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 洲际船务(02409):受益港口费反制,中资船管公司竞争力提升
 Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-17 07:16
 Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]   Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of special port fees for U.S. vessels, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese ship management companies [7] - The shipping service business demonstrated resilience despite a decline in market rates, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 23% to $80 million in the first half of 2025 [7] - The ship management business saw a significant profit increase, with revenue rising 73% year-on-year to $57 million and a pre-tax profit increase of 104% to $8.1 million [7] - The fleet size is expanding, with an average ship age reduction from 6 years in 2024 to 5 years, improving market competitiveness [7] - The dry bulk shipping market is showing signs of recovery, with the BDI index increasing by 5% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [7] - The company's performance aligns with expectations, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicating net profits of $47 million, $60 million, and $74 million respectively [7]   Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows:    - 2023A: $259 million   - 2024A: $282 million   - 2025E: $346 million   - 2026E: $371 million   - 2027E: $412 million [6][8] - Net profit forecasts are as follows:   - 2023A: $21 million   - 2024A: $70 million   - 2025E: $47 million   - 2026E: $60 million   - 2027E: $74 million [6][8] - The company’s PE ratios are projected to be 6, 5, and 4 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating significant upside potential compared to peers [7]