| 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） | linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金2508 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2508 | 沪银2512 | 现价 | 774.72 | 778.98 | 8931.00 | 8976.00 | | | | | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 774.88 | 778.80 | 8919.00 | 8964.00 | 货 | 涨跌 | -0.16 | 0.18 | 12.00 | 12.00 | | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 场 | 持仓量 | 93922 | 85287 | 250718 | 185262 | | | | 成交量 | 53073 | 24526 | 385997 | 49501 | ...

20250704申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 沪金2508 沪金2512 沪银2508 沪银2512 现价 773.00 777.22 8916.00 8962.00 前收盘价 778.92 783.02 8944.00 8989.00 涨跌 -5.92 -5.80 -28.00 -27.00 涨跌幅 -0.76% -0.74% -0.31% -0.30% 持仓量 98320 84854 272055 185296 成交量 53873 19346 427766 68241 现货升贴水 2.81 -1.41 13.00 -33.00 上海黄金T+D 伦敦金 伦敦金 (美元/盎司) 上海白银T+D 伦敦银 (美元/盎司) 前日收盘价 775.81 766.91 3326.085 8929.00 36.83 涨跌 5.48 -6.09 -30.845 192.00 0.28 涨跌幅 0.71% -0.79% -0.92% 2.20% 0.77% 沪金2512- 沪金2506 沪银2512- 沪银2506 黄金/白银 (现货) 上海金/伦敦金 上海银/伦敦 银 现值 4.22 46 86.89 7.25 7.54 前 ...

20250703申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 美国6月ADP就业人数意外减少3.3万人，自2023年3月以来首次负增长，预期为增长9.8万人，5 月份数据在向下修正后仅增加2.9万人。服务业就业在6月份减少6.6万个就业岗位，遭遇自疫情 以来的最大降幅。美国利率期货完全消化美联储9月降息预期。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在布鲁塞尔会见中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅。王毅说，即将 举行的中欧领导人会晤是关键节点举行的一次重要会晤。中方期待同欧方总结中欧关系过去50 年发展的有益经验和重要启示，规划未来50年对话合作的前景，对外发出清晰、正面和积极的 信号。中国坚持高质量发展、高水平开放，愿同欧方一道，坚持伙伴定位，深化经贸合作，加 大相互开放，协商妥处分歧，实现互利共赢。 美国国防部发言人肖恩·帕内尔表示，美国目前的评估是伊朗核设施已被摧毁，伊朗核计划已 被推迟约1至2年。 美国总统特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南对美出口商品将被征收20%关税，任何转运货物 将被征收40%的关税。另外，越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税费。 评 论 及 策 略 金银价格反弹。美国6月ADP就业人数减少 3.3万人，大幅不及预 ...

Group 1 - Gold has seen a continuous rise for three days, reaching the target of 3365, with a focus on maintaining a bullish outlook while waiting for pullbacks to enter long positions [2][4] - The ADP data released on Wednesday showed results close to expectations, which is seen as bullish for gold, but the market did not react strongly, indicating a cautious approach to trading [2][5] - The domestic gold market has also shown upward movement, with support levels identified at 775 for Shanghai gold and 766 for Rongtong gold, suggesting potential for further gains after adjustments [5][6] Group 2 - The US dollar index remains weak, which supports the bullish trend in gold, with expectations that if the upcoming non-farm payroll data is positive, gold could reach 3400 [4][5] - International silver has also performed well, reaching a high of 36.6, with a focus on maintaining a cautious bullish stance while waiting for non-farm data [6] - Crude oil has shown effective rebounds, with a current upward trend, and support identified at 64, indicating potential for further gains depending on market news [7]

美国总统特朗普表示，不考虑延长7月9日关税谈判截止日期；7月9日之前可能无法与日本达成 协议；日本可能面临30%或35%的关税；有两到三个候选人可以担任美联储主席。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果不是因为美国总统特朗普的关税政策，美联储目前应该会采取更 宽松的货币政策。在被问及7月份降息的可能性时，鲍威尔称不会排除任何可能性，这将取决于 数据。他表示，美联储"绝大多数"成员确实预计今年晚些时候再次降息是合适的。 观 消 息 欧盟与美国正围绕贸易协议展开最后阶段博弈。据知情人士披露，欧盟已原则上同意接受美方 提出的10%普遍关税方案，但要求美国在制药、半导体等四大关键领域作出对等让步。白宫经济 顾问委员会主任米兰称，对与欧盟达成贸易协议"持乐观态度"。 欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，欧元区6月通胀已达2%目标，但任务尚未完成，并警告地缘政治和全 球分裂带来双向风险。拉加德称降息周期接近尾声，但不会预设承诺，未来政策将依赖数据。 20250702申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 0 ...

20250630申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2508 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2508 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 763.58 | 767.78 | 8718.00 | 8757.00 | | | 期 | | | | | | | | 货 | 前收盘价 | 766.40 | 770.42 | 8792.00 | 8832.00 | | | | 涨跌 | -2.82 | -2.64 | -74.00 | -75.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.37% | -0.34% | -0.84% | -0.85% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 129822 | 81148 | 315448 | 169951 | | | | 成交量 | 169217 | 25321 | 469549 | 42675 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the recent CPI data being unfavorable for gold and silver, the market has responded positively, leading to an upward trend in gold prices, with significant price increases observed throughout the week [1][2] - Gold has shown a consistent pattern of reaching new highs after each adjustment, with recent prices hitting 3365, indicating a bullish sentiment and aligning with the strategy proposed by the analyst [1][2] - The expected upward target for gold this week is set at 3400, with a potential profit of 100 USD from the current positions, suggesting a strong bullish trend [2] Group 2 - Domestic gold futures (沪金) have shown a significant upward movement, with the opening price expected around 792, and previous positions at 772 and 765 yielding substantial profits [3] - The international silver market has experienced fluctuations, with a recent high of 36.9 and a subsequent drop to 35.9, but remains strong overall, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [3] - Domestic silver has seen a temporary high at 9050, but the market remains uncertain about a definitive top, recommending a wait-and-see approach [4] Group 3 - International crude oil prices have surged to 69.2, achieving a second target of 68, with expectations for further increases to 72 and 74.5, indicating a strong bullish trend [4] - Domestic fuel oil has also broken above 2800, with previous positions recommended to be held, as the outlook remains bullish towards 3000 [4]

美国财长贝森特淡化了与欧盟迅速达成贸易协议的可能性，称欧盟存在"集体行动问题"，这 阻碍了谈判。贝森特对与亚洲贸易伙伴达成协议较为乐观，称美国已与日本进行了"非常富有 成效的讨论"，并称赞与印尼"非常积极"的沟通。 消 息 印度向世贸组织（WTO）发送通知文件表示，拟对美国征收报复性关税，以应对美国推出的钢铝 关税。这标志着印度首次回击特朗普的关税行动。另据知情人士透露，印度商务部长预计将于 本周访问美国讨论关税问题。 20250514申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 763.08 | 769.38 | 8192.00 | 8260.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 765.40 | 771.64 | 8219.00 | 8284.0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is currently testing low levels and seeking upward breakout potential, with recent CPI data not altering its weak trend [1][3] - Gold has been in a low volatility state, with recent fluctuations showing limited upward movement, and the market is advised to observe the continuation of strength or weakness [3][5] - The dollar index has seen a significant drop due to poor CPI data, closing around 100.7, with expectations of further weakness potentially reaching 99.8 [5][6] Group 2 - Key technical levels for gold include maintaining higher lows and breaking the resistance at 3280, which is crucial for establishing bullish momentum [6][7] - Domestic gold futures have shown limited volatility, with the Shanghai gold contract closing around 770, and potential upward movement if it breaks 775 [7] - International silver has provided trading opportunities around the 32 low point, with expectations of reaching 33.5, while domestic silver has also shown profit potential around the 8200 level [8] Group 3 - The international crude oil market has shown a strong upward trend, currently peaking around 64, with expectations of further increases towards 66 [8] - Domestic fuel oil has seen significant profits from previous long positions, with the highest price reaching 2760, and traders are advised to adjust their profit-taking strategies [9]

20250513申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 免 责 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 声 明 研究局限性和风险提示 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 770.30 | 776.24 | 8232.00 | 8295.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 786.32 | 792.56 | 8168.00 | 8232.00 | | | 货 | | | | | | | | | 涨跌 | -16.02 | -16.32 | 64.00 | 63.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -2.04% | -2.06% | 0.78% | 0.77% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 87624 | 53842 | 2 ...