智通财经APP注意到，华尔街的宏观交易员正迈向自2009年以来业绩最佳的一年，因客户纷纷押注全球 各大央行利率政策的转变。 根据Crisil Coalition Greenwich的数据，高盛集团、摩根大通和花旗集团等公司今年预计将从固定收益、 信贷和大宗商品交易中产生1650亿美元的收入，较2024年增长10%。 全球央行的利率调整、关税政策的不确定性、对财政赤字膨胀的担忧以及收益率曲线趋陡，尤其扩大了 利率交易员的费用池。在十国集团利率业务中，收入预计将达到400亿美元的五年来高点。 Coalition Greenwich预计2026年将出现类似的大幅增长，届时行业收入预计为1620亿美元，仅下降2%。 高盛欧洲利率产品交易主管尼基尔·乔拉利亚在接受采访时表示："央行正在将其政策利率和资产负债表 正常化，但尚未正常化的是庞大的发行规模。这些情况大多会持续存在。我们没有理由认为我们在2025 年看到的活跃水平不会在2026年重现。" 固定收益交易员有望迎来2009年以来最好的一年 新兴市场宏观交易员预计将获得至少20年来最大的350亿美元收入。信贷交易员预计将获得270亿美元， 大宗商品交易员预计将获得11 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：太阳投研札记） 洪灏在《展望 2026：持而盈之》上下篇中，从全球经济格局、中美市场表现、政策走向及资产配置等 多个维度，分析了 2026 年市场的风险与机遇，核心观点可总结为以下两大方面： 特朗普发起的全球贸易战未能改善美国贸易赤字，反而因中国制造业优势和稀土行业整合，让美国谈判 筹码不足；关税政策推高美国通胀预期，进一步复杂化美联储决策。 美国经济与市场：风险积聚，泡沫隐现 1. 货币政策失去独立性，陷入 "三难" 困境 美联储货币政策逐渐从属于美国财政政策，因美国政府债台高筑，美联储需通过购债为财政赤字融资， 其决策受经济增长、通胀高企和金融稳定三重矛盾制约。 美国回购市场流动性紧张，隔夜逆回购工具近乎归零，美联储大概率将停止量化紧缩并重启扩表，但扩 表方式（买短端 / 长端债券）将影响资产价格走势，短期利好市场，长期恐因久期问题难改美股冲高回 落趋势。 2.经济周期步入晚期，半导体与经济周期背离 量化模型显示美国经济未来数月将放缓，而半导体周期仍在冲高，美股涨幅集中于少数科技巨头和 AI 相关企业，市场宽度持续收窄，科技股估值已接近甚至超过 2000 年互联网泡沫水平。 美国私 ...

朋友们，今天带你们吃一口热乎乎的经济大瓜！谁能想到，一份来自美国的数据报告，竟然比悬疑大片还刺激，直接把全球资本市场搅得风起云涌！ 这份就业报告，原本该在秋天就和大家见面，结果硬生生拖到了初冬才"压轴登场"。这感觉，就像你都已经穿上羽绒服了，才收到夏天网购的短袖——数据 早就和现实脱节啦！ 乍一看，11.9万的新增就业岗位，简直闪亮到晃眼，把市场预期甩开几条街。可离奇的是，美债价格却像坐上窜天猴一样往上冲，十年期收益率直接掉到 4.11%。这波操作的精髓在哪？表面是经济利好的烟花，实际上却是市场在疯狂下注：美联储马上要拧开降息的水龙头了！ 数据里头的门道可深了。新增岗位看着热闹，可懂行的人都知道，这里头多半是兼职和零工在撑场子。你想想，一个人为了生活拼三份工，统计表上就华丽 变身成三个就业岗位——这哪是经济腾飞，分明是打工人的辛酸加倍！ 其实美国经济早就陷入了一个"三明治困局"。最上层是越滚越大的债务雪球，光利息支出就比军费还烧钱。中间是日益撕裂的贫富差距，普通人的钱包越来 越瘪。最下层是那些曾经风光无限的科技概念，如今也开始显露疲态。 真正让华尔街精英们坐不住的，是那个偷偷摸摸涨到4.4%的失业率。别看只涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC is restructuring its trading division to become a major player in debt financing, driven by CEO Georges Elhedery [1][2] Group 1: Restructuring Details - The G10 currency rates trading department will merge with the foreign exchange, emerging markets rates, and commodities departments to form a new global macro department [1] - Derivatives clearing services will be integrated into the global equities team [1] - All remaining debt market operations, including high-yield and investment-grade bond trading, will fall under a unified "Global Credit and Financing" framework [1] Group 2: Leadership and Management Changes - The new global macro team will be led by Volkan Benihasim, while Franck Lacour will continue to oversee the equities business [2] - A brief internal selection process will be conducted for the new head of Global Credit and Financing, currently led by Antoine Maurel and Monish Tahilramani [2] - Global debt markets head Mehmet Mazi will explore other opportunities as part of the changes [2] Group 3: Strategic Goals - HSBC aims to leverage its large balance sheet to gain more business in trading and markets [2] - The initiatives reflect HSBC's ambition to become a "financing giant," with a focus on prudent technology investments aligned with its leadership goals in financing and trading banking [2]

4. 信贷与证券化产品：风险偏好回升，结构分化：企业信贷将受益于资本开支增加、并购活动复苏及政 策宽松，美国和欧洲市场均呈现高收益债（HY）跑赢投资级债（IG）的格局，偏好5-10年期品种以获 取滚动收益，金融板块表现优于周期板块；证券化产品受美欧放松监管提振，建议增持短期品种、下沉 至BBB-级渠道贷款证券，超配机构MBS相对投资级信贷，美国房价与住房活动维持区间波动。 5. 大宗商品：金属强于能源：原油供需平衡偏软，布伦特原油锚定60美元/桶；黄金为首选品种，宏观 因素与强劲实物需求支撑，目标价4500美元/盎司；工业金属中看好铜和铝，二者均面临显著供应挑 战；农产品中看好大豆价格，预计12-18个月目标价11.7美元/蒲式耳，高于玉米的4.7美元/蒲式耳。 6. 核心风险提示：AI投资周期突然终止、市场风险情绪过热、美国以外地区增长超预期、美联储政策 反应函数转变；此外，美国关税政策不确定性、全球贸易紧张局势、新兴市场财政失衡仍可能引发局部 波动。 1. 核心展望与资产配置主线：2026年风险资产将迎来强劲表现，核心驱动力包括微观基本面改善、AI 资本开支加速及有利政策环境，全球市场走势将受美国主导的正 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment tools, particularly funds, as a convenient way to invest in various assets and strategies [6][15]. - It categorizes funds into two main types: index funds, which passively track indices, and active funds, which rely on the fund manager's judgment and investment style [9][11]. - The article highlights that different assets perform better in different macroeconomic environments, such as stocks during economic recovery and bonds during economic recession [19][24][30]. Group 2 - Establishing an investment mindset is crucial, as it serves as the foundation for successful investing [17][39]. - The article discusses the uncertainty in predicting future macroeconomic conditions and suggests that a diversified asset allocation strategy can mitigate risks [31][37]. - It concludes that understanding when to buy and sell is essential for navigating the market effectively, with a multi-asset allocation approach being more resilient to market fluctuations [41][56].

Core Insights - The article highlights the insights shared by Qian Cheng, chairman of Shanghai Kuan Investment Asset Management Co., during an investment forum, focusing on his experience in quantitative trading and market analysis [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Qian Cheng emphasizes the importance of an all-weather strategy, originally developed by Bridgewater Associates, which involves diversifying investments across low-correlation assets such as stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities to achieve stable long-term returns [1] - The strategy is increasingly adopted by major asset management institutions both domestically and internationally [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Qian notes the inverse volatility relationship between the CSI 300 Index and treasury futures, suggesting that incorporating commodities and gold can enhance the risk-adjusted performance of investment portfolios [1] - He believes that the commodity market is poised for cyclical opportunities in the near future [1] Group 3: Trading Philosophy - The trading philosophy advocated by Qian includes focusing on key sectors during bull markets and decisively taking profits at market peaks to avoid over-reliance on quantitative logic [1] - Asset management firms should prioritize absolute returns and invest in research and strategy optimization to create long-term value for clients [1] - Qian stresses the necessity of maintaining risk control and trend judgment to sustain a competitive edge in the industry amid market fluctuations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In October, China's economic growth continued to slow down and was lower than expected. The overall domestic demand economic data in October continued to slow down, with the decline in investment continuing to widen and falling short of market expectations, the consumption growth rate continuing to decline but slightly higher than market expectations, and industrial production significantly slowing down in the short term. The short - term investment side continued to slow down. The real estate market continued to slow down and bottom out, infrastructure investment continued to slow down, and manufacturing investment also faced challenges. The short - term domestic commodity supply - demand side showed weak demand and relatively abundant supply. The released data was significantly lower than market expectations, which was short - term negative for the domestic demand - type commodity market. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" work entering the substantial promotion stage was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, the prices of external demand - type commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy oscillated, and the support for precious metals increased due to the resurgence of safe - haven demand [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Production - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises was 4.9%, with an expected 5.5% and a previous value of 6.5%, a significant decline from the previous value and far lower than market expectations. This was mainly due to holiday factors and the slowdown in external demand orders, which led to a slowdown in the increase of industrial enterprise operating rates. Among the three major categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 4.5% year - on - year, the manufacturing industry by 4.9%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 5.4%. High - end manufacturing such as the automobile manufacturing, railway, ship, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing, and computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries still had relatively fast growth rates. In the fourth quarter, with the gradual weakening of the US replenishment demand, the overall growth rate of domestic industrial production might decline but was expected to remain at a relatively high level [3][4]. 3.2 Consumption - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.9%, with an expected 2.7% and a previous value of 3.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from the previous value but slightly higher than market expectations. The slowdown was due to the withdrawal of the consumer goods trade - in policy, the high base of categories such as automobiles, and weak holiday consumption. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods further slowed down under the influence of the trade - in policy withdrawal. The retail sales of consumer goods such as household appliances, furniture, automobiles, and communication equipment showed significant slowdowns, while service - related consumption growth accelerated with policy support. In the short term, the growth rate of commodity consumption was expected to continue to decline, but in the later stage, with the implementation of service consumption stimulus policies and the recovery of residents' wealth effect, domestic consumption would continue to recover [4]. 3.3 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7%, with an expected - 0.8% and a previous value of - 0.5%, and the decline widened by 1.2% and was far lower than expected. The decline rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all further widened [3][4]. - **Real Estate**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 23.2%, with a 1.9 - percentage - point increase in the decline from the previous month. The year - on - year growth rates of the floor area of commercial housing sold and sales volume were - 19.6% and - 25.1% respectively, with significant increases in the decline rates from the previous values. This was mainly due to the high - base effect of the "9.24 real estate new policy" last year and the mild real estate stimulus policies this year. The real estate market continued to adjust and bottom out, with the transaction activity in the housing market decreasing, and the investment side remaining weak. The year - on - year growth rate of real estate development funds in October was - 21.4%, with a 10.4 - percentage - point increase in the decline. The floor area of newly started construction, construction, and completion of real estate all faced challenges [4]. - **Infrastructure**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 8.9%, with a 4.3 - percentage - point increase in the decline from the previous value. Considering the continuous decline after the end of the photovoltaic rush - to - install market and the constraints of local debt resolution on project reserves and funds for traditional infrastructure, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline [4][5]. - **Manufacturing**: The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment in October was - 6.7%, with a 4.8 - percentage - point increase in the decline from the previous value. It continued to slow down due to the high - base effect last year and the decline in investment willingness caused by "anti - involution". High - tech industries maintained a high level of prosperity, but factors such as tariff uncertainty, the marginal decline in policy funds for large - scale equipment renewal and transformation, and the slowdown in US replenishment demand in the fourth quarter affected manufacturing investment. However, with the support of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments and the implementation of relevant policies, there might be some support for manufacturing investment in the future [4][5]. 3.4 Impact on Commodities - On the demand side, the short - term investment side continued to slow down, and domestic commodity demand as a whole slowed down and was lower than market expectations. On the supply side, industrial production slowed down due to factors such as the decline in foreign demand orders and the slowdown in the increase of industrial enterprise operating rates. The short - term domestic commodity supply - demand side showed weak demand and relatively abundant supply. The "anti - involution" policy had a certain supporting effect on the prices of domestic demand - type commodities. The released data was significantly lower than market expectations, which was short - term negative for the domestic demand - type commodity market. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" work entering the substantial promotion stage was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, due to the overall easing of US trade policies, the impact on the economy weakened, but the short - term government shutdown affected the economy. The prices of external demand - type commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy oscillated and showed significant differentiation, and the support for precious metals increased due to the resurgence of safe - haven demand [3][5].

Legal Analysis - The U.S. Supreme Court's debate on the legality of "reciprocal tariffs" shows a 3:6 split, with 6 justices leaning towards declaring them illegal[2] - The likelihood of a ruling against reciprocal tariffs is increasing, but a delayed effect is probable, allowing the government time to adjust[2][10] - Possible outcomes include a ruling of illegality with a delay (45%-55% probability), partial illegality focusing on specific tariffs like fentanyl (20%-30% probability), or a ruling upholding their legality (10%-20% probability)[16][17] Economic Implications - If reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, U.S. tariff revenue could decline by 25%, potentially dropping from $3,412 billion to $2,554 billion[4][23] - Current tariff structure: reciprocal tariffs account for 45% of U.S. tariff revenue, with 301 tariffs at 18% and 232 tariffs at 17%[4][23] - The effective tariff rate for the U.S. is currently 9.75%, with the highest rate on Chinese imports at 40.4%[4][29] Political Response - Trump may pivot to existing tariff laws (Sections 232, 301, and 338) if reciprocal tariffs are invalidated, with a low probability of widespread tax refunds[3][20] - The likelihood of targeted tax refunds is higher, but broad automatic refunds are unlikely due to legal constraints[3][22] Market Reactions - Following the Supreme Court's deliberations, market expectations for tariff legality have shifted, impacting capital markets and trade policies[5][10] - The recent government shutdown affected 670,000 federal employees, with 1.52 million remaining on payroll, highlighting the political stakes involved[5]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has diminished, leading to pressure on global risk assets through two main channels [1] Group 1: Impact on Currency and Commodities - A decline in interest rate cut expectations supports the US dollar index in the short term, which, as a core global pricing currency, makes dollar-denominated commodities and emerging market assets less attractive, potentially causing capital to flow back to dollar assets [1] - The continued restrictive monetary policy will elevate real interest rates, negatively impacting the valuation logic of risk assets, particularly high-valuation growth assets, as rising discount rates compress their valuation space [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Recent market performance indicates a pullback in the US Nasdaq index, emerging market equities, and cyclical commodities like oil, reflecting the pressure on risk assets [1]