机构：中金公司 研究员：吴其坤/冯启斌/郑学建/杨鑫 1H25 业绩符合市场预期 建议关注联营企业中航信移动科技（"航旅纵横"经营方）经营动向。根据公司2024 年年报，截至2024 年末公司持有中航信移动科技有限公司20.66%的股权。根据中国民用航空网，航旅纵横App 于7 月正式 上线"民航官方直销平台"功能，用户可在单一界面完成多家航司直销机票的比价和购买；航旅纵横作为 平台方，不收取机票代理费。我们建议继续关注近期航旅纵横用户活跃度变化，以及对其商业化的潜在 影响。 盈利预测与估值 我们维持公司2025、2026 年盈利预测23.27 亿元、25.81 亿元不变。当前股价对应13.6 倍2025 年市盈率 和12.1 倍2026 年市盈率。维持跑赢行业评级和目标价13 港元不变（对应15 倍2025 年市盈率和13 倍 2026 年市盈率），较当前股价有10.2%的上行空间。 风险 民航需求不及预期；成本增长高于预期；大额减值准备计提。 营业成本同比有所下滑；回款情况改善。1H25 公司营业成本同比下滑4.2%，主要受益于：1）由于部 分固定资产和无形资产已完成折旧摊销，折旧摊销成本同比下滑17.6 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：陈彦 1H25 业绩低于我们预期 成本改善不及预期；煤价超预期下跌。 发展趋势 量价齐增助力公司盈利改善修复。量方面，我们预计随着天气等扰动因素缓解，公司下半年销量有望实 现双位数环比增长。价格方面，6 月以来煤价呈回升态势，截至8 月15 日澳洲5500 大卡/纽卡斯尔6000 大卡动力煤价格分别为71/111 美元，较2Q25 均价的68/99 美元回升。往前看，在供给边际收缩、供暖期 补库需求提振的作用下，我们预期下半年煤价整体回升。 盈利预测与估值 考虑到煤价下调等假设，下调2025/26E 盈利37%/7%至5.35/7.47 亿澳元。当前股价对应港股2025/26E 市 盈率为13.6 倍/9.3 倍。考虑到公司较可比同行具备一定成本优势，我们维持跑赢行业评级，随着需求边 际改善，叠加7 月以来"反内卷"政策在行业中持续发酵，看好2025-2026 年基本面保持韧性，切换至 2026 年估值，下调目标价6%至29 港元，对应港股14.0 倍2025E 市盈率和9.6 倍2026E 市盈率，隐含3% 上行空间。 风险 公司公布1H25 业绩：经营性EBITDA 为5.95 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expectation of over 20% relative return within the next six months [6][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 97.543 billion for the first half of 2025, an increase of RMB 4.621 billion or 4.97% year-on-year. However, the profit before tax decreased by RMB 5.12 billion or 7.06% to RMB 6.737 billion, and the profit attributable to shareholders fell by RMB 1.44 billion or 4.36% to RMB 3.161 billion. The interim dividend was set at RMB 0.166 per share, slightly up from RMB 0.164 per share in the same period last year [1]. Sales Performance - The total natural gas sales volume reached 29.095 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.05%. Retail gas volume was 16.666 billion cubic meters, up 2.23%. The breakdown shows industrial gas volume at 12.47 billion cubic meters (+8%), commercial gas at 1.693 billion cubic meters (-1.5%), residential gas at 2.014 billion cubic meters (-3.6%), and gas station sales at 0.488 billion cubic meters (-48.5%). Distribution and trade saw a significant increase of 22.6% to 12.429 billion cubic meters. The average sales price of natural gas was RMB 2.77 per cubic meter, down RMB 0.1 from the previous year [2]. Processing and Transportation Performance - The LNG processing and transportation segment generated revenue of RMB 4.371 billion, a slight decrease of 1.58%. However, profit before tax increased by 11.41% to RMB 1.836 billion. The LNG plants achieved a record profit of RMB 140 million, with a 25% reduction in maintenance cycles. The total LNG gasification and loading volume at the receiving stations reached 7.899 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.66% [3]. Oil and LPG Sales - The average selling price of crude oil decreased from USD 67.77 per barrel to USD 62.88 per barrel, leading to a 15.91% drop in crude oil sales revenue to RMB 0.74 billion. LPG sales volume increased by 4.87% to 3.0684 million tons, with revenue rising by 1.03% to RMB 13.02 billion. The profit before tax for the LPG segment decreased by 3.03% to RMB 544 million [4]. Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - The company effectively controlled costs, reducing other sales, general, and administrative expenses to approximately RMB 1.121 billion, down 8.86% from RMB 1.230 billion in the previous year. Employee compensation costs also decreased by 10.07% to approximately RMB 2.850 billion. Capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was RMB 1.926 billion, a significant decline of 31.6% [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to a slowdown in natural gas demand growth and a decline in international oil prices, the profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down to RMB 6.229 billion, RMB 6.696 billion, and RMB 7.213 billion, respectively, from previous estimates of RMB 6.414 billion, RMB 7.011 billion, and RMB 7.656 billion [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 3.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 435 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.35% [1] - The industry is gradually stabilizing, and the company experienced good sales growth in Q1, particularly in its raw materials business, which was the main driver of revenue growth [1][2] - The company maintained good cost control, with a reduction in total expenses compared to the previous year, positively impacting net profit [3] - The company is advancing its projects in Liaoning, which are expected to optimize product layout and create new growth points for sustainable development [3] Financial Summary - For 2025-2027, the projected net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.47 billion yuan, 1.78 billion yuan, and 2 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive growth outlook [3] - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated at 12.86 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 23.23% compared to 2024 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 3.61 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.44 [5] Sales and Pricing - In Q1, the company achieved sales volumes of 28,700 tons for raw materials and 15,400 tons for formulations, representing increases of 14.8% and 2.8% year-on-year respectively [2] - The average prices for raw materials and formulations in Q1 were 63,000 yuan and 56,600 yuan, showing declines of 8.8% and 1.6% year-on-year [2] Cost Control and Project Development - The company reduced its sales expenses by approximately 1.65 million yuan year-on-year, while management and R&D expenses increased [3] - The first phase of the Liaoning project has been completed and is in the process of trial production, with several products already meeting quality standards [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 57.82 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.9% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 13.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.08 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1% [1] - The report highlights the resilience of hydropower performance in Q1 2025, driven by the full capacity of the Lianghekou power station [2] Summary by Sections Hydropower - In 2024, the Yalong River hydropower generated 92.45 billion kWh, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year, with an average on-grid price of 0.301 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 2.9% [2] - The net profit for Yalong River hydropower in 2024 was 8.27 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit approximately 300 million yuan, a decline of about 77% compared to the same period in 2023 [2] - In Q1 2025, Yalong River hydropower generated 23.11 billion kWh, an increase of 18.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.997 billion yuan, a growth of approximately 16.5% [2] Thermal Power - In 2024, the main thermal power subsidiaries reported a net profit of about 1.5 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year, with significant growth in the Fujian region [3] - In Q1 2025, thermal power generation decreased by 32.3% year-on-year due to competition from clean energy and a decline in long-term trading prices [3] New Energy - The company added 2.632 million kW of new energy capacity in 2024, with wind and solar generation increasing by 0.6% and 63.3% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The report notes a decrease of 24.1% in solar power prices due to the rising proportion of non-subsidized projects [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 7.1 billion, 7.64 billion, and 8.08 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.1, 15.9, and 15 times [3] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating despite the pressure on thermal power prices [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][5][12] Core Views - The company achieved record production and sales in Q4 2024, but performance was significantly impacted by raw material costs and expense provisions [1][5] - The establishment of a third overseas base in Brazil is a strategic move to enhance production capacity and market reach [5][6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 22,058 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.4% [2][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,752 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26% [2][6] - Earnings per share for 2024 is estimated at 1.20 yuan, with a gross margin of 22.1% [2][6] - The company anticipates net profits of approximately 1,579 million yuan, 2,104 million yuan, and 2,448 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][5] Production and Sales Performance - The company’s tire production and sales reached approximately 8,912 million units in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.65% [5][6] - In Q4 2024, tire production and sales hit record highs, with production of about 2,340 million units and sales of 2,411 million units [5][6] Cost and Margin Analysis - The average procurement prices for key raw materials such as natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased by 28% and 13.5% respectively in 2024 [5][6] - Despite rising costs, the company benefited from a reduction in anti-dumping duties on semi-steel tires, leading to a gross margin increase of 1.05 percentage points to 22.06% [5][6] Strategic Developments - The new facility in Brazil is expected to produce 12 million semi-steel tires and generate sales revenue of 77.6 billion yuan upon reaching full capacity [5][6] - The company is also planning an H-share issuance to support its expansion efforts [5][6]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 78.584 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.614 billion yuan, up 22.2% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 22.416 billion yuan, down 11.0% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 239.2% to 1.343 billion yuan [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue reached 15.858 billion yuan, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.127 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 181.0% [1] Financial Performance - The company delivered 93 civil vessels in 2024, achieving 112.74% of the annual target, with a total weight of 7.2134 million deadweight tons [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 10.2% and 12.8% respectively, with Q1 2025 showing a significant increase due to the delivery of high-priced vessels [2] - The net profit margin improved to 4.6% in 2024 and 7.1% in Q1 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 0.65 and 4.48 percentage points respectively [2] Order Backlog and Structure - As of the end of 2024, the company had a backlog of 322 civil vessel orders, totaling 216.962 billion yuan, along with 63 repair orders worth 9.18 billion yuan [3] - The order structure has been optimized, with the company holding a leading position globally in various vessel types, including container ships and VLGCs [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 16.4x for 2025 and 13.0x for 2026 [3] - The target price has been adjusted down by 12.8% to 41.00 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 40.0% from the current stock price [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.258 billion in 2024, a decrease of 9.16% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 267 million, down 19.17% year-on-year [2][4]. - The revenue for Q4 2024 was 178 million, reflecting a significant decline of 44.2% year-on-year and 48.87% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 9 million, down 87.22% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 286 million, a decrease of 18.33% year-on-year but a substantial increase of 60.5% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 12.58 billion, with a net profit of 2.67 billion, and a non-recurring net profit also at 2.67 billion, indicating a decrease in profitability [2][4]. - The revenue breakdown shows that high-temperature alloy casting generated 420 million (down 33.3%), while deformation high-temperature alloys brought in 520 million (up 18.4%) [4]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 33.93%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 21.23%, down 2.63 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Investment Projects - The company’s fixed assets increased to 770 million by the end of 2024, with ongoing projects expected to enhance production capacity [4]. - The completion of the automated processing line for aviation components is expected to significantly contribute to the company’s production capabilities [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 363 million, 469 million, and 668 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 36%, 29%, and 42% [4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 24, 18, and 13 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].