1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of the year, the economy exceeded market expectations, but the effectiveness of domestic policies is weakening, and the full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the front and low in the back. The bond market adjustment pressure is controllable, and there is a long - term bullish view on the bond market [1][2][3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Performance Differentiation - **Economic Data Overview**: In June, the industrial added - value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. The total retail sales of consumer goods (TRSCG) growth rate dropped to 4.8%. From January to June, the real estate development investment growth rate decreased to - 11.2%, and the infrastructure cumulative growth rate dropped to 8.9%. The GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3% [9][10] - **Production End**: In June, the industrial production was strong. The growth rate of the added - value of mining, manufacturing, and the production and supply of electricity, gas, and water was 6.1%, 7.4%, and 1.8% respectively. The service industry production growth rate was 6.0%, slightly down from the previous value. In the future, the high - speed growth of industrial production may not be sustainable, while the service industry production growth rate will remain at a high level [12][13][14] - **Demand End - Investment**: From January to June, the cumulative investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry was 7.5%, and the investment growth rate of infrastructure continued to decline. The real estate development investment growth rate was - 11.2%, showing an accelerated decline. In the future, the decline direction of manufacturing investment is certain, the infrastructure growth rate has a decline pressure, and the real estate industry depends on policies to stop the decline [20][25][27] - **Demand End - Consumption**: In June, the TRSCG increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the growth rate declined again. It is expected that the TRSCG growth rate will decline slightly in the second half of the year [32][33] 3.2 Bond Market Outlook - In July, the bond market should be mainly oscillating. In the short - term, there may be some upward momentum, but it is difficult to break through the mid - June high. In the long - term, the bond market is still bullish. The strategy is to lay out long - term long positions on dips [3][36] - **Strategies**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish, focus on the strategy of laying out long - term long positions on dips; the opportunity for futures positive arbitrage has significantly decreased; the curve strategy should be on the sidelines for the time being [38][39]