◎记者 张欣然 进入四季度，市场对流动性与利率走势的关注再度升温。多家机构认为，10月虽面临政府债发行、税期 等阶段性扰动，但财政支出节奏平稳、央行操作灵活，流动性整体压力可控。资金面有望延续平稳运行 态势，债券市场短期以防御策略为主，静待四季度政策与经济信号的进一步明朗。 在需求端方面，建设银行金融市场部发布的研报认为，10月非季末月资金跨月需求有限，银行冲贷款规 模带来的准备金需求降低。同业存单到期量也从9月的3.5万亿元降至1.8万亿元，续发压力明显缓解。 债券市场情绪趋于理性 在流动性整体保持平稳的同时，债券市场情绪趋于理性。业内认为，短期内资金环境仍偏宽松，利率下 行节奏或将取决于政策信号与基本面变化。 明明表示，考虑到央行货币政策态度仍偏宽松，10月流动性收紧风险较低，资金面大概率维持平稳。经 济稳步复苏需要低利率环境支撑，货币政策预计将延续适度宽松取向，债市出现大幅调整的可能性较 小。若央行实施降息或重启国债买卖操作，利率仍有进一步下行空间。 明明建议，短期可维持中性仓位，关注短端票息策略与杠杆策略空间，静待四季度中后段利率下行的时 机。 10月流动性缺口弱于季节性 展望10月资金面情况，多位业 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced significant volatility with mixed index performances. The STAR 50 and ChiNext 50 indices rose by 6.47% and 2.50% respectively, while the Northbound 50 index fell by 3.11% [4][8] - In the H-share market, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 1.57% and 1.58% respectively. In overseas equity markets, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices declined by 0.31% and 0.50% respectively, while the DAX, CAC 40, and Nikkei 225 indices saw increases of 0.42%, 0.22%, and 0.69% respectively [4][8] Bond Market - The long-term rates in the domestic bond market increased, while the short- to medium-term rates decreased. The yields for the 30-year, 10-year, and 1-year government bonds were reported at 2.2170%, 1.8768%, and 1.3825% respectively, with the 30-year yield rising by 1.74 basis points [5][9] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures closed at $3,779.5 per ounce, up 2.54% for the week. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot price was reported at ¥852.9 per gram, increasing by 3.26% [6][10] - LME copper prices also saw an increase, with the spot price at $10,125.5 per ton, up 2.24%, and the 3-month copper futures at $10,193.0 per ton, up 2.10% [12] Fund Market Activity - The trading activity in the market was high, with an average daily trading volume of approximately ¥476.15 billion for ETFs. Notably, the A500 index saw significant net inflows, while the STAR 50 and CSI 300 indices also experienced net inflows [6][12] - As of September 28, there were 13,295 public funds in the market with a total net asset value of approximately ¥35.06 trillion. In the upcoming week, 10 new funds are set to be launched, including 1 enhanced index fund and 5 passive index funds [7][13]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 4% to 4.25% [1] - The Fed is expected to cut rates two more times this year before pausing, indicating a shift in focus from inflation risks to labor market concerns [1][1] - The Fed's economic forecast highlights this change in stance, confirming market expectations for two additional rate cuts this year [1][1] Group 2 - Future rate predictions for 2026 may see increased cuts, especially with a potential new chairperson taking over in May 2026, which could conflict with the 2% inflation target [1] - Recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen suggest a desire for broader reforms within the Federal Reserve, indicating that future responses may differ significantly from past actions [1][1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **bond market** and its relationship with the **macro economy**. The bond market has grown significantly, from 20% to 120% of GDP over the past 20 years, indicating its increasing influence on the macro economy [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Reflexivity of Bond Market**: The bond market's reflexive impact on the macro economy is crucial for understanding economic conditions. Various factors such as economic fundamentals, liquidity, policy, supply-demand relationships, and market sentiment influence interest rate fluctuations [1][2]. 2. **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The relationship between macroeconomic conditions and asset prices is characterized by supply-demand contradictions. Price fluctuations in assets like stocks and bonds reflect these contradictions [5][11]. 3. **Inflation and Interest Rate Predictions**: To determine whether the current macroeconomic environment is inflationary or deflationary, and to predict interest rate trends, analysts must examine output gaps and inflation gaps. The Taylor rule's effectiveness is limited in stagflation scenarios [6][11]. 4. **Long-term Relationship Between Interest Rates and GDP Growth**: There is a long-term intrinsic consistency between interest rates and nominal GDP growth. Historical data from countries like the US and Japan shows that rising nominal GDP growth correlates with increasing bond yields [7][8]. 5. **Capital Returns and Interest Rates**: Interest rates are fundamentally determined by capital returns, which are driven by economic growth and debt leverage. High debt leverage typically accompanies higher economic growth and capital returns [9][10]. 6. **Private Non-Financial Sector Debt Leverage**: The year-on-year growth rate of private non-financial sector debt leverage can measure debt leverage strength, which leads capital returns. Recent years have seen a slowdown in China's private sector debt leverage expansion, contributing to lower interest rates despite economic stimulus measures [10][17]. 7. **Predicting Future Bond Rates**: Future bond rates can be predicted by analyzing the contradiction between financing demand and funding supply, using metrics like the loan demand index minus M2 growth [11][12]. 8. **Real Estate Market's Impact**: The real estate sector plays a critical role in the economy, with its decline since 2021 leading to a significant reduction in financing demand, which in turn affects interest rates [16][17]. 9. **Government Debt and Interest Burden**: Increased government debt leverage raises interest burdens. China's interest payments on government bonds have doubled over the past 5-6 years, reflecting a growing concern about fiscal sustainability [28][30]. Other Important Insights - **Economic Cycles and Financing Demand**: China's economic cycles have seen shifts in financing demand, with different sectors becoming predominant over time. The recent trend shows a decline in both resident and corporate borrowing willingness [13][14]. - **Consumer Behavior and Economic Impact**: Consumer demand, which constitutes over 50% of GDP, is closely linked to employment and income levels. Recent trends indicate a decrease in consumer financing demand, contributing to lower interest rates [24][25]. - **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The People's Bank of China has shifted its monetary policy focus from solely inflation to a more diversified approach, considering various economic indicators [33][34]. - **Future Economic Outlook**: The economic growth rate is expected to decline in the latter half of the year due to reduced external demand and internal consumption challenges, with inflation remaining weak [42][43][44]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the bond market's dynamics and its implications for the macro economy.

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying the "line of least resistance" in the market, suggesting that the most challenging aspect is often the simplest: waiting for the right moment to act [1] - It outlines different strategies based on market conditions: buying in a bull market, selling in a bear market, and either holding cash or engaging in short-term trading during a sideways market [1] Group 2 - The central bank conducted a significant net injection of 421.7 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment at the end of the month [3][6] - The overnight funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.33% and DR007 at approximately 1.52% [4] - The bond market showed a slight decline in long-term yields, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.79% and slightly decreasing to around 1.78% [6][7] - Historical data indicates that the average annual return on government bonds from 2010 to 2023 was 4.1%, with a projected return of 9.3% for 2024, while the current year's return is only 0.3% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs downgraded Deutsche Bank's rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and Deutsche Commercial Bank's rating from "Neutral" to "Sell" due to their stock performance exceeding the market since the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The European banking sector has risen nearly 50% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the overall European stock market [1] - Factors contributing to this growth include strong growth momentum, a more stable and steeper interest rate trajectory, and ongoing performance growth and rating upgrades [1] Group 2: Analyst Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook for European banks, projecting an average potential stock price increase of about 10% over the next 12 months, with some stocks rated "Buy" expected to rise by approximately 20% [1] - Stocks rated "Buy" include UBS Group, ING Group, Lloyds Banking Group, BNP Paribas, National Westminster Group, Santander Bank, and HSBC [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Environment - The interest rate curve has steepened this year, with expectations for final rates trending towards a range-bound movement, enhancing investor confidence in the medium-term outlook for net interest income [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year's H1 economic data remained resilient despite tariff disruptions. July's PMI data was below expectations, with both supply and demand sides declining. New export orders and high - frequency port data indicated a potential weakening of the front - loading export effect, and future exports may face pressure. - In terms of funds, the increase in government bond issuance and maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit, as well as fluctuations in the stock and commodity markets, had an impact on capital flow. However, the central bank's supportive attitude towards funds is expected to maintain overall liquidity in the future. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and continued loose funds, interest rates are expected to trend downward in the long - term. However, the recent positive sentiment in the stock market has suppressed the bond market, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy**: H1 economic data was resilient under tariff influence. July's PMI was below expectations. Overseas, the FOMC meeting showed a marginally hawkish stance from the Fed, the BOJ kept interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a US rate cut in September increased. There were also important domestic and international policy events such as the Politburo meeting, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the announcement of the national childcare subsidy system [10][11]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 1633.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1656.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.42% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10Y Treasury yield was 1.71%, down 3.17BP week - on - week; the 30Y Treasury yield was 1.95%, down 3.70BP week - on - week. The latest 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.23%, down 17.00BP week - on - week [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - position strategy on dips, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult - to - improve credit conditions [15]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Presented the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts [19][22][25]. 3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy**: - GDP: In Q2 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. - PMI: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. - Price Index: In June, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. - Export: In June, exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. - Industrial and Consumption Data: In June, industrial added value increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year. - Investment and Real Estate Data: In June, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and real estate - related data showed continued adjustment [43][49][52]. - **Foreign Economy**: - US: Q1 GDP had a real year - on - year growth rate of 2.05% and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 0.3%. In June, CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000. - EU: Q1 GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. - Eurozone: In July, the preliminary CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, and the manufacturing PMI was 49.8 [70][73][79]. 4. Liquidity - In June, M1 growth was 4.6%, M2 growth was 8.3%, and the social financing increment was 4.2 trillion yuan. The increase in social financing mainly came from government bonds. - In July, the MLF balance was 535 billion yuan, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net injection through reverse repurchases was 6.9 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.42% [84][90]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: The latest 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury yields were 1.42%, 1.57%, 1.71%, and 1.95% respectively, with corresponding week - on - week changes of - 1.29BP, - 5.66BP, - 3.17BP, and - 3.70BP. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, down 17.00BP week - on - week [93]. - **Exchange Rates**: No specific analysis of exchange rate trends was provided, only relevant data charts were presented [101].

Tax Policy Changes - On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025[1] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity, creating a "new and old distinction" in tax application[6] Reasons for Tax Resumption - The historical mission of the tax exemption policy has been completed, as the bond market has grown significantly, now ranking second globally[3] - The resumption aims to adjust the funding structure and prevent excessive liquidity from being trapped in interest-bearing bonds, thereby increasing fiscal revenue and alleviating fiscal pressure[4] Financial Impact - The short-term revenue from the resumption of VAT on interest income is estimated to be around 34 billion yuan[5] - The tax revenue is expected to increase further as the scale of new debt issuance expands over time[5] Market Implications - In the short term, the resumption of VAT is likely to push interest rates down and create pricing differences between new and old bonds[8] - Long-term effects may be bearish for interest-bearing bonds as the cost advantage diminishes, potentially shifting investment towards credit bonds and dividend assets[8] Market Trends - Since mid-July, bond market volatility has increased significantly, influenced by liquidity conditions and strong stock market performance[9] - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated, reaching a high of approximately 1.75%[9]

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council predicts an upward trend in gold prices over the next 18 months, with a potential rise of 20% in 2024, leading to historical highs in the first half of 2025, driven by strong investment demand amid a weak dollar and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Analysts expect gold prices to consolidate with a slight upward potential of 0%-5% in the second half of 2025, depending on macroeconomic conditions [1][4] - In a bullish scenario, gold could rise by 10%-15% in the second half of 2025, potentially ending the year with a nearly 40% increase [5] - Conversely, in a bearish scenario, gold prices could retract by 12%-17%, resulting in a lower double-digit or single-digit return for the year [6] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The performance of gold in 2025 has been remarkable, with a nearly 26% increase in the first half, attributed to a weak dollar, anticipated interest rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical tensions [2][3] - Increased demand from OTC markets, exchanges, and ETFs has led to a record average daily trading volume of $329 billion in the first half of the year [2] - Central banks have continued to purchase gold at a strong pace, contributing to a 41% increase in total assets under management in gold ETFs, reaching $383 billion [2] Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Context - The macroeconomic outlook suggests global GDP will remain below trend, with inflation rates potentially exceeding 5% in the second half of the year [4] - Geopolitical tensions are expected to remain high, contributing to a generally uncertain market environment [4][5] - The weak performance of the dollar, which has seen its worst annual start since 1973, has further enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 4: Investment Demand Dynamics - Investment demand is anticipated to significantly outpace consumer demand, especially in a risk-averse environment [5] - The current net long positions in COMEX futures indicate substantial room for further accumulation if market conditions worsen [6] - The potential for new institutional investors, such as Chinese insurance companies, could provide additional support for gold prices [7]

Debt Issuance Pressure - The estimated net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds for Q3 2025 is approximately $1.12 trillion, second only to Q2 2020, indicating significant supply pressure[2] - This figure exceeds the actual financing amount of $1.01 trillion in Q3 2023, suggesting a substantial increase in issuance pressure[11] - The projected fiscal deficit for Q3 2025 is $0.6 trillion, with a TGA net increase of $0.52 trillion contributing to the net issuance estimate[11] Historical Context - The supply panic in Q3 2023 was primarily due to actual financing of $1.01 trillion significantly exceeding the expected $0.85 trillion[27] - The low TGA balance at the start of Q3 2023 (actual $148 billion vs. expected $408.6 billion) contributed to the unexpected financing pressure[27] - Historical data suggests that the overall debt maturity pressure for Q3 2025 is not significantly elevated compared to previous periods[37] Interest Rate Dynamics - Rising Treasury yields in 2023 were influenced by stronger-than-expected economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve policies[3] - If similar yield increases occur in Q3 2025, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate its easing cycle[36] - The market anticipates that the significant increase in bond supply for Q3 2025 will not lead to a repeat of the panic seen in Q3 2023 due to better expectations[28] Debt Structure Adjustments - Adjusting the issuance structure by increasing short-term debt may alleviate some pressure on long-term bond supply, but not entirely[51] - The total estimated debt issuance for FY 2025 is $30.6 trillion, with Q3 2025 expected to account for $8.32 trillion of this total[45] - The proportion of short-term debt has been increasing, with the long-term debt issuance ratio dropping to around 16%[47]