点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 产业债方面，2025年9月，我国产业债成交量为12677.1亿元，环比和同比均有所减少。2025年9月产业债 换手率为8.35%。2025年9月，我国各等级产业主体的信用债信用利差较上月均有所走阔。 风险提示： 数据统计口径不同；部分行业基本面恢复速度较慢，流动性恶化的前提下，债券违约风险可能 超出预期；若相关政策收紧，需要警惕再融资滚续压力，资质较差的主体风险暴露速度将加快。 发布日期：2025-10-09 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 1、信用债发行与到期 城投债方面，截至2025年9月末，我国存量城投债余额为15.31万亿元。2025年9月的城投债发行量达 5039.05亿元，环比增长0.84%，同比增长9.78%；2025年9月的城投主体净融资额为-105. ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 产业债发行规模持续增长，信用利差保持走阔态势 ——信用债月度观察（2025.09） 要点 1、 信用债发行与到期 整体来看，截至 2025 年 9 月末，我国存量信用债余额为 30.49 万亿元。2025 年 9 月 1 日-9 月 30 日，信用债共发行 12355.38 亿元，月环比增长 10.27%； 总偿还额 10956.49 亿元，净融资 1398.89 亿元。 城投债方面，截至 2025 年 9 月末，我国存量城投债余额为 15.31 万亿元。2025 年 9 月的城投债发行量达 5039.05 亿元，环比增长 0.84%，同比增长 9.78%； 2025 年 9 月的城投主体净融资额为-105.01 亿元。 总量研究 产业债方面，截至 2025 年 9 月末，我国存量产业债（狭义口径信用债中的非城 投债部分）余额为 15.18 万亿元。2025 年 9 月的产业债发行量达 7316.33 亿元， 环比增长 17.85%，同比增长 15.04%；2025年9月的产业主体净融资额为 1503.9 亿元。 2、信用债成交与利差 城投债方面，2025 年 9 月，我国城投 ...

信用季度 | 利差难压，等待下行 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2025.10.09 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 孟万林 SAC 证书编号：S0160525030002 mengwl@ctsec.com 分析师 涂靖靖 SAC 证书编号：S0160525030001 tujj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《假期高频 | 十一期间海内外有哪些变 化？ 》 2025-10-07 2. 《重视股性，兼顾结构机会——四季度 转债策略》 2025-10-06 3. 《利率 | 9 月宏观数据怎么看？》 2025-10-05 核心观点 ❖ 三季度债市主要受反内卷政策、股市及基金赎回新规等影响，持续上行。三 季度调整呈现出长端调整多、短端调整少，信用低等级调整少、高等级调整 略多，二永债调整多、普信债调整较少的特点。从投资回报来看，2 年及以 内信用债表现较好，3 年及以上投资回报多为负。 ❖ 还会延续跌势吗？ 三季度债市上行中，外部政策扰动较多，规上企业利润等数据也出现了一些 边际影响，目前利率或已经充分定价政策和基本面的扰动。整体来看 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the cost - effectiveness of the coupon strategy is further enhanced against the backdrop of high uncertainty in the bond market direction. The 1 - 3 - year weak - qualification urban investment sinking strategy is recommended, and the yields of 1 - 2 - year AA(2), 2 - 3 - year AA, and AA(2) urban investment bonds are between 2.09% - 2.32%, with a large balance of outstanding bonds. Second, the super - decline feature of secondary perpetual (Er Yong) bonds is obvious, and the yields of 3 - year large - bank capital bonds and 2 - year AA perpetual bonds are between 2.0% - 2.07%, having fallen to a level with coupon value. The 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds have a large decline in this round of adjustment, and the current yields are all above 2.1%, which are high - quality coupon assets for accounts with stable liability ends. For ultra - long - term bonds, although the cost - effectiveness of coupons continues to increase after adjustment, the liquidity has not seen marginal improvement, and it is still only recommended for allocation - type institutions to consider [3][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Current Bond Market Situation - Last week, the bearish force in the bond market remained strong, but with the bond - buying by large banks and the central bank's liquidity support, interest rates generally stabilized, while the decline of credit bonds was relatively high, especially for Er Yong bonds and ultra - long - term credit bonds, showing an "over - decline" trend. From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, 5Y treasury bonds decreased by 0.7BP, increased by 2.7BP, 2.8BP, 1.8BP, 0.5BP respectively, while the yields of AAA medium - term notes with the same maturities increased by 5.3BP, 6.5BP, 6.8BP, 9.0BP, 9.7BP respectively [1][10]. - The performance of ultra - long - term credit bonds continued to weaken, with the decline exceeding that of the same - maturity interest - rate bonds. The yields of 10Y AAA/AA + medium - term notes increased by 11.32BP and 10.32BP respectively, and the yields of 10Y AAA/AA + urban investment bonds increased by 11.90BP and 8.90BP respectively. The yield of 10Y AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 16.19BP, while the yield of 10Y treasury bonds recovered by 0.21BP [1][12][13]. - The "volatility amplifier" feature of Er Yong bonds reappeared, with the decline of each maturity exceeding that of ordinary credit bonds. The yields of 1 - 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 5.15BP, 8.94BP, 11.60BP, 12.29BP, 17.93BP, 18.31BP, 16.19BP respectively. The part of the curve above 2 - year is still 30BP - 63BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025, and the yields of maturities above 3 - year have exceeded the levels of the bear - flattening period in the first quarter [2][17]. Analysis of Trading Behavior - In terms of active trading, the bearish force of Er Yong bonds was strong overall, with the selling force of trading desks stronger than the buying force of allocation desks. From September 22 to September 26, the proportion of low - valuation transactions of Er Yong bonds was 92.50%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 10.00%, 100.00% respectively. Last week, trading desks represented by public funds strongly sold Er Yong bonds and only had net purchases of short - term credit products. At the same time, allocation desks such as wealth management and insurance institutions bought oversold Er Yong bonds at high prices, but the buying force was weaker than the selling force of public funds [2][19][20]. - The selling market of ultra - long - term credit bonds continued to strengthen throughout the week. From September 22 to September 26, the proportion of discount transactions of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 65.00%, 72.50%, 95.00%, 100.00%, 75.00% respectively. The discount range was not low, and about 25.5% of the discount transactions had a range of more than 4BP, indicating a strong selling willingness in the market [22]. Comparison of the Two Rounds of Bond Market Adjustments in 2025 - The bond market adjustment in the first quarter was mainly driven by the unexpected tightening of the capital market, resulting in weaker performance of the short - and medium - term credit bonds. The yields of 1 - 5 - year AAA urban investment bonds increased by more than 40bp, while the yields of long - term bonds increased by less than 35bp [26][29]. - The bond market adjustment since mid - July in the third quarter was mainly due to the strong performance of the commodity and equity markets, which increased institutional risk appetite. Institutions were very cautious about duration, and short - duration bonds had strong anti - decline properties. From July 18 to September 29, the yield increase of 1 - year urban investment bonds was within 15bp, while the yields of AAA and AA + urban investment bonds with maturities of 7 - year and above increased by more than 40bp [26][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's four measures will promote the internationalization of the offshore RMB bond market, enhance the willingness of overseas funds to allocate and market liquidity, and inject lasting impetus into the internationalization of the bond market [2][9][10] - In August, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises above the national level increased significantly year - on - year, driving the cumulative profit growth rate from January to August to turn positive, indicating a gradual recovery of micro - entity vitality [3][11][12] - In the money market, due to the approaching National Day holiday and end - of - quarter disturbances, most capital prices rose, and the central bank conducted net capital injections through open - market operations [4][14] - In the primary market of credit bonds, the issuance scale increased significantly last week, with different performance among industries and fluctuations in issuance costs [5][17] - In the secondary market of credit bonds, trading activity increased, bond yields mostly rose, credit spreads widened across the board, and rating spreads changed slightly [6][30] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspots - On September 25th, the central bank announced four measures to accelerate the development of the offshore RMB market, including supporting overseas institutional investors' participation in the repurchase business of the domestic bond market, expanding the "Swap Connect" quotation dealer team and increasing the daily north - bound trading quota, increasing the supply of RMB assets such as treasury bonds in the Hong Kong market, and accelerating the listing of RMB treasury bond futures in Hong Kong. These measures will form a complete closed - loop of "asset supply - trading convenience - risk hedging" [2][9] Macroeconomic Data - In August, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises above the national level increased by 20.4% year - on - year, driving the cumulative profit growth rate from January to August to turn from - 1.7% in January - July to 0.9%. Low base in the same period of 2024, "anti - involution" policies, and effective cost control contributed to this improvement. In terms of industries, the equipment manufacturing and raw material manufacturing industries performed well. At the enterprise level, private, medium - sized, and small enterprises showed good profit growth [3][11][12] Money Market - Last week, the central bank conducted a net capital injection of 1122.3 billion yuan through open - market operations. Affected by the approaching National Day holiday and end - of - quarter disturbances, most capital prices rose. Except for the 1 - day pledged repurchase rate, which decreased by 15bp, other term pledged repurchase rates increased by 2 - 18bp. The 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor slightly increased, and the spread between them narrowed [4][14] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased significantly last week, reaching 447.423 billion yuan, with an average daily issuance scale of 89.485 billion yuan. The cancellation scale of issuance also increased. In terms of bond types, the issuance scale of ultra - short - term financing bills and medium - term notes increased significantly. In terms of industries, the infrastructure investment and financing industry and the power production and supply industry in the industrial bond sector had large increases in issuance scale. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net capital outflow, while the power production and transportation industries in the industrial bond sector had large net inflows, and the light manufacturing industry had a large net outflow. The average issuance cost of credit bonds fluctuated, with changes ranging from 1bp to 59bp [5][17][26] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - The trading volume of cash bonds in the secondary market last week was 9387.09 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume increase of 2.5216 billion yuan. Trading activity continued to rise. Bond yields mostly rose. For interest - rate bonds, the yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds mostly increased, with a maximum increase of 5bp, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield remained stable at 1.88%. For credit bonds, yields increased by 3 - 12bp. Credit spreads widened by 5 - 12bp across the board, and rating spreads changed within 3bp [6][30] Appendix - The report lists bond market credit risk events, including bond defaults, extensions, etc. of several companies [42] - It also summarizes regulatory and market innovation dynamics, such as policies to support digital consumption, sports industry, and debt financing of mature - layer enterprises, as well as measures to optimize market mechanisms and simplify procedures [43][44] - The monthly net financing amounts of major credit bond types from January 2024 to August 2025 are presented [45]

Group 1 - David Tepper expressed concerns about current valuations, indicating a shift in sentiment compared to his previous preference for Chinese assets [1][2] - As of Q2 2025, Appaloosa Management held approximately $6.45 billion in U.S. equities, with Alibaba representing over 12% of the portfolio, while increasing Nvidia's position significantly [1][2] - Tepper highlighted the risks associated with multiple interest rate cuts, suggesting that a weakening dollar and rising inflation could disrupt market stability [2][3] Group 2 - Tepper noted that while Chinese companies have attractive price-to-earnings ratios, the uncertainty surrounding policies and liquidity poses significant risks [2][3] - He advised investors to diversify their portfolios and not to concentrate too heavily on any single investment, especially in the context of potential policy fluctuations [3][4] - Tepper's cautious approach reflects a balance between recognizing opportunities in Chinese assets and the historical lessons learned from past market volatility [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in China has entered a bull market in 2024, driven by weak economic conditions, moderate monetary policy easing, and reduced bank funding costs, leading to declining interest rates and narrowing credit spreads [1][2][8]. Bond Market Performance Interest Rate Bonds - Since the beginning of 2024, the bond market has shown a bull market trend, with the 1-year government bond yield dropping to a low of 0.9307% on December 23, 2024, the lowest since June 3, 2009 [2][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield reached a historical low of 1.5958% on February 7, 2025, indicating a low interest rate environment [2][4]. Credit Bonds - The scale of credit bond defaults has continued to decline in 2024, with a notable decrease in the proportion of defaults from real estate companies and AAA-rated bonds [5][6]. - The number of defaulting companies decreased from 37 in 2021 to 23 in 2024, and the default scale dropped from 1,076 billion to 241 billion [6]. Factors Driving Bond Yield Decline - Economic slowdown is evident, with the manufacturing PMI below 50 for nine months, indicating weak production [8][9]. - Monetary policy has become more accommodative, with two interest rate cuts totaling 30 basis points and two reserve requirement ratio cuts of 1 percentage point in 2024 [8][9]. - The cost of bank liabilities has decreased due to various policy measures, increasing demand for bond investments [8][9]. - Institutional demand for bonds has surged amid a weak stock market and ample liquidity, leading to significant bond purchases [9][10]. Outlook for the Bond Market Interest Rate Bonds - The bond market may experience increased volatility due to ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and potential government policies aimed at stabilizing growth [11][12]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds is expected to increase, with a total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new government debt planned for 2025 [11][12]. Credit Bonds - The default rate for credit bonds is expected to remain low, particularly in the real estate sector, due to improved sales and financing conditions [20][21]. - Credit spreads are likely to narrow, but the potential for further compression is limited due to already low levels [22]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors should closely monitor the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit rates as they significantly influence the 10-year government bond yields [24][25]. - A strategy to go long on short-term bonds is recommended, as the yield curve is expected to steepen [26]. - Identifying structural opportunities in credit spreads is crucial, focusing on liquidity risk management and sector rotation [27]. - Enhancing trading capabilities and utilizing derivatives for hedging, along with diversifying into fixed-income-like assets, can optimize portfolio performance [28].

—— 信用利差周度跟踪 20250926 利率调整中信用利差大幅走高 二永债升幅较普信债更大 歌声ue 证券研究报告 3利率调整中信用利差大幅走高 二永债升幅较普信债更大 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 9 月 27 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 邮 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the overall credit spreads of various industries rose [1] - The total trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, with commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes ranking among the top three in trading volume [4] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - 501 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 584.503 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% [1][11] - Industrial bonds: 200 were issued, with an issuance scale of 264.684 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 30.71%, accounting for 45.28% of the total issuance scale of credit bonds this week [1][11] - Urban investment bonds: 253 were issued, with an issuance scale of 159.939 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.21%, accounting for 27.36% of the total issuance scale of credit bonds this week [1][11] - Financial bonds: 48 were issued, with an issuance scale of 159.880 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 32.29%, accounting for 27.35% of the total issuance scale of credit bonds this week [1][11] - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.71 years, with industrial bonds at 2.22 years, urban investment bonds at 3.31 years, and financial bonds at 1.88 years [1][14] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.33%, with industrial bonds at 2.19%, urban investment bonds at 2.53%, and financial bonds at 1.91% [2][19] 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - 13 credit bonds cancelled their issuance this week [22] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - The overall industry credit spreads rose this week. Among Shenwan primary industries, the largest increase in AAA - rated industry credit spreads was in machinery and equipment (9BP), and the largest decrease was in media (3.1BP); the largest increase in AA + - rated industry credit spreads was in steel (44.2BP), and the largest decrease was in chemicals (1BP); the largest increase in AA - rated industry credit spreads was in electronics (7.9BP), and the largest decrease was in machinery and equipment (3.2BP) [3][24] - The credit spreads of coal and steel both increased. The credit spreads of AAA - and AA + - rated coal increased by 6.2BP and 6.3BP respectively; the credit spreads of AAA - and AA + - rated steel increased by 4.9BP and 44.2BP respectively [24] - The credit spreads of urban investment and non - urban investment at all levels increased. The credit spreads of three - level urban investment bonds increased by 7.2BP, 6.7BP, and 7.5BP respectively; the credit spreads of three - level non - urban investment bonds increased by 6.4BP, 6.1BP, and 5.9BP respectively [24] - The credit spreads of state - owned enterprises and private enterprises both increased. The credit spreads of three - level central state - owned enterprises increased by 5.6BP, 4.4BP, and 7.1BP respectively; the credit spreads of three - level local state - owned enterprises increased by 6BP, 6.1BP, and 6.5BP respectively; the credit spreads of three - level private enterprises increased by 5.3BP, 5.7BP, and 3.8BP respectively [26] - The credit spreads of regional urban investment bonds showed mixed trends. The regions with the highest AAA - rated credit spreads were Shaanxi, Liaoning, and Jilin; the regions with the highest AA + - rated credit spreads were Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu; the regions with the highest AA - rated credit spreads were Shaanxi, Yunnan, and Sichuan. In terms of month - on - month changes, the largest increase in AAA - rated credit spreads was in Jilin (15.6BP); the largest increase in AA + - rated credit spreads was in Hebei (10.2BP), and the largest decrease was in Ningxia (2.6BP); the largest increase in AA - rated credit spreads was in Sichuan (11.8BP), and the largest decrease was in Shaanxi (0.1BP) [27] 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1.617515 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 10.61%. The top three in trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds was 487.807 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.68%, accounting for 30.16% of the total trading volume of credit bonds this week; the trading volume of corporate bonds was 496.120 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 14.83%, accounting for 30.67% of the total trading volume of credit bonds this week; the trading volume of medium - term notes was 32.3965 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4.08%, accounting for 20.03% of the total trading volume of credit bonds this week [4][28] 2.3 This Week's Actively Traded Bonds - The top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week are provided for investors' reference [30]

Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - In the first three quarters of 2025, the bond market yield showed an "N"-shaped trend. Credit bond yields fluctuated similarly to government bond yields, with overall wide - range volatile upward movement. Credit spreads first narrowed and then widened slightly. Default risk continued to decline, with default entities concentrated in real - estate bonds, mainly private enterprises. The amount of credit bonds with a downgraded implied rating in the ChinaBond market increased year - on - year, while the amount of upgraded ones was lower than the same period last year [9][37][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Valuation Curve: Yields Fluctuated Widely and Rose - As of September 23, 2025, the yields of 1 - year Treasury bonds, 10 - year Treasury bonds, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds changed by 30BP, 20BP, and 30BP respectively. The yields of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - changed by 22BP, 13BP, 8BP, and - 25BP respectively. The credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - narrowed by 11BP, 21BP, 26BP, and 59BP respectively. Overall, the yields of medium - short - term and long - term interest - rate bonds and most credit bonds increased, and the credit spreads of various varieties narrowed, with lower - grade and shorter - term credit spreads narrowing more. The 10 - 1 curve flattened [10]. Treasury Bond Yields Presented an "N"-shaped Trend - **January - mid - March**: At the beginning of the year, the central bank suspended Treasury bond trading and reduced open - market investment to stabilize the exchange rate. The tightened capital led to an upward trend in bond market yields. After the Two Sessions, the market adjusted its expectations, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield reached a high of 1.90% [11][12]. - **Late March - April**: The capital became looser, and the Sino - US tariff "tug - of - war" began. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped to the 1.63% - 1.67% range [16]. - **May - early July**: In early May, the central bank's RRR cut and interest rate cut, along with positive results from tariff negotiations, led to a slight increase in long - end interest - rate bond yields. In June, the central bank's reverse - repurchase operations improved the capital situation, and bond yields fluctuated downward [16]. - **Mid - July - September**: The "anti - involution" policy raised inflation expectations, the equity market strengthened, and the bond market was suppressed. Bond yields rose, but short - end yields were stable, resulting in a "bear steep" pattern [16]. Credit Spreads - Credit Spreads of All Grades First Narrowed and Then Widened - **January - mid - March**: At the beginning of January, interest - rate bonds quickly adjusted upward, and credit spreads were passively narrowed. Before the Two Sessions, the market expected an RRR cut and interest rate cut, and credit spreads widened briefly. After the Two Sessions, credit spreads narrowed rapidly again [17]. - **Late March - April**: The bond market recovered quickly, and credit spreads widened slightly [17]. - **May**: Credit spreads narrowed to the lowest point of the year due to the implementation of monetary policy tools and looser capital [17]. - **June - early July**: Short - end Treasury bond yields declined, and credit spreads first widened slightly and then narrowed [17]. - **Mid - July - September**: The bond market adjusted, and credit spreads widened slightly [17]. The Risk of Downgraded Implied Rating in the ChinaBond Market Increased - In the first three quarters of 2025, the amount of credit bonds with a downgraded implied rating in the ChinaBond market was 764.1 billion, a significant year - on - year increase. The amount of upgraded credit bonds was 358 billion, significantly lower than the same period last year. The proportion of urban investment bonds in the upgraded and downgraded samples decreased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [21]. Default: Default Risk Decreased, and the Default Rate of Real - Estate Bonds Declined - In the first three quarters of 2025, there were 3 new first - time default issuers. According to the broad default definition, the default amount was 6 billion, and the default rate was 0.01%, with the annualized default rate decreasing significantly compared to previous years. Default entities were mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds, mostly private enterprises. The real - estate bond default rate was 0.2%, and the default scale and annualized default rate decreased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The private enterprise default rate was 0.5%, and the annualized default rate continued to decline quarter - on - quarter [24][31]. Recovery Rate Remained Low - In the first three quarters of 2025, defaulted bonds recovered 20.76 billion in principal. From 2014 to the present, defaulted bonds have repaid 124.7 billion in principal, and the repayment rate of overdue principal was 11.9% [34].