国家统计局2月11日发布数据显示，1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同 比上涨0.2%，环比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%。 转自：新华社 居民消费需求持续恢复，核心CPI保持温和上涨态势，环比上涨0.3%，为近6个月最高。 此外，节前重要民生商品量足价稳。食品价格环比持平，其中鲜菜价格下降4.8%，粮食和食用油价格 分别下降0.1%和0.2%，猪肉和禽肉类价格分别上涨1.2%和0.2%，水产品和鲜果价格均上涨2.0%。（记 者 王雨萧、何晓） 统计数据显示，食品价格同比下降0.7%，非食品价格上涨0.4%；消费品价格上涨0.3%，服务价格上涨 0.1%。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟介绍，CPI同比涨幅有所回落，主要有两方面原因：一是春节错月 影响。上年1月份为春节月份，食品和部分服务价格上涨较多，导致上年同期对比基数较高，带动本月 同比涨幅回落较多；二是国际油价变动导致能源价格降幅扩大。 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 1月生意社BPI升至一年来高位。本月格陵兰岛、中东等地缘事件频发，全球地缘政治威胁指数月均值 环比上行66.3%，避险情绪与地缘溢价推动大宗商品价格；月末受风险偏好回摆影响，贵金属价格高位巨 震。截至1月30日，生意社BPI指数录得956点，相较去年12月末环比回升6.3%。其中能源、有色指数（月 环比）分别为1.5%、21.7%。 第二， 1月内盘定价大宗商品涨跌互现，化工品价格涨幅靠前。就分项而言，环渤海动力煤现货、螺纹、焦 煤、玻璃期货价月环比分别录得1.2%、-2.2%、0.1%、3.0%；化工 产品 指数稳中有升，月环比录得 4.8%；水泥价格有所回落，月环比录得-4.0%。南华综合指数（期末值）环比收涨8.6%，月均值同比录得 8.8%（前值3.0%）。 第三， 上海、深圳二手房价回温，北京、广州房价降幅收窄。截至1月26日（最新数据），北上广深四大一 线城市二手房挂牌价格指数环比录得-0.5%、1.1%、-1.0%、0.4%。 第四， 存储芯片、碳酸锂等新兴制造业价格偏强，光伏行业综合指数 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Beijing for December showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, reversing the previous month's decline, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [1] Group 1: Month-on-Month Changes - The CPI changed from a decrease of 0.2% in November to an increase of 0.3% in December [1] - Food prices increased by 1.3%, contributing approximately 0.18 percentage points to the CPI increase [1] - Non-food prices shifted from a decrease of 0.4% to an increase of 0.1%, contributing about 0.12 percentage points to the CPI [1] Group 2: Year-on-Year Changes - The year-on-year CPI increased by 1.0%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.4 percentage points [1] - Food prices rose by 3.1%, with a significant increase of 2.0 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing around 0.43 percentage points to the CPI [1] - Specific food items saw notable price changes: fresh vegetables and fruits increased by 28.4% and 4.8% respectively, while pork and eggs decreased by 14.8% and 12.4% respectively [1] Group 3: Non-Food Price Changes - Non-food prices increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer price index (CPI) in Guangdong remained stable year-on-year in December 2025, with a slight month-on-month decrease, indicating a mixed trend in consumer prices [1] Group 1: CPI Overview - In December, Guangdong's CPI increased by 0.4% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month [1] - The month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.1%, but the decline was narrower by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 2: Food Prices - Food prices in Guangdong shifted from a 0.3% increase in the previous month to a stable position in December [1] - Prices for fresh vegetables and marine fish increased, while prices for pork, other livestock products, eggs, and milk powder decreased [1] Group 3: Industrial Consumer Goods - The prices of industrial consumer goods rose by 0.5% [1] - Significant year-on-year price increases were observed in precious metal items, with platinum jewelry up by 95.3%, gold jewelry by 70.3%, and silver jewelry by 19.2% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that in December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Guangdong residents increased by 0.4% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month [1] - Food prices changed from a 0.3% increase in the previous month to flat, with fresh vegetables and seawater fish prices rising, while prices for pork, other livestock products, eggs, and milk powder decreased [1] - The price of industrial consumer goods rose by 0.5%, with significant year-on-year increases in the prices of platinum, gold, and silver jewelry [1] Group 2 - On a month-on-month basis, the CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]

Core Insights - Ghana's inflation rate is projected to be 5.4% by December 2025, a decrease from 6.3% in November 2025, indicating a continuous decline over 12 months [1] - The month-on-month inflation rate is reported at 0.9%, suggesting a relatively moderate increase in prices towards the end of the year [1] - The sustained low inflation is primarily driven by a slowdown in food price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea warns that the continued weakness of the Korean won and potential increases in food prices may lead to inflation rates exceeding expectations, despite the forecast that underlying price pressures will remain around the 2% target range [1] Group 1: Currency Impact - The rising exchange rate of the US dollar against the Korean won poses an upward risk to inflation, particularly for goods with a high import share, such as agricultural and fishery products [1] Group 2: Weather Influence - Adverse weather conditions contribute to greater uncertainty regarding food prices, further complicating the inflation outlook [1]

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,541, up 0.4% for the day and 27.3% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The MSCI China index increased by 0.2%, with a YTD growth of 29.3% [2] - The KOSPI index showed significant growth, up 72.3% YTD, closing at 4,135 [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude oil prices rose by 1.2% to $63 per barrel, but are down 12.1% YTD [3] - Gold prices increased by 0.5% to $4,229 per ounce, reflecting a substantial YTD rise of 61.1% [3] - Copper prices decreased by 1.3% to $11,487 per ton, with a YTD increase of 31.0% [3] Key Macro Indicators - The US FOMC raised the upper bound of the interest rate to 4.0% from a consensus of 3.8% [4] - China's retail sales growth was reported at 2.9% YoY, matching expectations [4] - The surveyed jobless rate in China remained stable at 5.1% [4] Inflation Insights - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% YoY in November, up from 0.2% in October, driven by recovering food prices [7] - Core CPI growth remained steady at 1.2%, indicating limited expansion in other sectors [7] - CPI growth is expected to recover to 0.5% in 2026, with core CPI increasing from 0.7% to 0.9% [8]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, with a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months [1] - Food prices shifted from a decrease of 2.9% in the previous month to an increase of 0.2%, contributing positively to the CPI [1] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of increase, while year-on-year it decreased by 2.2% [2] - Seasonal demand increases in certain domestic industries, such as coal and gas, contributed to the month-on-month price rise in November [2] - The year-on-year decline in PPI was influenced by a high comparison base from the previous year, with the reduction in price declines for certain industries indicating the effectiveness of measures against "involution" competition [2]

Group 1: CPI Insights - In October, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2%, up from -0.3% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of -0.1%[2][4] - The core CPI year-on-year growth rose to 1.2%, compared to 1.0% in the previous month[2][4] - Food prices saw a narrowing year-on-year decline from -4.4% to -2.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, surpassing the seasonal average decline of -0.4%[4][5] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.1% from -2.3%, while the month-on-month PPI increased by 0.1%, marking the first increase of the year[2][6] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to enhanced industrial supply-demand relationships and rising international metal prices, with copper mining prices increasing by 5.3% month-on-month[6][7] - The prices in the coal mining sector rose by 1.6% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in upstream industries[6][7] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to continue its upward trend in Q4, potentially reaching an annual average of 0.7% in 2026, driven by recovering food prices and ongoing consumption policies[8][9] - The PPI's year-on-year decline is anticipated to continue narrowing, although the timeline for a return to positive growth remains uncertain due to slow supply-side adjustments[9][10]