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核心城市二手房价格好转
China Post Securities· 2026-02-09 09:10
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes a continued "stabilizing expectations" policy from both central and local governments, with measures aimed at revitalizing idle land and housing while prohibiting their use for commodity housing construction [5] - Core city second-hand housing prices are showing improvement, indicating a recovery in confidence in the second-hand market, with better listing and negotiation conditions leading to an upward shift in transaction structures [5] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 123.24 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 870.59 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% [6] - The average transaction area over the past four weeks in these cities was 131.24 million square meters, down 18.5% year-on-year but up 0.8% month-on-month [6] - First-tier cities saw a significant year-on-year increase of 33.7% in average transaction area, while second-tier cities increased by 16.8% [6] Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - In the last week, the second-hand housing transaction area in 20 cities was 221.16 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date area of 1,330.26 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 27.8% [20] - The average transaction area over the past four weeks in these cities was 233.48 million square meters, also reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.8% [22] Land Market Transactions - Last week, 100 major cities saw 23 new residential land supplies and 34 residential land transactions, with an average transaction price of 4,501 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 2.21% [27] - The average transaction price for commercial land was 2,813.75 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 2.76% [27] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index rose by 0.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 1.33%, resulting in a relative outperformance of 1.34 percentage points [29] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index fell by 0.78%, while the overall Hang Seng Index dropped by 3.22%, with the property services index outperforming the overall index by 2.44 percentage points [29]