数据真实性崩塌

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数据信仰崩塌,美国经济成“皇帝的新衣”?
财富FORTUNE· 2025-08-06 13:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting economic situations in the US and China, highlighting the credibility crisis of US economic data and the strategic measures China is taking to combat deflation and stimulate consumption [2][4][6]. Group 1: US Economic Situation - The US labor statistics have been significantly revised downwards, with May and June's job additions cut by 258,000, marking the largest downward revision since 1968 during non-recession periods [4]. - The market's reaction to the employment data was atypical, with a drop in stock prices despite increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, indicating a crisis of trust in the data's authenticity [4][5]. - The US economy is facing a potential increase in federal deficit by $4.1 trillion from 2025 to 2034 due to tax cuts, with the debt-to-GDP ratio projected to rise from 117% to 130% [5]. Group 2: China's Economic Measures - China is implementing systemic measures to combat deflation, including anti-involution policies and direct financial incentives for childbirth, aiming to stimulate consumption [6][7]. - The national child-rearing subsidy is set at 3,600 yuan per child per year, with an estimated total expenditure exceeding 100 billion yuan annually, targeting young families to boost consumer spending [7]. - The revised Price Law aims to address "involution" in competitive practices, helping to stabilize profit margins for businesses and potentially enhancing stock market performance [7][8]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis of US and China - The 2025 Fortune Global 500 list shows a stark contrast in profitability, with US companies averaging $9.7 billion in profit compared to $4.2 billion for Chinese companies, indicating a significant competitive gap [2][9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of productivity as the ultimate determinant in the ongoing economic competition between the US and China, with the US leading in AI and China dominating in electric vehicle batteries and solar components [10][11].