南华期货2025年度集运四季度展望 —— 行到水穷处，坐看云起时 俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月 目录 章节 2.4 供应增速如预期下降，存量仍存压力 四、 估值反馈及供需展望 . 一、 观点概要 1.1 运价预计"U"字形变动 1.1.1 趋势预测 1.1.2 区间展望 1.1.3 策略展望 1.2 风险点 二、 行情回顾 2.1 集运运价走势回顾 2.2 集运期价走势回顾 2.3 需求如预期"旺季不旺" 2.4.1 有效运力偏高 2.4.2 新船签订与交付放缓 2.4.3 红海绕航结构基本稳定 三、 核心关注要点 3.1 关税变动 3.2 船司举措：是否挺价维稳运费 3.3 基本面：整体偏弱 一、观点概要 1.1 运价预计"U"字形变动 1.1.1 趋势预测 从基本面来看，需求方面，今年总体相对偏弱，而从往年季节性和当前市场订舱表现来看，需求淡季预 计将一直持续至十一月前，后有所回升；而供应方面，虽船司存在停航等控制运力，但停航运力仍相对不 足，供过于求情况延续，故预计欧线运价与期价中期仍延续震荡偏弱的态势，至11月开始有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows a deep decline in the container shipping freight index at a low level, with power plant daily consumption experiencing a seasonal decline, and inflation marked by a further drop in pork prices [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Deep Decline in Container Shipping Freight Index at a Low Level 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has declined seasonally. On September 23, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 864,000 tons, a 4.0% decrease from September 16. On September 17, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.262 million tons, a 0.4% decrease from September 10 [4]. - The blast furnace operating rate has continued to rise. On September 19, the national blast furnace operating rate was 84.0%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from September 12, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.4%, also a 0.2 - percentage - point increase. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 93.0% on September 19, a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from September 12 [4]. - The tire operating rate has rebounded moderately. On September 18, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 65.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, and that of passenger car semi - steel tires was 73.7%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase [4]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has slightly declined. On September 18, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 62.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease [4]. 3.1.2 Demand: New Home Sales in 30 Cities Exceeded the Same Period Last Year - From September 1 - 23, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 210,000 square meters, an 8.8% increase from the same period in August, a 13.7% increase from September last year, and a 30.6% decrease from September 2023 [4]. - The retail trend in the auto market has been stable. In September, retail sales increased by 1% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 0% year - on - year [4]. - Steel prices have been weak. On September 23, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.9%, 1.1%, 2.0%, and increased by 0.03% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - Cement prices have weakly rebounded. On September 23, the national cement price index increased by 2.3% compared to September 16, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions rising by 3.5% and 4.8% respectively [4]. - Glass prices have fluctuated widely. On September 23, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,181 yuan/ton, a 4.4% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The container shipping freight index has deeply declined at a low level. On September 19, the CCFI index decreased by 0.5% compared to September 12, and the SCFI index dropped by 14.3% [4]. 3.2 Inflation: Further Drop in Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Further Drop in Pork Prices - Pork prices have further declined. On September 23, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.6 yuan/kg, a 1.6% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The agricultural product price index has moderately rebounded. On September 23, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.2% compared to September 16. By variety, eggs (up 4.4%) > fruits (up 1.3%) > mutton (up 0.6%) > chicken (up 0.5%) > beef (up 0.4%) > vegetables (up 0.2%) > pork (down 1.6%) [4]. 3.2.2 PPI: Weak Oscillation in Oil Prices - Oil prices have shown a weak oscillation. On September 23, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.6 and $63.4 per barrel respectively, a 0.03% and 1.7% decrease from September 16 [4]. - Copper and aluminum prices have turned down. On September 23, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.7% and 2.9% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - The decline in the domestic commodity index has widened on a month - on - month basis. On September 23, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 2.1% compared to September 16, and the CRB index decreased by 1.3% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huayuan Securities indicates that China Merchants Energy achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.125 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.91%. However, the second quarter saw a net profit of 1.259 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.25% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.49% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company continued to expand its capacity and opened new routes in Asia and Latin America [1] - The company's net profit from container shipping increased significantly by 161.67% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] - The weak oil and bulk shipping markets are contrasted by the substantial increase in container shipping profits, highlighting the company's resilience [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The implementation of the U.S. tariff policy is expected to create structural growth opportunities for routes within Asia and between China and Latin America due to cost advantages in Southeast Asia and South America [1] - The domestic "anti-involution" trend and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle are anticipated to support commodity prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - The expected production of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea by the end of 2025, along with the growth in bauxite exports from Guinea, may boost demand for bulk shipping [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Given the upward fundamentals in the oil and bulk shipping markets, the company is expected to benefit from a dual business resonance [1] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company's stock [1]

Group 1 - Company reported a revenue of 1090.99 billion RMB, an increase of 7.78% year-on-year [1] - Shareholder profit attributable to the company was 17.528 billion RMB, up 3.9% year-on-year [1] - In Q2, the company's main revenue was 511.39 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.41% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 was 5.842 billion RMB, down 42.25% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 1.12 RMB, with an interim dividend proposed at 0.56 RMB per share [1] - Short-term demand for container shipping may depend on US-China tariff policies, while medium to long-term profitability remains under pressure due to weak economic performance in Europe and the US [1]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown signs of recovery, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 5.9% [2][6] - Midstream production shows a mixed outlook, with PTA and automotive production performing poorly, down 6.6% and 5.9% year-on-year respectively, while soda ash and polyester filament production improved, up 0.1% to 5.8% and 0.9% to 3.1% respectively [2][16] - Cement production continues to improve, with the national grinding operating rate down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to -5.6%, and cement shipment rates slightly up by 0.8% to -2.9% [28][32] Group 2: Demand Tracking - Daily average transaction area of new homes remains weak, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year to -6.3%, with first-tier cities showing some recovery [52] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has significantly increased, with cargo throughput and container throughput up 7.1% to 9.7% and 6.1% to 14.8% year-on-year respectively [61][68] - The national migration scale index has decreased by 5.2 percentage points year-on-year to 16.6%, but domestic flight operations have increased by 1.0% to 2.7% [73] Group 3: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and fruit prices down 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and vegetable prices increased by 1.7% and 2.5% [3][101] - The industrial product price index has generally declined, with the Nanhua industrial product price index down 1.4% [113] - The energy and chemical price index decreased by 0.9%, and the metal price index fell by 1.7% [113][120]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Economic growth shows a slowdown in the decline of container shipping freight rate indices, with power plant daily consumption falling from a high level, and demand - side indicators showing mixed trends [1][4]. - Inflation presents a situation where pork prices are slowly falling at a low level, and there are fluctuations in CPI and PPI components [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Slowdown in the Decline of Container Shipping Freight Rate Indices 1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Falls from a High Level - Power plant daily consumption has declined. On August 19, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 912,000 tons, a 4.5% drop from August 12. On August 14, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.369 million tons, a 5.3% drop from August 6 [4][11]. - Blast furnace operating rates fluctuated slightly. On August 15, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from August 8, while the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, up 0.2 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills remained flat at 92.6% [4][17]. - Tire operating rates were weakly stable. On August 14, the operating rate of truck - used all - steel tires was 63.1%, up 2.1 percentage points from August 7, and that of car - used semi - steel tires was 72.1%, down 2.3 percentage points [4][19]. 1.2 Demand: Slowdown in the Decline of Container Shipping Freight Rate Indices - The decline in the month - on - month sales of new homes in 30 cities slowed down. From August 1 to 19, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 179,000 square meters, down 6.1% from July, 15.0% from August last year, and 32.4% from August 2023 [4][24]. - The retail sales of the auto market are gradually picking up. In August, retail sales increased by 2% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 20% year - on - year [4][27]. - Steel prices generally fell. On August 19, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled prices decreased by 3.5%, 3.1%, 2.8%, and 0.2% respectively compared to August 12 [4][32]. - Cement prices generally rebounded. On August 19, the national cement price index rose 1.4% from August 12, with prices in East China and the Yangtze River region rising 4.4% and 4.3% respectively [4][33]. - Glass prices stopped falling and rebounded. On August 19, the active glass futures contract price was 1,215 yuan/ton, up 13.9% from August 12 [4][37]. - The decline of container shipping freight rate indices slowed down. On August 15, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% from August 8, and the SCFI index decreased by 2.0% [4][40]. 2. Inflation: Slow Fall of Pork Prices at a Low Level 2.1 CPI: Slow Fall of Pork Prices at a Low Level - Pork prices are slowly falling at a low level. On August 19, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.2 yuan/kg, a 0.2% drop from August 12 [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index is slowly rising. On August 19, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.8% from August 12, with different fluctuations in various varieties [4][51]. 2.2 PPI: Weak Fluctuation of Oil Prices - Oil prices are weakly fluctuating. On August 19, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $67.6 and $62.4 per barrel respectively, down 0.01% and 1.3% from August 12 [4][54]. - Copper and aluminum prices declined. On August 19, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices decreased by 0.2% and 1.4% respectively compared to August 12 [4][58]. - The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index narrowed. On August 19, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 2.5% from August 12, and the CRB index decreased by 0.3% from August 11 [4][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [8] Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to see significant profit recovery due to an early price increase trend, while the aviation sector is still at the bottom of the economic cycle, with potential for mid-term improvements in supply and demand [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In June, the retail sales and express delivery volumes showed year-on-year increases of 5.3% and 15.8% respectively, although the growth rate has slowed compared to May [3] - The price increase trend has started in core grain-producing areas, which could lead to significant profit recovery for express delivery companies if this trend spreads across all price ranges [3][10] - Key companies recommended include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shunfeng Express [10] Aviation - The summer travel season has shown weak performance, with domestic ticket prices declining by 7.5% year-on-year, despite a slight increase in passenger load factor [2][16] - The aviation sector is currently at a low point, but improvements in supply growth and demand could enhance profitability in the medium term [26] - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation and Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [26] Logistics - The logistics sector is experiencing an early price increase in express delivery, and the bulk supply chain is expected to recover alongside rising commodity prices [3][65] - The cross-border e-commerce logistics sector is showing resilience as tariff impacts diminish [3] Shipping and Ports - In July, shipping rates for container shipping and oil transport declined, while dry bulk shipping rates increased due to seasonal demand [35][36] - The report anticipates stable supply-demand dynamics in August, with shipping rates expected to remain volatile [35] Road and Rail - The road transport sector is under pressure due to rising risk preferences and potential impacts from upstream industry dynamics [5] - Rail transport is expected to see flat growth in passenger traffic during the summer, with ongoing observations needed for the impact of upstream industry changes [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fifth week of July, futures sentiment cooled down, and spot prices mostly had small month - on - month declines, but prices were still higher than at the end of June. Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. Container shipping prices continued to fall, and port cargo volume decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year. In the industrial sector, the incremental measures from the Politburo meeting in July were slightly weaker than expected, causing futures sentiment to cool and investment product prices to decline. In the investment sector, typhoon and rainfall affected construction activities, leading to a continued decline in cement prices. In the real estate sector, the end - of - month sales rush for new homes was evident, while second - hand home sales continued to decline, in line with seasonality [4][34]. - For the bond market, short - term implementation of anti - involution policies, price transmission, and the impact of production control on industrial growth are worthy of attention. "Broad credit" disturbances may increase compared to July. Externally, the results of China - US economic and trade negotiations were in line with expectations, and the market reaction was muted. Export resilience remains, but its elasticity is decreasing, and the weakening of "rush exports" may gradually materialize. Internally, the strong futures market last week driven by major infrastructure projects and "anti - involution" led to spot price increases. This week, futures sentiment cooled, and spot demand weakened due to weather conditions. Although industrial product prices generally corrected, they were still higher than before July. In the future, price increase elasticity may be limited in the short term, but the recovery trend is hard to disprove, which may support equity sentiment. Urban renewal may accelerate, and the implementation of policy - based financial instruments is expected. August is the policy effect verification stage, increasing the importance of data observation [4][35]. Summary by Directory Inflation - related - Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. The wholesale price index of 200 agricultural products and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.05% and 0.03% month - on - month respectively. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% month - on - month, while vegetable prices rose, and the decline in fruit prices narrowed [4][10]. Import - Export related - Container shipping prices continued to decline. The CCFI index decreased by 2.3% month - on - month, and the SCFI decreased by 2.6% month - on - month. From July 21st to July 27th, port container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 6.5% and 4.3% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 11.5% and 13.3% year - on - year. The BDI index decreased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the CDFI index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [12]. Industrial related - The price of thermal coal continued to rise. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.4% month - on - month with a narrowing increase. The price of rebar reversed from an increase to a decrease, with a 0.26% month - on - month decline in spot price. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.1% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened to 5.7%. Copper prices decreased month - on - month, affected by the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar. Glass prices also reversed from an increase to a decrease as futures market sentiment cooled [14][18][19]. Investment related - Cement prices continued to weaken, with a 1.40% month - on - month decline in the national cement price index and a narrowing decline. In the real estate sector, from July 25th to July 31st, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities increased by 25% month - on - month but decreased by 15.4% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities decreased by 4.6% month - on - month but increased by 5.1% year - on - year [20][29]. Consumption - From July 1st to July 27th, passenger car retail sales decreased by 19% month - on - month compared to the same period in June but increased by 9% year - on - year. From July 21st to July 27th, retail sales decreased by 30% month - on - month and increased by 5% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.8% and 3.3% month - on - month respectively, boosted by factors such as a trade agreement between the US and Europe and supply - side constraints [30].

Group 1 - The North American shipping rates have shown a slight rebound after four weeks of decline, with the rate from Shanghai to the West Coast reaching $2,194/FEU, a 5.0% increase from the previous period, but still down 60% from the peak on June 6 [1] - The ongoing "tariff war" has become a focal point in the market, with the U.S. extending the delay on "reciprocal tariffs" until August 1, and imposing new tariffs on multiple countries, including a 50% tariff on copper [1] - The overall demand for shipping is weakening, and the oversupply of capacity on trans-Pacific routes is driving rates down, with shipping companies expected to cut capacity by 25% in August [2][3] Group 2 - The shipping rates for the U.S. West Coast have dropped significantly, with some smaller players quoting as low as $1,400/FEU, while the majority of shipping alliances maintain rates around $1,700 to $1,800/FEU [3] - The first half of the year saw a 9.3% year-on-year decline in China's total import and export value with the U.S., with a 20.8% drop in the second quarter due to the "reciprocal tariffs" [2] - The European shipping rates have seen a slight decline, with the rate from Shanghai to European ports dropping by 0.1% and 7.0% for Mediterranean ports, while the overall economic recovery in Europe remains stable [5][6] Group 3 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, with Maersk resuming services at Haifa Port, while risks in the Red Sea region are increasing due to recent attacks on vessels [5] - The market for Asia-Europe shipping rates is expected to rise in the coming weeks due to operational inefficiencies and increased congestion at European ports [7] - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. on EU imports starting August 1 are likely to disrupt trade flows and strengthen cooperation between China and the EU [6]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 3. Core View - The spot price increase at the beginning of July exceeded expectations, and the SCFIS settlement index further rebounded above 2,200 points. The peak - season price increase expectation has started to recover, and with good cargo volume and port congestion in Europe, the price increase in the peak season is expected to materialize. The 08 contract still has some upward space, while the 10 - month is a traditional off - season, so attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities at low levels [8]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The price increase at the beginning of July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2,200 points. Most airlines maintained stable quotes in July, with the median of the second - half - of - July quotes around $3,660. There are few airlines that have quoted for August. The peak - season price increase expectation has recovered, and the 08 contract has upward potential, while the 10 - month contract offers short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities [8]. 4.2 Industry News - Market Conditions (June 30 - July 4): The China Export Container Shipping Market remained stable, with the comprehensive index adjusting. The manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49.7, and the new order index entered the expansion range. The non - manufacturing PMI was above the boom - bust line [9]. - European Routes: The eurozone unemployment rate in May was 6.3%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. The Shanghai - to - Europe basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2,101/TEU, up 3.5% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, but the supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly. The Shanghai - to - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2,869/TEU, down 3.9% from the previous period [9]. - North American Routes: The US manufacturing PMI in June was 49, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The Shanghai - to - US West and East basic port market freight rates on July 4 were $2,089/FEU and $4,124/FEU respectively, down 19.0% and 12.6% from the previous period [9][10]. - Geopolitical Events: Houthi attacks on Israel, US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, and relevant responses from China and the international community [10]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | July 7, 2025 | June 30, 2025 | Change | MoM (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai - Europe (Basic Ports) | 2,258.04 | 2,123.24 | 134.8 | 6.3 | | Shanghai - US West (Basic Ports) | 1,557.77 | 1,619.19 | - 61.42 | - 3.8 | [12] 4.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Transaction data of multiple contracts on July 8 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate are provided, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][18]