本周三大指数，上证指数涨0.84%，深证成指涨1.11%，创业板指跌0.34%。后市将如何发展？看看机构 怎么说。 申万宏源策略：A股春季行情仍沿着既定路径前进 短期，市场集中挖掘低位方向。周期Alpha（有色、化工）向周期拐点扩散（建材、石油、钢铁），成 为市场挖掘低位方向的重点。周期Alpha 行情与行业ETF 规模扩张的共振效应明显，成为了产业趋势主 题后的强动量方向。但需要注意的是，现阶段有色、化工和石油的赚钱效应都已接近高位。顺周期行情 短期阻力正在逐步增加。 中长期展望，继续强调两个上行阶段的风格特征是一脉相承的：2025 年强结构行情是周期Alpha 和AI 算力领涨的行情，第二阶段的上涨，周期Alpha 仍有机会，顺周期投资的延伸可能是先进制造和出海链 困境反转。而AI 产业链行情可能逐步向应用端过渡。所以，中长期仍看好景气科技和周期Alpha。景气 科技关注：海外算力链、AI 应用（AI 应用产业趋势兑现阶段，港股互联网可能重新成为领涨方向，港 股好于A 股的特征也可能回归）、半导体、储能、机器人、商业航天等。周期Alpha 关注：有色金属和 基础化工。 国泰海通：风险偏好持续上行 建议超配 ...

其一，将中线仓位均衡分布在景气度较高、股价相对合理的"两电化非机"板块中（两电=电子+电新， 化=化工，非=非银，机=机械），可适当搭配位置较低、前期走势"进二退一"的传媒、计算机标的；其 二，选择 "普涨轮动"格局中占优的中证500、中证1000、国证2000，作为相对收益来源。此外，港股在 本轮上涨中涨幅相对较少，若有合适的回撤买入机会，亦可加强关注。 本周（2026-01-19 至2026-01-23）行情概况（1）主要指数：市场有所"降温"，主要宽基指数表现分化。 （2）板块观察：落后板块竞相补涨，金融走弱通信拐头。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比下降，股指期 货合约普遍升水（4）资金流向：两融余额环比下降，有色ETF 净流入最多。（5）量化"黑科技"：主要 指数估值水平有所抬升。 本周行情归因 （1）2025 年中国GDP 超140 万亿元，同比增长5.0%。（2）央行下调再贷款及再贴现利率0.25%。 （3）证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引》。 下周行情展望 来源：浙商证券股份有限公司 本周市场有所"降温"，主要宽基指数表现分化。展望后市，权重指数上证50、沪深300 已跌破20 日均 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that since mid-January, the market's growth rate has slowed due to policy cooling signals, outflows of counter-cyclical funds, and a deceleration in the inflow of leveraged funds. The turnover rate of the entire A-share market peaked at 3.78% on January 14, followed by a decline from that high [2][8] - Historical instances of high turnover rates during bull markets have shown two patterns: style switching, where leading sectors weaken, and style diffusion, where strong sectors continue to perform well and expand into other thriving sectors. The report suggests that if the previous leading sectors were based on themes or policy speculation, they are likely to revert to stronger industrial trends after a high turnover rate [2][8] - The report identifies sectors with strong industrial trends and performance certainty, such as AI computing power, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals, as likely to maintain strong performance post-high turnover. Conversely, sectors driven mainly by thematic catalysts without clear fundamental improvements may face challenges [2][8] Market Changes - The report notes that since late December 2025, the spring market has accelerated due to the resolution of overseas liquidity disturbances and the influx of configuration funds, particularly in industries like AI and commercial aerospace. However, the sustainability of previously strong-performing sectors such as media, military industry, non-ferrous metals, and computers is questioned as the market enters the latter half of the spring rally [8][29] - The report highlights that the leading sectors during previous high turnover periods have included financials, consumer goods, and technology, with shifts observed in 2007, 2009, 2014, 2020, and 2025. For instance, in 2007, the leading sectors shifted from real estate and consumer to financials and resources, while in 2020, the focus moved from consumption to cyclical and new energy sectors [2][8][12] Sector Analysis - The report emphasizes that sectors such as non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, and AI computing power are expected to continue their strong performance due to their solid industrial trends and earnings realization. Additionally, sectors benefiting from price increases, such as basic chemicals and new energy materials, are also highlighted as having potential for improvement [2][8][34] - The report suggests that the financial sector, particularly non-bank financials, is likely to show increasing elasticity as the market conditions improve. The potential for significant inflows from long-term funds, such as insurance and mutual funds, is also noted as a positive factor for the financial sector [34][36] - The report indicates that the consumer sector may see investment opportunities primarily in new consumption models and high-dividend attributes, particularly in service consumption areas that could benefit from policy catalysts and base effect reversals [34][36]

光大证券认为春节前市场将会保持震荡，难以保持稳定的趋势，这主要与春节之前投资者交易热度有所 下行，以及微观流动性短期趋紧有关。从历史情况来看，春节前20个交易日，主要指数上涨概率不足 50%。预计春节之后市场将会迎来新一轮上行动力，春节后20个交易日主要指数上行概率与平均涨幅均 较高。因此建议投资者近期以稳为主，但仍应持股过节。行业方面，关注电子、电力设备、有色金属 等。若1月市场风格为成长，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为电子、电力设备、通信、有色金 属、汽车、国防军工；若1月份市场风格为防御，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为非银金融、 电子、有色金属、电力设备、汽车、交通运输等。两种风格假设下，得分靠前行业具有一定的相似性。 主题方面，可继续关注商业航天。 ...

Q4 基金动向：增配 AI 基建与价值股 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 2025Q4 基金持仓分析 本报告导读： 2025Q4 主动基金大幅减仓 A 股和港股，增配方向在周期与金融等价值股，有色/非 银是加仓共识，科技内部分化，AI 硬件基建被增配，TMT/医药/军工被减仓。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | | 021-38038662 | | | zhangyifei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080008 | | | 陶前陈(研究助理) | | | 0755-23976164 | | | taoqianchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125070014 | [Table_Report] ...

Core Insights - The market has shown signs of "cooling down," with major broad indices exhibiting divergence. The weight indices, such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300, have fallen below the 20-day moving average, entering a phase of consolidation, while most growth indices remain above the 20-day line, indicating continued upward potential [1][4][54] - The current market state is characterized by "strong small caps and weak large caps," with weight indices in a consolidation phase and growth indices remaining active. This trend is expected to persist in the short term, while the overall nature of a "systematic slow bull" remains unchanged for the quarter [1][4][54] Market Overview - The market experienced a "cooling down" period from January 19 to January 23, 2026, with a noticeable decline in trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83%, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 fell by 1.54% and 0.62%, respectively, both breaking below the 20-day moving average. In contrast, growth indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 saw increases of 4.34%, 2.89%, and 3.33%, respectively, continuing to reach new highs in this bull market [2][12][53] - Sector performance showed that 24 out of 31 primary industries rose, with cyclical sectors like construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, steel, and real estate experiencing significant gains of 9.23%, 7.71%, 7.31%, and 5.21%, respectively. Meanwhile, the financial sector weakened, with banks and non-banking financials declining by 2.70% and 1.45% [15][53] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous week. The main futures contracts showed a premium, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [21][27] - The latest margin trading balance was 2.69 trillion yuan, down by 0.24% from the previous week. In terms of ETFs, the most significant inflow was seen in the non-ferrous metals sector, while the coal sector experienced the largest outflow [27][32] Valuation Insights - The dynamic valuation model indicates that the valuation levels of major indices have increased. As of January 23, 2026, the PE-TTM for the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.1, at the 97.03 percentile, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 33.31, at the 87.97 percentile. The ChiNext Index had a PE-TTM of 42.98, at the 35.39 percentile [44][45] Strategic Recommendations - Based on the assessment of "market cooling, index divergence, and the dominance of growth," it is recommended to maintain medium-term positions without fear of short-term fluctuations and to participate in the upcoming market momentum. Short-term positions should be cautious of volatility and avoid chasing highs [5][55] - The strategy includes balancing medium-term positions across sectors with high economic prospects and relatively reasonable stock prices, particularly in the "two electric and non-mechanical" sectors (electronics, new energy, chemicals, non-banking, and machinery). Additionally, consider the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 indices for relative returns [5][55]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown signs of "cooling," with major indices displaying divergence, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 fell by 1.54% and 0.62%, respectively, both breaking below the 20-day moving average[12] - Growth indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 have performed better, rising by 4.34%, 2.89%, and 3.33%, respectively, continuing to reach new highs in this bull market[12] Sector Performance - Among the 31 sectors, 24 saw gains while 7 experienced declines, indicating a trend of lagging sectors catching up, with cyclical industries like construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate rising by 9.23%, 7.71%, and 5.21% respectively[15] - The financial sector weakened, with banks and non-bank financials declining by 2.70% and 1.45% respectively, while the previously strong communication sector showed signs of reversal, dropping by 2.12%[15] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline in market activity[22] - The margin trading balance fell by 0.24% to 2.69 trillion yuan, with the most significant net inflow seen in the non-ferrous ETF, amounting to 19.5 billion yuan[27] Economic Indicators - China's GDP for 2025 exceeded 140 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with industrial output increasing by 5.9% and service sector growth at 5.4%[49] - The People's Bank of China lowered the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25%, with new rates set at 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for different terms[49] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a balanced mid-term portfolio in sectors with high economic activity and reasonable valuations, particularly in the "two electricity, chemical, non-bank, and machinery" sectors, while also considering lower-positioned media and computer stocks[53] - Investors are advised to focus on the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 for relative returns, especially in a "broad-based rally" scenario[53]

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券联席首席金工分析师 陈原文 SAC: S0260517080003 chenyuanwen@gf.com.cn 联系人：广发证券金工高级研究员 林涛 SAC: S0260124060060 gflintao@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 （如无特别说明，本文数据均来源于wind，数据截至2026/01/23） 2025年业绩预告整体统计： 截至目前最新的统计结果显示，2025年年报业绩预告累计披露率约为13.1%，累计业绩积极率（业绩预告类型预增、略增、续盈、 扭亏为积极，下同）约为40.3%。在已披露业绩预告的717家公司中，业绩预增公司共有180家，占比25.1%；业绩略增公司共45家，占比6.3%；业绩扭亏公司 共58家，占比8.1%；业绩续盈公司共6家，占比0.8%；业绩预减、首亏、续亏、略减和不确定的公司共428家，占比59.7%。 | 业绩预告类型 | 公司数量 | 卡比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 不确定 | 5 | 0.7% | | ...

"从宏观角度看，市场资金在追求短期收益与长期战略配置之间寻求平衡，对行业发展前景与政策环境的综合 考量导致了资金流向的调整。"受访人士向21世纪经济报道记者指出。 公募主动权益基金第一大重仓股有了"新面孔"。 机构最新统计数据显示，截至2025年4季度末，中际旭创代替宁德时代成为主动权益基金（包括主动股票基 金、偏股混合基金、灵活配置基金）第一大重仓股。 截至1月23日收盘，中际旭创股价报585元，总市值6500亿元。 同时，主动权益基金第二大至第十大重仓股排序均较上一季度发生变化，如新易盛取代腾讯控股成为基金第二 大重仓股，紫金矿业从第八大重仓股晋级为第五大重仓股，寒武纪-U升为第七大重仓股；而宁德时代、腾讯控 股分别退为第三、第四大重仓股，中芯国际退出了前十大重仓股队列。 另外，主动权益基金在行业配置层面也有调整。据机构统计，2025年4季度，主动权益基金增配较多的行业包 括有色金属、通信、非银、化工、机械；主要减配了电子、医药生物、传媒、计算机、电力设备等行业。 重仓股排序更迭 截至2026年1月22日，公募基金2025年第4季度报告基本披露完毕，主动权益基金前十大重仓股名单随之更新。 从持股绝对市值来 ...

作者 丨易妍君 截至2026年1月22日，公募基金2025年第4季度报告基本披露完毕，主动权益基金前十大重仓 股名单随之更新。 从持股绝对市值来看，据国信证券经济研究所金融工程组统计， 截至2025年4季度末，主动权 益基金持有市值排名前十的个股依次是：中际旭创、新易盛、宁德时代、腾讯控股、紫金矿 业、阿里巴巴-W、寒武纪-U、立讯精密、贵州茅台、东山精密。 编辑丨张星 公募主动权益基金第一大重仓股有了"新面孔"。 机构最新统计数据显示，截至2025年4季度末， 中际旭创代替宁德时代成为主动权益基金（包 括主动股票基金、偏股混合基金、灵活配置基金）第一大重仓股。 截至1月23日收盘，中际旭创 股价 报585 元，总市值6500亿元。 同时，主动权益基金第二大至第十大重仓股排序均较上一季度发生变化，如新易盛取代腾讯控 股成为基金第二大重仓股，紫金矿业从第八大重仓股晋级为第五大重仓股，寒武纪-U升为第七 大重仓股；而宁德时代、腾讯控股分别退为第三、第四大重仓股，中芯国际退出了前十大重仓 股队列。 另外，主动权益基金在行业配置层面也有调整。据机构统计，2025年4季度，主动权益基金增 配较多的行业包括有色金属、通信 ...