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未来出口面临政策压力 PVC期货仍以低位震荡为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-27 06:07
Industry Overview - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises decreased to 76.57%, down 0.12% week-on-week and 0.67% year-on-year. The calcium carbide method utilization was at 74.38%, down 0.34% week-on-week and 1.91% year-on-year, while the ethylene method increased to 81.64%, up 0.38% week-on-week and 1.68% year-on-year [1] - The maintenance loss for PVC production last week was 80,500 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the previous period [1] - The current PVC industry inventory stands at 1.4249 million tons, showing a slight decrease from last week. The overall inventory (upstream + social) decreased by 1.47% week-on-week [1] Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures noted that with maintenance gradually recovering and high absolute inventory levels, the fundamental support is insufficient. However, prices are at relatively low levels, and domestic policy expectations suggest that PVC will mainly experience low-level fluctuations in the short term [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures observed that while pressure from manufacturers and society has decreased, the overall situation remains under high pressure. Production has slightly declined due to maintenance, and domestic demand is stable. Export activities in September continued to show positive trends. Recent stability in calcium carbide prices has not significantly supported costs, indicating a continuation of a weak market environment, with PVC likely operating within a bottom range due to potential policy pressures on exports [3]