研究所 期货眼·日迹 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 3 月 2 日 0 / 50 | | | | 蛋白粕：宏观扰动增加 | 价格整体高位 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖业下调全球糖产 | 国际糖价震荡 6 | | 油脂板块：地缘冲突升级，油脂波动或加大 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货上涨，盘面继续冲高 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力较大 | 价格继续下行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：苹果需求有所好转 | 价格较为坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面有所支撑 | 棉价表现偏强 12 | | 钢材：地缘冲突爆发，钢价震荡跟涨 14 | | --- | | 双焦：地缘冲突加剧，可尝试逢低做多 14 | | 铁矿：地缘冲突加大，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：陕西差别电价落地，震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：地缘冲突爆发，避险主导金银 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：中东地缘冲突升级 避险需求推升贵金属价格 18 | | 铜：短期高位盘整，回调后 ...

集运股全线走高，截至发稿，中远海发（601866）(02866)涨6.09%，报1.22港元；中远海控（601919） (01919)涨2.82%，报14.96港元；东方海外国际(00316)涨2.52%，报146.6港元；海丰国际(01308)涨 0.73%，报33.22港元。 消息面上，2月3日，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服务的航行路线，重新经由红 海及苏伊士运河运输。然而本应首次实现复航红海的"Maersk Detroit"号，在实际执行中转向南下绕行非 洲好望角。公司解释：改道系因西地中海恶劣天气造成船期延误，公司因此决定调整航行计划，经好望 角绕行。 申万宏源发布研报称，此次绕行意味着红海复航仍无法在短时间内落地。此外，市场已经进入3月初船 期，随着春节假期后工厂的复工复产，预计需求有望得到改善。关注节后航司选涨、挺价等相关动作。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the near - term, under the influence of Maersk's stable February quotes, March rush - shipping expectations, April off - season expectations, and long - term contract price suppression, the 04 contract is expected to oscillate between 1100 - 1250 points. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling the 04 contract, and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium on the market. In the future, focus on the PA alliance's quotes and geopolitical situations [3]. - In the long - term, it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, based on the off - season and negative factors. The valuations of 06 and 08 are difficult to anchor, and they will oscillate widely within a reasonable range. Under geopolitical fluctuations, cautious operations are advised [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and price changes of contracts such as EC2602 (1737.8, +1.03%), EC2604 (1237.9, +4.50%), EC2606 (1533.7, +1.36%), EC2608 (1597.9, - 0.62%), and EC2610 (1128.6, - 0.12%) are presented. Their corresponding trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes are also provided [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between contracts like EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606, along with their comparisons with previous days and weeks, are given. For example, the spread of EC2502 - 2604 is 499.9, with a day - on - day change of - 35.5 and a week - on - week change of 9.9 [2]. - **Indicators**: The updated frequency, release dates, and values of indicators such as the Super Crystal Index (1792.14, - 3.61% from the previous period) and SCFI (1418, - 11.10% from the previous period) are shown [2]. Spot Situation - Downstream is currently booking cargo space for early February. The overall cargo collection of ships is good, but the pressure to attract cargo has increased. The price center in Week 7 is 2140 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. From Week 8 - 9, Maersk's opening price is 1950 US dollars, unchanged from the previous period, and other shipping companies' quotes remain the same for now [4]. News - On February 3, Maersk and HPL decided to resume a route of the GEMINI alliance on the Suez Canal. Starting from mid - February 2026, structural changes will be made to Maersk's ME11 service, redirecting it to the Red Sea and Suez Canal [5]. - On February 4, the Israeli Prime Minister met with a US envoy to discuss the Iran issue. The meeting lasted over three hours, and the Israeli Prime Minister expressed a firm stance on issues such as Hamas's disarmament and Gaza's demilitarization [5]. - US media reported on February 3 that an American - flagged oil tanker was approached by six Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker continued its journey under the escort of a US warship [6].

GEM NI: MSKAE3航线仍有差价位于1995-2005美元/FEU, AE1航线1900美元/FEU沿用至2月末。HPL-SPOT价格持平位于2035美元/FEU OCEAN: 29日下午, CMA2月15日后线上运价下调200美元/FEU至2293美元/FEU,报价沿用至2月下旬;达飞对2月下半月运价位于 2293-2493美元/FEU波动,较上半月小幅调降。 【中信期货航运(集运)】地缘情绪紧张06、08合约偏 2026/1/29 强,CMA2月下半月运价调降200美元 投资咨询业务资格: サ 工业与周期组 究 证监许可【2012】669号 安婕锐 武嘉路 员 从业资格号:F03100682 从业资格号:F03117373 投资咨询号: Z0021085 投资咨询号: Z0022651 近期集运走势偏强,地缘方面,根据我们前期日报和以色列时报报道,在伊朗危机之下,胡塞武装威胁有可能再度对红海航运袭 击,远月的复航预期松动,带动06、08合约偏强,而现货方面据极羽线上报价,MSK本周开舱2月第二周至月底价格 1900美元/FEU环比 跌100美元，开舱价跌幅收窄,而达飞2月下旬线上运价较上半月小幅调 ...

经济增长：补贴退潮，车市走弱 (1) 猪价涨势渐颓。1 月 27 日，猪肉平均批发价为 18.7 元/公斤，较 1 月 20 日上涨 1.0%。 (2) 农产品价格指数偏强运行。1 月 27 日，农产品批发价格指数较 1 月 20 日上涨 0.1%。分品种看，鸡蛋（上涨 4.7%）> 猪肉（上涨 1.0%）>羊肉（上涨 0.8%）>牛肉（上涨 0.2%）>水果 (上涨 0.1%）>蔬菜（下跌 0.7%）>鸡肉（下跌 1.3%）。 PPI：油价温和上涨 (1) 油价温和上涨。1 月 27 日，布伦特和 WTI 原油现货价报 69.5 和 62.4 美元/桶，较 1 月 20 日分别上涨 2.0%和上 涨 3.4%。 (2) 铜铝回升。1 月 27 日，LME3 月铜价和铝价较 1 月 20 日分别上涨 0.8%和上涨 1.3%。 (3) 国内商品指数环比转涨。1 月 27 日，南华工业品指数较 1 月 20 日上涨 2.1%；1 月 27 日，CRB 指数较 1 月 20 日 上涨 2.1%。 生产：电厂日耗超出去年同期 通货膨胀：猪价涨势渐颓 CPI：猪价涨势渐颓 风险提示 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样， ...

Week5: MSK开舱2450 (环比-300) , PA2400 (特价2200) , OA2500-2700美金。中枢2500美金, 折盘1750点, 消息面 Week6: MSK开舱2050 (环比-400) , PA2200附近, MSC2340, OA2400-2500美金, 中枢2320美金, 折盘1625点, | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/1/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持色变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1717.7 | 0.59% | 236.5 | 532 | | 4401 | -280 | | | EC2604 | | 1138.3 | 0.05% | 815.9 | 30781 | | 41149 | 379 | | | EC2606 | | 1412.9 | 0.99% | 541.3 | 4476 | | 5791 | 908 | | | ...

Group 1: Economic Growth Production - Power plant daily consumption is higher than the same period last year. On January 13, the average daily consumption of 6 major power generation groups was 826,000 tons, a 2.7% decrease from January 6. On January 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.278 million tons, a 9.6% increase from December 30 [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate has generally recovered moderately. On January 9, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 2; the capacity utilization rate was 86.1%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from January 2. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills decreased by 3.7 percentage points [5][16]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On January 8, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 58.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from January 1; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 65.9%, a 2.4 - percentage - point decrease from January 1 [5][18]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to decline. On January 8, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 90.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 1, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 57.9%, a 1.7 - percentage - point decrease from January 8 [5][18]. Demand - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has weakened month - on - month. From January 1 - 13, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 152,000 square meters, a 44.9% decrease from the same period in December, a 41.8% decrease from January of last year, and a 40.8% decrease from January 2024 [5][23]. - The retail growth of the auto market is weak. In January, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year [5][26]. - Steel prices are oscillating strongly. On January 13, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by +0.6%, +1.3%, - 0.3%, and +0.1% respectively compared to January 6 [5][33]. - Cement prices have hit a new low. On January 13, the national cement price index decreased by 1.1% compared to January 6. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, performing slightly better than the national average [5][34]. - The rebound strength of glass prices has increased. On January 13, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,119 yuan/ton, an 0.8% increase from January 6 [5][39]. - The container shipping freight rate index has shown a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase. On January 9, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% compared to December 26, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.5% [5][43]. Group 2: Inflation CPI - The rebound strength of pork prices is weakening. On January 13, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.0 yuan/kg, a 0.3% increase from January 6. Since January, the average wholesale price of pork has increased by 2.0% month - on - month [5][47]. - The agricultural product price index has declined moderately. On January 13, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.9% compared to January 6. Since January, the index has increased by 4.0% year - on - year but decreased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][52]. PPI - Oil prices have reached the highest level since October. On January 13, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 68.8 and 61.2 dollars/barrel respectively, an 8.4% and 7.0% increase from January 6 [5][55]. - Copper and aluminum prices have continued to rise. On January 13, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.1% and 2.3% respectively compared to January 6. Since January, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum have increased by 10.4% and 7.0% month - on - month respectively [5][59]. - The domestic commodity index has changed from a decline to an increase month - on - month. On January 13, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 1.2% compared to January 6, while the CRB index decreased by 1.5% [5][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is not recommended to enter the market for EC2602 as its current valuation is neutral and it may be affected by rush shipments [2]. - For EC2604, attention should be paid to the actual inspection and shipment situation. In the short - term, the upward sentiment may be strong, but the actual scale of rush shipments may be limited. It is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of rush shipments and consider shorting opportunities [2]. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for the far - month contracts. Due to significant geopolitical disturbances in the far - month contracts, it is generally recommended to focus on shorting the EC2610 contract on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1748.0 with a 1.05% increase; EC2604 at 1280.8 with an 11.91% increase; EC2606 at 1485.1 with a 4.16% increase; EC2608 at 1565.2; EC2610 at 1154.0 with a 4.70% increase [2]. - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of EC2602 decreased by 4359 to 13344; that of EC2604 increased by 8071 to 37092; EC2606 increased by 431 to 2936; EC2608 increased by 236 to 1451; EC2610 increased by 566 to 7228 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of EC2602 is 208.4; EC2604 is 675.6; EC2606 is 471.3; EC2608 is 391.2; EC2610 is 802.4 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2502 - 2604 decreased by 118.1 day - on - day and 181.7 week - on - week; the spread of EC2504 - 2606 increased by 77.0 day - on - day and decreased by 11.1 week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Spot Index Data - **SCHIS (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Monday, as of 2026/1/12, it was 1956.39 points, with an 8.94% increase from the previous period and a 3.05% increase in the previous period [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Friday, as of 2026/1/9, it was 1719 dollars/TEU, with a 1.72% increase from the previous available data [2]. 3.3 European Line Spot Situation - **Week 2**: MSK's price remained flat at 2500 dollars, and the price in Hamburg was 2600 dollars (+100). PA had some price drops, while OA raised prices. The central price was 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market [3]. - **Week 3**: MSK increased the price by 100 dollars when opening the cabin. Other alliances had small price drops. PA was at 2600 dollars (YML's one route was 2400 dollars), and PA's price range was 2800 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market [3]. - **Week 4**: MSK increased the price by 100 dollars when opening the cabin, and most other shipping companies had not adjusted prices for the time being [3]. 3.4 Related News - On January 13, it was reported that from January 11 - 12, Maersk's Denver vessel successfully passed through the Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea. Maersk will continue to gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [4]. - On January 13, Trump announced that starting from that day, any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff on all its commercial activities with the United States [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - MSK's week 4 price still rose by $100, and the spot price was stronger than expected (similar to the 08 contract). It is expected that the 02 contract will operate strongly [2]. - The 04 contract is expected to operate strongly in the near - term due to position transfer and basis convergence. It is still recommended to wait for opportunities to short the 04 contract on rallies [2]. - The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors and are difficult to have an independent market in the short - term. Under the long - term logic of resuming navigation and off - season, the main strategy for the 10 contract is to go short on rallies (as the 10 contract has the lowest price and is most likely to be pulled up by funds in case of geopolitical reversal news) [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - **Yesterday's Closing Price and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2602, FC2604, EC2606, FC2608, and EC2610 were 1872.7, 1223.8, 1417.0, 1533.2, and 1105.3 respectively, with changes of 0.95%, 2.15%, 2.02%, 2.06%, and 2.10% [2]. - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of EC2602 decreased by 1050 to 24996, while that of FC2604 increased by 1301 to 23930, EC2606 increased by 125 to 2326, and EC2610 increased by 129 to 6184 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 were 648.9 and - 193.2 respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 8.6 and - 2.2 [2]. Index Data - **Scale Index**: The scale index (European line) was 3387.69 on January 6, 2025 (updated weekly on Mondays), down 3.59% from the previous period [2]. - **SCH Index**: The SCH index (European line) was $1690/TEU on December 26, 2025 (updated weekly on Fridays), up 10.24% from the previous period [2]. European Line Spot Situation - **Week 2**: MSK's price remained flat at $2500, but the opening price at Hamburg Port was $2600 (+100). Some PA prices decreased, while OA prices increased. The central price was $2860, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market [2]. News - Some shipping companies issued price increase letters in mid - January. On January 1, MSC announced price increases for 20GP and 40GP containers on the European line to $2400 and $4000 respectively in the second half of January [2]. - MSK's opening price for week 3 was $2600, a $100 increase compared to the previous week. The opening price for week 4 was $2700, also a $100 increase from week 3 [2]. Geopolitical News - On January 1, the Israeli military chief of staff said they would continue to disarm Hamas. - On January 6, the Israeli Defense Forces started to strike Hezbollah and Hamas targets in Lebanon due to cease - fire violations. - On January 7, Iran warned that it might launch pre - emptive strikes if it perceived an imminent threat to its security [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the futures market has changed little. For the 02 contract, its price mainly depends on the spot market and enters the delivery logic, making it difficult to predict the future price decline rhythm. It is not recommended to enter the market at the current price level [3]. - The valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high, but there is short - term upward risk. The strategy is to go short on rallies [3]. - The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Based on the long - term logic of resuming navigation and the off - season, the 10 contract should be shorted on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Futures Contract Data - **EC Contracts**: The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 are 1855.5, 1198.0, 1389.0, 1502.3, and 1082.6 respectively, with daily increases of 3.01%, 2.74%, 1.54%, 0.15%, and 2.13% [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 are 657.5 and - 191.0 respectively, with day - on - day changes of 22.2 and 10.9, and week - on - week changes of - 12.2 and - 29.6 [2]. Spot Index Data - **SCHIS (European Line)**: On January 6, 2025, it was 3387.69 points, a decrease of 3.59% from the previous period [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: On December 26, 2025, it was 1690 dollars/TEU, an increase of 10.24% from the previous period [2]. European Line Spot Situation - **Week 2**: MSK's price remained flat at 2500 dollars, but the opening price at Hamburg Port was 2600 dollars (+100). Some PA routes saw price cuts, while OA routes had price increases. The central price was 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market [4]. - **Price Increase Notices**: Some shipping companies issued price increase notices for the second half of January. For example, on January 1, MSC announced price increases for 20GP and 40GP containers on the European line to 2400/4000 dollars respectively [4]. - **MSK's Week 3 Opening Price**: It was 2600 dollars, and the price at Hamburg was 2700 dollars (+100) [4]. Geopolitical News - On December 31, 2025, the Israeli military chief of staff stated that the Israeli army would continue to disarm Hamas [4]. - On January 5, 2026, the Israeli army warned residents in southern Lebanon to evacuate as it planned to attack Hamas and Hezbollah military facilities [4].