Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In August, the planned出栏 volume of group farms increases, while retail farmers are forced to hold back livestock. The demand growth is limited, leading to significant market pressure. Recent daily transactions are poor, and it's difficult to absorb market supply. The weekend spot performance is again below expectations. The September contract still has a premium over the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the premium - narrowing market. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the March出栏 cost. Attention should be paid to the risk of the far - end price center moving down. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,550 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change; the Guangdong spot price is 14,990 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 13,825 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,945 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 contract is 14,225 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 95 yuan/ton [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the Pig 2509 contract, the trading volume is 3,591 lots, a decrease of 2,181 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 15,721 lots, a decrease of 888 lots from the previous day; for the Pig 2511 contract, the trading volume is 20,445 lots, a decrease of 13,974 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 64,842 lots, an increase of 132 lots from the previous day; for the Pig 2601 contract, the trading volume is 9,908 lots, a decrease of 5,839 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 46,745 lots, an increase of 532 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2509 contract is 55 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2511 contract is - 65 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2601 contract is - 345 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 145 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread of pigs is - 120 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the 11 - 1 spread of pigs is - 280 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the hog market, analyzing the current fundamentals, trend strength, and market logic [1][4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The market is under pressure due to increased planned slaughter volume by group farms in August, passive hog retention by散户, and limited demand growth. The daily trading volume has been poor, making it difficult to absorb market supply. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and with the significant premium of the futures price over the warehouse receipt cost, the industry's willingness to deliver has increased. Attention should be paid to the price convergence. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, with the spread structure maintaining a reverse spread. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,000 yuan/ton and 14,500 yuan/ton respectively [4] Group 4: Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,930 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 13,550 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's is 15,190 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are 13,870 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton year - on - year), 13,900 yuan/ton (down 145 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 14,130 yuan/ton (down 165 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For hog2509, the trading volume is 5,772 lots (down 4,063 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 16,609 lots (down 2,018 lots from the previous day). For hog2511, the trading volume is 34,419 lots (down 13,089 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 64,710 lots (down 1,520 lots from the previous day). For hog2601, the trading volume is 15,747 lots (down 2,368 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 46,213 lots (up 437 lots from the previous day) [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are 60 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton year - on - year), 30 yuan/ton (up 145 yuan/ton year - on - year), and - 200 yuan/ton (up 165 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively. The spread between hog9 - 11 is - 30 yuan/ton (up 65 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the spread between hog11 - 1 is - 230 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]