文 | 北什么 "双11"的购物狂欢刚刚落幕，深圳一位经营白酒生意多年的经销商老王，却匆忙将仓库里最后几批飞天茅台全部清空。这一出手，每瓶酒竟亏损近300元。 从业十二载，他头一次遭遇如此剧烈的价格滑坡。 随手点开几家电商平台，情况更令人瞠目：53度飞天茅台散瓶的批发价已跌破1700元，部分平台在补贴之后，售价甚至低于官方建议的1499元。更有直播间 打出不到1300元的惊爆价，让不少行家直呼"看不懂"。 回想四年前，这款酒曾一度飙升至每瓶3000元以上，如今价格近乎腰斩，回落至2015年前后的水平。昔日被誉为"液体黄金"的茅台，为何转眼成了经销商急 于脱手的"烫手山芋"？ 价格持续探底 此轮跌价中，受伤最深的莫过于依赖差价牟利的经销商与囤货的黄牛。据"今日酒价"平台统计，2022年1月，飞天茅台整箱单价尚在3260元高位。 2023年下滑至2910元，2024年初进一步降至2315元，而到2025年11月18日，价格已跌至1680元。短短三年，累计跌幅超过48%。 经销商从厂家提货，不仅要支付出厂价，还常被强制搭配一些滞销系列酒，导致实际成本接近1700元每瓶。如今电商平台以1499元销售，令传统渠道压力倍 ...

超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/11/14-2025/11/27） 白酒筑底，关注结构性机会 2025 年 11 月 28 日 行 业 周 报 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 食品饮料行业 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年11月14日-2025年11月27日，SW食品饮料行业指数整 体下降2.97%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第九位，跑赢同期沪深300指 数约1.00个百分点。细分板块中，多数细分板块跑输沪深300指数。 ◼ 行业周观点：白酒筑底，关注结构性机会。白酒板块：在消费弱复苏背 景下，白酒三季度业绩加速出清。结合目前实际需求环境，预计今年四 季度到明年一季度白酒动销仍面临压力，明年二季度基于低基数有望回 暖 ...

Core Insights - The white liquor market is experiencing a price adjustment, with the average retail price of the top ten products decreasing for the second consecutive day, currently priced at 9188 yuan, down 34 yuan from the previous day [1] - A notable increase in prices was observed for Qinghua Lang, which rose by 2 yuan per bottle, while Feitian Moutai saw a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1] - The chairman of Jinshiyuan expressed optimism about a gradual recovery in the white liquor market next year, despite current challenges such as weak demand and intense competition [1] Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten white liquor products has decreased, with specific products showing varied price movements: - Feitian Moutai: 1829 yuan, up 1 yuan - Premium Moutai: 2361 yuan, down 4 yuan - Wuliangye: 853 yuan, down 5 yuan - Guojiao 1573: 877 yuan, down 6 yuan - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 579 yuan, down 6 yuan - Xijiu Junpin: 669 yuan, down 6 yuan - Qinghua Lang: 720 yuan, up 2 yuan [3][4] Market Outlook - Jinshiyuan's chairman indicated that the company is seeing progress in expanding its market outside the province, which provides some resilience despite a decline in performance in the first three quarters [1] - The industry is believed to be at the bottom of its cycle, with a cautious optimism about future recovery as inventory levels among distributors have peaked [1]

【点击进入酒价内参，查看真实酒价】 白酒业的重要新闻方面，据21报道，在今世缘2025年第三季度业绩说明会上，董事长顾祥悦明确表 示"预计明年白酒市场会逐步复苏"，这是今年首次有知名白酒品牌"一把手"公开释放出看好市场复苏的 信号。今世缘是白酒行业少数百亿级酒企之一。尽管当前行业仍面临需求疲软、竞争激烈的挑战，且今 世缘前三季度业绩出现下滑，但顾祥悦指出，其国缘品牌势能持续向上，省外市场拓展取得进展，为企 业带来一定韧性。他认为，随着经销商库存水平最高点已过，行业正处于周期底部，对未来持"谨慎乐 观"态度。这一判断与部分券商的分析相符，为处于深度调整期的白酒行业注入了一些信心。 【点击进入酒价内参，查看真实酒价】 来源：酒业内参 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，白酒市场十大单品终端零售均价周四延续回调态势。 如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日售价为9188元，较昨日回落34元，市场整体连续第二日回 调。 "酒价内参"的数据源自全国各大区均有合理分布的约200个采集点，包括但不限于酒企指定经销商、社 会经销商、主流电商平台和零售网点等，原始取样数据为过去24个小时中各点位经手的真实成交终端零 ...

| | 52度/550ml | 579/瓶 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 古井贡古20 52度/500ml | 510/瓶 | 持不 | | 2 | 习酒君品 53度/500ml | 669/瓶 | -6元 | | | 青花郎 53度/500ml | 720/瓶 | 2元 | | | 水晶剑南春 52度/500ml | 405/瓶 | -570 | | | STOR 打开新浪财经APP | 搜索 酒价内参 Q | | | | 新浪财经客户端 Sina Finance Mobile Version | | | 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，白酒市场十大单品终端零售均价周四延续回调态势。如 果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日售价为9188元，较昨日回落34元，市场整体连续第二日回调。今 日上涨的酒品中，青花郎价格环比小涨2元/瓶，逆风上扬。飞天茅台价格微涨1元/瓶。古井贡古20的价格 则与昨日持平，近两日的市场表现都较为稳定。多数产品价格延续下行势头，国窖1573价格环比下跌6元/ 瓶。洋河梦之蓝M6+价格下跌6元/瓶。习酒君品亦下跌6元/瓶。五粮液普五八 ...

资料图。 五粮液为何跌到行业第三？ 吴楠 在白酒行业的叙事里，"铁打的茅五，流水的老三"曾是延续多年的共识。多年来，贵州茅台以 绝对优势稳居榜首，五粮液则牢牢守住"千年老二"的位置，至于行业第三的席位，始终在泸州 老窖、山西汾酒等企业间轮换，从未对"茅五"的双寡头格局构成实质冲击。 但随着2025年三季报的披露，这一固化多年的格局悄然生变。根据五粮液披露的数据，今年第 三季度公司实现营业收入81.7亿元，同比大幅下降52.66%；归母净利润仅为20.2亿元，同比骤 降65.62%。这组数据不仅创下近20年来最差的单季业绩表现，更直接改写了行业座次——山西 汾酒以89.6亿元的营收反超， 五粮液首次跌至A股白酒上市公司第三位 。 资本市场一片哗然，毕竟，这不仅是数字上的退步，更象征着一个时代标杆的动摇。 但并非毫无征兆。近年来，五粮液管理层频繁变动导致战略衔接断层，渠道矛盾随着库存高 企、价格倒挂尖锐，核心单品"第八代普五"的竞争力受到竞品冲击……诸多问题早已埋下伏 笔，只是在2025年三季度集中爆发。 如今，市场更关心的是：这场业绩"跳水"，究竟是五粮液为优化渠道、稳定价盘而主动承受的 短期阵痛？还是公司盈利 ...

来源：酒业内参 | 品名/规格 | | 今日价格(元) | 较昨日(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵州茅台酒(飞天) | 53度/500ml | 1828/瓶 | -3元 | | 贵州茅台酒(精品) | | 2365/瓶 | -470 | | 53度/500ml | | | | | 五粮液普五八代 | | 858/瓶 | -10元▼ | | 52度/500ml | | | | | 青花汾20 | 53度/500ml | 390/瓶 | | | 国窖1573 | 883/瓶 | -12元 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52度/500ml | | | | 洋河梦之蓝M6+ | 585/瓶 | -15元 | | 52度/550ml | | | | 古井贡古20 | 510/瓶 | 4 TT | | 52度/500ml | | | | 习酒君品 | 675/瓶 | 持本 | | 53度/500ml | | | | 青花郎 | 718/瓶 | -12元▼ | | 53度/500ml | | | | 水晶剑南春 | 410/瓶 | -11元▼ | | 52度/500m ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][15]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in consumer spending, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2026 fiscal year, with a focus on health innovation and digital supply chains [3][10]. - The report highlights the differentiation in performance across categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [2][10]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in premium liquor brands, dairy products, and innovative snack foods, with specific recommendations for companies like Guizhou Moutai, Yili, and Eastroc Beverage [2][3][15]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a cumulative decline of 1.52% this week, with A-shares down 1.36% and H-shares down 3.69% [1]. - Notable performers included Nanchao Food (+11.91%) and Yili (+2.65%) [1]. Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor sector is entering a left-side layout phase, with premium brands expected to gain market share [2][10]. - Recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guizhou Moutai, with a focus on companies that can leverage pricing power and regional advantages [2][10]. Beer - The beer industry is experiencing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery [2][11]. - Yanjing Beer is recommended for its strong growth potential and ongoing internal reforms [2][11]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is seeing a steady recovery in demand, with Yili recommended for its valuation safety margin [2][13]. - The report anticipates improvements in supply-demand dynamics by 2026 [2][13]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the growth potential of konjac snacks, with leading companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi showing strong competitive advantages [2][12]. - The snack industry is shifting towards a category-driven growth model, necessitating strong product differentiation [2][12]. Investment Recommendations - The recommended investment portfolio includes Guizhou Moutai, Babi Food, Eastroc Beverage, Weilong, and Luzhou Laojiao, with an average decline of 4.94% this week [3][15]. - The report suggests that the current pricing environment for Moutai presents a favorable investment opportunity, with expectations for revenue growth in the coming years [15][16].

| 贵州茅台酒(飞天) | 1831/瓶 | -470 | | --- | --- | --- | | 53度/500ml | | | | 贵州茅台酒(精品) | 2369/瓶 | -9元 | | 53度/500ml | | | | 五粮液普五八代 | 868/瓶 | 2元 | | 52度/500ml | | | | 青花汾20 53度/500ml | 396/瓶 | 2元 | | 国窖1573 | 895/瓶 | 670 | | 52度/500ml | | | | 洋河梦之蓝M6+ | 600/瓶 | | | 52度/550ml | | | | 古井贡古20 52度/500ml | 506/瓶 | -7元 | | 郎 | 青花郎 53度/500ml | 730/瓶 | 570- | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10.01 | 水晶剑南春 52度/500ml | 421/瓶 | 3元- | | 2 | 习酒君品 53度/500ml | 675/瓶 | 2元- | 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，白酒市场十大单品终端零售均价周二延续升势。如果十 大单品各取一瓶整体打包 ...

Core Insights - The retail average price of the top ten liquor products in the white liquor market continues to rise, reaching 9,291 yuan, an increase of 8 yuan from the previous day, marking four consecutive days of price increases [1] Price Movements - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ shows strong performance with a daily price increase of 8 yuan per bottle [1] - Guojiao 1573 price increased by 6 yuan per bottle [1] - Qinghua Lang price rose by 5 yuan per bottle, achieving five consecutive days of increases, leading the market [1] - Crystal Jian Nan Chun and Xijiu Junpin prices increased by 3 yuan and 2 yuan per bottle, respectively, showing stable trends [1] - Qinghua Fen 20 price increased by 2 yuan per bottle [1] - Wuliangye Pu 58 price also rose by 2 yuan per bottle [1] Price Declines - Premium Moutai and Gujing Gong Gu 20 experienced significant declines, with prices dropping by 9 yuan and 7 yuan per bottle, respectively [1] - Feitian Moutai price decreased by 4 yuan per bottle [1]