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圆通速递(600233):上半年兼顾量利平衡,看好下半年业绩弹性
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 18.823 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.84%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.974 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.76% [7] - The company experienced a significant increase in business volume, with a total of 14.863 billion parcels handled in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.79% [7] - Cost optimization has been substantial, with core costs per parcel decreasing to 0.59 yuan, down 0.07 yuan year-on-year, indicating effective management and investment in technology [7] - The profit forecast has been raised due to expected price increases in the express delivery sector, with net profits projected at 4.255 billion yuan for 2025, 5.069 billion yuan for 2026, and 5.990 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting growth rates of 6.0%, 19.1%, and 18.2% respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 78.009 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.0% [6] - The company's gross profit margin is projected to be 8.5% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.1% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.24 yuan for 2025, increasing to 1.75 yuan by 2027 [6]