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在动荡时期驾驭跨资产波动
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 06:29
来源:市场资讯 (来源:Refinitiv路孚特) Alexandre Hardouin LSEG 股票交易主管,Shared Workflow Trading联席主管 我们探讨了近期政治经济动荡,如:关税上调及央行政策转向如何引发股票、债券和大宗商品市场的剧 烈波动。 这些剧烈波动不仅是本能反应,还反映出全球贸易政策、通胀和央行政策走向的深层不确定性。投资者 对通胀风险重新定价及美联储政策路径的再评估,美国国债收益率剧烈震荡。与此同时,溢出效应持续 扰动欧洲股市并冲击大宗商品价格,对各类货币与资产产生连锁效应。 关键之处在于,当前市场波动不仅受经济基本面驱动,还受政治议程推动。 对于敏捷型投资者而言, 这既意味着需应对的风险,更蕴含着可把握的机遇——尤其在那些价格波动更多由市场情绪驱动、而非 盈利表现或宏观趋势支撑的行业、地区及资产类别中。 在如今的全球市场环境中,仅靠信息灵通已远远不足。 投资者必须精准把握关键要素、行动时机及高 效果断采取行动,才能在市场错位中捕捉机遇。 跨资产意识已是必备能力 孤立分析股票已不符合今市场现实。股票波动受到跨资产类别的多重驱动:大宗商品价格异动、汇率波 动、利率预期调整及 ...
在动荡时期驾驭跨资产波动
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-08-18 06:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent political and economic turmoil, such as tariff increases and central bank policy shifts, on the volatility of stock, bond, and commodity markets [1][2]. Market Volatility - Following the announcement of a series of tariff policies by the Trump administration, global markets experienced significant turbulence, with nearly $6.6 trillion in market value evaporating from the U.S. stock market within two trading days. The S&P 500 index rebounded by 9.5% the following day, marking the largest single-day gain in over a decade [2]. - The volatility reflects deeper uncertainties regarding global trade policies, inflation, and central bank directions, leading to a reassessment of inflation risks and U.S. Federal Reserve policy paths, resulting in dramatic fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Cross-Asset Awareness - Isolated analysis of stocks is no longer sufficient; stock volatility is influenced by multiple asset classes, including commodity price fluctuations, currency volatility, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risks [3][4]. - The divergence between U.S. and European stock markets exemplifies this, where the S&P 500 is buoyed by strong technology sector performance, while European indices are pressured by tariff concerns and energy price shocks [3]. Data Tools and Decision-Making - Investors must leverage advanced data tools like LSEG Workspace and StarMine to filter market noise and extract actionable insights, enabling them to make informed decisions in volatile markets [4][5]. - The ability to focus on critical information and utilize refined data-driven signals is increasingly valuable, as it helps identify potential opportunities during market dislocations [5]. Strategic Adjustments - Recognizing market dynamics is crucial, but the ability to act under pressure is equally important. Tariff policy adjustments can have complex ripple effects across industries and asset classes [6]. - Integrated decision-making environments, such as LSEG Workspace, allow investors to analyze and adjust strategies without switching systems, enhancing agility in responding to market changes [6]. Maintaining a Competitive Edge - Market volatility is expected to persist, and investors must build processes, utilize appropriate tools, and apply precise insights to turn market complexities into competitive advantages [7]. - The ultimate winners in this rapidly changing market will be those who can accurately determine where to allocate funds and seize the best timing for action [7].