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【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的1月经济:价格篇
郭磊宏观茶座· 2026-02-02 06:36
Group 1 - The Business Price Index (BPI) reached a one-year high in January, recording 956 points, a 6.3% increase compared to the end of December last year, driven by geopolitical tensions and commodity price fluctuations [1][5][4] - The geopolitical threat index rose by 66.3% month-on-month, marking the highest increase since March 2020, influenced by events in Greenland and the Middle East [1][5] - The energy index increased by 1.5% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous metals index surged by 21.7% [1][5] Group 2 - In January, domestic pricing for bulk commodities showed mixed results, with chemical products leading in price increases, recording a 4.8% rise month-on-month [9][4] - The South China Cement Index fell by 4.0% month-on-month, indicating a decline in cement prices [9][4] - The South China Comprehensive Index rose by 8.6% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [9][4] Group 3 - The photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) increased by 10.3% month-on-month, with battery and silicon prices leading the gains [2][13] - The lithium carbonate futures price rose by 27.6% month-on-month, while the DXI index for the DRAM memory industry increased by 25.8% [2][13] - The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium fell by 23.3% month-on-month [2][13] Group 4 - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 2.5% month-on-month, indicating stability in export shipping prices [14][14] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rebounded with a 14.4% increase month-on-month, after a previous decline [14][14] - The WCID container freight indices for Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to New York recorded changes of 2.6% and -3.4% respectively [14][14] Group 5 - The average wholesale price of pork in January increased by 5.8% month-on-month, while the prices of 28 key vegetables fell by 0.2% [19][18] - The average wholesale price of seven monitored fruits decreased by 0.1%, and the futures price of yellow corn fell by 0.9% [19][18] - The ICPI index, representing non-food prices, was recorded at 99.50, showing a slight decrease from December [21][21]