徐绍祖（联系人） PE农膜订单好于预期， 高产量压力暂时缓解 聚烯烃周报 2025/11/22 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场止跌后大幅反弹，大宗商品市场跟涨。 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（期货＞成本＞现货），聚丙烯周度涨幅（成本＞现货＞期货）。 成本端：上周WTI原油上涨1.62%，Brent原油上涨1.28%，煤价无变动0.00%，甲醇下跌-4.52%，乙烯下跌-0.47%，丙烯上涨2.94%， 丙烷上涨2.52%。成本端支撑尚存。 供应端：PE产能利用率83.77%，环比上涨0.06%，同比去年上涨2.17%，较5年同期下降-7.82%。PP产能利用率77.71%，环比下降- 3.85%，同 ...

2025/11/21 | 指标 | | 11月20日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | | | 1600 1200 | ====== 18/19 == | | ===== 19/20 ----- 23/24 | == - 24/25 | | == - 25/26 | | | | 83 | -15 | | | | | | | | | | 天津 | 33 | -5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | | | | 日照 | -17 | -15 | 400 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -17 | -45 | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | -400 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 | 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 10/27 | 12/28 | | | ...

注散信念众号 | 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可 【 2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年11月21日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2512合约 | 932.56 | 937.00 | -4.44 | -0.47% | 7L/5 | | AG2512合约 | 12050 | 12148 | -98 | -0.81% | 元/干克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 张联帽 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4076.70 | 4078.30 | -1.60 | -0.04% | | | COMEX白银主力合约 | 50.36 | 51.07 | -0.71 | -1.39% | 美元/盎司 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价收跌，其中 WTI 12 月合约收盘下跌 0.3 美元至 59.14 美 | | | | 元/桶，跌幅 0.5%。布伦特 1 月合约收盘下跌 0.13 美元/桶，至 | | | | 63.38 美元/桶，跌幅 0.2%。SC2512 以 456.7 元/桶收盘，下跌 1.7 | | | | 元/桶，跌幅 0.37%。宏观方面，由于政府停摆而推迟了许久发布 | | | | 的劳工统计局最新报告显示，8 月出现下降的非农就业人数当月 | | | | 增加了 11.9 万。与此同时，失业率上升至近四年来的最高水平。 | | | | 非农数据不及预期令市场承压。库存方面数据显示，11 月 20 日 | | | | 止当周，阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特卫普 ARA 枢纽的柴油库存下 | | | 原油 | 降近 5%。当周，欧洲 ARA 枢纽的柴油库存为 218 万吨，之前一 | 震荡 | | | 周为 228.5 万吨。当周，欧洲 ARA 枢 ...

整体需求提升空间有限，企业控产延续，将限制产能利用率提升幅度。br2601合约短线预计在10450-1080 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 0区间波动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10520 | -185 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 72012 | 634 | | | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | -30 | 10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2980 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 10600 | 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10550 | 0 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | | | | | | 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Market sentiment is cautious, with copper prices oscillating. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract is expected to range between 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton. Follow demand changes and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [1]. Zinc - The fundamentals offer limited support for continuous upward movement of SHFE zinc, which is likely to oscillate in the short term. The main contract is expected to range between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Look out for demand improvement and non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [3]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains in a supply - demand surplus, with prices likely to remain weak. The main contract is expected to range between 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum is caught between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals, with the medium - term supply expected to be tight [4]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and demand shows regional differences. With positive semiconductor sentiment, long positions can be held. Monitor macro changes and Myanmar's supply recovery [6]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will stay firm, supported by costs. The main contract is expected to range between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Track scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory changes [9]. Nickel - The nickel market faces macro pressure, and the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to range between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian policies [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has insufficient macro - level drivers and weak demand. The supply pressure remains. The main contract is expected to range between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Monitor steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market shows strong short - term momentum. The market may continue to be strong, followed by wide - range oscillations. Be cautious when chasing long positions at current levels [15]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures may decline. Monitor inventory pressure, spot support, and demand orders [16]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider short - selling or hedging at high prices [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The refined - scrap spread increased by 8.98% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, imports were 0.3343 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.45% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production was 0.6172 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, imports were 0.0227 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [3]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Alumina prices in different regions were mostly stable [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [4]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 291,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09% [6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 21,450 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread in different regions decreased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.645 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 117,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.56%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased to 897 yuan/nickel point [11]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production in October was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Imports in September were 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained at 12,700 yuan/ton. The raw material prices such as nickel ore and chromium iron decreased [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.8217 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Indonesia's production was 0.4235 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose to 88,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.72%. The lithium ore price also increased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. Demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [15]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, while futures prices rose to 54,625 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts increased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74%. Monthly production was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Industrial silicon spot prices were unchanged, while futures prices rose to 9,390 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts changed [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The national开工率 was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the concentrated arrival of pure benzene in China has led to a rapid increase in port inventories and a weakening of the basis. The domestic production start - up continues to rise, while the downstream start - up is weak. For styrene, port inventories continue to decline due to export boosts and low domestic start - up, but there is a resumption expectation at the end of November. Recently, the increase in pure benzene inventory and the decrease in styrene inventory are conducive to the short - term expansion of the EB - BZ spread [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis, main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first and third contracts. Also, EB's main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third contracts are presented [7][10][15] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profits, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the difference between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the difference between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the difference between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [18][21][36] 3. Inventories and Start - up Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, styrene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [38][40][43] 4. Start - up and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures present the start - up rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][52] 5. Start - up and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures include the start - up rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [58][64][82]

有色金属日报 2025-11-20 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 隔夜美股企稳，铜价回升，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 0.98%至 10802 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 86190 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 17375 至 157875 吨，增量主要来自亚洲仓库，注销仓单比例反弹，Cash/3M 维持贴水。国内上期所仓单减少 0.3 至 5.8 万吨，上海地区现货升水期货上调至 85 元/吨，市场成 交情绪延续较好。广东地区库存环比减少，现货升水期货 35 元/吨，持货商挺价意愿强。国内铜现 货进口亏损缩至 300 元 ...

Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon rising over 4%, while soda ash fell over 3% [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [6] - The bond market saw a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.41%, reflecting increased market divergence on long-term interest rates [7] Commodity Insights - Palm oil prices increased significantly, reaching a three-week high, while soybean oil also saw a rise, indicating strong demand despite a weak supply outlook for Malaysian palm oil [8][9] - The coal market is under pressure due to concerns over potential supply increases, with the focus on energy production stability during the heating season [11] - Gold and silver futures rose by 2.01% and 3.84% respectively, influenced by recent employment data indicating a decrease in private sector jobs [12][13] Specific Commodity Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 6.18% due to high demand from the power and storage sectors, although there are concerns about potential supply disruptions from upcoming mine restarts [14] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts rose by 4.57% and 4.63% respectively, driven by reduced production rates in key regions [15] - Soda ash prices fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a new low, reflecting weak demand and a slowdown in new orders [16] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index declined by 2.66%, with a notable drop in freight rates for container shipments, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [19]

| 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/11/13 | 367.09 | 406.14 | -4.95 | 687.85 | -281.71 | 30.65 | 39.05 | | 2025/11/14 | 371.73 | 414.41 | -5.40 | 710.26 | -295.85 | 31.99 | 42.68 | | 2025/11/17 | 366.33 | 415.16 | -6.17 | 707.49 | -292.33 | 31.67 | 48.83 | | 2025/11/18 | 359.79 | 411.23 | -6.97 | 732. ...