Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market logic has shifted from economic growth pressure to anti-involution and demand-side stimulus policies, leading to strong performance in the commodity market, which exerts emotional pressure on the bond market [1][2] - There is a divergence in how various asset classes interpret the macro environment and policies, with the bond market showing limited adjustments and weak expectations, while the equity market is rising with policy hopes, and the commodity market exhibits strong bullish sentiment [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - Economic data confirms a stable fundamental outlook, but there may be marginal weakening in the third quarter, increasing expectations for anti-involution policies [1][4][6] - Credit issuance in June increased year-on-year, but this was influenced by a low base from the previous year. A decline in credit issuance in late July suggests potential marginal weakening in the economy for Q3 [1][6] - The current ten-year government bond yield is approximately 1.67%, and the thirty-year yield is close to 1.9%. Rapid increases in yields could lead to overshooting, presenting opportunities for allocation [1][10] - The launch of the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF has led to a rapid increase in its scale, significantly impacting the credit bond market, particularly benefiting high-rated long-term bonds [3][11][14] Market Sentiment and Expectations - Investors in different asset classes have varying views on future anti-involution and demand-side stimulus policies. Bond investors are skeptical, while equity investors are optimistic, and commodity investors are the most bullish [7][19] - The bond market faces potential adjustment pressure if the commodity market's expectations are correct. However, the current liquidity environment is stable, making significant adjustments in the bond market unlikely [9][12] Financial Data and Trends - The overall economic fundamentals remain stable, with supportive policies contributing to a good state in the first half of 2025. However, financial data shows that some metrics are significantly influenced by last year's low base [6][8] - Recent credit bond market performance has been active, particularly in corporate bonds and secondary capital bonds, with notable yield changes [13][18] Additional Insights - The current enthusiasm for the Sci-Tech ETF has led to signs of overheating, with high turnover rates and significant valuation differences among components [16][17] - The divergence in understanding macro policies among different asset classes is expected to persist in the short term, but long-term sustainability of this divergence is questionable [5][7] - If the ETF scale increases beyond expectations, it could ignite overall market sentiment; however, if it falls short, there may be a convergence of component bonds towards non-component bonds [20]

Core Viewpoint - The second half of the year is expected to see a phase synchronization of domestic and foreign policy rhythms, with a focus on structural opportunities in domestic assets [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Despite differing economic cycles between China and the U.S., uncertainties from tariff impacts are leading to synchronized policy rhythms in the second half of the year [1] - In the first half of Q3, both domestic and foreign economies are expected to show resilience, with policies focusing on cautious management of expectations [1] - By the latter part of Q3, export pressures in China and increasing pressures in the U.S. are anticipated, with more incremental policies likely to be introduced in Q4 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. is expected to maintain some resilience in Q3, supporting risk appetite, but uncertainties from tariffs and debt risks may increase market volatility [1] - In Q4, as pressures in the U.S. mount, the likelihood of Fed rate cuts may support risk asset valuations through liquidity [1] - The U.S. fiscal year budget deadline and the expiration of "reciprocal tariffs" in September may lead to significant market fluctuations [1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic conditions are expected to remain weak but stable, with infrastructure spending providing upward support in the second half of the year [1] - Export growth is projected to slow down in August, with a neutral year-on-year growth expectation of around 1.5% [1] - Infrastructure funding is expected to increase in the latter half of the year, while real estate policies continue to strengthen [1] Group 4: Asset Allocation - Domestic assets are expected to focus on structural opportunities, with a policy-driven logic becoming more pronounced [1] - Equity markets are anticipated to continue with dividend and growth styles, focusing on undervalued sectors, while commodities will focus on black building materials and agricultural products [1] - Bonds are recommended for low-cost allocation, benefiting from expectations of loose monetary policy in Q4 [1] Group 5: International Market Considerations - International assets should be aligned with the weak dollar theme, while being cautious of volatility spikes [1] - U.S. stocks are expected to experience fluctuations in the first half of Q3, with potential relief from valuation pressures in Q4 due to rate cuts [1] - Non-dollar assets are likely to benefit in a weak dollar environment, while gold and other resource commodities are recommended for long-term strategic allocation [1]