每经AI快讯，10月9日，国海证券股份有限公司公告，中诚信国际维持公司"25国海04"评级在AAA，评 级展望为稳定。中诚信国际肯定了国海证券股东实力较强、区域竞争优势显著、业务牌照齐全等正面因 素对公司整体经营及信用水平的支撑作用；同时，关注到经营易受外部环境影响、竞争实力有待提升、 股质业务风险化解情况需持续关注、风控及投行质控体系仍需持续优化等因素对公司经营及信用状况形 成的影响。 ...

此外，非开行具有出色的融资能力，能够以较为优惠的利率获得多币种融资贷款，以满足其在非洲 市场不断扩大的融资需求；同时其具有充足的储备金，能够支撑连续18个月的净支出。股东支持是其另 一张王牌，股东鼎力支持是其应对经济挑战并扩大区域影响力的重要支柱。 此次非开行获得AAA评级，展望稳定，足以显示出其将继续保持资金储备和稳定的现金流，同时 有效避免相关风险，尽管其对低评级国家贷款在逐步增加。 （原标题：穆迪对非开行授予AAA长期信用评级，展望稳定） 西非经济门户网10月7日报道，穆迪对非洲开发银行（BAD）授予AAA长期信用评级，此评级为穆 迪评级体系中的最高评级，展望稳定。此次评级展现了非开行金融系统的韧性及其保持低风险运作的能 力。 强健的资金基础是非开行获得此次AAA评级的关键因素。在第七次资本金整体增持后，到2032年 其在原来基础上可再增加31亿美元，近些年非开行负债率大幅下降，从2019年度的300%降至2024年的 208%，低于同类AAA评级的发展型银行均值。 ...

Core Insights - The contrasting fates of Lehman Brothers and AIG during the 2008 financial crisis highlight the critical decisions made in times of crisis and the common pitfalls that lead companies into trouble [2] Group 1: AIG's Rescue - AIG's rescue was met with strong public and political opposition, as the sentiment against Wall Street was at its peak, with the government stating it had no obligation to save speculators [5] - The decision to rescue AIG was driven by its systemic importance, as it was deeply integrated into the financial system, affecting around 74 million people through its insurance products and pension management [5] - The rescue process faced significant challenges, with AIG's funding gap expanding to nearly $100 billion within days, far exceeding its collateral value, leading the Federal Reserve to inject capital through a combination of preferred stock purchases and loans [7] Group 2: AIG's Downfall - AIG's downfall stemmed from breaking its own "safety boundaries," as it shifted focus from its core insurance business to high-yield derivative products, undermining its long-term stability [9] - The company sold a large volume of credit default swaps (CDS) without adequate reserves, exposing itself to high leverage and significant risk [10] - AIG failed to thoroughly analyze the underlying assets of the collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) it guaranteed, leading to a cash flow crisis when mortgage defaults rose, resulting in a vicious cycle of credit downgrades and collateral demands [12] Group 3: Lessons on Risk Management - AIG's experience illustrates three common risk traps: treating credit ratings as risk-free leverage, as seen in both AIG and Evergrande, which ultimately led to credit collapses [15] - Cross-industry ventures should be extensions of existing capabilities rather than starting from scratch, as AIG's foray into the unfamiliar CDS market demonstrated significant operational risks [17] - Relying on historical data to predict future risks can be dangerous, as AIG's use of past stock market crash models for new subprime products showed a failure to account for uncertainty and "black swan" events [17] Conclusion - The rise and fall of AIG transcends a single event, serving as a classic case study on risk and decision-making, emphasizing the importance of adhering to core competencies, valuing credit, and allowing for future uncertainties [19]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has upgraded Spain's rating to A3 and changed the outlook, forecasting a potential growth rate of approximately 1% to 1.6% for Spain [1] Group 1 - Spain's debt level is expected to continue a moderate downward trend, projected to decline to around 100% or slightly below by 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai government aims to restore confidence in the economy following Fitch's downgrade of Thailand's economic outlook from "stable" to "negative" due to increasing risks to public finances amid ongoing political instability [1] Group 1: Government Response - Prime Minister Anutin stated that the negative outlook adjustment is attributed to various past factors and emphasized the need to enhance confidence to potentially reverse the downgrade [1] - The government plans to implement prudent economic policies to prevent further deterioration of the national debt burden [1] - All necessary measures will be taken to avoid another downgrade of the country's credit rating [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Fitch downgraded Thailand's rating due to increasing risks to public finances in the context of persistent political instability [1] - Finance Minister Ekniti highlighted the importance of paying attention to the assessments provided by rating agencies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has downgraded Thailand's credit outlook from "stable" to "negative" due to increased political uncertainty and deteriorating economic growth prospects [1] Group 1: Credit Rating Changes - Fitch maintained Thailand's long-term foreign currency issuer rating at BBB+ despite the outlook downgrade [1] - This follows a similar downgrade by Moody's, indicating a trend in credit rating assessments for Thailand [1] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - The prolonged political uncertainty has heightened risks to public finances, contributing to a weakening fiscal buffer for the country [1] - As of August, Thailand's total government debt reached 59.4% of GDP, nearing the median level for countries rated at "BBB" [1] Group 3: Government Response - The new Prime Minister, Anutin, faces challenges in addressing the economic downturn and has pledged to implement measures to stimulate the sluggish economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The credit ratings for China State Construction Engineering Corporation have been updated by three major international credit rating agencies, indicating a stable outlook from S&P and Fitch, while Moody's has a negative outlook [1]. Group 1: Credit Ratings - S&P Global Ratings assigned a long-term issuer credit rating of "A" with a stable outlook to the company [1]. - Moody's Investors Service assigned a long-term issuer credit rating of "A2" with a negative outlook [1]. - Fitch Ratings assigned both a long-term default rating and a senior unsecured rating of "A-" with a stable outlook [1].

穆迪预测，受全球大宗商品需求反弹、基础设施投资和通胀放缓的推动， 撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济增速将达到约4.7%，这一势头将增强财政状况，并支 持稳定的主权信用评级。 （原标题：非洲信用评级随着经济增长而趋于稳定） 据《非洲简报》9月20日报道，穆迪评级表示，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的信 用前景保持稳定，预计2025年和2026年经济增长将加速，这有助于各国政府管 理债务并增加收入。 尽管预测乐观，但一些经济体，尤其是南非，其经济增速可能低于1.5%， 而尼日利亚和肯尼亚则面临高借贷成本和持续通胀。穆迪警告称，税收疲软以 及选举前的政治风险也给前景蒙上阴影。 穆迪预计，随着收入增加和支出限制的逐步落实，债务将逐步减少。然而，据 彭博社报道，融资成本仍然高昂，各国政府需要持续改革以避免财政紧张。 ...

Core Insights - Following Fitch's downgrade of France's credit rating, market attention is shifting towards Italy's rating decision, which is expected on Friday [1] - There is a possibility of an upgrade for Italy's rating, supported by improvements in the country's budget balance [1] - Currently, Fitch rates Italy at BBB with a positive outlook, indicating potential for an upgrade to BBB+ [1] - Economists from Citigroup also acknowledge the likelihood of an upgrade for Italy's rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's Ratings has upgraded AXA SA's insurance financial strength rating to Aa2 from Aa3, reflecting a stable outlook due to the company's reinforced business profile, improved profitability, and robust capital position [1][2]. Group Performance - AXA's debt ratings were raised by one notch across various categories, including junior subordinated debt, senior unsecured debt, and preferred stock, indicating an overall improvement in creditworthiness [2]. - The commercial paper rating was affirmed at P-1, and ratings for AXA's European operating subsidiaries and XL Bermuda Ltd were also upgraded to Aa2 with a stable outlook [3]. Financial Strength - AXA's Solvency II ratio stands at 220% as of Q2 2025, consistent with levels since 2021, showcasing strong capital adequacy [4]. - The company has shifted away from life underwriting and reduced market risk exposure, enhancing capital resilience while maintaining strong internal capital generation despite significant shareholder distributions [4]. Profitability and Earnings Stability - AXA's profitability has significantly improved, with returns on capital reaching approximately 9% in 2023 and 2024, compared to an average of 6% from 2019 to 2022 [5]. - Earnings stability has increased, with the property and casualty segment now contributing around two-thirds of underlying profits, while life and health segments continue to provide steady contributions [6]. Risk Exposure - AXA's exposure to French sovereign risk is moderate, with domestic government bonds accounting for about 5% of invested assets and French operations representing around 24% of group earnings, supporting resilience to potential market volatility [7]. Outlook - The outlook for AXA and its core operating entities is stable, with expectations to preserve business model strength, sustain profitability, and maintain solid capital adequacy [8].