二、散运：西芒杜项目如期投产，有望推动市场继续复苏 智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，2026年航运行业投资逻辑仍将沿着供需缺口方向展开，即供 给增速低位、需求有望迎来边际变化的板块，1)油运：全球原油增产周期、制裁改善贸易结构、油轮供 给约束三大因素具备可持续性，有望共同推动合规市场景气继续向上。2)散运：供给端与油运具备相似 的低增特征，需求端西芒杜铁矿投产、降息背景构成核心催化，市场有望继续复苏。3)集运：集运干线 市场需综合考虑增量供给、红海复航、及国际贸易摩擦等不确定性因素。亚洲区域内集运市场供需仍然 紧张，即期及期租市场均保持较高景气。 华创证券主要观点如下： 一、油运：增产+制裁+供给约束，驱动合规市场景气向上 25年下半年以来油运行业景气度进一步提升，8月VLCC运价淡季提前反弹，之后运价表现强劲，TD3C 航线11月13日录得12.6万美元/天，11月平均运价达10.4万美元/天，25Q4平均运价8.8万美元/天，即单日 值、月均值、季均值都超过了2022年以来的最高值。 该行看好此轮油运景气周期持续性：1)全球原油增产周期提振运输需求，25年4月开始OPEC+转向增产 周期，并在9月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a significant increase in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) charter rates since November, with one-year charter rates surpassing the highest levels seen since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment in the oil transportation market [1] Group 1: VLCC Market Dynamics - According to Clarksons, VLCC charter rates for 1-3 year terms have rapidly increased, indicating a consensus among shipowners and charterers about a sustained upward cycle in the oil transportation market [1] - The supply side of VLCC remains tight, with a high proportion of older vessels and new supply primarily aimed at replacing these older ships [1] - The demand side is bolstered by ongoing sanctions from Europe and the U.S. against Russian and Iranian crude oil exports, leading to increased compliance market demand [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The domestic crude oil import demand and potential inventory replenishment needs are expected to be released, contributing to a positive outlook for the VLCC market over the next 2-3 years [1] - Recent increases in oil production from the Middle East and South America, along with intensified U.S. sanctions on Russia, have led India to reduce its imports of Russian oil in favor of Middle Eastern and Gulf imports, benefiting compliant VLCC operations [1] - The VLCC-TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) rate for the Middle East to China route has recently surged to over $120,000, setting a new record, and is expected to lead to the highest profitability for crude carriers in a decade by Q4 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a bullish outlook for the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) market over the next 2-3 years, driven by rising rental rates and tight supply conditions [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - VLCC rental rates for 1-3 year terms have surged since November, with 1-year rates surpassing the highest levels seen since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [1]. - The supply side remains tight, with a high proportion of older VLCCs and new supply primarily aimed at replacing these older vessels [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Increased compliance market demand is anticipated due to ongoing sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude oil exports from Europe and the U.S. [1]. - Domestic crude oil import demand and potential inventory replenishment needs are expected to be released, further supporting the market [1]. Group 3: Regional Developments - Recent production increases in the Middle East and South America have positively impacted the market, while U.S. sanctions on Russia have led India to reduce imports of Russian oil in favor of Middle Eastern and Gulf sources [1]. - The sentiment among shipowners is optimistic, with VLCC-TCE rates on the Middle East to China route recently reaching over $120,000, marking a new high [1]. Group 4: Future Projections - The forecast for Q4 2025 indicates that profits for crude carriers are expected to reach a ten-year high [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 financial results, showing mixed performance across different segments, with oil transportation and bulk shipping showing positive trends, while the overall net profit declined slightly year-on-year. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters reached 19.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with Q3 revenue at 6.73 billion, up 10.9% year-on-year but down 3.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 3.30 billion, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, with Q3 net profit at 1.18 billion, up 34.7% year-on-year but down 6.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Non-recurring gains and losses in Q3 amounted to approximately 180 million, primarily due to the increase in fair value of listed company shares and the acquisition of a stake in Antong Holdings announced in July [1] Oil Transportation - Q3 oil transportation revenue was estimated at 2.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, with net profit at 600 million, up 55.1% year-on-year but down 25.9% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The increase in oil tanker rates is attributed to active cargo demand from the Atlantic, OPEC+ production increases, and sanctions affecting oil supply, leading to a significant rise in rates [2] - The company’s VLCC fleet achieved TCE rates exceeding market averages, with Q4 spot operations expected to see a substantial increase [2] Bulk Shipping - Q3 bulk shipping revenue was 2.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with net profit at 290 million, down 21.1% year-on-year but up 11% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The increase in demand for bulk shipping is driven by extended grain shipments from South America and increased soybean procurement by China [3] - The BDI index averaged 1978 points in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35% [3] Mid-term Outlook - The mid-term outlook for bulk shipping is positive, with supply growth slowing and moderate demand growth expected [4] - The company anticipates steady growth in earnings from container shipping and LNG transportation, while roll-on/roll-off shipping has seen a decline [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 6.03 billion, 7.56 billion, and 8.58 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 10, and 9 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The recent private placement will optimize the fleet, with the company issuing 694 million shares at a price of 11.52 yuan per share, raising a total of 8 billion yuan [2][13]. - The funds raised will be primarily used for existing new ship orders, including 6 VLCCs, 2 LNG carriers, and 3 Aframax tankers, enhancing the company's competitive position in the oil transportation market [13]. - The controlling shareholder subscribed for 50% of the new shares, indicating confidence in the company's prospects [13]. - The oil transportation market is expected to experience a favorable environment due to limited supply and seasonal demand, with several catalysts anticipated in the fourth quarter [13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 477,078 million shares, with a current share price of 12.52 yuan [9]. - The company’s net asset value per share is 7.69 yuan, with a 12-month high of 13.80 yuan and a low of 9.74 yuan [9]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 5.31 billion, 6.18 billion, and 6.45 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.2, 9.7, and 9.3 times [13]. - The total revenue is expected to grow from 23.24 billion yuan in 2024 to 26.02 billion yuan in 2027 [19]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the supply of VLCCs is limited, with near-zero growth in nominal capacity, and the aging fleet will continue to restrict supply [13]. - Factors such as increased global trade barriers and OPEC+ production policies are expected to positively impact oil transportation demand [13].