国外 1. 惠誉：预计美联储上半年降息两次，今年失业率或稳于4.6% 惠誉将2025年美国GDP增长预估值及2026年增长预测值上调。此次调整是在纳入了因去年底政府停摆而 延迟发布的经济数据后作出的。惠誉目前预计2025年GDP增长2.1%，高于其2025年12月《全球经济展 望》（GEO）中预测的1.8%。同时，将2026年的增长预测从上次报告的1.9%上调至2.0%。鉴于10月数 据不完整，近期CPI通胀趋势难以解读。据估计，通胀率在2025年12月升至3.0%（11月为2.7%），并受 关税传导延迟的影响，2026年将进一步上升，年底预计达到3.2%。由于就业增长放缓的影响被劳动力 增速下降所抵消，预计2026年平均失业率为4.6%，与近期水平接近。我们预计美联储将在2026年上半 年降息两次，将联邦基金利率（上限）下调至3.25%。 2. 高盛：投资者对石油的看空情绪达到近十年来最高水平 高盛集团的一项调查发现，地缘政治因素令机构投资者对石油的看法达到近10年来最悲观的水平，全球 市场正面临石油供过于求的困境。根据高盛的调查，在涵盖各类资产的1100多名客户中，超过59%的人 看空或略微看空原油市场。 ...

当美国财政部12月18日公布10月美债持仓情况时，一组数字引起全球市场关注：中国持有的美债规模较 9月减少了118亿美元，降至6887亿美元。这个数字创下了2008年10月以来的最低水平，也是17年来首次 跌破7000亿美元心理关口。 相比之下，美国的两个忠实盟友日本和英国却在增持美债。日本增持107亿美元至1.2万亿美元，英国增 持132亿美元至8779亿美元。这种分化趋势背后，隐藏着怎样的中美金融博弈？ 中国减持路径：17年最低点的背后 中国减持美债并非一时冲动，而是一个持续多年的战略选择。从2021年11月持有1.08万亿美元的高点开 始，中国在4年时间内累计减持了3913亿美元美债，中间仅有4个月出现小幅增加，其他月份均为减持。 更值得关注的是，中国持有的美债规模已降至6887亿美元。与2013年达到顶峰的1.3万亿美元相比，中 国的美债持仓已经缩减了近一半。 这种减持是谨慎而有序的。与日本在2022年3个月内疯狂抛售1660亿美元的激进做法不同，中国采取了 更为稳健的"到期不续"策略。这种方式不会引发市场剧烈波动，也能避免将账面浮亏变为实际亏损。 美联储激进加息导致美债价格下跌，如果此时抛售美债，浮 ...

作者：李丹，华尔街见闻 美国官方公布的11月核心通胀意外降至四年多以来最低水平，但这一看似积极的信号正遭到经济学家的 广泛质疑，因为创纪录时长的政府关门导致数据收集工作受阻，使通胀报告的可信度大打折扣。 通胀观察和预测机构Inflation Insights的创始人、经济学家Omair Sharif表示，10月租金数据缺失可能人 为压低了11月的通胀数据。有"新美联储通讯社"之称的资深联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在社交媒体转发 Shariff的评论称： "这完全不可接受。BLS竟然假设10月的租金和业主等价租金（OER）为零。我相信他们肯 定有很好的技术解释，但要想得出两个月平均租金（增长）0.06%和OER（增长）0.135%这 种结论，唯一的办法就是假设10月的（增长）为零。这无论如何都是个错误的做法，可事实 就是做了。" 尽管市场对数据持保留态度，美股仍在数据公布后反弹，三大股指周四高开，CPI公布后美元和美国国 债收益率刷新日低。利率期货市场定价显示，投资者预计，美联储1月降息的概率略微升至约22%，交 易员预计明年将降息两次。定价已完全体现到明年年中将有一次降息的预期。 数据收集出现重大缺 ...

惠誉称，由于欧盟RRF(Recovery and Resilience Facility)基金资助的项目实施缓慢，迄今为止投资活动仅 有温和复苏。预计RRF基金资助的投资将在2026年对经济增长产生更大的影响。在企业部门的推动下， 银行贷款增长也在持续改善。另一方面，通胀低于预期，11月份整体通胀率降至2.4%。核心通胀也逐 步下降，10月份达到3%。在三大评级机构中，穆迪给予波兰的信用评级最高，为"A2"。惠誉和标普给 予波兰的评级为"A-"，比穆迪低一个等级。在秋季评级调整中，惠誉和穆迪将波兰的评级展望从稳定调 整为负面，而标普则维持了稳定的评级展望。 波通社12月4日报道，根据评级机构惠誉的季度报告，该机构维持对波兰2026年GDP增长3.2%和2027年 GDP增长2.9%的预测，并预计波兰货币政策委员会将在2026年和2027年各降息25个基点。 ...

在2025年1月结案。然而，这些法律起诉让特朗普看起来像是罪犯，民主党借此机会继续对他进行攻 击。 2024年，特朗普遭遇两次刺杀事件。7月13日，在宾夕法尼亚州的集会上，枪手托马斯·克鲁克斯从屋顶 开枪，擦伤了特朗普的耳朵，并杀死了一名观众，另有两人受伤。克鲁克斯当场被击毙。9月15日，在 佛罗里达的高尔夫球场，瑞安·劳斯带着枪被捕，2025年9月他被判暗杀罪。特朗普表示，民主党的极端 言论激起了暴力，但民主党对此予以否认。这加深了两党的仇恨，也让美国的政治氛围变得更加毒化。 2024年大选后，民主党陷入了混乱。拜登和佩洛西年龄偏大，奥巴马一个人也无力支撑整个党派。像亚 历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯这样的新人虽然在小圈子内有一定影响力，但在全国范围内并未得到广 泛支持。2025年，民调显示民主党的支持率下降，党内派系纷争不断。大家都担心特朗普可能会一举带 走他们，因此在中期选举前，民主党急于调整策略。 美国的两党斗争近几年愈发激烈，自从特朗普上台以来，民主党几乎没有停止过对他的攻击。2020年， 南希·佩洛西在国会大厦当着众人撕掉特朗普的演讲稿，这个举动点燃了激烈的政治争斗。佩洛西作为 民主党的重要人物， ...

新闻速递 惠誉维持匈牙利BBB信用评级，但将展望由稳定下调至负面。此次展望调整源于公共财政状况显著恶化，反映出该国为2026年议会选举采取的 财政措施。该机构预测赤字率将从今年的5%扩大至2026年的5.6%，远超6月预期，且不排除"2026年初采取临时性财政宽松措施"的可能性。债 务占GDP比重将从2024年的73.5%攀升至2027年末的74.6%。惠誉指出，匈牙利相较同类国家（包括人均GDP）的强劲结构性指标支撑其BBB 评级，但需权衡高公共债务、非常规经济政策、以及对外部冲击（包括俄罗斯能源供应中断风险）的高暴露度等因素。预计2023-2025年经济 增长将基本持平，明年有望回升至2.3%。通胀率在4.5%-3.5%-4.4%的波动区间暗示央行存在超调风险。惠誉预计政策利率将从当前6.5%降至 2026年底的6%。 标普全球英国11月就业报告显示招聘活动持续萎缩。永久性职位空缺连续第五个月下降，但降幅有所收窄。临时工薪酬小幅下降。永久职位薪 资虽有所增长，但因劳动力供应激增且岗位竞争激烈，涨幅处于历史低位。受访者指出当前环境仍复杂多变，并补充称预算案公布前的紧张情 绪导致临时招聘在10月增长后再度回落 ...

Group 1: Economic Policies and Predictions - The Australian National Bank states that the easing cycle of the Reserve Bank of Australia has ended, with potential interest rate hikes considered in the first half of 2026 due to nearing capacity constraints in the economy [1] - Fitch Ratings warns that Japan's new economic stimulus plan, which accounts for 3.4% of GDP, may threaten its A/stable sovereign credit rating due to high debt levels and structural risks [1] - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that political factors may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike until January 2026, rather than December [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Spectra Markets indicates that if Kevin Hassett, a proponent of rate cuts, becomes the next Federal Reserve Chair, it would negatively impact the US dollar, as market expectations for rate cuts continue to rise [2] - The Swedish National Debt Office has significantly revised its fiscal deficit expectations for 2025-2027, leading to a 33% increase in government bond issuance in 2026 [3] - The UK’s autumn budget has stabilized the bond market, with a slight decrease in five-year sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, indicating a temporary easing in market concerns over default risk [3] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Retail Outlook - GfK and NIM's survey shows a slight recovery in Germany's consumer climate index, but overall retail sales growth is expected to be modest at 1.4% year-on-year during the holiday season [2] - Analysts warn that if Sweden's nominal GDP growth falls below 2%, the debt-to-GDP ratio may approach the 45% warning line within three years, indicating limited fiscal space [2] Group 4: AI Hardware Market Trends - Macquarie Research predicts that 2026 will mark a significant increase in demand for consumer-grade AI hardware, driven by companies like Apple, Google, and Xiaomi integrating hardware and AI software [3]

Group 1 - Moody's is expected to upgrade Italy's rating for the first time in nearly 23 years, reflecting increased market confidence in the country's public finances [1] - The Italian government has lowered its budget deficit target for 2025 to 3% of GDP, one year ahead of the EU's requirement, due to increased tax revenues and reduced debt servicing costs [1] - Analysts note that Italy's fiscal performance has consistently exceeded expectations, supported by the removal of large fiscal stimulus measures and robust GDP growth [1][2] Group 2 - Other rating agencies have also upgraded Italy's rating, with Fitch raising it to BBB+ and Deloitte to A (low), while Scope improved its outlook to positive [2] - The spread between 10-year Italian government bonds and German bonds has narrowed by approximately 40 basis points since early September, indicating improved investor sentiment [2] - Despite potential rating upgrades, Italy faces challenges such as an aging population, heavy debt burden, and stagnant GDP growth, with the government lowering its growth forecast to 0.5% for the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's is set to review Italy's credit rating, with the possibility of an upgrade for the first time in nearly 25 years, reflecting increasing market confidence in the country's public finances [1] Group 1: Credit Rating Review - Moody's will conduct a credit rating review for Italy on Friday, potentially leading to an upgrade [1] - The last upgrade occurred in May 2002 when Moody's adjusted Italy's rating from Aa3 to Aa2, and since then, there has been no increase [1] - Italy's current rating remains at "Baa3," the lowest tier of investment grade, which has not changed since the downgrade in October 2018 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In May, Moody's raised Italy's rating outlook from "stable" to "positive," while maintaining the "Baa3" rating, citing stronger-than-expected fiscal performance and a stabilizing political environment [1] - The Meloni government has revised the 2025 budget deficit target down to 3% of GDP, ahead of the EU's deadline [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Unicredit Bank noted that a potential rating upgrade would further confirm the positive trend in Italy's overall credit assessment [1] - Among major rating agencies, Moody's remains the most cautious regarding Italy's credit outlook [1]

Core Insights - The Cameroonian government has requested a sovereign rating in Central African Francs from the Ivorian rating agency Bloomfield Investment Company, aiming to enhance its credibility in the regional debt market and diversify financing channels [1][1][1] Group 1: Government Intentions - The initiative reflects the government's desire to further engage with regional financial markets by improving the local currency rating, which could attract regional investments and strengthen economic ties with neighboring countries [1][1] - The rating is expected to provide a more accurate representation of the country's economic and financial situation, facilitating better understanding of investment risks in Cameroon [1][1] Group 2: Selection of Rating Agency - Bloomfield was chosen due to its methodology being more aligned with regional characteristics and its experience in multiple Franc zone countries, potentially offering more flexibility compared to foreign agencies [1][1][1] Group 3: Financial Context - This move comes at a critical time for public finances, as Cameroon prepares to repay a €750 million bond issued in 2015, which has a 9.50% interest rate and matures on November 19, 2025 [1][1] - After repaying this significant external debt, the country aims to shift its debt strategy towards local currency financing, alleviating pressure on foreign exchange reserves [1][1] - As of June 30, 2025, Cameroon’s domestic debt (excluding unpaid balances and floating debt) stands at 38,144 billion Central African Francs, accounting for 11.6% of GDP, with over half (55%) of this debt composed of government bonds issued in the Central African Central Bank market [1][1]