pricing models reflects a broader shift in the industry, where agility and adaptability are key to maintaining competitive advantage [43][49].