Week48整体均值2200美金 (折盘1540点左右) Week49线下GEMIN[和PA联盟报价在2300-2500之间，OA在2300-2600，均值约2400美金（折盘1650点左右） 周一，OOCL调降至2530，CMA调降至2645美金, HPL降价到2300，OOCL降到2300。 周 马士基对week50开舱2200美金 集运星报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 台的 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 募 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1650.0 | -7 229% | -10.6 | 6884 | | 6454 | -408 | | | EC2602 | | 1453.5 | -7.34% | 185.9 | 51412 | | 48279 | 4946 | | | EC2604 | | 1126.4 | -1 -37% | 513.0 | 5004 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 如何看待回落后的散运？ ——交运周专题 2025W47 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期，干散运标的股价在一波上涨后迅速回调，我们认为前期上涨主要 301 法案落地影响，而 近期回落主要受福建板块情绪降温所致。虽然短期股价下行，但由于所处行业景气修复上行， 明年供给温和有限的背景下，需求三大催化因素 1）西芒杜投产改变铁矿石海运结构，2）美联 储降息释放大宗商品需求，3）俄乌战后重建和雅下水电建设拉涨大宗散货需求，提供行业上行 空间，行业中公司盈利有望随之改善。而从估值角度，当前船台紧张，新船价格维持高位，二 手船价随市场景气反弹，重置成本对估值有较强支撑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：船务资讯） 2025年前三季度，阳明海运累计实现营业收入新台币1262.6亿元（约40.5亿美元），同比减少25.4%； 毛利为新台币222.9亿元（约7.2亿美元），同比下降63.7%；营业利润为新台币155.3亿元（约5.0亿美 元），同比下降71.4%；税前净利为新台币213.4亿元（约6.8亿美元），同比下降66.8%；净利润为新台 币150.0亿元（约4.8亿美元），同比下降71.1%；归属于母公司股东的净利润为新台币148.1亿元（约4.8 亿美元），同比下降71.3%，基本每股盈利为4.24新台币。 公司指出，与2024年同期相比，运价下跌是导致盈利能力减弱的主要原因。尽管整体利润出现下滑，阳 明海运前三季度的营业利润率仍维持在12.3%。在全球贸易政策不确定性延续、地缘政治风险上升的背 景下，公司通过维持班期稳定与提升运营效率，努力支撑业务稳健运行。 单看第三季度，阳明海运实现营业收入新台币420.9亿元（约13.5亿美元），同比下降42.2%，但环比增 长8.9%；营业利润为新台币44.1亿元（约1.4亿美元），同比下降86.3%，营业利润率为10.5%；第三季 度净 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the futures market showed slight fluctuations. The EC2512 contract decreased slightly due to the expected price drop in November, while the spreads of EC2512 - EC2602 and EC2602 - EC2604 strengthened. The valuation of EC2512 is neutral, and considering the upcoming peak season and the long - term contract signing period in December, a strategy of reducing long positions is recommended. The valuation of EC2602 is harder to determine and is expected to follow the trend of EC2512 in the short term. If the peak season is realized, EC2602 may have more upside potential. The EC2604 contract is for the off - season, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach considering the expected greater supply pressure in April [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and price changes of multiple EC futures contracts are presented. For example, EC2512 closed at 1778.2 with a - 1.87% change, EC2602 at 1604.9 with a 0.81% change, etc. [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months are given, such as EC2512 - EC2504 was 612.1, showing a - 35.3 change from the previous day and - 30.8 from the previous week [2]. Spot Indexes - **SCFIS**: Updated weekly, as of 2025/11/10, it was 1504.80 points, with a 24.50% increase from the previous period and a - 7.92% change in the previous period [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, as of 2025/11/7, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, with a - 1.56% change from the previous period and a 7.87% change in the previous period [2]. - **CCFI**: Updated every Friday, as of 2025/11/7, it was 1366.85 points, with a 3.25% change from the previous period and a 2.37% change in the previous period [2]. - **NCFI**: Updated every Friday, as of 2025/11/7, it was 911.73 points, with a - 5.58% change from the previous period and a 17.43% change in the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotations - **45th Week**: The average landed price was about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk) [2]. - **46th Week**: The average landed price was 2000 US dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the disk) [2]. - **Second Half of November**: The pressure is expected to increase, and the cargo volume may recover. The quoted price is between 2365 - 2950 US dollars, but MSK opened at 2250 US dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period), and other shipping companies are expected to lower their quotes this week. There may also be a price increase announcement for December [2]. News - **Gaza Cease - fire**: As of November 10, the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas was in its second month, but the second - stage negotiation was still "far off". The implementation of the agreement was full of setbacks, and there were concerns that the cease - fire might be terminated [3]. - **Shipping Policy**: Starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China will suspend the implementation of relevant policies on charging special port fees for US ships for one year in synchronization with the US suspension of the final measures of the 301 investigation on China's maritime logistics and shipbuilding industries [3]. - **Index Delay**: The XSI - C index will be delayed by three working days for release [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry [3] Core Insights - The transportation industry is experiencing a recovery, with various segments showing potential for growth, particularly in shipping, infrastructure, aviation, and express delivery [7][19][22][20] Shipping - The shipping sector is seeing mixed price movements, with the SCFI for the US East route down 17.2% and the Southeast Asia route up 6.4% [11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the price increases in container shipping and the potential recovery in oil tanker rates due to improved US-China trade relations [16][12] Infrastructure - Key metrics indicate a decline in truck traffic and railway cargo, while port throughput has increased significantly, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [17][18] - The report emphasizes the potential for dividend stocks in the infrastructure sector, particularly in ports, which are currently undervalued [19] Aviation - The aviation sector shows a positive trend with a 7.2% year-on-year increase in passenger volume, driven by improved demand and a low base effect [22] - The report suggests that the industry is poised for profitability in 2026, with a focus on valuation recovery and potential investment opportunities in major airlines [22] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is benefiting from a reduction in price competition, with a notable increase in business volume and revenue [20] - The report indicates that the "anti-involution" policies are helping to stabilize prices and improve profitability in the sector [20] Logistics - The logistics segment is experiencing stable performance, with cross-border air freight prices showing a week-on-week increase [23] - The report notes the importance of monitoring the daily traffic at key ports and the implications for logistics operations [23]

Report Summary of Shipping Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Information Shipping Market Information - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, a 7.9% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1267.15 points, a 14.4% increase from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index on October 31 was 1100.32 points, a 12.60% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 965.62 points, a 17.43% increase; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1452.82 points, a 12.30% increase [2]. - On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, a 147.24 - point increase from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1344 USD/TEU, a 7.87% increase; the SCFI US - West route was 2647 USD/FEU, a 22.94% increase. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1021.39 points, a 2.9% increase; the CCFI for the European route was 1323.81 points, a 2.4% increase; the CCFI for the US - West route was 772.67 points, a 4.9% increase [2]. Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - CMA was the first to announce a freight rate increase for the second half of November, which boosted bullish sentiment to some extent. The afternoon sentiment gradually warmed up, and the market quickly rose [3]. - The US and China have a series of tariff adjustments. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures [5]. Trading Data - On November 4, the main contract 2512 closed at 1909.9, with a decline of 3.82%, a trading volume of 29,700 lots, and an open interest of 30,900 lots, an increase of 1595 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers who were recommended to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 (with a profit margin of over 300 points) can consider partial profit - taking. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It was recommended to take profits when the contracts rose, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating overall stable production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises [2]. - The US October S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. - The price limits for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 financial results, showing mixed performance across different segments, with oil transportation and bulk shipping showing positive trends, while the overall net profit declined slightly year-on-year. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters reached 19.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with Q3 revenue at 6.73 billion, up 10.9% year-on-year but down 3.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 3.30 billion, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, with Q3 net profit at 1.18 billion, up 34.7% year-on-year but down 6.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Non-recurring gains and losses in Q3 amounted to approximately 180 million, primarily due to the increase in fair value of listed company shares and the acquisition of a stake in Antong Holdings announced in July [1] Oil Transportation - Q3 oil transportation revenue was estimated at 2.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, with net profit at 600 million, up 55.1% year-on-year but down 25.9% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The increase in oil tanker rates is attributed to active cargo demand from the Atlantic, OPEC+ production increases, and sanctions affecting oil supply, leading to a significant rise in rates [2] - The company’s VLCC fleet achieved TCE rates exceeding market averages, with Q4 spot operations expected to see a substantial increase [2] Bulk Shipping - Q3 bulk shipping revenue was 2.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with net profit at 290 million, down 21.1% year-on-year but up 11% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The increase in demand for bulk shipping is driven by extended grain shipments from South America and increased soybean procurement by China [3] - The BDI index averaged 1978 points in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35% [3] Mid-term Outlook - The mid-term outlook for bulk shipping is positive, with supply growth slowing and moderate demand growth expected [4] - The company anticipates steady growth in earnings from container shipping and LNG transportation, while roll-on/roll-off shipping has seen a decline [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 6.03 billion, 7.56 billion, and 8.58 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 10, and 9 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall improvement in industrial production, with specific sectors showing varying performance, particularly in steel and construction industries [1][11][21]. Industrial Production Tracking - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 84.7%, remaining stable year-on-year [1][4]. - Apparent steel consumption rose by 2% week-on-week, with a narrowing year-on-year decline of 3.8 percentage points to -0.1% [1][6]. - Social inventory continued to decline, down 2.3% week-on-week [1]. Sector Performance - The petrochemical and consumer sectors showed improvement, with soda ash operating rates stable at 84.9%, and a year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.2% [11]. - PTA operating rates increased by 0.4% to 76.0%, with a year-on-year improvement of 1.3 percentage points to -4.8% [11][14]. - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate improved by 1% to 73.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point to -5.7% [11]. Construction Industry Insights - Cement production and demand were below last year's levels, with the nationwide grinding operating rate increasing by 1.6% week-on-week to 45.4% [21]. - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 44.8%, with a year-on-year decline of 9.3% [21][24]. - Cement inventory ratio slightly increased, up 1.2% week-on-week, but down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to 0.7% [21]. Demand Tracking - National commodity housing transactions decreased, primarily due to significant declines in second-tier cities, with a daily average transaction area down 5.7% week-on-week [40]. - National road freight volume increased year-on-year, with rail freight volume up 1.8 percentage points to 1.5% [44]. - Passenger car retail sales decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7% to 25.4% [59]. Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally fell, with vegetable prices rising by 4.3% week-on-week, while fruit, pork, and egg prices declined [74]. - Industrial product prices showed an overall upward trend, with the South China industrial product price index rising by 0.4% week-on-week [82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The travel chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, with ticket prices showing a positive trend and a clear inflection point in revenue [2][5] - The shipping sector is witnessing a seasonal surge in freight rates due to peak season and geopolitical factors [6] - The logistics sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices for major express delivery companies, with a second round of price hikes initiated [6] Summary by Sections Aviation - Demand recovery is evident, with business travel gradually increasing since September, leading to improved revenue margins. The industry is expected to benefit from a tightening supply side and lower fuel costs, resulting in a resonance of income and costs [5][17] - The introduction of new aircraft is expected to remain slow in 2025, with engine maintenance squeezing capacity. The industry is projected to reach historical highs in capacity utilization [5][17] Shipping - Oil shipping rates are on the rise, with the average VLCC-TCE increasing by 8.7% to $86,000 per day. Geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases are expected to support the oil shipping market [6][22] - The SCFI index for foreign trade shipping has risen by 12.9% to 1,310 points, driven by increased demand and tariff adjustments [6][22] - The BDI index for bulk shipping has increased by 6.9% to 2,069 points, supported by stable overseas mining shipments [6][22] Logistics - The express delivery sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices, with a second round of price hikes underway. The overall performance of the sector is expected to improve in Q4 and next year [6][36] - The average daily collection volume for postal express services has decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating seasonal effects and price adjustments [6][36]

Core Viewpoint - China has initiated reciprocal measures against the U.S. 301 investigation to promote corrections from the U.S. and the exemption clauses are expected to help maintain the competitiveness of China's shipbuilding industry [1][2] Group 1: Reciprocal Measures - China will impose special port fees on U.S.-owned, operated, or built vessels docking at Chinese ports starting October 14, 2025, with a fee of 400 RMB per net ton, which is higher than the U.S. fee of 50 USD per net ton [2] - The reciprocal measures aim to maintain a fair competitive environment in international shipping and shipbuilding, countering the discriminatory practices of the U.S. [2] Group 2: Impact on Shipping Industry - The increase in non-industry costs on the U.S. routes may not lead to significant industry-wide cost increases, as companies may adjust their operations to mitigate impacts [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Transport has initiated an impact investigation, which may lead to compensatory measures to alleviate pressure on Chinese shipping companies [3] Group 3: Effects on Oil and Bulk Shipping - The reciprocal measures will extend to oil and bulk shipping, potentially leading to a reduction in effective capacity and increased freight rates [4] - Approximately 15% of oil tankers and 4% of bulk carriers are owned or operated by U.S. listed companies, which may face significant operational costs due to the new fees [4] - The expected increase in oil transportation rates is projected to be higher than market expectations, driven by the supply-demand dynamics and the ongoing rigidity in tanker supply [4]