Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The potential negative factors for the current bond market come from the fundamentals, including economic data disclosure and the progress of Sino-US negotiations. Under the consensus expectation, it is difficult to say that the bond market will reverse. Attention should be paid to the changes in bond market expectations caused by event shocks [2]. - The sentiment index of fixed-income sellers has reached a new high this year, while buyers mainly expect the market to fluctuate, and their sentiment has declined for three consecutive weeks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest Rate Bonds - This week, the weighted tracking index was 0.47, showing a mostly bullish view but lower than last week. The unweighted tracking index was 0.68, up 0.09 from last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral-to-bullish view, with 18 bullish, 6 neutral, and 1 bearish [10]. - 72% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as weak credit, slow economic recovery, external demand shocks, loose monetary policy, low supply pressure in July, and opportunities for a bullish flattening of the curve after the short end declines [4][10]. - 24% of institutions are neutral, with keywords such as the neutral impact of restarting treasury bonds, and potential disturbances from the stock-bond seesaw and unexpected Sino-US negotiations [4][10]. - 4% of institutions are bearish, with the view that the central bank's bond purchases are not the reason for the decline in interest rates, and the economic recovery in the second half of 2025 is expected to drive up prices and interest rates [4][10]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest Rate Bonds - This week, the tracking sentiment index was 0.13, showing a mostly neutral view and lower than last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral-to-bullish view, with 5 bullish and 18 neutral [11]. - 22% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as loose funds and a possible quarter-on-quarter weakening of the economic fundamentals in the third quarter [11]. - 78% of institutions are neutral, with keywords such as the reduced expectation of broad credit after the second-quarter monetary policy meeting and the suppression of bond market sentiment by the equity market [11]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include the recovery of wealth management scale and loose funds. The recovery of wealth management scale may further improve the demand for credit bonds, and loose funds, combined with weak fundamentals, support the overall strength of the bond market and a decline in benchmark interest rates [17]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral-to-bullish view, with 8 bullish and 6 neutral [18]. - 57% of institutions are bullish, believing that with the new bond supply not accelerating significantly on the issuance side, the convertible bond market scale may gradually shrink in the second half of the year, and medium and large-cap convertible bonds among high-quality existing and newly issued bonds are worth attention [18]. - 43% of institutions are neutral, stating that there is still uncertainty about the US tariff increase, and the allocation value of convertible bonds will be better reflected after the valuation is moderately digested [18]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices showed mixed trends. As of July 4, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL treasury bond contracts were 102.51 yuan, 106.26 yuan, 109.10 yuan, and 121.20 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.03 yuan, -0.01 yuan, +0.05 yuan, and +0.31 yuan compared to last Friday [21]. - The trading volume of treasury bond futures generally increased. As of July 4, from a 5MA perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts were 640 billion yuan, 622 billion yuan, 766 billion yuan, and 988 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +3.04 billion yuan, +30.63 billion yuan, +77.98 billion yuan, and -19.99 billion yuan compared to last Friday [21]. - The trading-to-holding ratio of treasury bond futures generally increased. As of July 4, from a 5MA perspective, the trading-to-holding ratios of TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts were 0.27, 0.40, 0.38, and 0.85 respectively, with changes of +0.01, +0.03, +0.04, and -0.03 compared to last Friday [22]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30-year treasury bonds decreased. On July 4, the turnover rate was 4.03%, down 3.90 percentage points from last week and up 0.61 percentage points from Monday, with an average weekly turnover rate of 4.21%. The weekly average turnover rate of interest rate bonds decreased, and the turnover rate on July 4 was 0.93%, down 0.09 percentage points from last week and up 0.28 percentage points from Monday [29]. - The turnover rate of 10-year China Development Bank bonds increased. On July 4, the turnover rate was 4.91%, up 0.45 percentage points from last week and up 1.60 percentage points from Monday [32]. 2.3 Basis Trading - The basis generally narrowed, while the net basis widened across the board. As of July 4, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were -0.02 yuan, 0.001 yuan, 0.14 yuan, and 0.25 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.05 yuan, +0.05 yuan, +0.16 yuan, and -0.07 yuan compared to last Friday [39]. - In terms of the net basis, the net basis of main contracts widened. As of July 4, the net basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were -0.05 yuan, -0.06 yuan, -0.11 yuan, and -0.11 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.01 yuan, -0.01 yuan, -0.07 yuan, and -0.12 yuan compared to last Friday [41]. - In terms of IRR, the IRR of T and TL main contracts increased, while the others decreased. As of July 4, the IRR (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 1.65%, 1.69%, 1.89%, and 1.80% respectively, with changes of -0.20%, -0.23%, +0.03%, and +0.14% compared to last Friday [41]. 2.4 Inter-period and Inter-variety Spreads - Inter-period spreads showed mixed trends. As of July 4, the spreads between the near and far months of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were -0.12 yuan, -0.08 yuan, -0.08 yuan, and 0.13 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, -0.005 yuan, -0.07 yuan, and -0.01 yuan compared to last Friday [48]. - Inter-variety spreads of main futures contracts all narrowed. As of July 4, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL were 98.77 yuan, 103.39 yuan, 300.92 yuan, and 206.13 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.06 yuan, -0.07 yuan, -0.19 yuan, and -0.14 yuan compared to last Friday [48].

债务问题可能会造成利率走势不受美联储行动的影响。 美联储博斯蒂克：债务（偿还）成本可能会不利于其他活动。 ...

天风固收｜暖风再起，静待下行 20250610 摘要 财政政策和信贷方面有哪些变化？ 财政政策方面，今年财政国债发行进度较快，而地方政府专项债发行效率也有 所提高。然而，由于经济环境背景以及自发自审更加严格，这并未显著提振整 体经济。信贷方面，今年 1-4 月份金融时报提到的 1.7 万亿规模的债务置换对 信贷产生了负面影响，特别是在企业中长期偿还方面。同时，今年地方政府部 门在规则和逻辑上发生了一些变化，从而影响了信贷增长。 对于短期和长期利率走势有何看法？ 2024 年 6 月债市关注存单提价和存款搬家，季末银行负债端压力及大 行兑现利润缓解二季度压力，央行超预期投放稳定资金面，但后续措施 需持续观察。 财政政策方面，国债发行进度加快，地方政府专项债发行效率提高，但 受经济环境和自发自审影响，对整体经济提振效果有限。1-4 月债务置 换对信贷产生负面影响，地方政府部门规则变化也影响信贷增长。 短期利率因央行支持态度趋于稳定，存单价格维持在 1.7%以内。长期 利率走势取决于基本面预期变化和市场情绪，若未来货币政策进一步宽 松，可能推动长端利率下行，但目前预期不显著，6 月大概率震荡。 展望七八月，关注国内 ...

利率 - 中美即将谈判，债市如何交易？20250609 摘要 市场共识认为全球经济脱钩和碎片化是长期趋势，短期关税调整难以逆 转中美关系大方向。取消对等关税可能带来约 12 个基点的利率反弹， 但幅度有限。 6 月份资金面良好，债市情绪转好，利率下行通道打开，2001 国债有效 突破 1.4%。5 月份压制市场的负面因素消退，趋势性机会明显，建议继 续看多。 在不考虑其他因素的情况下，完全取消对等关税，预计 10 年国债收益 率上限调整至 1.75%。但当前宏观环境不支持一季度时的强劲假设，向 上反弹至 1.4%都较难实现。 中长期来看，中美关系将继续复苏，但全球经济脱钩和碎片化趋势不可 避免。结构性行业关税及 301、232 条款等贸易措施依然存在。 央行保持收紧态势，地产修复良好，共同支撑市场情绪。即使降低或取 消部分结构性行业关税，也不会改变整体看多方向。 央行买断式逆回购公告旨在稳定市场预期，释放稳流动性信号。未来央 行可能根据实际流动性情况随时进行操作，应对中美关系不确定性及国 内基本面压力。 银行体系远期流动性预期转向宽松，DR001 已突破 1.4 底线，资金宽松 感增强。非银机构对存单需求逐渐 ...

美联储理事库克在讲话中未对经济前景和利率走势发表评论。 ...

日元在22日出现小幅贬值，股市投资者由此对汽车、机械等出口相关企业业绩改善的期待增强，进一步 推高大盘。日经股指盘中一度上涨380余点。 受美国高科技股上涨及日元贬值等因素影响，东京股市23日反弹。当天收盘时，日经225种股票平均价 格指数上涨174.60点，收于37160.47点，涨幅0.47%；东京证券交易所股票价格指数上涨18.43点，收于 2735.52点，涨幅0.68%。 隔夜美国股市以高科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上涨，受此利好因素影响，东京股市23日早盘高开高走， 部分高价的半导体概念股上涨，推高日经股指。 板块方面，23日，东京证券交易所33个行业板块超八成上涨。其中，其他制品大涨3.62%，有色金属涨 近3%；矿业、证券及商品期货交易业、电力及燃气业等6个板块下跌，但跌幅不大。 分析人士指出，虽然中美关税谈判取得进展后的调查显示，日本企业心理得到改善，美国22日发布的5 月份PMI也比4月份有所改善，但东京股市感受不到交易的热情，本周以来，200日移动平均线持续成为 上方阻力线，股价始终无法突破该均线。目前股市仍受利率走势所左右，难以持续上涨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 进入午盘交易时段后，美国股 ...

独立分析师罗斯·诺曼（Ross Norman）表示："目前空头正在大举进攻，因为市场明显处于超买状态。" 现货黄金下跌0.33%，报每盎司3167.04美元，此前在盘中触及4月10日以来的最低水平。美国黄金期货 下跌0.52%，报每盎司3171.3美元。 Augmont研究部门负责人雷尼莎·查亚尼（Renisha Chainani）指出，黄金已经跌破双重顶颈线支撑位， 这表明短期内存在潜在的下行风险。她表示："价格预计将向3000 - 3050美元区间移动。" 此外，JM金融服务公司副总裁、大宗商品与外汇研究负责人普拉纳夫·梅尔（Pranav Mer）表示，随着 关键图表支撑位在3190美元被跌破，黄金价格可能会继续进行修正性走势。 其他贵金属方面，现货白银下跌1%，报每盎司31.89美元；钯金下跌0.2%，报每盎司949.07美元；铂金 则持稳于每盎司976美元。 据外媒报道，周四，黄金价格跌至一个月低点，随着全球两大经济体之间的贸易紧张局势缓解，黄金需 求受到抑制，投资者正等待美国经济数据以获取未来利率走势的进一步明确信号。 黄金通常在政治和金融不确定性时期被用作价值储存工具，上个月曾创下每盎司3500. ...

当你看对，又做对，收益率趋势性下行（价格上涨）时，你是贪婪的，总希望再下些；然而，当市场开 始中途调整时，你可能就更容易被震荡下车，因为你怕到手的利润飞走了。所以，最容易被震下车的， 不是在上涨的过程中，而是在阴跌调整的中场休息时。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250509— 两个战场，胜者为王（-4月进出口数据超预期-中美瑞士会晤避险情绪+股市小幅下跌 +资金面均衡宽松+央行：择机恢复国债买卖操作=微下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展770亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日无逆回购到期，净投放770亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格延续回落，DR001下破1.5%至1.49%，DR007下至1.54%。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 05.09) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交童占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | ( ...

机构行为的十大伪规律 报告日期： 2025-05-06 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 专题报告 第四，基金卖出就是"赎回潮"吗？——历史上看未必。由于 2024 年至今是 债券市场的大牛市，但每一次回调都相对快速，利率上行时市场总会产生"赎 回潮"的隐忧，而从数据上看基金也确实是多次行情的主要砸盘力量，但基金 的卖出行为不等于赎回潮，本文提供了两个思路进行辅助证明。 第五，保险都是配置盘吗？——交易盘比重已明显提升。通常我们认为，银行 与保险机构是债券市场中的两大类配置盘，而保险机构的行为又主要以超长 债配置为主，近年来由 30Y 国债逐步转向 30Y 地方债，但研究后我们发现， 2024 年以来保险机构中交易盘的占比已经明显攀升，可通过卖出数据辅以证 明。 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The seller sentiment index is a degree - type indicator of interest rate trends. Since 2023, the seller sentiment has been mostly optimistic, corresponding to a decline in interest rates. The weekly correlation coefficient between the seller sentiment index and interest rates is - 0.44, indicating an inverse correlation [4][12]. - The seller sentiment index has weak ability to predict events/news - related shocks in advance. Most of the time, the change of the sentiment index lags behind the appearance of interest rate inflection points. The overall guiding significance for left - hand side prediction is weak, but it is useful for right - hand side response and grasping [4][13]. - The change in the views of fixed - income sellers has a significant effect on interest rate prediction. Since 2024, the winning rate is 74%, and since Q3 2024, it is 92%. The winning rate in the bond market correction since 2024 is 60% [3]. - Two indicators are constructed to measure the divergence of fixed - income sellers' views. When the divergence is high, the subsequent interest rate is likely to break out of the consolidation. The driving factors for high divergence vary, from market - driven to active changes [3][24]. - By examining the reasons of the long and short sides since 2024, some patterns are found, such as inaccurate point - based judgments from the odds perspective, supply shocks being only auxiliary negatives, the market's learning effect increasing, and risk preference changes and weak fundamentals being difficult - to - falsify negative/positive factors [4][5][30]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Bond Market Sentiment Observation - Construction and Application of Seller Sentiment Index 1.1 Construction of the Fixed - Income Seller Sentiment Index System - Based on seller views, an index for observing the bond market sentiment is constructed. Fixed - income seller views are classified into bullish, neutral, and bearish, and then weighted or unweighted and integrated to obtain the sentiment signal from the fixed - income seller perspective [11]. - When the fixed - income seller is clearly bullish, a weight of 2 points is given; slightly bullish is 1 point; neutral, slightly bearish, and bearish are 0 points, - 1 point, and - 2 points respectively. Among 61 view expressions, the number of optimistic and neutral views on the bond market is significantly higher than that of pessimistic views, which are 13, 43, and 5 times respectively [11][12]. 1.2 Relationship between Seller Sentiment and Interest Rate Trends and Whether It Is a Leading Indicator - The seller sentiment is a degree - type indicator of interest rate trends. Since 2023, the seller sentiment has been mostly optimistic, corresponding to a decline in interest rates. The weekly correlation coefficient between the seller sentiment index and interest rates is - 0.44, indicating an inverse correlation [4][12]. - The index has difficulty in predicting events/news - related shocks in advance. Most of the time, the change of the sentiment index lags behind the appearance of interest rate inflection points. Among 8 bond market inflection points from January 2024 to the present, the seller sentiment only successfully predicted one inflection point, with a relatively low winning rate [13][15][16]. 2. Application of the Seller Sentiment Index from Three Perspectives - View Changes, Divergence Trends, and Logical Similarities and Differences 2.1 View Changes - How Effective Is It in Guiding Interest Rate Trends? - By observing the change in institutional views (i.e.,环比 change), the possible trend of interest rates can be judged. The winning rate of the环比 change of institutional views in predicting interest rates is about 74%. The winning rates of predicting the 10Y Treasury bond yield for the next week and two weeks are 74% and 72% respectively. Among 10 cases of the index's环比 weakening, 6 cases were followed by an increase in interest rates, with a winning rate of 60% [18]. - The winning rate of the sentiment index in predicting interest rate trends has gradually increased. From Q3 2024 to March 2025, the winning rate of view changes in predicting interest rates in advance was about 92% [19]. - The guiding effect of view changes is better than the "benchmark winning rate" constructed by the "buy - on - up, sell - on - down" strategy. The winning rate of the most optimistic strategy in 2024 was 67%, and it dropped to 60% when extended to April this year [23]. 2.2 Long - Short Divergence - From Market - Driven to Active Changes - Two types of indicators are constructed to measure the divergence of fixed - income sellers' views: standard deviation and the Seller Divergence Index (SDI). The SDI is more accurate in reflecting divergence on some dates, while the standard deviation is more volatile and easier to observe [24][27]. - When the divergence of fixed - income sellers is high, the subsequent interest rate will choose a direction and is likely to break out of the consolidation. Among 4 cases of high divergence since 2024, there were two obvious corrections and two declines in interest rates [27]. - The driving factors for high divergence vary. In the first three cases, market movements preceded institutional view changes, while since 2025, some institutions have actively turned bearish in a sideways market, indicating an enhanced learning effect [27]. 2.3 Logical Similarities and Differences - Identification of "Pseudo - Patterns" - Judgments on points from the odds perspective may not be accurate. In 2024, interest rates declined rapidly, but there were many bearish views in the first quarter, such as "the downward space of current interest rates is limited" [30]. - Supply shocks are only temporary disturbances and auxiliary negatives. In 2024, although the market was worried about supply shocks in the second quarter, in fact, they were not the main driver of rising interest rates [31]. - The market's learning effect is increasing, and seller views are "self - evolving". After several corrections in 2024, the market gradually became less sensitive to the same factors, and seller views analyzed regulatory factors from different perspectives. Since January - February this year, the change in the sentiment index has led the interest rate trend to some extent [31]. - Risk preference changes and weak fundamentals are two difficult - to - falsify negative/positive factors. A decline in the preference for relatively high - risk assets is usually required to increase the probability of bonds winning. The bond market has been pricing in weak fundamentals since 2024, and interest rates are more sensitive when the fundamentals improve [32].