MSK对week4开舱2700美金,环比+100。 相关新闻 1/1 以军总参谋长:将继续推进解除哈马斯武装行动。 1/6 以色列国防军：鉴于持续违反停火协议，以色列国防军开始打击黎巴嫩境内的真主党和哈马斯目标。 【等十期祭01月06日00时当】 1/7 伊朗警告：可能对敌人进行先发制人的打击。伊朗国防委员会答告称，如果伊朗认为自身安全面临迫在眉睫的威胁，该国可能对敌人进行先 发制人的打击。该委员会成立于2025年与以色列开战之后，旨在领导伊朗的防御战略。在一份声明中，该委员会警告说： "伊朗的安全、独立和 领土完整是不可逾越的红线，任何侵略或持续的敌对行为都将遭到相称、果断和坚决的回应。 集运早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/1/7 | | | हिले | | 昨日收盘价 | 深度 | 基美 | 昨日成交母 | | 昨日持仓屋 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1872.7 | 0.95 ...

week2：MSK平开2500美金，但汉堡港开舱2600（+100）；PA部分跌价，OA涨价。中枢2860美金，折盘约2000点. 1月下部分船司发布涨价函。 (1月1日，MSC发布1月下半月涨价函，欧线的20GP和40GP箱子分别宣涨至2400/4000美元) MSK对week3开舱2600美金,汉堡2700 (+100)。 消息面 相关新闻 1/1 以军总参课长：将继续推进解除哈马斯武装行动。当地时间2025年12月31日，以色列国防军发布通告，表示以军总参谋长扎米尔当天在加沙 地带南部进行视察，并就以军近期行动及未来安全形势发表讲话。扎米尔表示，以军将继续推进解除巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）武装的 行动。以军在解除哈马斯武装这一问题上有着充分的决心，不允许其重新建立力量。 1/6 以军向黎巴嫩南部多地居民发布撤离警告。当地时间1月5日，以色列国防军向黎巴嫩南部4个村庄居民发布紧急撤离警告，称将分别打击巴勒 斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）与黎巴嫩真主党相关军事墓础设施。以军阿拉伯语发言人阿德拉伊发表声明，呼吁黎南部安南与曼纳拉两村居民 立即懒离，称以军即将打击该地区的哈马斯军事墓础设施。另据以军发布的单 ...

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਉਨ੍ਹੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持合变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1795.1 | -1.53% | -52.5 | 24777 | | 27855 | -2582 | | | EC2604 | | 1160.2 | -0.83% | 582.4 | 7238 | | 21241 | 44 | | | EC2606 | | 1370.0 | -0.29% | 372.6 | 856 | | 2230 | - 1249 | | | EC2608 | | 1500.1 | 0.16% | 242.5 | 86 | | 1196 | -10 | | | EC2610 | | 1056.0 | 0.12% | 686.6 | 643 | | 6084 | 72 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环 ...

02后面主要看现货走势，1月运价见项高度与时间、后续跌价等节奏很难预估，当前点位下不建议入场 04估值中性偏高，但短期存在上行风险（资金移仓、地缘反转、节前减仓、跌无可跌后的涨价函），思路以逢高空为主。 远月受地缘影响大；在复航预期、淡季的长期逻辑下，10逢高空思路为主。 欧线视്വ്വീഷ Week52: MSK开舱2300,其余公司目前沿用week51为主。中枢2500美金,折盘面约1750点 Week1: MSK开舱2500美金, OA2700-2800 (EMC部分航线2500+)，PA2800 (集量2600)，。中枢1950美金, 折盘约1950点, 消息面 Week2：MSK平开2500美金，但汉堡港2600（环比+100）。 | | EC2512 | | 1613.0 | 0.31% | -23.8 | 82 | | 1675 | -39 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | | 1824.5 | 1.38% | -235.3 | 26553 | | 31849 | -24 ...

经济增长：集运运价指数连续两周上涨 生产：电厂日耗弱于往年同期 通货膨胀：农产品超季节性涨价 CPI：农产品价格指数大幅高于近年同期 风险提示 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样，恐与现实情况有些许出入。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 (1) 电厂日耗弱于往年同期。12 月 23 日，6 大发电集团的平均日耗为 80.0 万吨，较 12 月 16 日的 79.9 万吨上升 0.1%。 12 月 19 日，南方八省电厂日耗为 201.2 万吨，较 12 月 12 日的 201.8 万吨下降 0.3%。 (2) 高炉开工率以回落为主。12 月 19 日，全国高炉开工率 78.5%，较 12 月 12 日下降 0.2 个百分点；产能利用率 84.9%， 较 12 月 12 日下降 1.0 个百分点。12 月 19 日，唐山钢厂高炉开工率 92.7%，较 12 月 12 日上升 0.9 个百分点。 (3) 轮胎开工率窄幅波动。12 月 18 日，汽车全钢胎（用于卡车）开工率 64.1%，较 12 月 11 日上升 0.1 个百分点； 汽车半钢胎（用于轿车）开工率 71.4%，较 12 月 11 日下降 0.2 个百分点 ...

集运早报 远月受地缘影响大，做空淡季合约比做旺季合约更安全，整体以正套思路对待，以及关注10做空机会。 欧线现货情况: 消息面 Week52: MSK开舱2300 (环比-100)，其余公司目前沿用week51为主。中枢2500美金, 折盘面约1750点。 所有船司喊涨1月舱位。 Week1: MSK开舱2500美金(环比+200)，等待其余船司开舱。 Week2: MSK平开为主,报2500美金(高箱2600)。 相关新闻 12/23 苏伊士运河管理局：法国达飞海运Jacques Saadé号和Adonis号于周二通过了运河。 (一艘为返程船, 已发过声明; 另一艘为地线, 有先 例) | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਲੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓虽 | 持仓变动 -66 | | | EC2512 | | 1606.0 | -1.53% | -16.8 | 281 | | 18 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Economic growth shows cost reduction and widespread decline in steel prices, with production - related indicators such as power plant daily consumption, blast furnace operation rate, tire operation rate, and loom operation rate showing different trends; demand - side data for real estate, automobiles, steel, cement, glass, and shipping also vary [1][4]. - Inflation is characterized by the agricultural product price index being higher than in recent years, with different price trends for various agricultural products; PPI shows weak oil prices, and different trends for copper and aluminum prices [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Cost Reduction and Widespread Decline in Steel Prices 1.1 Production: Seasonal Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption - **1.1.1 Production End: Seasonal Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption** - On December 9, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 79.7 tons, a 2.3% increase from December 2; on December 2, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 190.8 tons, a 3.9% increase from November 25. Heating demand in the north boosts power consumption, but demand in non - power industries has limited growth [4][12]. - **1.1.2 Production End: Overall Decline in Blast Furnace Operation Rate** - On December 5, the national blast furnace operation rate was 80.1%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from November 28; the capacity utilization rate was 87.1%, also a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease. However, the blast furnace operation rate of Tangshan steel mills increased by 2.4 percentage points. Heavy - pollution response measures and weakening demand in the off - season led to the decline [4][17]. - **1.1.3 Production End: Slight Recovery in Tire Operation Rate** - On December 4, the operation rate of all - steel truck tires was 63.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from November 27; the operation rate of semi - steel car tires was 70.9%, a 1.7 - percentage - point increase. The loom operation rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region continued to decline [4][20]. 1.2 Demand: Cost Reduction and Widespread Decline in Steel Prices - **1.2.1 Demand End: Improved Monthly - on - Monthly New Home Sales in 30 Cities** - From December 1 - 9, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 256,000 square meters, a 42.0% increase from November, but a decline compared to the same period in previous years. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all decreased year - on - year [4][25]. - **1.2.2 Demand End: Weak Growth in Automobile Retail Sales** - In December, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year. The low growth was due to high sales in December last year and the weakening impact of the trade - in policy [4][29]. - **1.2.3 Demand End: Widespread Decline in Steel Prices** - On December 9, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 2.4%, 2.1%, 2.7%, and 0.5% respectively compared to December 2. Steel inventory reduction accelerated [4][34]. - **1.2.4 Demand End: Moderate Increase in Cement Prices** - On December 9, the national cement price index increased by 0.4% compared to December 2, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions performing better. However, price increases were difficult to implement due to high inventory in some areas. The year - on - year decline in cement prices narrowed [4][35]. - **1.2.5 Demand End: Glass Prices Reached a New Low in the Second Half of the Year** - On December 9, the active glass futures contract price was 985 yuan/ton, a 5.2% decrease from December 2. Weak demand and high inventory were the main reasons [4][40]. - **1.2.6 Demand End: Container Shipping Freight Index Turned Down Again** - On December 5, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% and the SCFI index decreased by 0.4% compared to November 28. Weak market demand and expanding container ship capacity dragged down freight rates [4][44]. 2. Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years 2.1 CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years - **2.1.1 Pork Prices Rose and Then Fell** - On December 9, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.6 yuan/kg, a 0.1% decrease from December 2. The pressure came from the concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. The month - on - month decline widened [4][49]. - **2.1.2 Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years** - On December 9, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.1% compared to December 2. Different agricultural products had different price trends. The year - on - year and month - on - month increases in the agricultural product price index were 6.0% and 2.4% respectively [4][55]. 2.2 PPI: Weak Oil Prices - **2.2.1 Oil Prices Weakened** - On December 9, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $62.8 and $58.3 per barrel respectively, a 2.2% and 0.7% decrease from December 2. Oversupply expectations and weakening geopolitical support led to the decline [4][58]. - **2.2.2 Copper Prices Rose and Aluminum Prices Fell** - On December 9, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.0% and decreased by 0.7% respectively compared to December 2. The domestic commodity index showed different trends in month - on - month changes [4][63]. - **2.2.3 Most Industrial Product Prices Declined Month - on - Month** - Since December, most industrial product prices declined month - on - month, with coking coal and coke having the largest declines. The year - on - year decline in most industrial product prices narrowed, except for cold - rolled sheet and glass [4][65].

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货12月8日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2512 | 1,658.4 | 1,647.9 | 1,669.8 | 1,660.5 | 11.4 | 0.69 | 330 | 3394 | -106 | | EC2602 | 1,614.1 | 1,600.0 | 1,615.3 | 1,601.0 | 1.2 | 0.07 | 19294 | 31466 | -749 | | EC2604 | 1,098.8 | 1,080.0 | 1,077.7 | 1,077.8 | -21.1 | -1.92 | 3125 | 19613 | 263 | | EC2606 | 1,260.8 | 1,252.5 | 1,217.3 | 1,227.3 ...

南华期货集运产业周报 ——挺价预期主导市场波动，期价阶段性修复 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 联系邮箱：songjipeng@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心因素及策略建议 1.1 核心因素 上周scfi综合指数小幅回落，最新录得1397.63点（-0.39%）。其中，欧洲航线录得1400（-0.28%），美西航 线录得1550（-5.02%），美东航线2315（-4.65%）。 即期运价方面，上周四马士基发布涨价函，12.29日起至鹿特丹宣涨到3500USD/FEU。从Week52的线上报价 来看，Gemini联盟均价为3700USD/FEU，MSC为2665USD/FEU，Premier联盟2835.00USD/FEU，海洋联 盟3182.22USD/FEU。统计样本内的均值为3100.52USD/FEU。马士基宣涨的最终落地情况如何，目前也是 市场关注的焦点。运力规模上看，12月周均运力在29~30wTEU之间，并不算低。 交易上，上周02合约周度反弹9.4%。主要受到前一周现货降价以及红海复航预期等因素而导致的超跌 ...

格隆汇12月4日｜浙商证券研报指出，集运运价持续承压，中远海控多举措提升货运量。2025年三季度 公司集运货运量为690万TEU，同比增长4.91%；分航线来看，除跨太平洋航线受中美关税战影响同比 下降4.24%，其余航线货运量均实现同比增长。未来，随着中美双方达成协议、美国关税政策呈现缓和 态势，美线航线及相关航线贸易将有望得到恢复。公司码头业务稳健增长，积极回购稳定信心，维 持"增持"评级。 ...