Workflow
收入确认节奏
icon
Search documents
巨人网络(002558):《超自然》流水强劲趋势不改 递延节奏短暂影响Q3
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 00:38
Core Viewpoint - The company's Q3 2025 revenue met expectations, while net profit fell short due to extended revenue recognition for its leading product, "Supernatural Action Group" [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 1.71 billion yuan, a 116% year-on-year increase, aligning with the expected 1.69 billion yuan - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 640 million yuan, up 81% year-on-year, but below the anticipated 800 million yuan - Non-GAAP net profit was 678 million yuan, reflecting a 74% year-on-year growth [1] Development Trends - The revenue performance of "Supernatural" continues to exceed market expectations, with cumulative revenue in Q3 2025 nearing 1.5 billion yuan - The revenue recognition pace was slightly delayed due to reassessment of user lifecycle expectations, while costs were recognized in the current period, leading to lower-than-expected profits - As of the end of Q3 2025, contract liabilities stood at 1.33 billion yuan, up 440 million yuan from the previous quarter, providing a solid foundation for future performance [2] Expense Management - Sales expense ratio increased by 1.4 percentage points to 36.6%, with absolute sales expenses rising 124% to 625 million yuan, primarily due to promotional costs for "Supernatural" and increased channel sharing expenses - R&D expenses grew by 80% year-on-year to 340 million yuan, with an R&D expense ratio of 20%, driven by orderly project staffing to support content updates and version iterations [2] Future Outlook - In 2026, the focus will remain on the development trends of "Supernatural," with attention on domestic new versions and overseas expansion - Key domestic metrics include peak concurrent users during the October holiday and potential user growth during the winter and Spring Festival - Internationally, the company will monitor release plans in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and preparation in Europe, the U.S., and Japan - The new game "Ming Jiang Sha" has received positive user feedback during its latest paid testing phase, with attention on its commercialization adjustments and launch plans for early next year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecast, with the current price corresponding to 31/21x P/E for 2025/2026 - The rating remains "outperform" with a target price of 48.7 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 30% [4]