在中央明确要求防止"内卷式"恶性竞争之后，相关部委积极行动，出台相关"反内卷"举措。 7月24日，国家发改委、国家市场监管总局发布关于《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见的公告，完善了低价倾销 的认定标准，以规范市场价格秩序、治理"内卷式"竞争；国资委在京举办地方国资委负责人研讨班，要求带头抵制"内卷式"竞争，加强重组整 合；国家医保局副局长施子海表示，第11批集采不再以简单的最低价作为参考，且报价最低企业要公开说明报价的合理性，并承诺不低于成本 报价。 二级市场上，7月24日，在Wind中国行业指数中，基本金属指数以3.94%的涨幅位居行业指数榜首，且6月底以来加速上行；钢铁指数也大涨 2.43%，7月1日以来大幅上涨。 四部委出手"反内卷" 7月24日，国家发改委、国家市场监管总局发布关于《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见的公告。 据公告披露，该修正草案共10条，主要涉及三方面内容，包括完善政府定价相关内容、进一步明确不正当价格行为认定标准、健全价格违法行 为法律责任。 在进一步明确不正当价格行为认定标准方面，一是完善低价倾销的认定标准，规范市场价格秩序，治理 ...

【导读】四部委出台相关"反内卷"举措 中国基金报记者 卢鸰 在中央明确要求防止"内卷式"恶性竞争之后，相关部委 积极 行动，出台相关"反内卷"举措。 据公告披露，该修正草案共10条，主要涉及三方面内容，包括完善政府定价相关内容、进一 步明确不正当价格行为认定标准、健全价格违法行为法律责任。 在进一步明确不正当价格行为认定标准方面，一是完善低价倾销的认定标准，规范市场价格 秩序，治理"内卷式"竞争；二是完善价格串通、哄抬价格、价格歧视等不正当价格行为认定 标准。 7月24日，国家发改委、国家市场监管总局发布关于《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求 意见稿）》公开征求意见的公告，完善了低价倾销的认定标准，以规范市场价格秩序、治 理"内卷式"竞争；国资委在京举办地方国资委负责人研讨班，要求带头抵制"内卷式"竞争， 加强重组整合；国家医保局副局长施子海表示，第11批集采不再以简单的最低价作为参考， 且报价最低企业要公开说明报价的合理性，并承诺不低于成本报价。 二级市场上，7月24日，在Wind中国行业指数中，基本金属指数以3.94%的涨幅位居行业指 数榜首，且6月底以来加速上行；钢铁指数也大涨2.43%，7月1日以来 ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 2025年07月22日 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：供需矛盾预期，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 9 | | 铝：震荡上行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：短期情绪偏强 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵 ...

值得注意的是，虽然电子等台湾地区外销主力产业4-5月份对美订单大幅增长，但这与美国厂商"提前备 货"有关，并不代表无风险。调查报告发现，台湾地区高科技产业中有逾四成厂商预估未来营收将明显 下滑，"显示美国关税政策若进一步延伸至半导体及关键零组件，台湾地区整体出口结构恐将面临深层 冲击"。 调查报告同时结合多场座谈与访谈，归纳出台湾地区中小企业当前面临的五大结构性挑战，包括汇率剧 烈波动、工业电价3年累计涨幅66%、AI与绿色转型门槛、缺工与人才排挤，还有当局协助政策信息落 差等。"民间版冲击影响评估"提出五大政策建议，分别为稳定汇率、检讨能源政策、扩大稳定就业措施 与劳工保障、设立AI转型专责单位、建立贸易协助单一窗口。管中闵还提醒说，若美国经济衰退1%， 台湾地区经济衰退约0.29%，但若大陆经济衰退1%，台湾地区最高恐衰退0.39%，"因此关税战对大陆的 影响也要注意"。学者林祖嘉称，这是初步调查，未来还要思考如果"对等关税"超过30%可能带来的冲 击，以及新台币升值对产业的影响。 美国政府8月1日的"关税大限"将至，台"经济部长"郭智辉21日称"目前还在谈判中"，台"行政院副院 长"郑丽君将第4次赴美谈 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, and silver is expected to break through and move upward [2][4]. - The good US economic data supports the copper price [2][9]. - Zinc is expected to operate within a range [2][13]. - The downside of lead may be limited [2][15]. - The price of tin is weakening [2][18]. - For aluminum, attention should be paid to the marginal changes in inventory; alumina is expected to be volatile and bullish; cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel is affected by news - related sentiment, and its fundamentals are under pressure; stainless steel prices are expected to move in a volatile manner due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of沪金2510 was 776.28 with a daily decline of 0.05%, and the closing price of沪银2510 was 9166 with a daily increase of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts also changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's government is expected to visit the Fed regarding decoration issues. The next - likely Fed chairman, Waller, suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July. US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1 [7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪铜主力合约 was 77,850 with a daily decline of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed, and the inventory of沪铜 decreased by 8,103 tons [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US retail sales data was strong, and the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased. China's imports of copper concentrates and unwrought copper and copper products in June showed different trends [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪锌主力 was 22120 with a daily increase of 0.41%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [13]. - **News**: Potential Fed chairman candidates have different views on Fed policies, and Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪铅主力 was 16845 with a daily decline of 0.30%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [15]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, potential Fed chairman candidates have different views on Fed policies, and Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪锡主力合约 was 261,920 with a daily decline of 0.77%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar macro - level news as other metals, such as Fed - related news and US economic data [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is - 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the沪铝主力合约 was 20415. For alumina, the closing price of the沪氧化铝主力合约 was 3089. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's independence is a "myth", and the US and India are close to reaching a trade agreement [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and cast aluminum alloy is 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪镍主力 was 119,880, and the closing price of the不锈钢主力 was 12,730. The trading volume, positions, and relevant prices in the industrial chain changed [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are issues such as potential nickel export restrictions from Canada, the start of trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, and the resumption of production of a nickel smelter in Indonesia [26][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [30].

海外方面新西兰央行宣布下调基准利率25个基点至3.25%符合预期这是自2024年8月以来的连续第6次降息累计幅度达225个基点此次决议同时释放出较三个月前更深的宽松信号反映出政策制定者对经济前景日益增长的担忧 大家好解读宏观事件探寻市场逻辑这里是每日宏观试点今天是2025年5月29日星期四我们梳理一下昨天的市场变化以及宏观事件数据国内商品期市收盘多数下跌化工品表现弱势橡胶和20号胶分别下跌4.36%和4.52%跌幅居前 银二醇 药素等品种跌幅亦明显 基本金属普遍成压,互锡和互涅分别下跌3.15%和2.10%,表现疲软黑色系品种继续回调,焦煤和焦碳分别下跌2.20%和1.91% 罗文刚期货延续跌市 日内收跌近1% 日内最低跌至2950元每吨 刷新去年9月以来的低位农副产品涨跌不一三大指数载幅整理 上证指数收跌0.02%报3339.93点 深圳城只跌0.26% 创业板只跌0.31% 北政50跌1.39% 科创50跌0.23% 万德全A跌0.2%万德A500跌0.14% 中正A500跌0.16%A股成交1.03万亿 上日为1.02万亿 国债期货收盘多数下跌30年期主力合约跌0.04%10年期主力合约持平于108.7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, while silver is predicted to break through and rise [2][6]. - Copper prices are supported by the firm domestic spot market [2][10]. - Zinc is under pressure and expected to operate under stress [2][13]. - The downside for lead prices may be relatively limited [2][16]. - Tin prices are weakening [2][19]. - Aluminum is under pressure during the off - season, alumina will fluctuate within a range, and the operating rate of cast aluminum alloy is declining [2][23]. - The support from the nickel ore end has loosened, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory. Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all declined, with daily and night - session fluctuations. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and Silver T + D showed different trends, with some increases and some decreases. Trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, and inventories also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. The US Treasury Secretary said there was no need to worry about the deadline for suspending the imposition of some tariffs between the US and China, and the negotiation situation was good [5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - positive outlook [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract declined slightly, while the London Copper 3M electronic disk rose slightly. Trading volumes, positions, inventories, and various spot - related price differences all changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. There were also news about trade tariffs and copper trade activities [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. 3.3 Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [13]. - **News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and the London Lead 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [16]. - **News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]. 3.5 Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Tin main contract and the London Tin 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, inventories, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, there were news about the US CPI and trade - related events [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [22]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all had different degrees of change. There were also data on inventories, production costs, and corporate profits [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. There was also news about the US - China tariff negotiation situation [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and various price - related data of nickel and stainless steel futures had corresponding changes. There were also data on the industrial chain, such as the prices of high - nickel pig iron and the profit margins of nickel plate imports [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were news about the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the production status of nickel - related projects in Indonesia, and the environmental issues in the Indonesian nickel - mining area [26][27][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [31].

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Tibet Summit Holdings, Xinjiang Tacheng International Resources Co., Ltd., is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure laws [2][4][6]. Group 1: Investigation Details - Tibet Summit announced that it received a notification from its controlling shareholder, Tacheng International, regarding the CSRC's issuance of a case notice [4]. - The investigation is based on allegations of information disclosure violations under the Securities Law and the Administrative Penalty Law of the People's Republic of China [6]. - Tibet Summit stated that the investigation pertains solely to Tacheng International and will not affect the company's daily operations or business activities [6]. Group 2: Shareholder Information - Tacheng International was established in 1996 and is represented by Huang Jianrong, who is also the chairman of Tibet Summit [8]. - As of the end of the first quarter, Tacheng International held 28.0651 million shares of Tibet Summit, accounting for 3.07% of the company's total shares, making it the third-largest shareholder [8]. - Tacheng International also holds 30 million shares of Western Mining Co., Ltd., representing 1.26% of that company [11]. Group 3: Performance Forecast - On July 14, Tibet Summit announced a performance forecast for the first half of 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be between 204 million and 306 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.31% to 138.96% [10]. - The increase in performance is attributed to the recovery of production capacity at its subsidiary, Tachung Mining Co., Ltd., and improved operational efficiency leading to reduced production costs [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industry products, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting different approaches such as buying, selling, or holding based on the specific market conditions of each commodity [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices are in high - level oscillation. China's central bank has increased gold holdings for 8 consecutive months. Suggest going long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: It shows a rebound with good market sales recently. Long - term industrial silver demand is downward, so consider long - term short positions or going long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices oscillated. Trump's tariff increase affected the market. It is recommended to wait for a full adjustment and then buy at low prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate. It is advised to wait and see due to macro uncertainties and a consumption off - season [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices may be strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy at low prices or purchase call options [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term market sentiment is strong with high unilateral risks. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is recommended to wait and see due to expected marginal improvement and industrial information disturbances [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to wait and see and try a reverse spread [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are neutral. It is recommended to wait and see and layout long positions on the far - month coil - ore ratio [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound oscillation. Domestic soybeans follow international cost - side trends [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range due to reduced surplus grain and wheat substitution [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillate. It is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, or lock in prices for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: It is expected to be strong in the short term with wide - range oscillations. Pay attention to production areas and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate due to high supply and cost support [7]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and adjust due to increasing supply and weakening demand [7]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is affected by weather [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term supply and demand improve. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [8][9]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see after gradually closing short positions [9]. - **PTA**: It is recommended to go long on PX, do a positive spread on PTA, and short processing fees in the long term [9]. - **Glass**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [9][10]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The long - term trend is bearish. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to inventory accumulation [10]. - **Styrene**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10][11].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3500 points, reaching a high of 3512.67 points, the highest intraday level in nearly eight months, but closed at 3493.05 points, down 0.13% [1][3] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell slightly by 0.06% to 10581.8 points, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.16% [1] - Total A-share trading volume was 1.53 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 528 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The market showed sector divergence, with Wind's multi-financial and education indices leading gains, while precious and base metals indices saw significant declines [1] - Notable concept indices included Kimi, short drama games, and chicken industry indices, which rose by 2.22%, 2.13%, and 1.71% respectively, while rare earth, insurance, and GPU indices fell by around 1.8% [1][4] Investment Sentiment - Southbound funds showed a net inflow of approximately 9.256 billion Hong Kong dollars, indicating a willingness to invest despite the overall market decline [2] - Analysts suggest that while the risk of a significant market pullback is relatively low, further upward movement requires more fundamental support [2][12] Recent Trends - From July 1 to July 9, the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.41%, 1.47%, and 1.11% respectively [6] - The construction materials, comprehensive, steel, banking, and media indices were the top five performing sectors during this period, with gains of 6.65%, 6.18%, 5.55%, 4.67%, and 3.75% respectively [10] Fund Flows - There has been a noticeable increase in fund inflows into thematic ETFs, with several ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [11] - The A-share financing balance has remained above 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating strong leverage sentiment among investors [11] Future Outlook - Analysts emphasize the importance of fundamental improvements for sustained market growth, with a focus on high ROE assets as a favorable investment strategy [12][13] - The current market environment is seen as a good opportunity for long-term investments, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals and consumer goods, which are expected to yield significant returns over time [13]