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邢自强:如果房地产不实现止跌回稳,很难打破消费疲软等问题
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 07:52
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for targeted policy interventions to stabilize China's real estate market, which has been in decline for five years, and emphasizes that without a recovery in the real estate sector, it will be challenging to break the cycle of low prices and weak consumption [1][7]. Group 1: Policy Recommendations - The economist proposes three main policy directions: "inventory reduction," "protection of main entities," and "mortgage subsidies" to stabilize the real estate market [3][9]. - "Inventory reduction" focuses on selectively acquiring and transforming housing stock in key first- and second-tier cities with stable rental yields and net population inflow over the next five years [3][9]. - "Protection of main entities" aims to balance accountability and assistance, ensuring that while management accountability is pursued, targeted support is provided to stabilize market participants and prevent further risk spread [3][9]. - "Mortgage subsidies" suggest providing interest rate subsidies of 100 basis points or more on mortgage loans in major cities to alleviate the financial burden on homebuyers, thereby stimulating reasonable housing demand [3][9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The implementation of these three policy measures is expected to shorten the downward cycle of the real estate market and achieve stabilization, laying a solid foundation for increased consumer spending and high-quality economic development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][10].