美国政坛风暴与三重危机 更为严重的是，美国劳工统计局、经济分析局、人口普查局等关键数据部门也暂停工作，导致重要的经济数据无法及时发布。例如，10月的非农就业报告未 能按期发布，令市场对美国就业形势的判断失去依据。标普、穆迪等评级机构纷纷发布警告，表示美国主权信用已跌至历史最低点，全球资本市场避险情绪 升温，黄金、白银价格不断攀升。 美国政坛近日面临严峻挑战，三重危机接连爆发，令民众和全球金融市场深感忧虑。根据2025年10月皮尤研究中心和路透社的最新民调，71%的美国民众对 国家的未来表示"极度担忧"。与此同时，标普全球数据显示，仅美国政府关门一周，经济损失已高达150亿美元。 美军高层动荡 美军高层的动荡尤为引人关注。美国国防部长赫格塞思近日召集了800名将领开会，气氛紧张，言辞激烈。据《纽约时报》和美联社的报道，赫格塞思在会 议中直言要求将领们"要么服从，要么离开"。不到两天时间，空军上将托马斯·比西尔通过社交平台宣布退役。随之而来的是特种作战司令部司令布莱恩·芬 顿递交辞职报告，并于3日正式交权。 这场人事风波并非单纯的职位更迭。特种作战司令部掌管全球敏感军事任务，其领导人的更替将直接影响美国军队的快速 ...

法国第一大经济日报《回声报》认为，总理辞职使2026年财政预算案的推进再度搁浅，财政整顿前景愈 发渺茫。法国财政状况已处于高度脆弱之中，截至9月，公共债务规模突破3.4万亿欧元，财政赤字在欧 元区国家中居首。 此前，国际评级机构惠誉已于9月12日将法国长期外币发行人违约评级从"AA-"下调至"A+"，并将评级 展望调整为"稳定"。分析人士认为，在政治不确定性叠加债务高企的背景下，法国市场的波动可能进一 步加剧。 新华财经巴黎10月6日电（记者崔可欣）法国总理勒科尔尼于当地时间6日早间突然宣布辞职，消息震动 政坛并迅速波及金融市场，法国国债和股市遭遇重挫。 据法国媒体报道，6日早间，法国与德国国债利差扩大至88个基点，创下自今年1月以来新高。法国10年 期国债收益率盘中飙升逾9个基点，突破3.6%，逼近2011年欧债危机期间的高位。市场人士指出，国债 收益率上行意味着投资者对法国债务风险的担忧急剧升温，而在债券市场上，收益率攀升与价格下跌形 成反向联动。 股市同样受到打击。巴黎CAC 40指数开盘下跌2%，跌破8000点大关。相比之下，其他主要欧洲股指相 对平稳。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

中国基金报记者 李智 根据美国劳工部消息，政府停摆导致关键经济数据延迟发布，可能影响2026年社会保障生活成本调整方案的公布进程。 劳工部下属劳工统计局原定于10月15日发布新版消费者价格指数数据，社会保障管理局本计划依据该数据于本月宣布2026年度生活成本调整方案。但劳工 部在此前发布的应急预案中明确表示，停摆期间劳工统计局将暂停运作。 据外媒报道，美国国会参议院10月3日将再次就延长联邦政府资金的临时拨款法案进行投票。如果未能通过，联邦政府停摆或将持续到下周。 古尔斯比：对提前大幅降息持谨慎态度 一起来关注下海外的最新资讯。 受美国政府停摆影响 美国9月失业率等数据延迟公布 受美国政府停摆影响，原定于北京时间10月3日20:30公布的美国9月季调后非农就业人口变动、美国9月失业率数据尚未公布。 美国劳工部长表示，一旦政府重新开门，将立即公布九月就业数据。 惠誉评级在一份报告中表示，美国政府若长期停摆，可能会导致经济增长小幅放缓。若停摆造成的干扰持续时间较长，尤其是同时出现大规模资金撤回或 劳动力削减的情况，可能会轻微拖累美国经济增长。不过惠誉评级指出，短期内政府停摆对经济的影响预计将较为有限。 美国联邦政 ...

Core Viewpoint - Standard & Poor's (S&P) upgraded Morocco's long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings from "BB+/B" to "BBB-/A-3", restoring its investment-grade status lost during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 [1] Group 1: Rating Upgrade - Morocco is now the only African Eurobond issuer with an investment-grade rating [1] - The upgrade is attributed to Morocco's robust economic policies, enhanced fiscal discipline, and significant growth in foreign exchange reserves [1] - This rating increase will enable Morocco to secure international financing under more favorable conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's warns that the rise of "cryptoization" driven by stablecoins poses increasing challenges to monetary sovereignty and financial stability in emerging markets [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Monetary Sovereignty - The adoption of stablecoins is weakening the control central banks have over interest rates and exchange rates, as these currencies are often pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar [1][2]. - There is a risk of "deposit flight" from domestic banks to stablecoins or crypto wallets, which could affect bank liquidity and pose a potential threat to overall financial stability [1]. Group 2: Growth of Digital Assets - As of 2024, the number of global digital asset holders has reached approximately 562 million, reflecting a 33% increase from the previous year [1]. - The fastest growth in digital assets is observed in emerging markets such as Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa, driven by remittances, mobile payments, and inflation hedging needs [1]. Group 3: Systemic Risks of Stablecoins - Despite being perceived as relatively safe, the rapid growth of stablecoins introduces systemic vulnerabilities, including the risk of a bank run on reserves and potential costly government bailouts if they become unpegged [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Gaps and Imbalances - The global adoption of crypto assets shows significant regional imbalances, with less than one-third of countries implementing comprehensive digital asset regulations, exposing many economies to market volatility and systemic shocks [4]. - The regulatory landscape is highly fragmented, and the differing growth patterns between developed and emerging markets highlight the potential for financial instability as regulatory measures lag behind [4].

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲评级机构Scope Ratings周五宣布，将法国主权信用评级的展望下调至负面，但 维持其"AA-"评级不变。这是法国在两周内遭遇的第三次评级打击，凸显出该国在政治僵局与财政困境 双重压力下的信用恶化。 Scope在声明中指出，下调展望的主要原因是法国"显著疲弱的财政状况"和"更加复杂的政治前景"。此 前，国际评级机构惠誉和加拿大的多明尼克债券评级服务公司已经接连下调法国评级，这一系列负面举 措对法国金融市场造成冲击。 法国总统马克龙去年提前举行选举，导致执政党失去议会有效多数席位，使其削减财政赤字的计划陷入 瘫痪。本月早些时候，反对派联合迫使前总理Francois Bayrou辞职。随后，马克龙任命39岁的Sebastien Lecornu为两年内的第五位总理，并要求其在组建新政府前，先在预算问题上达成共识。 Scope警告称，如果缺乏进一步的财政改革措施，法国政府债务占GDP的比例预计将在2030年升至 125%，成为同级别国家中增幅最快之一。这一趋势不仅将威胁法国的财政可持续性，也可能引发欧洲 范围内更广泛的金融连锁反应。 法国国内反对"紧缩政策"的呼声日益高涨。全国工会组织计划 ...

转自：新华财经 【机构分析】 •巴克莱汇市策略师指出，过去几个月虽发生"异乎寻常的利空事件"，但美元并未延续2月至5月间的大 幅走软趋势，而是在相对窄幅区间内保持稳定。他们认为，市场预期美国经济将在未来几个月反弹，是 支撑美元韧性的关键因素。不过，该行也对美联储独立性面临的威胁表示谨慎，警惕潜在政策风险对美 元的长期影响。 •凯投宏观经济学家指出，尽管瑞士央行在9月25日暂停降息，将政策利率维持在0%不变，但未来仍有 可能将利率降至零以下。瑞士央行此次暂停降息是为应对美国高额贸易关税对经济增长的威胁，但在外 部压力持续、经济前景承压的背景下，瑞士央行对2025年通胀回升的预期可能被高估。随着实际经济数 据可能弱于预期，政策制定者或将被迫进一步放松货币政策。 •美国银行分析师指出，印尼央行上周意外降息，被视为屈从于总统推动增长的政治压力，其扩张性财 政政策与宽松货币政策的组合正对印尼盾构成"轻微负面影响"，并可能损害财政信誉。 •评级机构惠誉已将泰国主权信用展望由"稳定"下调至"负面"，主因公共财政风险上升与持续的政治不 确定性。 •杰富瑞指出，印度股市年初至今跑输亚洲同行，具备短期反弹基础。海外配置偏低但有望 ...

Group 1 - Jefferies indicates that a potential downgrade of France's sovereign rating could lead to forced selling of French government bonds by certain investors [1][3] - Political instability and fiscal challenges in France are currently exerting selling pressure on its bonds, which may intensify further [1] - The yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds has widened to 82 basis points, nearing the highest level since January [1] Group 2 - A downgrade in France's rating could push it into a lower credit quality category, prompting passive selling by Asian reserve management institutions [1][3] - Fitch has already downgraded France's rating from AA- to A+, which is four notches below AAA [3] - The next rating updates from Moody's and S&P are scheduled for October 24 and November 28, respectively, with a probability of at least one downgrade exceeding 50% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that France's sovereign credit rating has been downgraded by two agencies in one week, reflecting severe consequences of political and economic instability [1][2] - The recent political turmoil includes the collapse of Prime Minister Borne's government due to failed confidence votes on budget deficit reduction measures, leading to the appointment of a new Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, without stabilizing the political situation [1][2] - Morningstar DBRS indicates that the political environment and increasing government instability hinder the effectiveness of France's fiscal policy setting, raising execution risks for achieving fiscal targets in the coming years [1][2] Group 2 - Fitch downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from "AA-" to "A+" due to political divisions obstructing necessary reforms, which negatively impacts public finances and is expected to worsen public debt from 113.9% of GDP in 2025 to 121% by 2027 [2] - Political and fiscal turmoil has led to asset sell-offs in France, increasing borrowing costs relative to other European countries, with bond premiums nearly doubling since Macron's election call [2] - Despite exceeding growth expectations in the first half of the year, uncertainty is projected to lead to a more sluggish economy, as businesses and households hesitate on investment and consumption [2][3] Group 3 - Lecornu has not yet clarified how to negotiate with opposition lawmakers demanding tax increases and slower deficit reduction, with the primary task being to form a new government in a divided parliament [2][3] - Morningstar DBRS believes Lecornu's measures may be relatively weak, as previous proposals for significant tax increases and budget cuts were rejected by opposition votes [3] - The outlook for France's rating has been adjusted from "negative" to "stable," indicating some advantages as the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, but warns of potential further downgrades if structural fiscal imbalances and debt ratios continue to rise [3]

百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，美国各项经济数据放缓，关税战中最主要的谈判迟迟未取得进展，未来关税对美国 经济的冲击可能会更加明显，再叠加美国内部矛盾，美国经济衰退并非不可能，当下黄金走势可能就是这一预期的佐证。 技术面：黄金日线收中阳线，价格已经回归均线，过大的乖离率已经得到修复。1小时周期形成上升旗形，短线大概率还有新 高，日内可关注下方3675美元一线的支撑。 原油方面： 隔夜油价小幅反弹，但也仅仅只是反弹，油价的问题在于需求疲弱，而供应却在持续增加，这种矛盾不改变，油价难有好的表 现。 9月7日，OPEC+通过视频会议举行部长级监督委员会会议，达成了重要的产量政策决议，原则上同意从2025年10月起逐步增加 原油产量，初始增产幅度约为13.7万桶/天。这标志着OPEC+政策重心的重大转变，从过去的"维护油价"转向"争夺市场份额"。 黄金方面： 隔夜黄金再次刷新历史新高，短线有冲击3700美元一线的可能，多头取得绝对的主导权，短期内慎言见顶，黄金可能还会带给 我们更多惊喜。 评级机构穆迪的警告，可能使得市场再度担心美国会进入衰退。8月穆迪发出警告，称美国经济正处于"衰退边缘"，隔夜其首席 经济学家 ...