海外宏观 海外宏观周报 杰克逊霍尔放鸽，美国科技股承压 证券分析师 | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | 范城恺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523010001 FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 一、 海外经济政策 1.1 美国 1.2 欧洲 1.3 日本 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年 8 月 25 日 海外经济政策。1）美国：欧盟与美国发表贸易联合声明，美国将对汽 车、药品、半导体和木材等大多数欧盟输美商品征收 15%的关税。美国 将 407 个产品类别纳入钢铁和铝关税清单，适用税率为 50%。特朗普表 示，美国正在对家具产品展开关税调查，预计未来 50 天内完成。特朗 普宣布，从 8 月 29 日起暂停对价值 800 美元及以下的进口包裹给予免 税待遇。标普确认美国"AA+/A-1+"主权信用评级，评级展望保持稳 定；惠誉确认美国 AA+评级，前景展望稳定。美国总统特朗普喊话美联 储理事库克，称其必须立 ...

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Moody's (MCO) . Shares have lost about 0.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Moody's due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.Moody's Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues & Expenses Ris ...

Group 1: Diplomatic Developments - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to India from August 18 to 20 aims to discuss military withdrawal and trade cooperation amidst ongoing border tensions [1][7] - The 24th meeting on border issues signifies a potential shift in communication mechanisms, focusing on establishing regular dialogue and reducing friction through verifiable agreements [2][11] Group 2: Economic Implications - China is taking concrete actions to restore trade confidence, such as approving 183 Brazilian coffee companies for export to China and enhancing trade facilitation measures with India [3][10] - India's response to U.S. tariffs includes a political mobilization against the 50% tariffs imposed on various sectors, indicating a strategic shift in its economic stance [5][7] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - The U.S. tariffs on India, particularly the 50% increase affecting textiles, jewelry, and automotive parts, are expected to severely impact profit margins and lead to a decline in investment plans among Indian enterprises [5][10] - The focus on cooperation in low-sensitivity sectors like renewable energy components and IT services is seen as a way to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and enhance bilateral trade efficiency [3][8] Group 4: Strategic Considerations - India's cooperation with China is viewed as a means to create strategic redundancy and shift some risks away from reliance on the U.S., while China seeks to stabilize relations to alleviate uncertainties [7][8] - The ongoing diplomatic negotiations are crucial for both countries, as they navigate the complexities of trade and security in a changing global economic landscape [11]

该评级机构还将贴现率指导值从6%上调至6.5%，预期人工智能等提升生产力的技术及私募股权回报将 继续推动市场上涨。 由托德·卡纳斯特领衔的分析师团队写道，"若美国公共养老金计划持续超预期，伴随新技术成熟推动科 技持续增长，且美联储利率趋稳，我们将看到这些计划获得市场收益与资金状况改善。" 智通财经APP获悉，标普全球评级在最新报告中指出，美国公共养老基金受益于股市强劲回报，将超越 常规投资预期。 分析师预计，在股价大幅上涨推动下，截至6月的财年养老金回报率将达11%-12%。这一收益是在4月市 场下挫背景下实现的——当时因投资者对特朗普总统关税计划作出反应，标普500指数曾在两个交易日 内蒸发逾5.4万亿美元市值。 此次优异表现延续了2024财年16%-17%的预估回报率。标普表示，养老金数据从核算到公布通常存在一 年滞后期。报告显示，基金管理人为维持资金充足率，通常设定至少7%的回报率目标。 ...

标普分析师Lisa Schineller在报告中写道："随着有效关税税率的上升，我们预计可观的关税收入将普遍 抵消近期财政立法(包含减税与支出调整)所带来的较弱财政结果。"彭博宏观策略师Alyce Andres评论 称："标普的表态叠加美联储官员的鸽派信号，有助于债市近期收益率的回落。" 这对特朗普而言也算是一个利好。白宫一直强调关税政策有助于改善美国财政状况。财政部数据显示， 7月份美国关税收入创下新高，海关关税达280亿美元。 不过，评级机构的观点仍对全球最大债券市场造成深远影响。今年以来，随着特朗普减税措施加剧赤字 担忧，穆迪已在5月剥夺了美国最后的最高信用评级，使其评级与标普、惠誉保持一致。这一举措曾推 动30年期美债收益率升破5%，并引发部分养老金被迫抛售风险。 智通财经APP获悉，美国国债在周二扭转连续三日跌势，收益率全线回落，因投资者继续押注美联储最 早可能在9月降息，同时静待美联储主席鲍威尔即将在杰克逊霍尔年会上发表的重磅讲话。 数据显示，美债收益率各期限普遍下跌1至4个基点，10年期基准收益率降至4.30%，结束了自上周四起 的抛售行情。当时美国7月PPI录得三年来最大涨幅，引发市场担忧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond issuance market in China is facing increased regulatory scrutiny, particularly targeting "dark box operations" by private equity firms and rating agencies, leading to self-discipline penalties for several institutions [1][8]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association has issued self-discipline penalties to five institutions, including warnings and orders for correction against the rating agency Zhongjian Pengyuan and private equity firms like Shanghai Fuxi Asset and Jiangsu Yuning [1][3]. - Shanghai Fuxi Asset has previously faced disciplinary actions from the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC), including the cancellation of its membership and a 12-month suspension on fund product filings due to violations related to bond issuance [6][8]. Group 2: Violations Identified - The penalized private equity firms were found to engage in two main types of violations: assisting multiple issuers in non-market-based bond issuance while charging substantial service fees, and facilitating "self-financing" issuance through nested asset management plans [3][4]. - Specific violations by Shanghai Fuxi Asset included using its own funds or introducing external funds for bond issuance, which constituted conflicts of interest and improper profit generation from fund assets [6][11]. Group 3: Market Impact and Trends - The trend of strict regulation in the bond issuance market is expected to continue, as private equity firms acting as intermediaries for non-market-based issuance pose significant risks to market integrity and investor interests [1][11]. - The regulatory framework has been clarified, prohibiting manipulation of issuance pricing and requiring transparency in bond issuance processes, with new guidelines set to take effect in August 2024 [10][11].

Core Insights - Moody's latest analysis indicates that the U.S. is at a critical juncture of economic recession, with 53% of industries initiating layoffs, except for the healthcare sector which continues to see job growth [1] - The employment market has contracted significantly for three consecutive months, with July 2025 non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, falling short of market expectations by 37,000 jobs [4] - A systemic weakening of economic indicators suggests an imminent recession risk, with notable consumer weakness and a manufacturing PMI below the growth threshold for six months [4] Employment Trends - The July 2025 non-farm payrolls were revised downwards, with May and June figures adjusted to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs [4] - 215 out of 400 industry classifications have experienced job reductions, marking the fourth time since 1970 that this ratio has exceeded 50% [4] Economic Indicators - Retail sales in July showed a minimal increase of 0.1%, while real consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, exhibited negative growth [4] - The manufacturing sector is under pressure, with a PMI of 48.3, the lowest since February 2024, and new orders dropping to 46.1 [4] - The housing market is also struggling, with 30-year mortgage rates rising to 7.25%, leading to existing home sales falling to an annualized rate of 3.87 million, the lowest since the beginning of 2025 [4] Policy and Structural Issues - The Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy, with a federal funds rate of 5.25%-5.5% amid a 3.2% inflation rate, limits policy flexibility [5] - Historical policy missteps, such as the steel and aluminum tariffs and immigration reform, have led to increased manufacturing costs and reduced labor supply, contributing to a 9.3% year-over-year increase in service sector wages [5] - Corporate profit margins have contracted to 7.8%, the lowest level since 2008, indicating significant economic strain [5] Future Outlook - The upcoming three quarters will be critical in determining the depth and breadth of the recession cycle, with traditional monetary policy tools nearing ineffectiveness [5]

Group 1 - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association issued severe warnings to several asset management firms for their involvement in non-market-based issuances and financial misconduct [1] - Jiangsu Yuning was warned for assisting multiple issuers in non-market-based issuance and receiving large financial subsidies [1] - Zhongyuan Futures was cautioned for failing to prudently verify the relationships between entrusted parties and issuers, effectively aiding in self-financing issuance [1] Group 2 - Fuxi Asset received a serious warning for assisting multiple issuers in non-market-based issuance and charging substantial financial subsidies or holding service fees [1] - Shanghai Huancai was warned for facilitating self-financing issuance through nested asset management plans [1] - Zhongzheng Pengyuan was criticized for sending rating upgrade proposals to potential subjects and failing to maintain effective separation between rating analysts and marketing personnel [1]

Group 1 - Trump indicated that Vice President Vance is the "most likely" successor for the 2028 Republican presidential candidate [1][2] - Trump suggested a potential ticket pairing of Vance and Secretary of State Rubio for future elections [2] - Moody's chief economist warned that recent indicators show the US economy is on the "edge of recession," with a weakening labor market and shrinking construction and manufacturing sectors [2] Group 2 - Multiple international financial institutions warned that investors should prepare for a decline in US stock prices due to high valuations and deteriorating economic data [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the US stock market faces short-term downside risks [3] - Morgan Stanley's analyst projected that the S&P 500 index could correct by up to 10% this quarter due to the impact of US tariff policies [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has allowed citizens to make voluntary donations to help reduce the national debt through Venmo and PayPal, expanding payment options beyond traditional bank transfers and credit cards [1][2] - As of July 25, the U.S. national debt has reached a record $36.7 trillion, an increase of 87% from $19.59 trillion in 2010 [2] - The donation program, which has been in place since 1996, has raised only $67.3 million, representing a mere 0.0002% of the current national debt [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt are growing, with hedge fund founder Ray Dalio warning of increasing risks of a fiscal crisis unless urgent policy changes are made [3][4] - Dalio suggests that the U.S. should aim to reduce the federal deficit to 3% of GDP, a level last maintained during the Clinton administration, to stabilize markets and control interest expenses [4] - The recent "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is projected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the long-term fiscal outlook [5] Group 3 - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that the new tax and spending bill will lead to a direct spending reduction of about $1.1 trillion and a revenue decline of approximately $4.5 trillion, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [5] - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative," citing increased uncertainty and anticipated prolonged high interest rates [5] - The U.S. stock market has reached new highs, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth due to excessive liquidity from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, which may lead to a market correction [6]