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估值周观察(5月第3期):“大盘基准”估值持续修复
Guoxin Securities· 2025-05-18 11:00
Global Market Overview - In the week from May 12 to May 16, 2025, overseas markets saw a broad increase, with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 indices rising by 7.15% and 5.27% respectively, while the S&P 500, Russell 1000, and Russell 3000 indices all gained over 5%[2][9] - The valuation levels in the US stock market expanded in an orderly manner alongside the index increases, while the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 2.09% but saw a PE contraction of 0.53x[2][9] A-share Market Insights - A-share core broad-based valuations experienced moderate expansion, while small-cap valuations significantly declined. The CSI 1000 and National 2000 indices saw valuation reductions of 1.24x and 0.39x respectively[2][30] - As of May 16, 2025, major A-share indices' PE, PB, and PS ratios were positioned between the 50%-95% percentiles for the past year, with PCF ratios in the 80%-90% range, indicating a further rise in valuation percentiles[2][31] Sector Performance - Most primary sectors recorded gains, with consumer discretionary and large financials leading the way. The largest increases were seen in beauty care (3.08%), non-bank financials (2.49%), and banks (1.43%)[2][51] - Valuation changes varied across sectors, with beauty care and automotive sectors expanding by 1.19x and 0.64x respectively, while the computer and defense sectors contracted by 0.99x and 0.97x[2][51] Valuation Comparisons - The consumer staples sector showed superior valuation attractiveness, with food and beverage sectors having three- and five-year average valuation percentiles of only 17.45% and 10.49% respectively, indicating potential for valuation recovery[2][2] - Emerging industries displayed mixed performance, with biotechnology leading gains, while the digital economy sectors, including cloud computing and semiconductors, faced declines of 2.24%, 1.58%, and 1.67% respectively[2][2] Risk Considerations - Key risks include uncertainties surrounding overseas monetary policy and the potential for rapid valuation increases in certain sectors, particularly textiles and beauty care, which currently have one-year valuation percentiles exceeding 96%[2][2]