证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 利差调整后，或存补涨机会 ——信用分析周报（2025/8/18-2025/8/22） 投资要点： 本周（8/18-8/22）市场概览： 1）一级市场：本周传统信用债发行量、净融资额环比上周有所增加，偿还量环比上 周有所减少；资产支持证券净融资额环比上周减少 167 亿元；本周 AA 产业债、AA+ 金融债加权平均发行利率下降，其余不同评级不同券种的发行成本有所上升。 联系人 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周增加 811 亿元；换手率方面，本周信用债 换手率较上周有涨有跌。本周不同期限的信用债收益率均有不同程度上行，部分信 用债收益率调整幅度超过 10BP。总体来看，本周不同行业不同评级的信用利差大多 有不超过 5BP 的调整，少数行业信用利差有所压缩。具体来看，本周 AA 传媒、AAA 家用电器信用利差较上周分别走扩 5BP、5BP，AA+休闲服务、机械设备信用利差 较上周分别压缩 5BP、6BP。除此以外，其余各行业各评级的债券信用利差波动幅 度均不到 5BP。 3）负面舆情：本周共有 11 个主体的 97 只债项 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 把握调整后的信用票息 证券研究报告 信用策略周报 20250824 一、信用调整了多少？ 本周（8/18-8/24），信用债收益率跟随利率债调整，且调整幅度多高 于利率，信用利差有所走阔： 超长信用本周跌幅较为明显，部分中高等级 7-10 年期普信品种跌幅逾 10bp，7-10 年期二级资本债跌幅弱于普信； 3-5 年信用品种跌幅亦不低，且城投债>二永债>中短票； 2 年期及以内的短端品种当周跌幅相对不深，部分信用利差小幅收窄。 二、信用，谁在买？谁在卖？ 近期，从主要买盘行为看，整体呈现如下特征： 基金为代表的交易盘整体净卖出，尤其是对二永等类利率品种； 理财、保险等配置盘继续逢调整买入，但整体集中在 3 年期以内的中 短端债项。 三、调整后的信用"扛跌性"如何？ 计算按当前收益率持有各品种三个月的静态"扛跌性"： 1 年内的短端品种票息保护较为充足，多在 50+bp； 4-5 年期信用品种目前"扛跌性"约在 10-20bp，虽然对应品种期间 跌幅较深，但由于当前该期限段收益率曲线整体相对平缓，故相较于 7 月 18 日的"扛跌性"变动不大； 5 年期以上的超长信用债整体"扛跌性 ...

证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 邮 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 流动性收紧叠加情绪冲击 信用利差全面走高 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 20250823 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 8 月 23 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 3流动性收紧叠加情绪冲击 信用利差全面走高 [Table_Repo ...

2025 年 8 月 23 日 总量研究 信用债发行环比增长，各行业信用利差涨跌互现 ——信用债周度观察（20250818-20250822） 要点 1、 一级市场 注：本篇报告的信用债口径包括定向工具、短期融资券、公司债、金融债（不含 同业存单和政金债）、中期票据、企业债。 2025 年 8 月 18 日至 8 月 22 日（以下简称"本周"），信用债共发行 375 只， 发行规模总计 3767.40 亿元，环比增加 12.45%。 发行规模方面，本周，产业债共发行 149 只，发行规模达 1192.13 亿元，环比 减少 28.85%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 31.64%；城投债共发行 182 只， 发行规模达 1158.27 亿元，环比增加 7.26%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 30.74%；金融债共发行 44 只，发行规模达 1417.00 亿元，环比增加 138.15%, 占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 37.61%。 发行期限方面，本周信用债整体的平均发行期限为 2.72 年，其中，产业债平均 发行期限为 2.24 年、城投债平均发行期限为 3.33 年、金融债平均发行期限为 1.8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The bond market is affected by the stock market, but the adjustment space is limited. Attention should be paid to stock market changes and fund duration to select the timing for increasing bond allocation [59] - Overall, during stock market rallies, government bond yields tend to move in sync with funds. If funds are generally loose, government bond yields show a long - term downward trend, with the term spread widening and the credit spread narrowing. In terms of fund diversion, household deposits often decrease year - on - year, bond fund shares may decline periodically but will recover in the later stage of the stock market growth. The scale of wealth management transferred to the stock market may be relatively limited, and the scale and proportion of insurance bond investment are expected to rise [4][58] Summary by Different Stock Market Rally Periods 2006 - 2007 Stock Market Rally - **Bond Market Performance**: Government bond yields rose significantly, fund prices increased, the term spread first narrowed, then widened, and then narrowed again, and the credit spread first narrowed and then widened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 1181 points at the beginning of 2006 to 6092 points in mid - October 2007. The 10 - year government bond yield rose from 3.1% to 4.5%, an increase of 139bps. R007 rose from 1.5% to a maximum of 7.1%. The government bond term spread first dropped from 140bp to 85bp in November 2006, then rose to 180bp at the end of June 2007, and then dropped to 122bp in mid - October 2007. The 1 - year medium - term note credit spread dropped from 138bp at the end of 2006 to 59bp in mid - August 2007 and then rose to 118bp in mid - October 2007 [1][8] - **Fund Diversion**: Household deposits decreased year - on - year, the shares of both stock - type and bond - type funds increased, and the balance of insurance bond investment rose. From the second quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of 2007, household deposits decreased by a cumulative 12857 billion yuan year - on - year. Stock - type fund shares increased from 1279 billion shares in January 2006 to 10112 billion shares in October 2007, an increase of 8833 billion shares. Bond - type fund shares increased by a cumulative 187 billion shares from 243 billion shares. The balance of insurance bond investment increased from 6600 billion yuan in December 2005 to 10420 billion yuan in June 2007, an increase of 3820 billion yuan [2][14][18] 2014 - 2015 Stock Market Rally - **Bond Market Performance**: Government bond yields decreased significantly, funds were generally loose, the term spread first narrowed and then widened, and the credit spread narrowed after fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2024 points in mid - June 2014 to 5166 points in mid - June 2015. The 10 - year government bond yield dropped from 4.0% to about 3.6%, a decrease of 42bps. R007 first rose from 3.2% to 6.4% in late December 2014 and then dropped to 2.1%. The government bond term spread first narrowed from 63bp to 19bp in mid - October 2014 and then widened to 194bp in mid - June 2015. The 3 - year medium - term note credit spread narrowed from 136bp to 116bp overall [2][25] - **Fund Diversion**: Household deposits decreased year - on - year, the shares of stock - type and bond - type funds changed in opposite directions, the balance and proportion of insurance bond investment decreased, and the scale of wealth management increased. From July 2014 to June 2015, household deposits decreased by a cumulative 22655 billion yuan year - on - year. Bond - type fund shares increased by a cumulative 456 billion shares, while stock - type fund shares increased by a cumulative 1605 billion shares. The balance of insurance bond investment decreased from 35636 billion yuan in June 2014 to 35532 billion yuan in June 2015, and the proportion of bond investment dropped from 41.48% to 34.27%. The scale of bank wealth management products increased from 12.65 trillion yuan in June 2014 to 18.52 trillion yuan in June 2015 [2][33] 2024 - 2025 Stock Market Rally - **Bond Market Performance**: Government bond yields rose, funds were generally loose, and both the term spread and credit spread widened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2863 points on September 24, 2024, to 3490 points on October 8, 2024, and then continued to fluctuate. From July 2025 to August 18, 2025, it rose from 3458 points to 3728 points. The 10 - year government bond yield first rose from 2.07% to 2.25%, then dropped rapidly to 1.60%, and since July 2025, it has been rising. R007 dropped from 2.03% on September 24, 2024, to 1.50% on August 18, 2025. During the two stock market rallies, the term spread widened by 16.5bp and 9.5bp respectively, and the 3 - year medium - term note credit spread widened by 21.5bp and 6.7bp respectively [2][42] - **Fund Diversion**: Household deposits decreased year - on - year, bond - type fund shares decreased, stock - type fund shares increased, the balance and proportion of insurance bond investment rose, and the balance of wealth management bond investment increased. In September 2024, household deposits decreased by 3257 billion yuan year - on - year, and in July 2025, they decreased by 7818 billion yuan year - on - year. Bond - type fund shares decreased by 7002 billion shares in October 2024, while stock - type fund shares increased by a cumulative 1319 billion shares in September and October 2024. The balance of life insurance company bond investment increased from 14.23 trillion yuan in September 2024 to 16.92 trillion yuan in June 2025, and the proportion increased from 49.18% to 51.90%. The balance of bank wealth management increased from 28.52 trillion yuan in June 2024 to 30.67 trillion yuan in June 2025, and the bond investment scale increased from 16.98 trillion yuan to 18.33 trillion yuan [3][50]

Overall Summary - **Report Period**: August 11 - August 17, 2025 [1][11] - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The issuance guidance rates from the Dealer Association showed a differentiated trend, with high - grade rates rising and medium - low - grade rates falling. Credit bond issuance volume decreased, and net financing turned negative. Secondary - market trading volume declined, yields rose, and credit spreads showed mixed trends. Currently, the allocation cost - effectiveness is low. In the long run, yields are in a downward channel, but due to high prices, the allocation pace can be slowed. For relative returns, credit - sinking and duration - stretching are not cost - effective, and high - grade short - term bonds can be considered for defense [1][60] 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - Total credit bonds issued 350 with an amount of 260.56 billion yuan, a 29.04% decrease from the previous period. Net financing was - 12.116 billion yuan, a decrease of 203.684 billion yuan [11] - Enterprise bonds had zero issuance with a net financing of - 16.575 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.059 billion yuan [11] - Corporate bonds issued 126 with an amount of 96.654 billion yuan, an 8.73% increase; net financing was 43.48 billion yuan, an increase of 10.703 billion yuan [11] - Medium - term notes issued 116 with an amount of 92.57 billion yuan, a 43.70% decrease; net financing was 20.422 billion yuan, a decrease of 92.531 billion yuan [11] - Short - term financing bills issued 91 with an amount of 61.219 billion yuan, a 39.28% decrease; net financing was - 52.858 billion yuan, a decrease of 104.478 billion yuan [11] - Private placement notes issued 17 with an amount of 9.613 billion yuan, a 22.10% decrease; net financing was - 6.585 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.319 billion yuan [11] 1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guidance rates from the Dealer Association showed a high - grade up and medium - low - grade down trend, with a change range of - 3 BP to 2 BP [1][15] - For 1 - year terms, the rate change was between - 1 BP and 2 BP; for 3 - year terms, between - 2 BP and 2 BP; for 5 - year terms, between - 3 BP and 2 BP; for 7 - year terms, between - 3 BP and 2 BP [15] - For key AAA and AAA grades, the rate change was between 0 BP and 2 BP; for AA + grade, between - 1 BP and 1 BP; for AA grade, between - 3 BP and - 1 BP; for AA - grade, between - 3 BP and - 2 BP [15] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Market Trading Volume - Total credit - bond trading volume was 775.373 billion yuan, a 7.29% decrease from the previous period [19] - Enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes' trading volumes decreased, while short - term financing bills and private placement notes' trading volumes increased [1][19] 2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, most credit spreads narrowed, especially for 5 - year terms, except for the 3 - year AAA - grade spread which widened [22][25] - For enterprise bonds, most credit spreads narrowed, especially for 5 - year terms, except for the 3 - year AA + grade which remained unchanged [29] - For urban investment bonds, credit spreads showed a differentiated trend. 1 - year and 5 - year spreads generally narrowed, while 3 - year and 7 - year spreads generally widened [1][39] 2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, 3Y - 1Y, 5Y - 3Y, and 7Y - 3Y term spreads widened. Rating spreads for 3 - year medium - and short - term notes generally narrowed [47] - For AA + enterprise bonds, 3Y - 1Y and 7Y - 3Y term spreads widened, 5Y - 3Y narrowed. Rating spreads for 3 - year enterprise bonds had mixed trends [52] - For AA + urban investment bonds, 3Y - 1Y and 7Y - 3Y term spreads widened, 5Y - 3Y narrowed. Rating spreads for 3 - year urban investment bonds had mixed trends [53] 3. Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment - No company rating (including outlook) adjustments during the period [58] 3.2 Default and Extension Bonds - No credit - bond defaults or extensions during the period [59] 4. Investment Views Credit Bonds - From an absolute - return perspective, supply shortages and strong allocation demand support credit bonds. Although fluctuations are inevitable, yields are in a downward channel in the long run. Due to high prices, the allocation pace can be slowed, and bonds can be added during adjustments. Pay attention to interest - rate bond trends and coupon values. Consider bonds of relevant entities underperforming in the Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF [1][60] - From a relative - return perspective, since rating spreads are at historical lows, credit - sinking and duration - stretching are not cost - effective. High - grade short - term bonds can be used for defense [1][60] Real Estate Bonds - With the real - estate market gradually stabilizing, high - risk - appetite funds can consider early layout, focusing on the balance between risk and return. Allocate to central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and high - quality private - enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. Long - term allocation can increase returns, and trading opportunities from undervalued real - estate bonds can be explored [2][62] Urban Investment Bonds - In the context of stable growth and prevention of systemic risks, the probability of urban investment bond defaults is low. They can still be a key allocation for credit bonds. The short - term credit risk is low, and the current strategy can be positive. However, during the process of local financing platform clearance and transformation, some urban investment bonds may face valuation fluctuations. Future opportunities in the reform and transformation of "entity - type" financing platforms can be monitored [2][62]

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近1月 2025 年以来 | | | 固收产品收益 | 含权债基>高等级同业存单指基>现金 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金> | | | 回顾 | 管理>短债基金>中长期借審 现金管理 > 中长期债基 近一个月,供给端"反内卷"和需求 | | | | 1 月偏强震荡,2 月-3 月中旬债市大幅回 端基建、民生政策落地,基本面修复 调,4月初债市快速走强后回归震荡,5月下 | | | 债市回顾 | 预期强化,市场风险偏好抬升,资金 | 旬小幅回调，6月回归震荡,7月以来有所回 | | | 面维持相对宽松。长债弱于短债，信 | | | | 用债弱于利率债。 | 调。 | | | | 1.财政部、税务总局明确自８月８日起,对新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券 | | 行业事件跟踪 | 利息收入恢复征收增值税。 | | | | | 2.近期多家头部保险公司宣布下调产品预定利率，将于 8 月 31 日前完成产品切换。 | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个 ...

Group 1 - Credit bond yields have generally risen, with financial bond spreads widening more than non-financial credit bonds. The 5-year and 7-year spreads for lower-rated bonds narrowed significantly, by 4-8 basis points [2][10] - The 3-year financial bonds saw a notable widening in spreads, particularly for perpetual bonds, with 3-year spreads widening by 3-4 basis points [2][10] - The overall turnover rate of credit bonds decreased from 1.99% to 1.93%, indicating a decline in market activity. The weighted average transaction duration for all credit bonds fell from 3.1 years to 3.0 years [3][10] Group 2 - Institutional behavior shows an increased allocation to credit bonds by wealth management and insurance sectors, while funds have reduced their holdings in secondary capital bonds. Wealth management has focused on increasing positions in bonds with maturities of one year or less [4][10] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with a recommendation to prioritize defensive strategies. It is suggested to adopt a short-duration strategy to enhance returns while maintaining portfolio stability [5][10] Group 3 - The average yield for city investment bonds with an implied rating of AA- and above is 2.12%, with significant variations across provinces. High-yield city investment bonds are concentrated in longer-term bonds [13][17] - The average yield for industrial bonds with an implied rating of AA- and above is 1.90%, with the textile and social services sectors showing higher yields [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, most credit spreads of different industries and ratings narrowed to varying degrees this week, while a few industries' credit spreads widened. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds fluctuated slightly, the 3Y industrial bond credit spreads adjusted significantly, and the AA medium - long - end spreads decreased. The 3Y bank secondary perpetual bond credit spreads widened significantly, and the spreads of other maturities widened slightly [3][39]. - The report continues to expect the 10Y Treasury yield to be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year. After the recent pull - back, the 10Y Treasury is close to 1.75%, with prominent cost - effectiveness. The report is bullish on the 10Y Treasury yield returning to around 1.65%, and the 5Y national and joint - stock secondary capital bonds falling below 1.9%. The growth of wealth management scale is beneficial to credit bonds. It is bullish on long - duration and credit - sinking urban investment and capital bonds, urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds, strongly recommends perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks, and suggests paying attention to capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [3][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) this week was 16.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 298 billion yuan compared with last week. The total issuance was 323.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 175 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 306.6 billion yuan, an increase of 122.9 billion yuan [7]. - The net financing of asset - backed securities this week was 27.8 billion yuan, an increase of 17 billion yuan compared with last week [7]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 35.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 40.2 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 17.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 131.4 billion yuan; the net financing of financial bonds was - 36.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 126.4 billion yuan [7]. - In terms of issuance and redemption quantity, the issuance of urban investment bonds decreased by 21, and the redemption increased by 32; the issuance of industrial bonds decreased by 50, and the redemption increased by 39; the issuance of financial bonds decreased by 10, and the redemption increased by 14 [9]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - The weighted average issuance rate of AA industrial bonds increased significantly this week, while the issuance costs of other bond types were below 2.5%. The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds increased by 61BP compared with last week, mainly due to the "25 Xiangqiao Bond" [17]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Transaction Volume and Turnover - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 15.8 billion yuan compared with last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 217 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.8 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 341 billion yuan, an increase of 9.4 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 384.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.4 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 18.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3 billion yuan [18]. - The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated slightly compared with last week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.39%, a decrease of 0.07pct; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 1.88%, an increase of 0.04pct; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 2.59%, a decrease of 0.09pct; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.5%, an increase of 0.24pct [18]. 3.2.2 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different maturities increased to varying degrees this week, and the adjustment range of medium - long - term bonds was greater than that of short - term bonds. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds within 1Y increased by 2BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively; those of 3 - 5Y increased by 5BP; and those of over 10Y increased by 3 - 5BP [20][21]. - Taking AA + 5Y bonds of each type as an example, the yields of different types of bonds increased to varying degrees. For industrial bonds, the yields of privately - issued and perpetual industrial bonds increased by 6BP and 7BP respectively; for urban investment bonds, the yield of AA + 5Y urban investment bonds increased by 4BP; for financial bonds, the yields of commercial bank ordinary bonds and secondary capital bonds increased by 7BP and 8BP respectively; for asset - backed securities, the yield of AA + 5Y asset - backed securities increased by 6BP [22]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, most credit spreads of different industries and ratings narrowed to varying degrees this week, while a few industries' credit spreads widened. For example, the credit spread of AA non - bank finance widened by 6BP, and that of AA building materials narrowed by 6BP; the credit spreads of AA + electrical equipment and textile and apparel widened by 6BP and 17BP respectively, and that of AA + non - bank finance narrowed by 7BP. The fluctuations of other industries' and ratings' bond credit spreads did not exceed 5BP [2][24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities fluctuated slightly. The 0.5 - 1Y credit spread compressed by less than 1BP, the 1 - 3Y spread widened by 1BP, the 3 - 5Y spread compressed by 1BP, the 5 - 10Y spread compressed by 1BP, and the over 10Y spread compressed by 2BP. Regionally, the fluctuations of urban investment credit spreads were within 5BP. For example, the AA credit spread in Shaanxi compressed by 5BP, and the AA + credit spread in Hebei compressed by 5BP [29][30]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The 3Y industrial bond credit spreads adjusted significantly this week, and the AA medium - long - end spreads decreased. The credit spreads of 3Y AAA -, AA +, and AA private and perpetual industrial bonds widened to varying degrees, while the 5Y and 10Y AA private and perpetual industrial bond credit spreads compressed [33]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The 3Y bank secondary perpetual bond credit spreads widened significantly this week, and the spreads of other maturities widened slightly [35]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - 26 bond implicit ratings were downgraded this week, including 10 by Joy City Holdings Group Co., Ltd., 10 by Shanghai Waigaoqiao Group Co., Ltd., 4 by Chongqing Yerui Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., and 2 by Zhengxinglong Real Estate (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. The "20 Huaxia EB" issued by China Fortune Land Development Holdings Co., Ltd. was extended [36]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The report continues to expect the 10Y Treasury yield to be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year. After the recent pull - back, the 10Y Treasury is close to 1.75%, with prominent cost - effectiveness. It is bullish on the 10Y Treasury yield returning to around 1.65%, and the 5Y national and joint - stock secondary capital bonds falling below 1.9%. The growth of wealth management scale is beneficial to credit bonds [3][40]. - It is bullish on long - duration and credit - sinking urban investment and capital bonds, urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds, strongly recommends perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks, and suggests paying attention to capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Credit bonds adjusted following interest rates, with medium - to long - term high - grade bonds having a larger upward amplitude. Credit spreads mostly declined, with medium - to long - end low - grade varieties having a larger compression amplitude [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads had limited changes, with spreads of external rating AAA and AA+ platforms generally up 1BP compared to last week, and AA - rated platforms remaining flat [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined overall, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds significantly decreased. Central and state - owned enterprise real estate bond spreads remained flat, while mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped 15BP and private real estate bond spreads rose 7BP [2][17]. - Perpetual and secondary capital (Two - Yong) bonds performed weakly with rising spreads, and the yields of 3 - 5 - year high - grade varieties significantly increased [2][29]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds increased, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds narrowed [2][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Credit Bonds Adjusted Following Interest Rates, with Medium - to Long - Term High - Grade Bonds Having a Larger Upward Amplitude - Affected by the rising equity market and policies such as discount interest and state - owned enterprise purchases, interest - rate bonds weakened significantly this week. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased by 3BP, 4BP, 8BP, 7BP, and 8BP respectively [5]. - Credit bond yields also increased, with medium - to long - term high - grade varieties having a larger upward amplitude. For example, the yield of 1Y AAA - rated credit bonds increased by 2BP, and the yields of other grades increased by 3BP [5]. - Credit spreads mostly declined, with medium - to long - end low - grade varieties having a larger compression amplitude. Rating spreads and term spreads showed differentiation [5]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads Had Narrow Fluctuations - The spreads of external rating AAA and AA+ urban investment platforms generally increased by 1BP compared to last week, and AA - rated platforms remained flat. Most platform spreads changed within 1BP [9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial and municipal platforms generally remained flat, while the credit spreads of district - county platforms increased by 1BP [14]. 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads Slightly Declined, and the Spreads of Mixed - Ownership Real Estate Bonds Significantly Decreased - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined overall. Central and state - owned enterprise real estate bond spreads remained flat, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped 15BP due to events such as state - owned enterprise purchases, and private real estate bond spreads rose 7BP [17]. - The spreads of AAA and AA+ coal bonds decreased by 1BP respectively, and the spreads of AA - rated coal bonds remained flat. The spreads of AAA - rated steel bonds remained flat, and the spreads of AA+ - rated steel bonds decreased by 1BP. The spreads of all grades of chemical bonds decreased by 1BP [17]. 3.4 Two - Yong Bonds Performed Weakly with Rising Spreads, and the Yields of 3 - 5 - Year High - Grade Varieties Significantly Increased - This week, Two - Yong bonds performed weakly with rising spreads, and overall they performed worse than ordinary credit bond varieties. The yields of 3 - 5 - year high - grade varieties significantly increased [29]. - For 1Y bonds, the yields of all grades of secondary capital bonds increased by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads compressed by 0 - 1BP; the yields of all grades of perpetual bonds increased by 4BP, and the spreads increased by 1BP [29]. 3.5 The Excess Spreads of Industrial Perpetual Bonds Increased, and the Excess Spreads of Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Narrowed - This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA - rated 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 2.76BP to 10.17BP, at the 15.70% quantile since 2015. The excess spreads of industrial AAA - rated 5Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.01BP to 11.83BP, at the 23.40% quantile since 2015 [31]. - The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decreased by 1.82BP to 3.34BP, at the 0.29% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 3.40BP to 7.51BP, at the 3.67% quantile [31]. 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Two - Yong spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term bill and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [38]. - The credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated by subtracting the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by linear interpolation) from the ChinaBond valuation (exercise) of individual bonds, and then the industry or regional urban investment credit spreads are obtained by the arithmetic average method [38].