本周 COMEX 黄金下跌 3.30%至 4,126.90 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银下跌 4.38%至 48.41 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金下跌 6.17%至 938.10 元/克，SHFE 白银下跌 7.49%至 11,332.00 元/ 千克。 本周金银比上涨 1.12%至 85.25。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓减少 9,186.33 金衡盎司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓减少 89,770.80 盎司。 周四，美国 9 月成屋销售总数年化 406 万户，预期 406 万 户，前值 400 万户。 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 25 日 [Table_Title] CPI 低于预期，降息概率提升，金属价格上涨趋势 不变 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：CPI 低于预期，降息预期明朗，宽松周期 下上涨趋势不变 周五，美国 9 月未季调 CPI 年率 3%，预期 3.10%，前值 2.90%。美国 9 月季调后 CPI 月率 0.3%，预期 0.40%，前值 0.40%。 ...

2025年10月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡反弹 | 2 | | 铜：情绪回暖，价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：关注LME库存 | 6 | | 铅：库存持续减少，价格上涨 | 8 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 9 | | 铝：重心上移 | 11 | | 氧化铝：底部震荡 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：具备向上弹性 | 11 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 13 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 24 日 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 白银：震荡反弹 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | | | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

观点与策略 | 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 9 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 11 | | 氧化铝：底部磨盘 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 13 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025年10月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2512 | 952.56 | -4.17% | 934.72 | -1.56% | | | 黄金T+D | 948.84 | -3.86% | 931.99 | -1.59% | | | ...

先看原油，这次上涨不是"空穴来风"。一方面技术面早有"预警"，之前油价跌得太急，相对强弱指标连续一周都踩在"超卖"区间，就像人跑马拉松冲太猛 会岔气，回调修复本就是市场规律；另一方面美国政府刚公布的库存数据给了定心丸——原油库存少了约420万桶，降到9月底以来的最低，这直接浇灭 了一部分人对"供应过剩"的焦虑，而且数据和之前美国石油学会的预测能对上，可信度够高。 大家好，我是帮主郑重，干了20年财经记者，习惯从长线视角扒拉市场里的真逻辑。今天一早翻大宗商品盘面，不少朋友私信问：油价怎么突然涨了？ 黄金周二跌那么狠，今天还没缓过来？伦铜悄悄涨了又是为啥？别慌，咱今天就把这几件事的来龙去脉说清楚，不玩虚的，只讲实在逻辑。 沫"。而且渣打也说了，预计明年黄金还能重拾动能，所以不用因为这两天的波动乱了阵脚，长线投资者更该关注后续能不能稳住关键支撑位，而不是盯 着单日涨跌。 最后看伦铜，今天悄悄涨了0.37%，收在10663美元/吨，旁边的期铝、期锌也跟着涨了点，就期镍微跌了0.08%。这波上涨和"贸易担忧"有关——听说特朗 普政府在考虑限制软件出口，市场担心这会影响相关产业链，反而让基本金属的供需预期有了变化。不过伦 ...

| 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 2 | | 铜：美元回升，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：外盘支撑 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 13 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 13 | 2025年10月22日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 22 日 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间10月20日，伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME期锌涨1.45%报2976.00美元/吨，LME 期铅涨1.22%报1994.00美元/吨，LME期铜涨1.02%报10712.50美元/吨，LME期锡涨0.75%报35300.00美 元/吨，LME期镍涨0.69%报15230.00美元/吨，LME期铝跌0.40%报2766.50美元/吨。 ...

2025年10月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 2 | | 铜：市场谨慎，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：偏弱运行 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 9 | | 铝：考验21000关口 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 13 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 20 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen significant price increases, with COMEX gold rising by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% due to recession fears and expectations of renewed tariffs [4] - Copper prices have rebounded by 2.25% on the LME, driven by tariff expectations, despite some pressure from lower downstream demand [5] - Cobalt prices have surged due to supply concerns following the announcement of export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with significant weekly increases in various cobalt compounds [6] - The report indicates that rare earth prices have decreased but are expected to stabilize due to tightened export controls and ongoing demand in sectors like energy-efficient appliances and electric vehicles [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index for the industry is at 7322.8, with a weekly high of 7807.9 and a low of 4280.14 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper increase by 2.25%, aluminum by 1.18%, while zinc, lead, and tin experienced declines [19] - Precious metals saw significant increases, with COMEX gold up by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% [19] Inventory Trends - Global visible copper inventories increased by 16,766 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 6,049 tons [33][35]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed significant divergence in performance from October 13 to October 17, with precious metals, black metals, and base metals leading gains, while energy, chemicals, and agricultural products experienced collective declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 5.54% and crude oil by 6.34% for the week; in the black metal sector, iron ore dropped by 3.02%, while coking coal and coking coke rose by 1.55% and 0.57%, respectively [1] - Precious metals saw substantial increases, with Shanghai gold rising by 10.90% and Shanghai silver by 10.53% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market faced multiple bearish pressures, with WTI crude futures falling below $80 and Brent crude near $82 per barrel; domestic crude oil prices dropped by 12.41% over the week [2] - OPEC+ continued its production increase plan, adding 137,000 barrels per day, while U.S. shale oil production showed resilience, slightly increasing to 13.636 million barrels per day [2][3] - Demand weakened significantly, with U.S. refinery utilization dropping by 6.7 percentage points to 85.7%, and Chinese refinery utilization at a low of 81.23% [2] Group 3: Pork Market Trends - Domestic live pig futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 3.87% to a three-month low, driven by slow trading sentiment and increased outflow from large-scale farms [4] - The supply side remains robust, with the number of breeding sows at 40.38 million, indicating a sufficient long-term supply base [4][5] - Despite expectations for improved demand due to cooler temperatures, actual sales of pork have not met expectations, leading to continued price pressure [4] Group 4: Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3%, with core CPI rising by 1.0% [6][7] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 4.4% drop in food prices, which accounted for a significant portion of the overall decrease [6] - The export growth rate for September was 8.3%, with a cumulative growth of 6.1% for the first three quarters, indicating a recovery in trade despite challenges with U.S. exports [10][11]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and rising credit crisis concerns have led to expectations of interest rate cuts, resulting in sustained highs for gold and silver prices. COMEX gold rose by 5.76% to $4,267.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver increased by 6.55% to $50.63 per ounce. SHFE gold and silver also saw significant increases of 10.53% to 999.80 yuan per gram and 12,249.00 yuan per kilogram, respectively [1][2][30]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The gold-silver ratio fell by 0.74% to 84.30. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 966,285.71 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 1,452,401.60 ounces [1][30]. - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 17th day, with significant economic impacts estimated at a weekly loss of $15 billion. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for further interest rate cuts are expected to support gold prices [3][45][46]. - The silver market is experiencing extreme tightness, leading to a historical "short squeeze" with leasing rates exceeding 35%. Global silver shortages are projected to reach approximately 3,660 tons in 2025, with industrial demand expected to grow due to AI-driven applications [7][47]. Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 2.25% to $10,607.00 per ton, while aluminum increased by 1.18% to $2,778.50 per ton. Zinc and lead prices, however, saw declines [8][9]. - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to production disruptions in major mines, with a projected reduction of 200,000 tons in Q4 2025. The macroeconomic environment remains supportive of copper prices, with expectations of continued U.S. dollar depreciation [10][11][21]. - Aluminum demand remains stable, with production expected to increase due to new projects. The profit margins for electrolytic aluminum are improving as raw material costs decline [12][22]. Minor Metals - Magnesium prices have decreased by 1.43% to 17,920 yuan per ton, while molybdenum prices rose by 3.28% to 283,500 yuan per ton due to increased demand from steelmaking [17][18]. - The market for vanadium remains under pressure, with prices declining as steel demand has not met expectations [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold and silver stocks due to their expected performance in the current economic climate. Recommended stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold [6][20][47].