Workflow
散运市场向好
icon
Search documents
招商轮船(601872):25Q3归母净利同比+35%至11.8亿 VLCC旺季弹性初显 增产+制裁驱动运价向好 重申“强烈推荐”评级
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-31 14:29
Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 financial results, showing mixed performance across different segments, with oil transportation and bulk shipping showing positive trends, while the overall net profit declined slightly year-on-year. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters reached 19.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with Q3 revenue at 6.73 billion, up 10.9% year-on-year but down 3.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 3.30 billion, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, with Q3 net profit at 1.18 billion, up 34.7% year-on-year but down 6.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Non-recurring gains and losses in Q3 amounted to approximately 180 million, primarily due to the increase in fair value of listed company shares and the acquisition of a stake in Antong Holdings announced in July [1] Oil Transportation - Q3 oil transportation revenue was estimated at 2.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, with net profit at 600 million, up 55.1% year-on-year but down 25.9% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The increase in oil tanker rates is attributed to active cargo demand from the Atlantic, OPEC+ production increases, and sanctions affecting oil supply, leading to a significant rise in rates [2] - The company’s VLCC fleet achieved TCE rates exceeding market averages, with Q4 spot operations expected to see a substantial increase [2] Bulk Shipping - Q3 bulk shipping revenue was 2.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with net profit at 290 million, down 21.1% year-on-year but up 11% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The increase in demand for bulk shipping is driven by extended grain shipments from South America and increased soybean procurement by China [3] - The BDI index averaged 1978 points in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35% [3] Mid-term Outlook - The mid-term outlook for bulk shipping is positive, with supply growth slowing and moderate demand growth expected [4] - The company anticipates steady growth in earnings from container shipping and LNG transportation, while roll-on/roll-off shipping has seen a decline [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 6.03 billion, 7.56 billion, and 8.58 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 10, and 9 [4]