1月9日，多晶硅期货多个合约延续了日前的走势继续走跌。截至今日收盘，主力2605合约报51300元/ 吨，收跌8.11%。同期，国内多晶硅领军企业的股价亦大幅下挫，通威股份（600438.SH）收跌3.83%， 大全能源（688303.SH）收跌6.10%，协鑫科技（03800.HK）收跌7.02%。 此前，在光伏"反内卷"的推动下，多晶硅的产量和市场价格表现均有不俗的进展。 记者查阅中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会（下称"硅业分会"）过往数据，2025年，多晶硅产量同比减少 28.4%。当前（截至2026年1月7日）硅料的现货价格较半年前（2025年6月底）的历史低位已回调超 70%。 此外，受三重因素影响，2026年伊始的多晶硅价格延续了涨势。据硅业分会7日分析，第一，硅料端开 工率持续下调，导致多晶硅单位产品综合成本上升，基于售价覆盖成本的定价机制，企业调价意愿较 强；第二，下游硅片、电池片环节价格陆续上调，提升了对硅料价格上涨的接受度；第三，组件端在现 有订单支撑下，对上游价格的传导表现出一定容忍度，支撑了采购意愿。 不过，供需失衡的基本面仍未改变，目前市场供应的收缩速度慢于需求的下滑速度。记者了解到，目 ...

据"工信微报"表述，我国动力和储能电池产业发展迅速，在全球范围内取得阶段性竞争优势。但受多种 因素影响，行业内存在盲目建设情况，出现低价竞争等非理性竞争行为，扰乱正常市场秩序，削弱行业 可持续发展能力，必须予以规范治理。 据"工信微报"官微今日消息，工业和信息化部（下称"工信部"）、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局和国 家能源局日前联合召开动力和储能电池行业座谈会，研究部署进一步规范动力和储能电池产业竞争秩序 工作。 汤雁称，尽管受下游市场增长带动，磷酸铁锂材料的需求大增，头部企业订单已排至2026年，产能满 产，但磷酸铁锂材料成本压力仍未根本缓解。 为遏制行业恶性低价竞争，中国化学与物理电源行业协会发布《磷酸铁锂材料行业成本研究》并要求会 员企业不得突破成本红线开展低价销售，建议各公司谨慎扩产。 行业非理性竞争的结果是，在2025年大规模集采/框采中，储能系统频频报出接近成本线的价格。据中 关村储能产业技术联盟数据，以4小时储能系统（额定功率下能持续放电4小时的储能设施）集采/框采 价格为例，其均价为421.52元/kWh，中标最低价为370.00元/kWh，跌破400元/kWh，创历史新低。 业内企业家疾呼， ...

中信建投证券研报指出，2025年以来，受到低迷的产品价格影响，合盛硅业盈利有所下滑。但一方面目 前公司主要产品价格都在底部，可以说价格继续下行的空间已经不大。另一方面，25年下半年以来，在 有机硅、多晶硅行业均已经看到了"反内卷"相关政策或举措的落地。综合而言，认为行业景气度将逐步 回暖，带动公司盈利的逐步回升。公司作为硅行业龙头，仍然有充分投资价值。目前产业链景气度仍然 低迷，但反内卷之下，行业反转的曙光已现，后续可预期公司聚焦在优势的工业硅、有机硅业务，且盈 利随着行业转暖不断改善，债务问题也有望在进一步的盈利回升、股权融资之下得到有效缓解。维持对 公司的"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Signs of increased consumer sentiment are observed, with Shanghai Disneyland's congestion index rising by 9.1% week-on-week and 75.7% year-on-year, indicating improved tourism demand due to the implementation of autumn holidays in various regions [7][9] - Movie box office revenue for the week of December 8-14 reached 717 million yuan, reflecting a 48.5% week-on-week decline but an 87.7% year-on-year increase, suggesting a strong year-on-year performance despite a seasonal drop [7] - The real estate market continues to experience low sales, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities down by 33.9% year-on-year, and second-hand housing transactions in key cities also declining by 34.6% [10][11] Group 2: Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry remains in a high-growth phase, driven by AI infrastructure investments, with DRAM memory prices for DDR4 and DDR5 averaging $50.1 and $26.2 respectively, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.8% for DDR4 [21][23] - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak demand, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices reporting a week-on-week decline of 0.6% and 1.8% respectively, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [26][27] - Manufacturing activity is showing signs of improvement, with the operating rate for semi-steel and full-steel tires increasing by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively, although recruitment intentions among companies are slightly declining [37] Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have seen a significant decline, with the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port dropping by 5.1% week-on-week, attributed to stable supply and lack of unexpected demand [43][44] - Industrial metal prices are fluctuating at high levels, with copper and aluminum prices on the SHFE at 94,100 and 22,200 yuan per ton respectively, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.4% for copper [45][46] Group 4: Logistics and Mobility - Passenger transport demand has decreased seasonally, with the subway passenger volume in major cities down by 1.4% week-on-week, while the Baidu migration index fell by 4.2% [52][55] - Freight logistics demand is also declining, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume down by 2.0% and 0.3% respectively, although express delivery volumes have shown slight recovery [56][59]

21世纪经济报道记者陈蕾 职业教育行业迎来结构性变局。作为公考培训领域两大领军企业，华图教育与粉笔公考已正式达成战略融合。 12月15日，华图山鼎设计股份有限公司（300492.SZ）与粉笔有限公司（2469.HK）共同宣布，双方已达成深度战略合作，两家分别深耕于线 下与线上公职培训的领军企业正式携手，通过资本与业务的双重纽带，实现全方位资源整合与战略协同。 双方宣布，将在股权层面进行合作，包括但不限于战略投资或控股、互相参股、共同成立合资公司等措施，同时双方将相互派驻董事，搭建常 态化沟通桥梁。 在此前的业务竞争中，华图和粉笔都在各自擅长的领域给大学生提供从备考到求职、就业的完整商业闭环。华图山鼎董事长吴正杲表示："此 次合作不仅停留在投资合作和公司治理层面，我们也将对各自渠道进行整合，利用各自渠道优势，通过线上与线下的无缝融合，以产业端人才 需求和就业端评价反馈为指引，全链条优化培养供给、就业指导、求职招聘、帮扶援助、监测评价等服务，开发更多有利于发挥所学所长的就 业岗位，完善供需对接机制，力求做到人岗相适、用人所长、人尽其才，提升就业质量和稳定性。" "此外，华图和粉笔作为行业里两家AI技术应用领先企业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in shipping and logistics sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery and growth potential in the shipping market, with specific attention to the rise in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) charter rates and the overall shipping market dynamics [6]. - It identifies key investment opportunities in companies such as China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and others, while also suggesting a focus on high-dividend stocks in the transportation sector [6][22]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - VLCC one-year charter rates have increased to $58,000 per day, indicating a strong market demand [6]. - The report notes a 6% week-on-week decline in VLCC rates, averaging $115,290 per day, but anticipates potential increases in the coming weeks due to expected cargo volume growth [6]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 6.5% to 2,727 points, with Capesize rates reaching a two-year high [6]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant opportunity for airlines due to the aging aircraft fleet and increasing passenger demand, predicting a "golden era" for the airline industry [6]. - Recommended stocks include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage operational efficiencies and rising demand [6]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with potential for profit recovery and industry consolidation [6]. - Companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted as having strong growth potential, particularly in Southeast Asia [6]. Road and Rail Transportation - The report indicates resilience in railway freight volumes and highway truck traffic, with a slight increase in railway cargo to 82.12 million tons, up 0.74% week-on-week [6]. - The highway sector is expected to benefit from high dividend yields and potential market value management catalysts [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Views - The beef price is expected to continue rising, indicating a potential reversal in the beef cycle in 2025 [2][3]. - The pig industry is undergoing a "de-involution," which is likely to support long-term pig prices [1][3]. - The poultry sector is anticipated to benefit from seasonal demand recovery, with limited supply fluctuations [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report highlights a steady increase in beef prices, with the average market price at 66.54 yuan/kg as of November 28, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.24% and a year-on-year increase of 8.83% [2][3]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 11.19 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 4% [1][3]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The report notes that the pig price is supported by industry adjustments, with a current price of 11.19 yuan/kg [1][3]. - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.83 yuan/kg, down 0.45% week-on-week and down 24.13% year-on-year [1][3]. 2.2 Poultry - The price of broiler chickens is 7.19 yuan/kg, up 0.56% week-on-week, while chick prices are slightly down at 3.47 yuan/each [1][3]. - The report indicates that the supply of yellow chickens remains stable, with prices showing slight increases [1][3]. 2.3 Beef - The beef market is experiencing a new round of price increases, with expectations for a bullish cycle in 2025 [2][3]. - The average price of raw milk is 3.03 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year decrease of 3% [2][3]. 2.4 Feed - The report emphasizes that the feed industry is benefiting from deeper industrialization and clearer division of labor, with leading companies expected to gain competitive advantages [3][4]. 2.5 Other Commodities - Soybean meal prices are stable, with a current price of 3100 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.98% [2][3]. - Corn prices are also on a mild upward trend, currently at 2254 yuan/ton, up 1.21% week-on-week [2][3]. 3. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Agriculture are rated as "Outperform" with respective prices of 4.36 yuan and 1.34 yuan [4]. - Mu Yuan Co. is highlighted with a projected EPS of 3.57 yuan for 2025, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - The cement sector is expected to turn profitable in Q3 2025 due to a decline in production costs and a slight recovery in prices, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate market and limited infrastructure support [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, infrastructure investment is projected to maintain growth, supporting demand for building materials [1] - The supply-demand imbalance in the cement industry is easing, although demand is still expected to decline due to the real estate sector not stabilizing and limited infrastructure activity [1] - The industry's awareness of "anti-involution" is increasing, and with a positive start, a slight recovery in average cement prices is anticipated, leading to some degree of profit recovery [1] Group 2: ETF and Index Information - The building materials ETF (159745) tracks the construction materials index (931009), which includes securities from companies involved in the manufacturing and sales of cement, glass, ceramics, and other building materials [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of publicly listed companies in the building materials sector and is significantly influenced by the real estate and infrastructure industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - Controlling incremental growth is the key to long-term improvement in the industry, while reducing existing capacity focuses on addressing current contradictions [1][2] Group 1: Industry Improvement Strategies - The "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry" emphasizes scientific regulation of major project construction, strict control of new refining capacity, and reasonable determination of new capacity scale and deployment rhythm for ethylene and paraxylene [1] - The industry is experiencing a high operating rate without significant overcapacity, with various petrochemical products expected to see an average capacity growth rate exceeding 10% per year from 2019 to 2025 [2] - The industry is likely to transition from localized improvements to a comprehensive recovery, with a significant decline in the production growth rate of most petrochemical products expected by 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - In 2026, the new capacity for PX is expected to fall short of expectations, while geopolitical factors and refinery disruptions are driving up the price differential for overseas refined oil, potentially enhancing profitability for refining [3] - The PTA and polyester filament sectors are making positive progress in reducing excess capacity, with future new capacity growth expected to be low and increasing maintenance activities [3] - The high barriers to entry in the petrochemical industry are expected to further solidify the industry's competitive moat as new capacity growth declines from 2027 to 2028 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that ZTO Express has shown positive performance in Q3 2025, with revenue and adjusted net profit growth, and the company is expected to continue improving in Q4 2025 [1][2] - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express achieved operating revenue of 11.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - The company’s business volume reached 9.573 billion pieces in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, indicating a continuation of growth momentum [1] Group 2 - The express delivery industry is experiencing a downward trend in growth rates, with significant differentiation among companies; ZTO Express is expected to regain market share and profit amid this industry restructuring [1] - In October 2025, the express delivery industry saw a year-on-year business volume growth of 7.9%, with varying growth rates among companies: YTO (+12.8%) > Shentong (7.39%) > Yunda (-5.11%) [1] - The company’s long-term efficiency improvements and industry optimization are expected to enhance its market share and profitability, supported by a solid asset base and scale barriers [1] Group 3 - The company has raised its profit forecast for ZTO Express, expecting adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 9.540 billion, 10.149 billion, and 11.399 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -6%, 6%, and 12% [2] - The price of express delivery services has increased nationally, contributing to the improvement in business volume and profits for the company [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with projected PE ratios of 12x, 11x, and 10x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]