欧、美两大线路正陷入冰火两重天的局面。 据德路里数据显示，在过去的一周里，受货量不足影响，美线运价继续下滑，并预计未来一周还将继续走软。 而欧线则是截然相反的局面，截至上周五（11月21号），亚欧运价不但已实现六周连涨，同时基于欧线的货运需求，各大船公司更是再次发出 新一轮的涨价通知，计划从12月1日起执行更高的FAK费率！ | ROUTE | Route code | 6 Nov 2025 | 13 Nov 2025 | 20 Nov 2025 | Weekly | Annual | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | change (%) | change (%) | | Composite Index | WCI-COMPOSITE | $1,959 | $1,859 | $1,852 | 0% | -46% ▼ | | Shanghai - Rotterdam | WCI-SHA-RTM | $1,962 | $2,028 | $2,193 | 8% A | -46% ▼ | | Rotterdam - Shanghai | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [4]. Core Views - The transportation sector has shown a cumulative increase of 1.83% from November 10 to November 15, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 1.08% [14][15]. - The recovery rates for domestic and international passenger traffic in major airlines and airports have significantly improved compared to 2019 levels, indicating a positive trend in the aviation sector [24][32]. - The shipping and logistics sectors are experiencing mixed performance, with container shipping indices showing a decline year-on-year, while oil and product tanker indices have increased significantly [36][47]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - The transportation industry ranked 13th among 31 sectors with a cumulative increase of 1.83% during the week [14]. - Sub-sectors such as ports (+7.44%) and airports (+5.28%) performed particularly well, while cross-border logistics (-1.37%) and road freight (-0.68%) faced declines [15][23]. Aviation and Airports - Major airlines in China have seen recovery rates for domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) in September 2025 reach as high as 176.49% compared to the same month in 2019 [24]. - Key airports like Baiyun, Shanghai, and Capital have also shown strong recovery in passenger throughput, with rates of 125.22% and 115.87% for international traffic [32]. Shipping and Ports - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has decreased by 35.55% year-on-year, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has shown a 23.97% decline [36]. - The CCFI for the East America route reported a decrease of 18.31% year-on-year, while the Mediterranean route saw a decline of 28.56% [36]. Road and Rail - Rail passenger turnover increased by 0.4% year-on-year, while freight volume rose by 4.24% [61]. - Road passenger traffic decreased by 3.82%, but freight volume increased by 5.20% [67]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector achieved a revenue of 127.37 billion yuan in September 2025, marking a 7.20% increase year-on-year [10]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards smaller packages driven by e-commerce, with a notable increase in business volume [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on airlines such as China National Aviation (601111.SH), Southern Airlines (600029.SH), and logistics companies like Huamao Logistics (603128.SH) for potential investment opportunities [9][10].

Core Insights - 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with strategies focusing on "reducing internal competition" and "promoting overseas expansion" as key measures to address current economic challenges and foster new growth momentum in the transportation sector [3]. Group 1: Industry Focus Areas - The transportation industry will concentrate on four main lines of development in alignment with the "14th Five-Year Plan" policies and industry trends [3]. - The aviation and express delivery sectors are highlighted for their potential in achieving high-quality development through reduced internal competition [4]. - The shipping industry is undergoing global changes, with oil transportation experiencing a boom while the dry bulk sector faces challenges [5]. Group 2: Overseas Expansion Opportunities - Jitu Express is positioned as a rare player in Southeast Asia and Latin America, benefiting from the rapid growth of Tiktok and a projected 65% increase in parcel volume in Southeast Asia for the first three quarters of 2025 [6]. - Jiao You International is focusing on logistics in Africa, with coal trade in Mongolia expected to rebound significantly in the second half of 2025, while Africa is anticipated to become a major growth driver [6]. - The aviation sector is expected to see accelerated profit recovery in 2026, with major airlines likely to achieve profitability in 2025 [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The express delivery sector is set to improve in 2026, with the industry experiencing a price recovery following a period of intense competition [6]. - Oil transportation is benefiting from OPEC+ production increases and seasonal demand, leading to rising freight rates [6]. - The dry bulk shipping sector is expected to see a recovery in demand due to new mining projects and potential interest rate cuts [6]. Group 4: Economic Transition and Stability - The report emphasizes the importance of stable output during the economic transition period, with recommendations for investments in highway and port infrastructure [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Red Sea crisis has officially ended after two years as the Yemeni Houthi armed leadership announced the end of attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea [6]. - From 2024 - 2025, shippers were affected by geopolitics and trade wars, but in 2026, with the intensification of supply - demand imbalance, the market will favor shippers, and freight rates will continue to decline [6]. - Maersk emphasizes the advantages of its "twin - star" strategy, with annual cost savings of $720 million - $950 million and a schedule reliability of over 90% [6]. - In November, shipping capacity has recovered, with available capacity on US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15%, and the overall TPBB route capacity expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. Market demand remains healthy after the pre - peak season booking rush [6]. - The EC market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The 02 contract had a subsidy - to - premium market due to rumors of early delivery, and the market declined on Wednesday due to the end of Houthi attacks [7]. - Spot prices of different shipping companies show obvious differentiation. Key factors affecting the market include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the consistency of shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term contract variables. In the short term, the market is likely to remain strongly volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract [8]. 3. Directory Summaries Shipping Index Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), and other related sub - indices are provided, along with their previous values and percentage changes. For example, SCFI decreased by 3.59%, while CCFI increased by 3.60% [3][4]. - **Contract Data**: The current values, previous values, and percentage changes of contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc. are given. For instance, EC2506 increased by 1.17% [3][4][5]. - **Position Data**: The current and previous positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2608, etc., along with their changes, are presented. For example, the position of EC2606 increased by 56 [5]. - **Monthly Spread Data**: The current values, previous values, and changes of monthly spreads such as 12 - 02, 12 - 04, etc. are provided. For example, the 12 - 02 spread increased by 37.5 [5]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **Market Analysis**: The end of the Red Sea crisis, supply - demand imbalance, Maersk's strategy, capacity recovery, and factors affecting spot prices are analyzed [6][7][8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [9].

Core Insights - Shandong Port is enhancing its global logistics capabilities through comprehensive services including terminal operations, logistics transportation, financial services, trade services, and shipping services, aiming to become a world-class maritime port cluster [1][2][4]. Group 1: Services Offered - Shandong Port provides extensive terminal handling services with over 380 productive berths across 21 major port areas, facilitating global reach to over 700 ports in more than 180 countries [1]. - The port offers "end-to-end" logistics services with over 80 logistics options, covering everything from warehousing to multimodal transport [1]. - Financial services include 15 types of financial licenses and 30 financial business entities, catering to diverse supply chain financial needs [1]. - Trade services encompass over 30 types of goods, with 10 goods achieving transaction volumes of over one million tons, supporting upstream procurement and downstream supply [1]. - Shipping services feature a fleet of over 70 vessels with a total capacity exceeding 1.1 million tons, including key routes to Japan and South Korea [1]. Group 2: Development Achievements - Since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, Shandong Port has added over 50 productive berths, increasing its annual throughput capacity by 180 million tons to nearly 1 billion tons [5]. - The port has expanded its container shipping routes by over 50, totaling more than 360 routes, maintaining the highest route density among northern Chinese ports [5]. - The port's inland logistics network includes 54 inland ports and 106 container rail-sea intermodal routes, achieving a rail-sea intermodal operation volume of over 4.2 million TEUs [5]. Group 3: International Expansion - Shandong Port has established four overseas regional companies and seven overseas representative offices, enhancing its global operational capacity with over 1 million tons of annual operations [6]. - The port has formed partnerships with over 50 friendly ports worldwide, strengthening its global supply chain service network [6]. Group 4: Supply Chain Services - The port has developed a comprehensive supply chain service system integrating port, finance, shipping, trade, logistics, and overseas services, with 80 logistics business types and 15 financial licenses [8][9]. - The trade volume of goods has increased to over 30 types, with significant contributions to domestic and international trade, including partnerships with major global companies [9][10]. Group 5: Technological and Environmental Advancements - Shandong Port has made significant strides in automation, with the first fully automated container terminal in Asia achieving record operational efficiency [12][13]. - The port has implemented a green port strategy, achieving a clean energy usage rate of 65% and enhancing its environmental quality [15]. - The port's digital transformation includes the establishment of a comprehensive supply chain service platform, significantly improving operational efficiency and service delivery [14].

Group 1: Aviation and Airports - The number of visa-free foreign visitors to China has increased by 52%, which is expected to drive the recovery of aviation and gradually restore airport profitability [2][5][7] - International passenger traffic is projected to grow by 25% in 2025, with a significant contribution from visa-free foreign visitors [16][18] - Major airports have seen passenger throughput recover to 2019 levels, with international passenger volume at Pudong Airport increasing by 23% year-on-year [28][26] Group 2: Shipping and Ports - Exports to ASEAN and Africa have increased by 15% and 28% respectively, benefiting regional shipping and port companies [3][44] - The new land-sea corridor in the western region has seen container volume grow by 70%, indicating strong demand for shipping services [3][44] - The global shipping demand is expected to grow slowly in 2026, with supply pressures potentially leading to lower freight rates [33] Group 3: Highways and Logistics - There is a potential for toll increases on existing highways, with some provinces already raising rates by over 30% [45][47] - The express delivery sector is showing signs of recovery, with price increases expected as competition stabilizes [58][60] - The logistics supply chain is expected to benefit from the monetization of traffic and new business growth, with significant revenue increases projected [61][64] Group 4: New Energy Vehicles and Smart Driving - Sales of electric heavy trucks have surged by 198%, with freight costs reduced by 16%, indicating a shift towards electrification in logistics [4][73] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rapidly increasing, with significant implications for road transport efficiency and cost [80][79] - Companies in the smart driving sector are expected to see substantial growth, driven by technological advancements and increased market demand [81]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The market situation of shipping derivatives shows a weak oscillation. The short - term macro - positive factors, capacity control, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectation is falsified, the main contract is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for the December contract [6][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shipping Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1495, 1058, 2212, 1329, 2848, 1323 respectively. Their previous values were 1551, 1021, 2647, 1208, 3438, 1344, with corresponding changes of - 3.59%, 3.60%, - 16.43%, 10.02%, - 17.16%, - 1.56%. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1504 and 2029, with previous values of 1208 and 1983, and changes of 24.50% and 2.32% [4] 2. Shipping Contracts - For contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, the current values are 1395.2, 1495.2, 1134.1, 1778.2, 1604.9, 1166.1 respectively. Their previous values were 1376.1, 1499.2, 1133.4, 1812.0, 1592.0, 1164.6, with corresponding changes of 1.39%, - 0.27%, 0.06%, - 1.87%, 0.81%, 0.13% [4] 3. Contract Positions - The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604 are 1446, 1286, 1485, 26680, 24696, 14451 respectively. Their previous positions were 1452, 1311, 1464, 25887, 22939, 14330, with changes of - 6, - 25, 21, 793, 1757, 121 [4] 4. Month - to - Month Spreads - The current values of month - to - month spreads 12 - 02, 12 - 04, 02 - 04 are 173.3, 612.1, 438.8 respectively. Their previous values were 220.0, 647.4, 427.4, with changes of - 46.7, - 35.3, 11.4 [4] 5. Industry News and Market Analysis - CMA states that no route can replace the Suez Canal, will continue using it, and expects to increase voyages through it. In 2026, the market will favor shippers, with freight rates falling. Maersk emphasizes the advantages of twins, achieving annual cost savings of 7 - 9.5 billion US dollars. In November, capacity has recovered, with available capacity on US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15%. The overall TPBB route capacity is expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. Market demand in November remains healthy [5] 6. Market Factors and Outlook - The market shows a weak oscillation mainly because MSK's late - November quotes are much lower than other airlines. Key influencing factors include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the sustainability of airline strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables. Short - term macro - positive factors, capacity control, and price - support expectations will support the market. It is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract and closely monitor suspension and loading rates [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Outlook: Oscillating with an upward trend [1] Core Viewpoints - The cease - fire agreement in the Middle East is under impact, and the expectation of long - term resumption of shipping has weakened again. The tariff market is relatively optimistic. The low shipping capacity in weeks 45 and 46 supports the loading rates of OCEAN and GEMINI. There is still an expected price increase in mid - November. After the positive event on the macro - level is realized tomorrow, low - buying opportunities for contracts 12 and 02 can be considered [1] Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Price - MSK will increase the peak - season surcharge to $300/FEU from November 12, up from $100/FEU at the beginning of November. YNL has lowered the shipping price in early November to $1850/FEU, a $50 decrease from the previous level. GEMINI: NSK's shipping price for the second week of November is $2200/FEB, and HPL's price in early November remains at $2135 - $2335. OCEAN: 00GL's price in the first half of November is $2150 - $2400/FEU. MSGSPA: YML's price in early November has been reduced from $1900 to $1850/FEU, while MSC, ONE, and HRN maintain their prices at $2265, $2135, and $1906/FEU respectively [1] Futures Contracts - Contracts 12 and 02 oscillated strongly today. The 12 - contract once rose more than 65 points during the session, reaching 1883.5 points, the highest since last Friday, with an increase of more than 3300 lots. At the close, the 12 - contract closed at 1871 points, up 5.08%; the 02 - contract rose 3.66% to 1606 points, with an increase of nearly 2000 lots. The increases of contracts 04, 06, and 08 are between 2.88% and 3.5% [1] Geopolitical and Trade Events - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered a "powerful strike" on Hamas, putting the cease - fire agreement brokered by the US into crisis. The Chinese and US leaders will hold a meeting on October 30 to exchange views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The EC market is in a volatile state. The weak volatility this week is due to some airlines starting to lower their quotes for the first ten days of November. The European line is in the regular year - end price - holding stage. The first round of defensive price - holding in late October has initially stopped the decline, and it has now entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding actions are expected in the next two months. However, attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and empty flights in November. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content China Export Container Freight Rates - **Rate Index**: The present values of SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - Northwest Europe, and the comprehensive index SCFI are 1403, 2153, 3032, 1107, and 1246 respectively, with corresponding increases of 2.02%, 6.27%, 7.11%, 11.21%, and 28.42%. The present values of SCFI - Mediterranean and SCFIS - Northwest Europe are 1312 and 1746 respectively, with increases of 15.09% and 8.25% [3]. Contracts - **Contract Price**: For contracts EC2506, EC5602, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, the present values are 1482.0, 1374.0, 1788.3, 1548.7, 1162.7 respectively, with changes of - 0.94%, 0.11%, VALUE!, 0.75%, - 1.46% [3][4]. - **Contract Position**: The present positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604 are 1402, 1313, N/A, 28900, 13910, 14279 respectively, with changes of 31, 64, VALUE!, 905, 772, 133 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The present values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4 monthly spreads are VALUE!, 239.6, 625.6 respectively, with changes of VALUE!, 36.2, 29.4 [4]. Market News - The US Treasury Secretary has reached a framework agreement with China's vice - premier to avoid 100% US tariffs on Chinese products and extend China's rare - earth export controls. The US President is confident of reaching an agreement with China's leader [5]. - Some shipping companies like CMA CGM, Maersk, and Mediterranean Shipping are re - flagging their vessels to India. The Suez Canal Authority expects its 2026 revenue to reach about $8 billion, up from the current $4 billion. The US and Vietnam have agreed on a trade framework agreement [5]. EC Market - **Spot Prices**: In late October, Maersk quoted 1800 - 1900, HPL 1900, 00CL 2600, CMA 2100, EMC 2050, NSC 2050, YML 1350, ONE 1450. In early November, ISK quoted 2400, HEJ 2500, CME 2700, OOCJ 2300, EMC 2700, MSC 2250, YML 2250, ONE 2550, HMM 1900 [6]. - **Logic and Strategy**: The European line is in the year - end price - holding stage. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [4][10][12]. Core Views - The transportation sector is experiencing a recovery in passenger and freight volumes, driven by the resumption of domestic and international travel, as well as a rebound in logistics demand [8][12]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, which is expected to further enhance the performance of airlines and logistics companies [12][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - From October 20 to October 25, 2025, the transportation sector recorded a cumulative increase of +0.72%, ranking 24th among 31 SW primary industries, while the CSI 300 index rose by +3.24% [16][18]. - Sub-sectors within transportation showed varied performance, with public transport (+4.81%) and warehousing logistics (+2.88%) leading the gains, while shipping experienced a decline of -1.28% [18][19]. Aviation and Airports - In September 2025, major listed airlines in China showed significant recovery in domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) compared to 2019, with China Southern Airlines at 116.42% and Spring Airlines at 176.49% [27]. - Major airports also reported recovery in passenger throughput, with Baiyun Airport and Shanghai Airport achieving recovery rates of 115.74% and 125.22% for domestic passengers, respectively [35]. Shipping and Ports - As of October 24, 2025, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was at 1403.46 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +7.11% but a year-on-year decrease of -35.78% [39]. - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) reported a value of 992.74 points, with a week-on-week increase of +2.02% and a year-on-year decrease of -27.35% [39]. Road and Rail - In September 2025, railway passenger volume reached 341 million, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of -0.24%, while freight volume increased by +4.24% to 4.45 million tons [64]. - Road transport saw a significant decline in passenger volume, down -43.82% year-on-year, while freight volume increased by +5.20% to 38.91 million tons [70]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector achieved a revenue of 127.37 billion yuan in September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of +7.20%, with business volume rising by +12.70% to 16.88 billion parcels [12].