GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 原油 本周原油整体呈现震荡上行的走势，均价环比上涨。地缘局势方上，目前美伊双方已经进行两轮间接谈判，但仍未取得实质进展，市场对美 伊冲突的担忧仍存，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军在霍尔木兹海峡附近举行演习。供应方面，委内瑞拉石油供应预计增加，OPEC+一季度仍维持原 油产量稳定，但市场对于该联盟自4月份起开始增产的预期有所升温。市场等待美伊第三轮核谈，美国态度上更倾向于与伊朗继续核谈，这将引 导油价降温下行，短期国际原油价格或保持震荡格局。 PX&PTA 国内PX负荷无变化，估值跟随原油冲高回落，PX加工费维持在305美元/吨左右，PX二季度供应收紧远月预期依然较好，且地缘不确定性仍 存，下方支撑较强。周内有PTA装置 ...

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 85.04 84.72 0.32 开工率 70.610 70.610 0.000 产量 79.09 78.81 0.28 产线条数 209 209 0 重质产量 42.3 41.98 0.32 产量 103.8365 103.5965 0.24 轻质产量 36.79 36.83 -0.04 厂内库存 189.44 158.8 30.64 库存 7600.8 5535.2 2065.6 重质库存 89.59 75.64 13.95 库存可用天数 33.8 24.4 9.4 轻质库存 99.85 83.16 16.69 库存可用天数 14.26 13.17 1.09 产销率 61.12 99.13 -38.01 天然气利润 -142.26 -166.55 24.29 氨碱法毛利 -90.15 -89.25 -0.9 石油焦利润 43.93 43.93 0 联产法毛利 -1.5 -32.5 31 煤制气利润 -30.79 -28.87 -1.92 基差 -40 -50 10 基差 -31 -61 30 1-5价差 -109 -110 1 1-5价差 -159 -155 ...

能源化工日报 2026-02-27 2026/02/27 原油 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 INE 主力原油期货收跌 6.00 元/桶，跌幅 1.23%，报 483.60 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 53.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.81%，报 2987.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 4.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.12%，报 3460.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 15.99 百万桶至 435.80 百万桶，环比累库 3.81%；SPR 补库 0.00 百万桶至 415.44 百万桶，环比补库 0.00%；汽油库存去库 1.01 百万桶 至 254.83 百万桶，环比去库 0.40%；柴油库存累库 0.25 百万桶至 120.35 百万桶，环比累库 0.21%；燃料油库存去库 0.11 百万桶至 23.04 百万桶，环比去库 0.46%；航空煤油库存去库 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xusha ...

能源化工日报 2026-02-26 2026/02/26 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.60 元/桶，跌幅 0.33%，报 488.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 10.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.34%，报 2943.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 41.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.18%，报 3436.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据（PLATT 口径）出炉，汽油库存累库 1.91 百万桶至 9.89 百万桶， 环比累库 23.99%；柴油库存去库 0.30 百万桶至 3.03 百万桶，环比去库 9.12%；燃料油库存去 库 0.76 百万桶至 7.63 百万桶，环比去库 9.07%；总成品油累库 0.85 百万桶至 20.55 百万桶， 环比累库 4.30%。 【策略观点】 当前油价已经出现一定涨幅，并已经计价较高的地缘溢价。我们认为短期内，伊朗的断供缺口 仍存，但考虑到我们此前地缘系列专题指出委内瑞拉增产即将超预期的预判以及 OPEC 后续的 增产恢复预期，当前油价应予以逢高止盈，并以中期布局为主要操作思路。 甲醇 马桂炎（联系人） 聚酯分析师 从业资格号：F031 ...

软商品日报 2026/02/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

2025年的全球制造业没有按"贸易冲突=工业衰退"的剧本走。摩根大通把这一年的韧性拆成几条线索：全球 工业产出（IP）在经历2022-2024的低迷后重新抬头，且在贸易摩擦最激烈的阶段，商品部门反而跑赢服务 业。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通全球经济研究团队的Joseph Lupton在24日中的研报中表示，2025年的工业表 现"打破了与GDP的历史紧密关系"。这也是整篇研报最想解释的"反常"：为什么增长没塌、库存没拖、而且 不只是科技在撑。 他们把答案落在三个变量上：一是需求端由资本开支（尤其是设备投资）主导，二是AI热潮确实推高了科技 产出，但更关键的是非科技部门从连续两年收缩回到正增长，三是库存从"拖累"变成"偏瘦"，给后续增长留 下了弹性空间。 往前看，研报给出的判断不算激进：在终端需求仍稳、库存偏低且需求可能继续扩散的情形下，未来几个月 全球工业产出仍可能再走出2%-3%的年化增速。但风险同样是"双向"的——科技回归更可持续的节奏、以及 劳动力市场停滞对零售的约束，可能把增长重新压回去；关税相关的司法变化，则被认为难以改变美国"贸 易冲突"的主线。 2025的2.4%并非一口气冲出来：一季度前置很猛 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is continuously disturbed by the progress of the US - Iran negotiations, and the price of crude oil is oscillating strongly. The chemical industry has a good start after the Spring Festival. Although there is inventory accumulation, it may continue the oscillating pattern. The overall outlook is that the crude oil will maintain high volatility, and the chemical prices will continue to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: API crude oil has a large inventory build - up, and the US - Iran geopolitical situation continuously disturbs the market. The supply is expected to be loose this year, but the geopolitical premium is significant. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2][7]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price rises, and the asphalt futures price goes up. The long - term supply of raw materials is expected to be abundant, and the current price is over - valued. It is expected to oscillate, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [6][7]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price still has a high geopolitical premium. The increase in Venezuelan oil production is expected to put long - term pressure on it. It is expected to oscillate, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [8]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate upwards. Although it faces some negative factors, its current valuation is low. It is expected to oscillate and follow the crude oil fluctuations [9]. - **PX**: The cost boost and the warm commodity sentiment resonate, and the price center moves up. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the mid - term logic of buying on dips remains [10]. - **PTA**: Supported by cost and tariff policies, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of the polyester industry. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: After the festival, it makes up for the price increase. The fundamentals in Q1 are better than those in Q4, but the inventory pressure is still large. It is expected to oscillate [12][13]. - **Styrene**: After the festival, it makes up for the price increase. The seasonal inventory build - up height in February is adjusted downwards, but the support strength declines. It is expected to oscillate [14][15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price rebound is limited due to supply - demand pressure, and the support below is enhanced. It is expected to maintain range consolidation in the short - term [16][18]. - **Short - fiber**: Supported by cost and tariff reduction, it is beneficial for export. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [18][19]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost boost is obvious. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the support for processing fees below is enhanced [20]. - **Methanol**: After the festival, the overseas geopolitical disturbance continues, and it oscillates widely. It is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress between the US and Iran [22][23]. - **Urea**: Driven by post - festival demand, it oscillates strongly. Although there is upward momentum, the upward space is limited [24]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The geopolitical disturbance boosts the sentiment, and it rebounds slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28]. - **PP**: The basis is weak, and the futures price follows the crude oil to rebound slightly in the short - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [29]. - **PL**: Supported by the spot and the rising oil price, it rebounds. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [30]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance still exists, and it may oscillate. The high inventory forms a suppression, and the market sentiment is supported by the geopolitical disturbance and the spring inspection expectation [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectation, it oscillates. The high inventory suppresses, but the spring inspection and downstream restocking support it [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each variety [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of each variety also have corresponding changes, which can reflect the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the inventory situation to a certain extent [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. have changed, which can help analyze the relative price relationships between different varieties [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific monitoring data and analysis content are provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the commodity index all show different degrees of increase, reflecting the overall upward trend of the market [275][276].

| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，外盘油价走强，节后首日内盘大概率高开补涨。地缘：地 | | 原油 | | 缘政治主导油价，美伊谈判达成协议难度较大，地缘落地前油价偏强；核 | | ★ | 看多 | 心驱动：供给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线上会议，消息称 OPEC+ | | | 将于 | 4 月继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘 | | | | 进展。 | | | | 成本端油价攀升，成本端利好，液化气震荡偏强。成本端油价短期受地缘 | | LPG ★ | 看多 | 扰动波动加剧，地缘落地前成本端利好；供需双增，商品量与下游化工开 | | | | 工率均上升；库存端偏利空，港口库存连续上升。 | | | | 春节期间现货信息停滞，预计节后开盘跟随成本端震荡偏强。节前标品装 | | L | 反弹 | 置陆续回归，基差持续偏弱震荡，两油石化库存降至 46 万吨，处于 5 年 | | ★ | | 同期最低位，预计节后石化库存累库至 90 万吨左右。后市检修力度并不 | | | ...

客户端 来源：期货日报 春节长假期间，外盘农产品期货市场暗藏波澜，表现偏强。截至2月23日下午，豆油、小麦、白糖等品 种涨幅在3%左右。马年农产品市场是否会出现较好的投资机会呢？市场人士认为，春节长假过后，粮 棉油糖、干鲜林果品，以及肉蛋类商品价格走势将围绕供应、需求、库存这三个重要变量展开，农产品 市场整体热度攀升。 蓄势待发 三大核心变量定乾坤 春耕在即，万物萌动，农产品期市也站在了新的十字路口。在经历了长假前后的波动后，市场究竟在交 易什么？未来真正的机会又在哪里？答案指向一个关键词——核心变量。 "对农产品期货市场而言，核心变量集中在供应、需求、库存三个方面，交易逻辑更是在充分分析和评 判这三个重要变量运行态势的基础上产生的。"河南省郑州市农产品期货交易者张继学告诉期货日报记 者，春节长假过后，粮棉油糖、干鲜林果，以及肉蛋类商品价格的发展趋势均将围绕这三个重要变量展 开，农产品市场行情将呈现"多点开花"的场景。 棉花、白糖方面，重要变量是政策，情绪化行情特征明显。"经过去年11月下旬至今年1月上旬的快速拉 升后，棉花期货主力合约价格在14500~15000元/吨区间震荡，市场主要围绕新季棉花种植面积及 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The urea market is affected by news, with the futures market showing a strong trend. The current urea guidance price remains unchanged, and manufacturers have no pressure in pre - holiday orders. It is expected that the price will remain firm before the Spring Festival [2] - In January, some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers' pre - holiday orders are mostly completed. Some off - season reserve supplies will be released in February. Near the Spring Festival, the compound fertilizer production rate decreased, while the melamine production rate increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Overall, the inventory in urea factories decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [2] - Due to the situation in Iran, the international urea price has risen. India's RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intention of 150,000 tons. The follow - up needs to focus on export dynamics, off - season reserve release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On February 12, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,843 yuan/ton (+46). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,810 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,800 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,810 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-46), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (-36), and in Jiangsu was - 33 yuan/ton (-46) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of February 12, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 90.59% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), while the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 235 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,049 yuan/ton (+1) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report does not provide specific information on foreign market prices and export profit other than the export profit data mentioned above [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19% (-5.60%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.77% (+2.82%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillation [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 when the spread is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]