证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年08月25日 华源晨会精粹 20250825 固定收益 利差调整后，或存补涨机会——信用分析周报：本周不同行业不同评级的 信用利差大多有不超过 5BP 的调整，少数行业信用利差有所压缩。城投债方面，本 周不同期限城投债信用利差均有所调整。产业债方面，本周不同期限和评级的产业 债大多有所调整，3Y 私募产业债信用利差表现较好，利差有所压缩。银行资本债方 面，本周 3Y 银行二永债信用利差有明显压缩，其余期限利差大多小幅走扩。我们持 续看下半年 10Y 国债收益率 1.6%-1.8%，当前 10Y 国债接近 1.8%，性价比突出。 2025 年债市没有趋势性行情，低利率时代的债券震荡市里投资非常艰难，需要左侧 把握波段机会。待到股市调整之时，债券收益率可能快速下行，右侧投资难度亦不 低。当前，我们明确看多债市，未来半年预计 10Y 国债收益率重回 1.65%左右，5Y 国股二级资本债到 1.9%以下，理财规模增长对中短信用债构成利好。 风险提示：数据口径偏差风险、信用风险事件扰 ...

板块市场回顾 本周（8/16-8/22）交运指数上涨 1.7%，沪深 300 指数上涨 4.2%，跑输大盘 2.5%，排名 21/29。交运子板块中快递板 块涨幅最大(+4.4%)，铁路板块跌幅最大(-0.1%)。 行业观点 快递：7 月顺丰快递业务量增速达 34%，在各快递公司中领跑。上周（8 月 11 日-8 月 17 日）邮政快递累计揽收量约 35.23 亿件，环比-0.06%，同比+11.81%；累计投递量约 35.11 亿件，环比-0.09%，同比+15.11%。2025 年 7 月，顺丰、 韵达、圆通、申通快递业务量同比分别+33.7%、+7.6%、+20.8%、+11.9%，市场份额分别为 8.4%、13.2%、15.8%、13.3%, 环比分别-0.3pct、+0.3pct、+0.2pct、+0.4pct。"反内卷"背景下，多个产粮区已提价，叠加行业旺季将来临，预 计快递单票价格有望提升。考虑估值性价比、经营韧性、股东回报提升等，推荐顺丰控股。 物流：危化品水运价格企稳回升，发力智慧物流推荐海晨股份。本周中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)为 4024 点，同比 -10.3%，环比持平。上周液体化 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 据证券之星公开数据整理，近期海航科技(600751)发布2025年中报。根据财报显示，海航科技增收不增 利。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收入6.75亿元，同比上升30.1%，归母净利润7149.57万元，同比下降 23.89%。按单季度数据看，第二季度营业总收入4.14亿元，同比上升84.62%，第二季度归母净利润 2851.8万元，同比下降25.65%。 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现一般。其中，毛利率4.67%，同比减40.29%，净利率10.58%，同比减 41.55%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计795.92万元，三费占营收比1.18%，同比增804.05%，每股 净资产2.61元，同比增1.49%，每股经营性现金流-0.03元，同比减168.47%，每股收益0.02元，同比减 23.77% | 项目 | 2024年中报 | 2025年中报 | 同比增幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(元) | 5.19亿 | 6.75亿 | 30.10% | | 归母净利润(元) | 9394.09万 | 7149.57万 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The express delivery industry in China saw a business volume of 16.4 billion pieces in July 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, with revenue reaching 120.64 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [4][25]. - The "anti-involution" trend in the express delivery sector is gaining traction, with associations in Beijing and Baoji advocating for fair competition and the cessation of irrational price wars [5]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a shift towards the central and western regions of China, with the proportion of express delivery business volume in these areas increasing [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Milky Way reported a 17.4% increase in revenue to 7.035 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit of 352 million yuan, up 13.12% year-on-year [6]. - Debon Express achieved a revenue of 20.555 billion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 11.43%, but faced a significant drop in net profit by 84.34% [7][8]. - The new management at Debon Express is expected to focus on improving service quality and operational efficiency, which may enhance revenue quality [8]. Group 3: Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential growth [15]. - The release of the "Self-Regulation Convention for Air Passenger Transport" aims to promote high-quality development and fair competition in the aviation market [9]. - The restoration of direct flights between China and India is anticipated, which could enhance passenger transport volumes [9]. Group 4: Shipping and Port Operations - The oil tanker market may be influenced by the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, which could lead to a reduction in old tanker capacity [10]. - Brazil's iron ore exports have significantly increased, supporting the bulk shipping market, with July shipments reaching nearly 38 million tons [11]. - China's port cargo throughput increased by 10.87% week-on-week to 26.894 million tons, while container throughput rose by 19.58% to 679,000 TEU [78]. Group 5: Road and Rail Transport - Zhongyuan Expressway reported a 5.77% increase in toll revenue in July 2025, with total revenue reaching 411 million yuan [14]. - National logistics operations remained stable, with rail freight increasing by 1.29% and highway freight traffic up by 1.34% during early August [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market's expectation of price support at $2000/FEU has failed. With demand entering the off - season, supply vessel schedules being full, and the impact of overtime ships, the freight rate is accelerating to decline. The market may continue to be weak in the future, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the October contract [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Freight Rates - MSK's 35 - week opening rate rose to $2340/FEU, while HPL - Q0's quote dropped to $2435/FEU, a $400 decrease from the previous level [3] - OCEAN's 34 - week freight rate was between $2800 - $2900/FEU. EMC's online rate remained at $3010 - $3160/FEU, CMA's at $2920 - $3020/FEU, and FAL's 3 - route rate dropped to $2520/FEU and then rebounded [3] - MSC's rate dropped to $2840/FEU, while ONE and HMM maintained their rates at $2743 and $2700/FEU respectively [3] Market Performance - MSK's opening freight rate dropped from $2600/FEU to $2200/FEU. HPL's online rate for the 22nd ship was $1800/FEU, and CMA's online rate dropped from $2920 to $2520/FEU, causing the futures market to break below 1400 points and reach a minimum of 1326.7 points [2] - The trading volume of the October contract rose to 66,400 lots, with an increase of 4786 lots in open interest. It closed at 1333.1 points, down 5.57%. The December contract closed at 1700.1 points, down 1.19% [2] Fundamental Information - Wan Hai will upgrade the Red Sea route AR2. Starting from mid - September, the new FM1 Asia - Mediterranean route will use the Suez Canal, adding direct routes to important ports such as Alexandria in Egypt and Izmit and Istanbul in Turkey [3] Macroeconomic Data - In August, the ZEW economic sentiment index in the Eurozone was 25.1, down from the previous value of 36.1. OPEC's monthly report raised the Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 1% to 1.2% and for 2026 from 1.1% to 1.2% [3] Trading Logic and Outlook - The market's expectation of price support at $2000/FEU has failed. With demand in the off - season, supply vessel schedules being full, and the impact of overtime ships, the freight rate is accelerating to decline. The traditional price - decline period from August to September requires OCEAN and PA to follow the downward trend. The accelerated decline of SCFIS in the second half of August may narrow the futures discount [4] - The market outlook is weak and volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the October contract [4]

Group 1: Financial Performance - Abu Dhabi National Oil Logistics and Services Company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $1.258 billion, exceeding consensus expectations of $1.170 billion[2] - The EBITDA margin for Q2 2025 was 32%, surpassing the expected 29%[2] - Net income for Q2 2025 was $236 million, compared to the consensus estimate of $207 million[2] Group 2: Guidance and Projections - The company raised its FY 2025 revenue growth forecast from a mid-20% year-on-year increase to a high-20% range[2] - FY 2025 EBITDA growth guidance was adjusted from a high 10%-20% range to a mid-20% range year-on-year[2] - Net income growth for FY 2025 was revised from a low double-digit increase to a mid-low double-digit increase year-on-year[2] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Debt - Total capital expenditure reached $270 million, accounting for 46% of the FY 2025 guidance[3] - Free cash flow for Q2 2025 was $62 million, down from $202 million in Q1 2025[2] - Net debt to EBITDA ratio improved to 0.79 times, compared to 0.80 times in Q1 2025[2] Group 4: Risks - Key risks include declining shipping day rates, reduced energy product demand, crew supply shortages, and geopolitical risks[4]

Core Insights - The total scale of China's marine economy is projected to reach 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, with a marine GDP of 5.1 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, surpassing the national GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points [1] - The Central Financial Committee emphasizes the need for high-quality development of the marine economy, advocating for enhanced top-level design and policy support [1] - The development of bay economies is being explored across various coastal provinces, with over 150 bays larger than 10 square kilometers along China's 32,000-kilometer coastline [1] Marine City Clusters - Marine city clusters are defined as urban agglomerations centered around port groups, with marine economies at their core, facilitating collaboration among multiple cities [2] - Approximately 60% of global economic output is concentrated in port bays and adjacent areas, with 75% of major cities and 70% of industrial capital located within 100 kilometers of coastal areas [2] Bay Area Development - The Greater Bay Area's marine city cluster aims to create a unique multi-center collaborative development model, leveraging the strengths of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou [7] - The three cities form a "golden triangle," enhancing resource allocation efficiency and global competitiveness through improved connectivity and collaboration [7][19] Economic Goals - The Greater Bay Area aims for a container throughput of 100 million TEUs by 2030, surpassing the combined throughput of New York and Los Angeles ports [9] - Research and development investment is targeted to exceed 5% by 2025, outpacing Norway's 3.9% [9] - The goal for green shipping is to have 15% of ammonia-fueled vessels by 2035, exceeding the EU's target of 10% [9] Collaborative Development - The concept of "collaborative development" is not unique to the Greater Bay Area, with cities like Qingdao and Ningbo-Zhoushan also pursuing marine city cluster initiatives [11][10] - The integration of surrounding marine cities can enhance economic scale and create economies of scale and scope [11] Current Leaders in Marine Economy - Shanghai remains the leader in marine economy, with a marine GDP projected to reach 1.1387 trillion yuan in 2024, followed by Tianjin, Qingdao, and Shenzhen [15] - The collaborative model among Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and Guangzhou is seen as a necessity due to their individual limitations compared to cities like Shanghai and Singapore [15] Infrastructure and Innovation - The development of transportation infrastructure, such as the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge, is crucial for enhancing connectivity and collaboration among cities [23] - The establishment of marine universities and research institutions is essential for fostering innovation in marine-related fields [23][24] Institutional Innovation - Shenzhen is encouraged to create legal frameworks related to marine development while deepening integration with Hong Kong [24] - The Greater Bay Area is positioned as a testing ground for innovative marine governance models under the "one country, two systems" framework [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, suggesting a focus on the potential for price increases in the express delivery sector and the valuation recovery in the logistics sector [3]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is expected to see a price increase in South China, which may lead to a recovery in industry valuations due to reduced price competition driven by "anti-involution" policies [7][23]. - The shipping sector is currently experiencing weak overall market conditions, with a focus on OPEC+ production plans and the potential for price recovery in the second half of the year [16]. - Infrastructure assets in Hong Kong are seen as having room for valuation improvement, particularly in the context of a declining interest rate environment [19]. - The aviation sector is witnessing a recovery in passenger traffic, but domestic ticket prices are experiencing a significant year-on-year decline [25]. Summary by Sections Shipping - The shipping market is currently weak, with freight rates for major routes declining. The SCFI index for the East America route dropped by 7.5% to $3,126 per FEU [11]. - OPEC+ is expected to approve an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, which may influence shipping rates positively in the latter half of the year [14][16]. - The demand for dry bulk shipping is fluctuating, with iron ore and grain transport demand decreasing, while coal imports remain strong [16]. Infrastructure - As of June 2025, the national port cargo throughput reached 1.56 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, while container throughput grew by 4.7% [50]. - The report highlights the stable performance of leading highway assets, suggesting a dividend yield returning to around 4% [19]. - The CR450 high-speed train is expected to enhance operational capacity significantly once it enters commercial service [18]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of over 20% in 2024, with a 19.3% increase in business volume in the first half of 2025 [20][23]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards price stabilization due to "anti-involution" measures, with potential price increases expected in August [23]. - Major players like ZTO Express and YTO Express are recommended for investment due to their market positioning and growth potential [23]. Aviation - Passenger traffic in the civil aviation sector has shown a week-on-week increase of 3.1%, but domestic ticket prices have seen a year-on-year decline of 9.5% [24][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of "anti-involution" policies in stabilizing the aviation market and improving valuations [25]. - Key airline stocks recommended include Air China and Southern Airlines, with a focus on their recovery potential [25]. Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing a slight decrease in air freight prices, with the TAC Shanghai outbound air freight price index down by 3.8% year-on-year [26]. - China National Freight is highlighted for its potential non-operating income from asset sales, making it a recommended stock [26].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the express delivery sector, driven by anti-involution policies leading to price increases during peak seasons, with expectations of sustained price increases exceeding initial forecasts [2][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese new ship orders rebounded to 75% in July, signaling a recovery in the shipbuilding sector, with Chinese shipyards outperforming their Japanese and Korean counterparts [2][21]. - The report emphasizes the potential for regional collaboration in the express delivery sector, particularly in major grain-producing areas like Guangdong, as the government aims to eliminate price disparities [2]. - The report suggests that the shipping market is experiencing increased volatility due to geopolitical factors, including U.S. tariffs and sanctions on Iran and Russia, which may alter shipping trade routes [2][21]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see price increases as the peak season approaches, with a focus on companies like Jitu Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda [2]. - The report notes that the transition from the off-peak to peak season in August and September will likely lead to price increases that are difficult to reverse [2]. Shipping and Shipbuilding - In July, new ship orders in China returned to 75%, indicating a recovery in the shipbuilding industry, with Chinese shipyards expected to outperform their Japanese and Korean counterparts [2][21]. - The report recommends companies such as China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, and Sumida, while also highlighting the potential impact of geopolitical events on shipping routes [2][21]. Oil and Freight Rates - The report discusses fluctuations in oil prices and their impact on freight rates, noting that VLCC rates have shown signs of stabilization after a decline [2]. - The report indicates that the average MR freight rate increased by 2% to $19,515 per day, reflecting a relatively stable market [2]. Air Transport - The report suggests that the aviation sector is poised for recovery, with the potential for improved profitability as supply constraints and increased passenger volumes are expected to support airline revenues [2]. - Companies such as China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Cathay Pacific are highlighted as key players in the aviation sector [2]. Rail and Road Transport - The report notes that rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic remain resilient, with steady growth expected in these sectors [2]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value management catalysts [2].

Investment Rating - The transportation sector has shown a positive trend with a 3.2% increase in the transportation index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5% during the week of July 19-25, 2025 [1][12]. Core Insights - The transportation sector's fund holdings increased to 32.5 billion yuan, a 17.0% rise compared to the previous quarter, with a market share of 1.95% [2]. - The express delivery segment saw a significant year-on-year growth of 15.8% in June, with SF Express leading the growth [2]. - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. being recommended [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with a 3% increase in domestic passenger volume in June compared to the previous year [4]. - The shipping sector is stabilizing, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing by 10.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk shipping [5][34]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 3.2%, with the airport sector showing the highest increase of 5.6% [1][12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The export container freight index (CCFI) was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% week-on-week and down 40.9% year-on-year [20]. - The domestic container freight index (PDCI) increased by 1.1% week-on-week, indicating a slight recovery in domestic shipping [28]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights reached 16,945, a 3.68% increase year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 2.51% [4]. - The introduction of a new ticket purchasing feature on the airline service platform is expected to enhance customer experience [4]. Rail and Road - National highway freight traffic increased by 0.67% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.01% [6][76]. - The railway passenger volume in June was 373 million, a 3.61% increase year-on-year [73]. Express Delivery - The express delivery business volume reached 16.87 billion pieces in June, with a notable increase in the market share of SF Express [2][44].