好的感谢主持人也感谢大家晚上参加华服雇收举办的电话会议本周的话我们是重点跟大家分享一下关于6月份债券市场的一个整体投资思路当然我们的标题也已经写的比较清晰了就是一个防守反击的思路也就是说在6月份的开始阶段可能债市的话会有一些偏弱的表现但是出现调整之后 然后或者是说天诺的这个时期过去之后可能后面会迎来一个比较好的买点然后呢使得利率下行那整体来怎么怎么去看呢然后我们首先说一下我们对于六月份利率和资金的一个走势分析然后呢首先我们在说整体的结论之前我们来看一下目前各个利率水平的一个成绩 首先第1个的话就是隔夜利率我们都知道从5月底的时候就已经冲下来了然后利润高于1.4基本上就是处于1.4附近然后期天资金的话在今天6月初的话也有一些宽松然后整体在资金利率偏宽松的环境下我们可以看到整个短端的国债利率大概是1.5国开的利率大概是1.6存单的话是1.7 两年的信用债率是略高于1.8也就是说从一个资金到债券利率这样的一个角度去看的话呢大多数的位置都是一个正carry的位置了也就是说整体债券利率然后呢在资金能够保持宽松的环境下它是有下行空间的但是有下行空间代表你就一定会下行吗不一定为什么呢因为还是会有投资者会去做一些强跑性的交易 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of currency fluctuations, particularly the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, on the financial market and liquidity conditions in China. The overall trend indicates a loosening of monetary conditions driven by external factors rather than seasonal variations [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy and Liquidity** - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been guiding liquidity conditions, leading to a significant drop in overnight and 7-day repurchase rates, which are at record lows. This indicates a trend of decreasing funding costs [1][3][4]. 2. **Impact of Currency Appreciation** - The passive appreciation of the RMB is primarily influenced by the depreciation of the US dollar and external economic policies, which have resulted in a more favorable liquidity environment in China [1][5][9]. 3. **Expectations for Future Interest Rates** - There is an expectation that short-term interest rates (DR001 and R007) will continue to decline, potentially reaching levels as low as 1.2. This trend is expected to benefit short-term financial instruments such as certificates of deposit and credit bonds [11][12]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook** - The current liquidity conditions are seen as a positive signal for the economy, with expectations of continued support for the bond market despite a lack of significant improvement in the underlying economic fundamentals [13][14]. 5. **External Factors and Market Dynamics** - The weakening of confidence in the US dollar due to recent US government policies has led to a shift in capital flows towards non-USD currencies, including the RMB. This shift is expected to further influence domestic liquidity and market conditions [8][17]. 6. **Potential for Future Rate Cuts** - If external economic conditions change, the PBOC may need to implement earlier and more substantial interest rate cuts to manage the appreciation of the RMB. Current market pricing does not fully reflect these potential rate cuts [3][16]. 7. **Investor Recommendations** - The period from July to September is anticipated to be favorable for interest rates, with expectations of significant returns across the yield curve. Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities in the upcoming issuance of long-term government bonds [18]. Other Important Insights - The PBOC's recent policy adjustments indicate a more proactive stance on managing exchange rates and liquidity, reflecting a shift in their approach to monetary policy [10]. - The market's optimistic outlook is supported by increased borrowing demand and the stability provided by major banks, despite temporary liquidity tightness observed at the end of the first half of the year [15].