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罕见!一则利空,突袭巴菲特
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-28 10:46
Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's stock has underperformed compared to major U.S. indices, with a year-to-date increase of less than 8% against the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500's gains of 11.75%, 22.41%, and 16.89% respectively [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance and Ratings - Berkshire's A-class shares fell by 0.79% to $732,650, while B-class shares dropped by 0.50% [1][2] - KBW downgraded Berkshire's rating to "underperform" and lowered the A-class target price from $740,000 to $700,000, citing leadership transition risks and various business headwinds [1][2][3] - Since the announcement of management changes in May, Berkshire's A-class shares have lagged the S&P 500 by over 28 percentage points [3] Group 2: Business Challenges - The decline in auto insurance profit margins, tariff pressures, decreasing interest rates, and reduced clean energy tax credits are expected to negatively impact Berkshire's stock price [2][3] - Berkshire's BNSF Railway is vulnerable to rising tariffs and declining trade volumes from Asia, affecting its growth prospects [3] - The decrease in interest rates will reduce the returns on Berkshire's substantial cash reserves of $344.1 billion [3] Group 3: Leadership Transition - Warren Buffett, aged 95, plans to step down as CEO in January, with Greg Abel set to take over, although Buffett will remain as chairman [2][4] - The transition in leadership is seen as a potential drag on investor confidence due to Buffett's unique reputation and the perceived inadequacies in current disclosure mechanisms [3][4] Group 4: Recent Acquisitions - Berkshire's recent acquisition of Occidental Petroleum's chemical subsidiary for $9.7 billion is viewed as a significant transaction, possibly marking Buffett's last major deal [4][5] - The acquisition utilized less than 3% of Berkshire's cash reserves, indicating limited impact on overall profitability [5] - Berkshire holds a 28% stake in Occidental Petroleum and has additional preferred shares, generating an 8% annual dividend [6]