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泸州老窖(000568)季报点评:产品矩阵筑牢发展根基 消费场景创新扩容
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-31 06:37
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2025, indicating pressure on performance due to market conditions and policy impacts [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.762 billion yuan, down 7.17% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 6.674 billion yuan, a decline of 9.80% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.099 billion yuan, down 13.07% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 87.11%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 46.67%, down 1.09 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a pricing strategy to stabilize terminal product prices, despite short-term performance pressures [1]. - The "Double Brand, Three Product Lines, Big Single Product" strategy is showing strong product capability, with stable pricing for the premium product Guojiao 1573 and steady growth for mid-range products [1]. - The company is actively entering the high-growth light bottle liquor segment, planning to launch a new product, Luzhou Laojiao Erqu, to strengthen its presence in the mass consumer market [1]. Expense Management - The company’s expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 was 12.29%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing mixed changes [2]. - In Q3 2025, the expense ratio increased to 16.13%, up 1.51 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a rise in operational costs [2]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 29.636 billion yuan, 31.415 billion yuan, and 34.022 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 12.392 billion yuan, 13.232 billion yuan, and 14.578 billion yuan [3]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.43, 14.45, and 13.11, respectively, indicating a favorable outlook [3].