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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20251106
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 01:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The ongoing government shutdown continues to affect liquidity [2][4]. - Silver: Expected to rebound with oscillations [2][5]. - Copper: Lacks clear drivers, with prices expected to oscillate [2][9]. - Zinc: Expected to trade within a range [2][12]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2][16]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][19]. - Aluminum: Expected to perform strongly [2][23]. - Alumina: Expected to rebound from the bottom [2][23]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel: Constrained by inventory accumulation at the smelting end, supported by uncertainties at the mine end [2][25]. - Stainless steel: Steel prices are expected to oscillate narrowly at a low level [2][25]. 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 912.26 with a daily decline of 0.36% and a night - session increase of 0.63% to 916.38; Comex Gold 2512 rose 1.25% to 3990.40 [5]. - **Trend Strength**: Gold trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]. Silver - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 11276 with a daily increase of 0.33% and a night - session increase of 1.58% to 11381; Comex Silver 2512 rose 2.06% [5]. - **Trend Strength**: Silver trend strength is - 1, indicating a weak - bearish view [7]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 85670 with a daily decline of 0.08% and a night - session increase of 0.27% to 85900; LME Copper 3M rose 0.79% to 10733 [9]. - **Industry News**: Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental permits for a new $1.7 billion copper smelter; Indonesia granted Amman Mineral International a 400,000 - ton copper concentrate export quota; Chile's September copper production was 456,663 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month and down 4.5% year - on - year; Glencore plans to close its Canadian smelter and refinery [9][11]. - **Trend Strength**: Copper trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22650 with a daily decline of 0.09%; LME Zinc 3M closed at 3077.5 with a decline of 0.98% [12]. - **Trend Strength**: Zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 17475 with a daily increase of 0.34%; LME Lead 3M closed at 2021 with a decline of 0.44% [16]. - **Trend Strength**: Lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 282090 with a daily decline of 0.58% and a night - session increase of 0.28% to 282820; LME Tin 3M rose 0.21% to 35745 [19]. - **Trend Strength**: Tin trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 21395, Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2772, and the aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20830 [23]. - **Industry News**: US employment showed signs of stabilization; the US October ISM services PMI rebounded strongly [24]. - **Trend Strength**: Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy trend strengths are all 0, indicating neutral views [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120030, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12535 [25]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over by the forestry working group; China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia; Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies; Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China [25][26][27]. - **Trend Strength**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend strengths are both 0, indicating neutral views [27].