普兰认为，对于新任总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼而言，当前的核心任务是推动预算顺利通过，以恢复市 场信心。财政分配问题尤为关键。政府需要决定是否坚持440亿欧元的目标，并在此过程中兼顾不同政 党的利益。最终，政府必须在效率与妥协之间找到平衡点。或许新政府需要放弃部分目标来让预算顺利 通过，从而有效稳定政治局势，法国才能获得投资者的信任和较低的融资成本。 然而，经济学家马修·普兰认为，该评级下调虽为负面信号，但并不意味着灾难。事实上，这一变化早 已在市场预期之中，其他评级机构可能也会跟进。尽管评级下降，法国的信用状况仍然相对稳固，类似 于从"优秀"降至"良好"。相比于西班牙和意大利等国，法国的信用评级仍然保持较高水平。更为重要的 是，这一变化表明，评级机构的担忧程度低于市场的普遍预期。尽管法国的借贷利率与意大利相当，但 意大利的信用评级明显低于法国。因此，这一评级调整不会对法国经济产生剧烈的影响。 此次评级下调并不意味着法国经济陷入困境，实质问题在于法国政治失衡。普兰说，事实上，法国政治 已经陷入某种结构性瘫痪，2024年议会选举后形成左翼、中间派与极右翼"三足鼎立"格局，导致政府无 法获得稳定多数支持。今年9月贝鲁 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings downgraded France's credit rating from "AA-" to "A+", indicating a shift from "very low" to "low" default risk, which has raised concerns among political figures but is seen as a manageable situation by economists [1][2] Group 1: Rating Downgrade Implications - The downgrade is viewed as a negative signal but does not imply an economic crisis; rather, it highlights a political crisis in France [2] - Despite the downgrade, France's credit status remains relatively stable compared to countries like Spain and Italy, suggesting limited immediate economic impact [1][2] Group 2: Political Context - The political landscape in France is described as structurally paralyzed, with a fragmented parliament leading to instability and challenges in passing fiscal measures [2][3] - The resignation of former Prime Minister François Bayrou and the rise of extreme right forces complicate the government's ability to secure a stable majority [2] Group 3: Economic Risks - The real risk for France is likened to an "Italian-style dilemma," where rising debt financing costs could gradually limit investment capacity, rather than an immediate financial crisis [2] - An increase in interest rates by one percentage point could lead to an additional €3 billion in annual expenditures, accumulating to €30 billion over ten years, which is significant for France's fiscal health [2] Group 4: Government's Fiscal Strategy - The new Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, faces the critical task of passing the budget to restore market confidence, balancing efficiency and compromise among various political interests [3] - The government must decide whether to maintain the €44 billion fiscal target while ensuring budget approval to stabilize the political situation and regain investor trust [3]