Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the A-share market in 2026 will revolve around "structural transformation and confidence restoration," with a focus on technology investments and external demand recovery [3][4] - The report emphasizes a "systematic slow bull" market phase, suggesting a gradual upward trend in the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to oscillate between the high point of February 2021 and the 0.809 quantile of 5178-2440 [9] - Investment strategies include focusing on four main lines: consumer services, sectors with growth potential like automotive and pharmaceuticals, traditional industries, and dividend-paying stocks such as banks and transportation [9] Group 2 - Policy risks are highlighted, particularly the impact of new public fund regulations on asset allocation, which may lead to a reallocation of equity fund performance benchmarks in the second half of 2026 [10][12] - Geopolitical risks are identified, with potential impacts from U.S. actions in Venezuela and Japan's political stance affecting market sentiment and inflation expectations [13][14] - Other risks include the pace of U.S. interest rate cuts, domestic economic recovery, and the performance of U.S. tech stocks, all of which could influence market dynamics in the second half of 2026 [15][17][20]

2025年A股市场圆满收官，这一年注定成为资本市场发展史上的关键节点——指数跨越十年关口、市值突破百万亿、成交创下历史纪录，在政策 红利与资金活水的双重驱动下，市场呈现"稳中向好、结构分化"的鲜明特征。本系列将通过2025年A股再融资市场情况，包括再融资受理情况、 上会审核情况以及发行上市情况，对A股再融资市场进行全面剖析。 根据Wind数据统计，截至2025年12月31日，全年再融资（包括增发、配股、优先股及可转债，仅统计已发行的）规模达9508.65亿元，同比增长 326.17%。其中增发（包括公开增发及定向增发）8877.32亿元，贡献了绝大部分增量，同比增长412.99%；可转债631.33亿元，同比增长30.77%； 配股、优先股募资额均为0。 年内沪深北交易所共受理再融资251家次，审核通过181家次，报送证监会188家次，证监会注册173家次，终止（撤回）35家次。据统计，各上市 板块再融资过会率均为100%。 目前，仍有235家上市公司处于再融资排队状态。按审核状态，已受理11家、已问询108家、已审核通过11家、报送证监会37家、证监会注册62 家、中止审查6家。 2025年增发项目共172 ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | | 第二部分 2025 年行情复盘 | 3 | | | 一、股票市场——慢牛确立 | | 3 | | 二、股指期货——贴水继续扩大，成交持仓分化 | | 3 | | 第三部分 后市展望及投资策略 | 5 | | | 一、股指空间测算 | 5 | | | 二、股指期货基差展望 | 12 | | | 三、政策、资金和估值展望 | 14 | | | 三、后市策略 | 17 | | | 免责声明 | 18 | | 股指期货研发报告 股指期货年报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 震荡中寻找机会 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2025 年，A 股市场呈现震荡走高的慢牛走势。人工智能带动的 AI 产业 链、机器人、有色金属板块大幅上涨，使股指表现出不同的涨幅和节奏。股 指期货跟随现货上涨、成交持仓稳步增长的同时，在市场结构性分化的背景 下，贴水加大，品种间差异明显。 【市场展望】 科技强国的战略叠加人工智能浪潮，仍将是 A 股 2026 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - On December 30, the convertible bond industry showed mixed performance in terms of gains and losses, with valuations rising on a month - on - month basis [1]. - The mid - cap growth style was relatively dominant in the market [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose [2]. - The convertible bond valuations increased [2]. - In the A - share market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices declined, while in the convertible bond market, 14 industries rose [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.14% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index remained unchanged, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.63%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.06%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.04% [1]. - **Market Style**: Mid - cap growth was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth rose 0.57%, large - cap value fell 0.13%, mid - cap growth rose 0.81%, mid - cap value rose 0.66%, small - cap growth rose 0.66%, and small - cap value rose 0.34% [1]. - **Fund Performance**: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 75.057 billion yuan, a 2.96% month - on - month decrease; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A was 2.161532 trillion yuan, a 0.18% month - on - month increase; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23.828 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.02 bp to 1.86% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 134.53 yuan, a 0.09% month - on - month increase. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 202.44 yuan, a 1.47% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 118.85 yuan, a 0.18% decrease; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 129.71 yuan, a 0.01% increase [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 59.95%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase. The largest change in proportion occurred in the 120 - 130 (including 130) range, with a proportion of 28.01%, a 1.39 - percentage - point decrease. There were no bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 132.60 yuan, a 0.07% month - on - month decrease [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 33.54%, a 0.45 - percentage - point month - on - month increase; the overall weighted par value was 101.88 yuan, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease [2]. - The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 18.25%, a 1.38 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 86.78%, a 2.11 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 25.17%, a 0.42 - percentage - point increase [2]. Industry Performance - **Underlying Stock Market**: Among the A - share industries, the top three decliners were Commerce and Retail (-1.56%), Real Estate (-1.22%), and Utilities (-1.14%); the top three gainers were Petroleum and Petrochemical (+2.63%), Automobile (+1.35%), and Non - Ferrous Metals (+1.31%) [3]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Among the convertible bond industries, the top three gainers were Automobile (+2.08%), Petroleum and Petrochemical (+1.25%), and Textile and Apparel (+0.77%); the top three decliners were Environmental Protection (-2.57%), National Defense and Military Industry (-1.23%), and Building Materials (-1.16%) [3]. - **By Category**: - **Closing Price**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.38%, manufacturing increased by 0.54%, technology decreased by 0.24%, large - consumption increased by 0.10%, and large - finance decreased by 0.05% [3]. - **Conversion Premium Rate**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.21 percentage points, manufacturing increased by 0.57 percentage points, technology increased by 0.028 percentage points, large - consumption increased by 0.63 percentage points, and large - finance increased by 0.79 percentage points [3]. - **Conversion Value**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.74%, manufacturing increased by 0.17%, technology decreased by 0.36%, large - consumption decreased by 0.43%, and large - finance decreased by 0.20% [3]. - **Pure Bond Premium Rate**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.55 percentage points, manufacturing increased by 0.81 percentage points, technology decreased by 0.16 percentage points, large - consumption increased by 0.12 percentage points, and large - finance decreased by 0.065 percentage points [4]. Industry Rotation - Industries such as Petroleum and Petrochemical, Automobile, and Non - Ferrous Metals led the gains. For example, Petroleum and Petrochemical had a daily increase of 2.63% in the underlying stock market and 1.25% in the convertible bond market; Automobile had a 1.35% increase in the underlying stock market and 2.08% in the convertible bond market [54].

为系统呈现上市公司ESG实践进展，长江商报资本战略研究院以A股上市公司为研究对象，基于主流金 融终端与多层次市场披露数据，对上市公司ESG报告披露情况展开全面梳理分析，旨在向社会公众清晰 展现我国上市公司在可持续发展道路上的实践成效与社会价值。 据长江商报资本战略研究院统计，2019年至2024年，分别有1011家、1140家、1464家、1840家、2230 家、2529家A股上市公司披露ESG践行情况，五年间整体增长150%，披露率分别为26.82%、27.16%、 31.14%、35.99%、41.45%、46.53%，呈稳步提升态势。 长江商报消息 在"双碳"目标提出五周年之际，中国上市公司正以前所未有的深度与广度，将环境 （Environmental）、社会（Social）和治理（Governance）三大维度全面融入战略与实践。 五年来，ESG理念在中国资本市场经历了从概念普及到制度构建的快速演进。政策层面，证监会与交易 所持续完善披露指引；市场层面，投资者逐步将ESG绩效纳入决策体系；企业层面，行业龙头率先将 ESG提升至战略高度。 这一进程中，"双碳"目标不仅推动能源、制造等高碳行业通过技术创 ...

一、事件：年报预告 12月25日，上市公司2025年年报预约披露时间表出炉；科创板上市公司芯导科技拔得头筹，将于2026年2月3日披露年报；主板的首份年报将由*ST花王2 月13日率先披露。 根据招商证券梳理，从四季度中观景气数据来看，年报业绩有望改善或持续高增的领域预计主要集中在"涨价商品"、"新能源和高端制造业"、"出口景气 板块"、"需求旺盛或有改善的TMT板块"4大方面。 | 美别 | 申万一/二级行 | 25H1净利润累 | 2503净利润累 净利润增速% | | PE 重点关注的细分行业及原因 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | না | | 计同比增速% | 计同比增速% | (2025E) | (2025E) | | 有色金属 | | 26.21 | 32.36 | 52.40 | 24.63 钻、钨、锡、铜、贵金属等价格上涨 28.64 供给收缩和成本支撑己内酰胺、溴素、TDI、PTA等价格上涨 | | 化学制品 | | 5.62 | 10.17 | 32.07 | | | 深价商品 | 造纸 | -121.98 | -150.99 | -26 ...

今日各行业表现（截至下午13:57） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 石油石化 | 2.43 | 162.59 | 30.82 | 统一股份 | 10.01 | | 机械设备 | 1.38 | 1591.32 | 18.12 | 步科股份 | 20.00 | | 汽车 | 1.35 | 949.77 | 9.73 | 天铭科技 | 30.00 | | 有色金属 | 1.15 | 1100.73 | -11.66 | 云铝股份 | 5.50 | | 综合 | 1.15 | 30.02 | 8.53 | 南京新百 | 10.02 | | 传媒 | 0.86 | 440.83 | 47.32 | 百纳千成 | 19.94 | | 家用电器 | 0.84 | 301.87 | 20.45 | 三花智控 | 9.99 | | 电子 | 0.67 | 2786.31 | -1.83 | N强一 | 172.78 | | 基础化工 | 0.50 | 873.32 | ...

| 代码 | 最新融资余额（亿元） | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 1273.97 | 24.49 | 1.96 | | 国防军工 | 922.41 | 22.19 | 2.46 | | 电力设备 | 2281.31 | 19.54 | 0.86 | | 计算机 | 1762.24 | 10.63 | 0.61 | | 公用事业 | 525.28 | 9.60 | 1.86 | | 机械设备 | 1367.79 | 7.61 | 0.56 | | 基础化工 | 1007.41 | 6.13 | 0.61 | | 房地产 | 374.10 | 3.63 | 0.98 | | 家用电器 | 374.06 | 3.29 | 0.89 | | 食品饮料 | 513.51 | 2.30 | 0.45 | | 农林牧渔 | 305.42 | 1.13 | 0.37 | | 钢铁 | 161.53 | 1.02 | 0.63 | | 社会服务 | 127.59 | 0.89 | 0.70 | | 交通运输 | 418.35 | 0.85 ...

编者荐语： 转载自申万宏源上海分公司，仅供参考。行业方面：当前申万一级行业指数中食品饮料和非银金融的PE估值（TTM）低于近十年20%分位水平，PE （TTM）估值分别处于近十年10.99%和13.19%的分位水平，可作为重点关注。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者李金玲 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 数据速看： 1、巴菲特指标： 当前A股巴菲特指标为90.48%，处于相对较高区间，高于安全区间。 2、估值历史百分位水平： 宽基指数方面： 重点关注指数估值表现 1、重点关注指数PE估值水平 重点关注指数PE估值水平 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 中证500 15.58 · - ● 55.29 1 33.83 (↑3.56%) 科创50 35.26 · 35.26 · - 196.95 160.72 (↑5.55%) 中证1000 18.94 · - · 101.10 46.37 (↓ 0.57%) 半导体 - ▲ · 219.12 33 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and trends in the credit bond market, focusing on both primary and secondary markets, as well as financial analysis by industry [4][5][6]. Group 2 - In the primary market, as of December 26, 2025, there have been 15,700 credit bonds issued since the beginning of 2025, totaling 13.91 trillion yuan, with 7,440 industrial bonds amounting to 8.60 trillion yuan [4]. - The public utility sector leads in issuance with 1.95 trillion yuan from 1,060 bonds, followed by non-bank financials at 1.38 trillion yuan from 1,407 bonds, and transportation at 1.00 trillion yuan from 805 bonds [4]. - The secondary market has seen credit bond yields experience an M-shaped trend, with four distinct phases: rapid increase in yields until mid-March, a decline until early July, another increase until late September, and a fluctuating decline from October onwards [4]. Group 3 - In terms of financial performance, total revenue for industrial bond issuers reached 53.88 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 3.50% year-on-year, while net profit totaled 2.43 trillion yuan, also down 3.32% [5]. - The non-bank financial sector boasts a net profit margin exceeding 30%, significantly higher than other sectors, with environmental protection and public utilities also showing margins above 10% [5]. - By the end of Q3 2025, industries such as construction and real estate faced high debt pressure, with asset-liability ratios above 70%, while media and defense sectors maintained lower ratios below 50% [6]. Group 4 - The total interest-bearing debt across industrial bonds reached 86.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.58% year-on-year, with non-bank financials, public utilities, and social services having over 70% of their total liabilities as interest-bearing debt [6]. - Industries with strong short-term debt repayment capabilities include textiles, defense, media, and light manufacturing, with cash covering over 100% of short-term debts, while non-bank financials and steel sectors showed weaker capabilities with coverage below 50% [6]. - Operating cash flow for industrial bond issuers saw a net inflow increase of 18.40% year-on-year, with 12 industries, including comprehensive and real estate, reporting positive growth in net inflows [6].