固收大类资产的政策预期分歧 20250721 摘要 当前市场逻辑从经济增长压力转向反内卷和需求端拉动政策，大宗商品 市场表现强势，对债市构成情绪压力。经济数据验证基本面稳定，但三 季度可能边际走弱，反内卷政策预期增强。 各类资产对宏观环境及政策理解存在分歧：债券市场调整有限，预期较 弱；权益市场上涨，期待政策；大宗商品多头情绪高涨，预期最强。短 期内分歧可能维持，但长期难以持续。 6 月信贷投放同比多增，但受去年低基数影响。7 月下旬票据利率回落， 信贷投放减少，预示三季度经济可能边际走弱。各类资产投资者对政策 预期不一，导致市场走势分化。 大宗商品和债券市场对宏观环境理解存在分歧，若大宗商品预期正确， 债市将面临调整压力。资金面稳定，存单利率合理，三季度资金面波动 风险不大，债市难大幅调整。 当前十年期国债收益率约为 1.67%，30 年期国债收益率接近 1.9%。若 收益率上行过快，可能出现超调，为配置盘提供机会。月底政策兑现窗 口或带来预期差，可布局高收益国债。 Q&A 近期债券市场和大类资产的预期定价变化是什么？ 近期债券市场和大类资产的预期定价变化主要受到市场情绪压制，整体处于调 整状态。权益市场和 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-07-21 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《【中邮固收】中低评级产业债流动性 上升——流动性打分周报 20250715》 - 2025.07.15 固收周报 大类资产的政策预期分歧 ⚫ 风险提示： 流动性超预期收紧 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ——流动性周报 20250720 ⚫ 大类资产的政策预期分歧 观点回顾：债券的"宏观叙事"发生变化，调整是交易机会。当 前债市"宏观叙事"的变化，更多是对前期"一致预期"交易的反噬， 给等不来的长端利率下行一个反弹的理由。长端收益率下行的胜率并 未实质性降低，赔率在调整中有所提升。 预期在第三步，现实在第一步。现实的"第一步"是前期政策支 持和年中附近的"强出口"前移，经济景气仍在维持。债市在 6 月份 第二周至 7 月第一周，已经集中交易了"第二步"的三季度景气边际 弱化，7 月中至今在交易"反内卷"和需求端拉动政策预期的"第三 步"。7 月中旬票据贴现利率再次明显回落，即二季 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is around $3240.55 per ounce, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.4% [1] - Gold has experienced a downward trend, with a recent low of $3267.07, approaching a critical support level of $3260 [1] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies are mixed, with weak U.S. economic data supporting rate cuts, while a rebound in the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields is pressuring gold's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The daily chart indicates a bearish trend for gold, with a recent break below the support level of $3370, confirming a downward adjustment [2] - The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover, suggesting further downside potential for gold prices [2] - The short-term trading strategy recommends focusing on short positions during any rebounds, particularly around the resistance levels of $3260-$3270 [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices have dipped to $63.16, reflecting concerns over potential global economic recession due to unpredictable tariff strategies from the U.S. [5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has disrupted global supply chains and affected investor confidence in long-term energy demand [5] - Current oil price trends indicate a downward trajectory, with expectations of further declines unless there are signs of trade resolution or demand recovery [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart shows a downward trend for oil prices, with a potential target of $50 following a recent low of $55.20 [6] - The short-term outlook remains bearish, with recommendations to focus on short positions during any price rebounds, particularly around resistance levels of $59.0-$60.0 [6]