Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the express delivery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing price increases due to rising oil prices and a trend against excessive competition, with multiple regions implementing price hikes [1][10]. - The industry is entering a new phase of high-quality development, focusing on improving service quality and maintaining stable pricing, which is expected to benefit leading companies [3][84]. - The volume growth in the express delivery sector is gradually recovering, with a notable increase in the growth rate of delivery volumes in early 2026 compared to the previous year [2][12]. Summary by Sections Price Adjustments - Multiple express delivery companies have raised prices in response to increased transportation costs due to rising oil prices, with adjustments starting from March 23, 2026, in various provinces [1][10]. - The price adjustments reflect a broader trend of stabilizing prices in the industry, with significant increases in single-package revenue reported by major companies [2][11]. Volume Growth - The growth rate of express delivery volumes has shown signs of recovery, with January and February 2026 reporting a 7.1% increase compared to previous months [2][12]. - Major companies like YTO and ZTO have outperformed the market in terms of volume growth, indicating a strengthening competitive position [15][16]. Market Positioning - Leading companies in the express delivery sector are expected to gain market share as they benefit from improved volume structures and pricing strategies [3][13]. - ZTO is highlighted as a key player with a commitment to enhancing investor returns, while YTO continues to show strong performance metrics [18][19][86]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued investment in leading express delivery companies such as ZTO, YTO, and Shentong, emphasizing their potential for growth in the evolving market landscape [3][20][21]. - The report also highlights the importance of maintaining a focus on performance elasticity and dividend value in the transportation sector, particularly in shipping and express delivery [7][82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the express delivery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing price increases due to rising oil prices and a trend against excessive competition, with multiple regions implementing price hikes [1][10]. - The industry is entering a new phase of high-quality development, focusing on improving service quality and maintaining stable pricing, which is expected to benefit leading companies [3][17]. - The volume growth in the express delivery sector is gradually recovering, with a notable increase in the growth rate of delivery volumes in early 2026 [2][12]. Summary by Sections Price Adjustments and Market Dynamics - Multiple express delivery companies have raised prices in response to increased transportation costs from rising oil prices, with adjustments starting from March 23, 2026, in various provinces [1][10]. - The price adjustments reflect a broader trend of stabilizing prices in the industry, with significant increases in single-package revenue reported for major companies [2][11]. Volume Growth and Market Share - The growth rate of delivery volumes has shown signs of recovery, with January and February 2026 reporting a 7.1% increase, which is better than previous expectations [2][12]. - Leading companies like YTO and ZTO have outperformed the market in terms of volume growth, with YTO's growth rates significantly exceeding the industry average [15][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued investment in leading express delivery companies such as ZTO, YTO, and Shentong, highlighting ZTO's commitment to increasing investor returns and YTO's strong performance metrics [3][18][19]. - The report also emphasizes the potential for growth in the Southeast Asian market through Jitu Express, which is positioned as a key player in the region [20]. - Opportunities in SF Express are noted, particularly in relation to its strategic adjustments and collaborations with Jitu Express [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical situation remains stalemated, with signs of relaxation in strait passage; the market may still be in a wide - range volatile state. Spot prices in April are under pressure, and offline freight rates may drop to $2000/FEU. The central price of European routes may still have the risk of weakening and moving downward. Geopolitical factors over the weekend are the main influencing factors, and the claim by the Houthis to control the Bab el - Mandeb Strait and the establishment of the passage mechanism in the Strait of Hormuz may bring risk impacts. Currently, the trading volume and open interest of European routes are relatively low, and the liquidity activity is not high. Investors are advised to manage their positions and risks well. The market outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of the geopolitical situation and changes in the spot market [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Freight and Contract Volume - Price - **Futures Contract Data**: EC2604 closed at 1771.4, down 0.9628% with a trading volume of 12470 and an open interest of 10730; EC2605 closed at 2043.6, down 1.2324% with a trading volume of 1403 and an open interest of 1847; EC2606 closed at 2417.3, up 4.6709% with a trading volume of 11695 and an open interest of 13831; EC2607 closed at 2535.2, up 3.8421% with a trading volume of 350 and an open interest of 988; EC2608 closed at 2412.4, up 5.1254% with a trading volume of 900 and an open interest of 2797; EC2609 closed at 1696.9, up 1.8486% with a trading volume of 36 and an open interest of 496; EC2610 closed at 1750, up 4.0854% with a trading volume of 1935 and an open interest of 7193; EC2612 closed at 1750, up 2.6328% with a trading volume of 34 and an open interest of 501 [7] - **Spot Freight Data**: The comprehensive index of SCFI is 1707 points. The freight rate of the Nordic route is $1636/TEU, and SCFIS is 1693.26 (+8.8%); the freight rate of the Mediterranean route is $2784/TEU; the freight rate of the US West route is $2054/FEU, and SCFIS is 1024.11 (-7.7%); the freight rate of the US East route is $2922/FEU [8] Geopolitical and Passage Information - **Geopolitical Situation**: The Houthis claim to be ready to control the Bab el - Mandeb Strait. The US - Iran negotiation continues, and the US military action against Iranian power and energy facilities is postponed for 5 days. Iran rejects the US cease - fire plan and proposes 5 conditions for a cease - fire [2] - **Passage Situation**: Iran is seeking a bill to maintain its sovereignty, dominance, and regulatory power over the Strait of Hormuz and generate revenue through toll collection. The Strait of Hormuz, an international energy artery, has begun to resume a small number of ship passages after almost 25 days of near - suspension. On March 25, there were 4 passages in the Strait of Hormuz. The VLCC freight rate from West Africa to China is updated to $8.5/barrel, a 1.8% decrease from the previous period; the VLCC freight rate from the Middle East to China is updated to $11.13/barrel, a 2.4% decrease from the previous period. For Middle East routes, if outside the Strait of Hormuz, land transportation is used to enter the strait; if entering Jeddah Port in Saudi Arabia, ships directly pass through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [3][4] Spot Quotations - **European Route Spot Freight**: GEMINI: MSK's online freight rate for European routes in early April rose to $2350/FEU, a $10 increase from the previous day. HPL SPOT's freight rate in early April is $2635 - $3035/FEU. OCEAN: OOCL's online freight rate at the end of March is $2737/FEU, and the quote in early April is $2847 - $2880/FEU. EMC's special - price voyage CES on April 1 is $2650/FEU, and the freight rate for other voyages in April is $3060/FEU, a $300 decrease from the previous week. MSC&PA: MSC's online freight rate in early April is $2852/FEU; ONE's online freight rate dropped to $2555/FEU at the end of March and reached $3061/FEU in April [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - China COSCO Shipping International (00517.HK) reported a profit attributable to equity holders of HKD 771 million for the fiscal year 2025, representing a 9% year-on-year increase, driven by higher income and profits from joint ventures, as well as increased foreign exchange gains [1] Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for the year was HKD 3.706 billion, up 2% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from the core shipping services segment was HKD 3.697 billion, a 6% increase year-on-year, accounting for 99.8% of total revenue, primarily due to increased income from the paint and ship trading agency segments [1] - The general trading segment reported revenue of HKD 9.134 million, a significant decline of 93% year-on-year, representing only 0.2% of total revenue [1] - Gross profit rose by 6% to HKD 895 million, mainly due to increased gross profit from the paint segment and the ship trading agency segment [1] - Gross profit margin increased to 24%, attributed to a higher contribution from segments with better profit margins [1] Dividend Proposal - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.19 per share and an additional special dividend of HKD 0.10 per share [1] Cash Position - As of December 31, 2025, the company reported a net cash position of HKD 5.817 billion, which includes non-current bank deposits, restricted bank deposits, current deposits, and cash and cash equivalents [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery industry remains resilient, with a top-down "anti-involution" policy driving up express prices, thereby releasing profit elasticity for companies. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express delivery is favorable due to healthy competition opportunities [16] - The oil transportation sector is expected to benefit from sustained crude oil production and tight capacity, with the "Changjin factor" reshaping pricing logic. Geopolitical changes may continue to catalyze sentiment or fundamentals, leading to a significant improvement in the oil transportation market in 2026 [16] - The bulk shipping market is anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations limiting the operation of aging fleets and increased production of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and West Africa. The market is expected to enter a "new cycle" [16] - The shipping industry is experiencing a green renewal cycle, with demand driven by shipping market recovery and progress in green updates. The new shipbuilding market is expected to improve as constraints ease [16] Summary by Sections Shipping and Ports - Iran may establish a "safe passage" in the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple countries negotiating with Tehran for ship passage. However, security experts warn of potential delays or seizures by Iranian forces [4] - MSC Group has acquired a 50% stake in Changjin Shipping, supporting aggressive expansion of its VLCC fleet, which is estimated to control 150 VLCCs, significantly impacting market concentration and pricing [5] - The SCFI composite freight index decreased by 0.2% to 1707 points, with varying changes in freight rates across different routes [6] - The BDTI index for VLCC freight rates increased by 0.26% to 2821 points, while TCE rates for VLCCs decreased by 5.9% [7] - The BDI index for bulk carriers increased by 3.2% to 2046 points, indicating a rise in bulk shipping rates [8] - China's port cargo throughput increased by 9.52% to 25.617 million tons, with container throughput rising by 9.27% to 6.6 million TEU [10] Express Logistics - In January-February 2026, the express delivery industry volume grew by 7.1% year-on-year, with significant differentiation in market share among major players [9] - Zhongtong Express reported a stable net profit per ticket and committed to a shareholder return rate of no less than 50% [10] - Shentong plans to issue 3 billion yuan in convertible bonds for logistics network upgrades, with a commitment to distribute at least 30% of profits in cash over the next three years [11] - Price adjustments have been made in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces, reflecting rising operational costs [12] Aviation and Airports - China and Thailand have suspended aviation fuel exports, potentially leading to fuel shortages for airlines [14] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced measures to promote travel service exports and expand inbound consumption [14] Road and Rail - From March 9 to March 15, 2026, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 6.7% and highway truck traffic rising by 14.75% [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, CAOCAO Mobility, and Jitu Express [8]. Core Insights - The oil shipping sector is expected to experience significant price elasticity due to the current inventory reduction and potential future replenishment, particularly in the context of the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz [2][3]. - The air travel sector is projected to benefit from high passenger load factors, which may lead to increased ticket prices, supported by a recovering demand and favorable policies [12]. - The logistics sector shows signs of improvement, with major players like ZTO Express reporting significant profit growth and a focus on enhancing service quality amid a competitive landscape [15][18]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index fell by 2.65% during the week of March 16-20, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.73 percentage points [19]. - The shipping sector was the only sub-sector to gain, with a 1.21% increase, while public transport, air transport, and logistics saw declines of -6.87%, -6.78%, and -5.76% respectively [19]. Air Travel - The domestic flight ticket booking volume for the Qingming Festival exceeded 1.12 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 23%, indicating a recovery in air travel demand [11]. - The average ticket price for domestic flights has risen by 6.6% compared to the same period last year, reflecting a positive trend in pricing power for airlines [11][12]. Shipping and Ports - The daily shipping rate for a 270,000-ton vessel from Ras Tanura to Ningbo was reported at $346,998, while the rate for a 260,000-ton vessel from Malongo to Ningbo was $127,870 [2][13]. - The report highlights the potential for increased shipping rates due to geopolitical risks and rising fuel prices, with major shipping companies beginning to impose fuel surcharges [2][14]. Logistics - ZTO Express reported a net profit of 2.695 billion yuan for Q4 2025, reflecting a 26.5% quarter-on-quarter increase after adjusting for tax refunds [15]. - The express delivery industry saw a volume increase of 7.1% year-on-year in January-February 2026, with market share continuing to concentrate among leading companies [17][18]. Key Companies to Watch - The report emphasizes the importance of companies such as ZTO Express, SF Holding, and CAOCAO Mobility, which are expected to benefit from ongoing trends in the logistics and transportation sectors [8][18].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the transportation sector Core Views - The transportation index decreased by 2.2% during the week of March 14-20, 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.2% [1] - The logistics sector is expected to improve due to rising chemical prices, with a focus on companies like Milkyway, Hongchuan Wisdom, and others [3] - The air travel sector is seeing a recovery with a 3.34% increase in planned international passenger flights for the summer season of 2026 [4] - The shipping sector is facing geopolitical pressures, but the oil transportation index remains high due to geopolitical factors [5] - The road and rail sectors are showing resilience, with increased truck traffic and a focus on coal transportation [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 2.2%, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 2.4%, ranking 5th out of 29 sectors [1][13] Industry Fundamental Status Tracking Shipping and Ports - The export container shipping market is under pressure from geopolitical tensions, with the CCFI index at 1120.61 points, up 4.5% week-on-week but down 6.0% year-on-year [5][22] - The oil transportation index BDTI increased to 2849.2 points, reflecting a 1.3% week-on-week rise and a 194.6% year-on-year increase [39] Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights increased by 4.79% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 17.85% [4] - The Brent crude oil price rose to $112.19 per barrel, impacting operational costs for airlines [74] Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume increased by 10.53% year-on-year, while freight volume saw a slight decline of 0.59% [86] - The number of trucks on highways increased by 14.75% week-on-week, indicating a robust road transport sector [90] Express and Logistics - The express delivery sector saw a revenue increase of 7.9% year-on-year, with major companies like Zhongtong Express expected to recover in market share and profitability [2]

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Shipping (02343) has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 20% cumulatively post-earnings report, with a current trading price of 2.83 HKD and a trading volume of 226 million HKD [3]. Company Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2.081 billion USD for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 19% [3]. - Shareholder profit attributable to the company was 58.2 million USD, down 56% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [3]. - The decline in performance is attributed to lower Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) rates than anticipated, influenced by industry freight rates [3]. Industry Context - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to a sustained low volume of vessel traffic near the Strait of Hormuz, potentially increasing operational costs for shipping companies due to high oil prices [3]. - The stalemate in the Middle East has resulted in a significant drop in trade volumes for commodities such as grain, steel, and fertilizers, with some vessels being redirected to the Indian Ocean, impacting rental rates on these routes [3]. - There is a noted divergence in performance between different sizes of vessels within the shipping industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Shipping (02343) has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 20% cumulatively post-earnings report, with a current trading price of HKD 2.83 and a trading volume of HKD 226 million [1] Company Performance - Pacific Shipping reported a revenue of USD 208.1 million for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 19% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 5.82 million, down 56% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to lower Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) rates than anticipated, although the company's rates were still better than the industry average [1] Industry Context - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to a sustained low volume of vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, potentially increasing operational costs for shipping companies due to high oil prices [1] - The stalemate in the Middle East has resulted in a significant drop in trade volumes for commodities such as grain, steel, and fertilizers, with some vessels being redirected to the Indian Ocean, impacting rental rates on those routes [1] - The market is witnessing a divergence in performance between different sizes of vessels due to these geopolitical and economic factors [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the logistics and transportation sectors, including SF Holding, Jitu Express, and ZTO Express [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a trend of price increases in the express delivery sector, driven by regulatory measures aimed at reducing unhealthy competition and improving profit margins for delivery personnel [4][15]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing "anti-involution" measures, with a focus on stabilizing operations and income for delivery staff [4][16]. - The airline industry is projected to see a recovery in passenger demand, with expectations of rising ticket prices due to high load factors and a recovering economy [12][3]. Summary by Sections Transportation Sector Overview - The transportation sector index fell by 1.21% in the week of March 9-13, 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.51 percentage points [17]. - The best-performing sub-sectors included express delivery (up 3.16%), railway transport (up 1.67%), and highways (up 1.09%) [17]. Shipping and Ports - The report notes disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affecting oil shipping rates, with a potential positive scenario for oil transport if current inventory reductions are followed by replenishment [2][13]. - The report indicates that shipping companies are implementing emergency fuel surcharges in response to rising fuel prices [2][14]. Logistics - The express delivery sector is experiencing a shift towards price increases, with Guangdong extending its "lock period" to prevent price wars, and companies like Tongda Rabbit raising prices in specific regions [4][15]. - The report identifies two main investment themes: international expansion driven by the growth of overseas e-commerce and the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts within the domestic market [4][16]. Airline Industry - The airline sector is witnessing a significant increase in passenger volume during the Spring Festival, with a record of nearly 95 million travelers, reflecting a 4.7% year-on-year increase [11][12]. - The report suggests that the airline industry will benefit from a combination of low supply growth and recovering demand, leading to improved profitability for airlines [12]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include Jitu Express, ZTO Express, and SF Holding in the logistics sector, and major airlines such as China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines in the aviation sector [4][12][16].