Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoint The main contract of rebar is in a narrow - range oscillation. The medium - term trend is strengthening according to the moving average, standing above the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It will mainly follow the spot price to repair the basis. In the fundamental aspect, as it enters the peak season, it is expected to continue the oscillatory and moderately strong operation. The current situation of demand recovery and inventory reduction supports the sentiment, and geopolitical events affect cost changes and export expectations. The rebar price is likely to maintain an oscillatory and moderately strong pattern. It is necessary to continuously monitor the downstream resumption progress and inventory reduction speed [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Friday, the open interest of the main rebar contract decreased by 62,026 lots. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, reaching 724,139 lots. In terms of the moving average, it briefly fell below the 5 - day moving average of 3137, but the daily line is above the medium - term 30 - day moving average of 3092 and 60 - day moving average of 3113, indicating a strengthening medium - term trend [1]. - **Spot Price**: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar is 3,240 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - **Basis**: The futures price is at a discount of 117 yuan/ton to the spot price [2]. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Situation**: In the week of March 19, 2026, rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 80,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 228,800 tons. The steel mill's resumption of production is moderate, and the supply pressure on prices is limited. The current apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 312,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 349,100 tons. Seasonal resumption of work drives the rebound of apparent demand, but it is still weak year - on - year. Social inventory was 6.5321 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,400 tons; steel mill inventory was 2.362 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,200 tons; the total inventory was 8.8941 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,600 tons, entering the weekly inventory reduction phase, which verifies the start of demand. However, the absolute inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio are still high, suppressing the upward space of prices [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The rebar price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3]. - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Low rebar price valuation, geopolitical factors driving up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support repair [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in inventory reduction speed, and bearish capital position structure [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 16, 2026, the lead futures price showed a high - opening and low - closing trend with a slight decline, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term due to the lack of clear trend - driving factors [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On March 16, 2026, the main contract of SHFE lead futures (PB.SHF) opened high and closed low, with an opening price of 16,550 yuan/ton, a highest price of 16,565 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 16,195 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 16,315 yuan/ton, down 1.63% from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Spot Market Basis Analysis - On March 16, 2026, the average spot price of 1 lead in the domestic non - ferrous market was 16,410 yuan/ton. The spot price was at a premium of 95 yuan/ton over the main contract of lead futures, indicating a relatively stable supply of spot market resources and no obvious supply - demand imbalance [3] 3.3 Market Dynamics - Overseas: The continuous Middle East conflict has pushed up oil prices, strengthened inflation expectations, and the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in March has dropped to near zero. The US dollar index has broken through 100, suppressing the prices of commodities including lead [4] - Domestic: In February, the new social financing was 2.38 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 9% year - on - year. The loose monetary policy provided some support for domestic commodity demand, but the slow consumption recovery restricted the upward space of lead prices [4] 3.4 Market Outlook - Technically, the lead price fell but did not break through the previous low - level range, and it is likely to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [5] - Fundamentally, the current futures - spot price difference is reasonable, there is no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand side, and there are differences between long and short positions in the capital side without extreme unilateral positions, so there is a lack of clear trend - driving factors [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the impact of rising oil prices on various industries, particularly the oil refining and gas supply sectors, which are most directly affected by oil price fluctuations [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Direct Consumption Coefficients**: The oil refining industry has a direct consumption coefficient of 0.54, while the gas supply industry has a coefficient of 0.38, indicating they are the most impacted by rising oil prices [2]. - **Cost Impact on Industries**: A 30% increase in oil prices is expected to raise costs in the gas, refining, chemical, transportation, and metal smelting industries by over 2 percentage points [1][2]. - **PPI Projections**: - A 30% rise in oil prices could lead to a 2.3% increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI). - A 50% increase could raise the PPI by 3.9%. - A 100% increase (to $135 per barrel) could push the PPI increase to over 7% [3][4]. - **2026 PPI Growth Forecast**: - With a 30% oil price increase, the PPI growth rate is projected to recover from a baseline of -0.8% to approximately 1.2%. - A 50% increase could result in a PPI growth of about 2.5%. - A 100% increase could lead to a PPI growth exceeding 5% [4]. Additional Important Insights - **Correlation Analysis**: The correlation between oil prices and PPI is significant, with a coefficient of 0.04 indicating that oil price changes have a measurable impact on PPI [3][5]. - **Model Validation**: Multiple regression models were constructed to validate the impact of oil prices on PPI, showing a high degree of fit (over 80%) and consistent historical predictions [5]. - **Sectoral Impact**: Besides oil refining and gas supply, other sectors such as chemical products, transportation, and metal smelting also exhibit high complete consumption coefficients, indicating substantial indirect impacts from rising oil prices [2]. This summary encapsulates the critical findings and projections regarding the effects of rising oil prices on various industries and overall price levels, highlighting the interconnectedness of oil prices with broader economic indicators like the PPI.

Liquidity - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased week-on-week [4] - BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for February 2026 is 48.66, down 3.20% month-on-month [4] - M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.1 percentage points in January 2026, up 0.6 percentage points month-on-month [4] - Current London gold spot price is $5168 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Blast furnace capacity utilization rate for January-February is at the highest level in five years [5] - Price changes this week: rebar -0.94%, cement price index -0.35%, rubber -1.47%, coke -3.52%, coking coal -0.88%, iron ore +1.20% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates increased by 0.96 percentage points, 8.20 percentage points, and 1.1 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and glass prices are at low levels [6] - This week, titanium dioxide and glass prices increased by 0.75% and 1.31% respectively, with titanium dioxide gross profit at -1933 yuan/ton and flat glass operating rate at 70.81% [6] Industrial Products Chain - National PMI new orders index for February is 48.60% [7] - Major commodity price performance this week: cold-rolled -0.27%, copper -1.09%, aluminum +4.54%, with corresponding gross profit changes of -20.83%, +15.19%, and +14.72% [7] - National semi-steel tire operating rate is 74.03%, up 39.47 percentage points month-on-month [7] Subcategories - Aluminum price increased by 4.5% to 24,410 yuan/ton, tungsten price increased by 15.1% to 919,000 yuan/ton [8] - Super high power graphite electrode price is 19,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1695.04 yuan/ton, down 12.93% [8] - Electrolytic aluminum price is 24,410 yuan/ton, with estimated profit of 7188 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up 14.72% [8] - Electrolytic copper price is 101,210 yuan/ton, down 1.09% [8] - Tungsten concentrate price is 919,000 yuan/ton, up 15.10% from last week [8] Price Comparison Relationships - Hot-rolled and rebar price difference is at the lowest level in five years [9] - Rebar and iron ore price ratio this week is 4.05 [9] - Price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 100 yuan/ton this week [9] - Price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled steel and hot-rolled steel is 270 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [9] - Price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.10 [9] - Price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 160 yuan/ton, down 11.11% from last week [9] - Price difference between medium-thick plate and rebar steel is 120 yuan/ton this week [9] Export Chain - February PMI new export orders for China is 45.00%, down 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [10] - China export container freight index CCFI composite index this week is 1054.26 points, up 0.93% [10] - US crude steel capacity utilization rate is 78.30%, down 0.20 percentage points [10] - As of January 1, 2026, certain steel products will be subject to export license management, which is expected to further regulate China's steel product exports [10] Valuation Percentiles - This week, the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.07%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being oil and petrochemicals (+8.06%) [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are 39.12% and 79.13% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The overall price level in February shows a significant recovery trend, with both CPI and PPI experiencing notable increases due to concentrated consumer demand during the Spring Festival and structural improvements in the economy [2][5][11]. CPI Analysis - In February, the national CPI increased from 0.2% to 1.3% year-on-year, marking the highest level in nearly three years, while the core CPI rose from 0.8% to 1.8% [5][6]. - Food prices shifted from a decline to an increase of 1.7%, contributing approximately 0.30 percentage points to the CPI increase, driven by heightened demand during the Spring Festival [6][7]. - Service prices surged by 1.6% year-on-year, influenced by concentrated consumer demand during the holiday, contributing about 0.75 percentage points to the CPI [6][7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year in February, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the third consecutive month of reduced decline [11]. - The prices of production materials recorded a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, while living materials saw a decline of 1.6% [11]. - Key industries such as electronic components and high-end equipment manufacturing showed price increases, with notable rises in aviation manufacturing (7.7%) and shipbuilding (0.5%) [11][15]. Price Trends - The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month in February, maintaining a five-month upward trend, primarily driven by rising production material prices [13]. - Significant price increases were observed in the energy sector, with oil and gas extraction prices rising by 5.1% and refined petroleum products by 0.7% [4][15]. - The prices of non-food industrial consumer goods expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4% month-on-month, influenced by international geopolitical factors and rising commodity prices [7][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is oscillating with a bullish bias [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the HC2605 contract increased in price while reducing positions. The macro - economic aspect shows that the investment in key areas such as water network, power grid, computing power network, etc. will exceed 7 trillion yuan this year. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, with the capacity utilization dropping to around 77%. Terminal demand was weaker than expected, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. Overall, the hot - rolled coil market has both positive and negative factors, but the continuous rise in international oil prices supports commodity prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rebounding upwards with an enlarged red column [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the position volume was 1,292,623 lots, down 106,185 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was 37,176 lots, up 1,235 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread was - 12 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 479,016 tons, up 5,901 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 151 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,180 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 0 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, up 16 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 171.2272 million tons, up 264,100 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 630,300 tons, up 4,400 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.7153 million tons, down 35,300 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 2.3265 million tons, up 131,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 77.69%, down 2.55 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.3%, down 2.18 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.0111 million tons, down 85,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 76.92%, down 2.17 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 900,800 tons, down 47,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.8161 million tons, up 242,400 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.78 million tons, up 1.3 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.4499 million vehicles, down 846,100 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles was 2.3465 million vehicles, down 925,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.975 million units, down 38,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the national ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month, the same as the previous month. From January to February, on average, the ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 1.2% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 1.1%. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and increased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month. The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in February was 51.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and has been above 50% for two consecutive months [2]

Inflation Trends - Inflation continues to accelerate, with February CPI at 1.3%, up from 0.2% previously, and PPI at -0.9%, an improvement from -1.4%[2] - The simulated monthly deflation index for February 2026 is 0.42%, marking the first positive reading in 36 months, one month earlier than expected[2] - The monthly simulated deflation index turned negative in March 2023 at -0.58%, reaching a low of -2.16% in June 2023, before gradually recovering[2] Price Movements - CPI for February 2026 shows a month-on-month increase of 1.0%, consistent with previous years (2015, 2018, 2024) at 1.2%, 1.2%, and 1.0% respectively[2] - Key contributors to CPI increases include air travel (31.1%), travel agency fees (15.8%), and gold jewelry (6.2%)[4][3] - PPI shows a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, marking the fifth consecutive month of positive growth, with notable increases in mining (1.2%) and processing industries (0.6%)[8] Future Outlook - March inflation data is expected to remain favorable due to rising oil prices, with Brent crude increasing from $72.5 to $92.7 per barrel[10] - The South China Industrial Product Index has shown an upward trend, averaging 3902 in March compared to 3656 in February[11] - Risks include potential external economic shocks, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuations in commodity prices that could impact downstream pricing[12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market of rebar will continue to fluctuate within a range. With the convening of the Two Sessions, some steel mills have blast furnace maintenance plans, and geopolitical tensions continue to push up oil prices, which supports commodity prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis with a stable red column. It is recommended for short - term trading with risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,071.00 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the position volume is 1,839,511 lots, down 42,377 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 25,724 lots, up 7,572 lots; the spread between RB5 - 10 contracts is - 29 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 22,828 tons, unchanged; the spread between HC2605 - RB2605 contracts is 141 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,240.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) is 3,323 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,410.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,120.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract is 169.00 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 10.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 750.00 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - free) is 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,910.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 170.9631 million tons, up 1.5398 million tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants is 625,900 tons, up 72,100 tons; the inventory of coke in sample steel mills is 6.7506 million tons, down 135,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 2.1946 million tons, up 452,400 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 80.24%, up 0.09%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 87.48%, up 1.05% [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar in sample steel mills is 1.651 million tons, down 52,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar in sample steel mills is 36.19%, down 1.16%. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills is 2.3284 million tons, up 117,700 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 5.6776 million tons, up 727,900 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 11.46%, down 10.42%. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 13.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products is 10.78 million tons, up 1.3 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is - 3.80%, down 1.20%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment is - 17.20%, down 1.30%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is - 2.20%, down 1.10%. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 659.89 million square meters, down 38.24 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58.77 million square meters, down 53.13 million square meters; the area of unsold commercial housing is 40.236 million square meters, down 8.75 million square meters [2]. Industry News - From February 23rd to March 1st, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.3202 million square meters, a 3.5% increase compared with the week before the Spring Festival, and the cumulative transaction area since this year has decreased by 16.9% year - on - year. As of February 28th, 16 cities have issued 21 policies to relax the housing market, including Shanghai's "Seven Measures", which lower the entry threshold for non - Shanghai residents to buy houses, expand the home - purchase eligibility of the population with residence permits, and moderately relax the purchase restrictions within the outer ring [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 2, 2026 - **Stock Indexes**: A-share market had mixed performance. Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.47% to 4182.59, Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.20% to 14465.79, and ChiNext Index dropped 0.49% to 3294.16. The trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3.04 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 539.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day. CSI 300 index closed at 4728.67, up 18.02 [1][2]. - **Futures Contracts** - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke weighted index closed at 1660.8, up 22.9; Coking coal weighted index closed at 1113.5 yuan, up 12.8 [2][3]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2605 oscillated higher during the day and slightly lower at night. The global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to be 184.4 million tons, a reduction of 2.3 million tons from the previous forecast, mainly due to the decrease in India's production forecast from 32.8 million tons to 30.2 million tons. The sugar consumption in 2025/26 is expected to be 177.7 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 6.7 million tons [4]. - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber futures oscillated higher during the day and slightly higher at night. The EU passenger car market sales in January 2026 decreased 3.9% to 799,625 units [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1161.75 cents per bushel, down 0.71%. The US soybean export inspection volume was better than expected. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2826 yuan per ton, down 0.25% [5]. - **Live Pigs**: The main live - pig contract LH2605 closed at 11220 yuan per ton, down 2.31%. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures rebounded for two consecutive days. The main contract P2605 closed at 8898, up 1.34%. The Malaysian palm oil production in February 2026 decreased, and the export volume also decreased [5]. - **Other Futures** - **Copper**: Shanghai copper main contract opened at 104,230, closed at 103,850. The spot copper was in a discount pattern [7]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15175 yuan per ton at night, and the inventory increased [7]. - **Log**: The log 2605 main contract opened and closed at 800, with a daily position increase of 811 lots [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2605 main contract rose 0.87% to 754.5 yuan. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2604 main contract rose 5.98% to 3529 yuan. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Steel**: The rb2605 closed at 3067 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3219 yuan per ton. The steel price may oscillate slightly stronger [8]. - **Alumina**: The ao2605 closed at 2773 yuan per ton. The alumina supply surplus situation remains, and there is pressure on the price [8]. - **Aluminum**: The al2604 closed at 24431 yuan per ton. The aluminum market is affected by geopolitical factors, with supply running smoothly and demand improving [9]. 2. Core Views - **Stock Market**: The A - share market showed a mixed trend on March 2, 2026, with significant trading volume expansion [1]. - **Futures Market** - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The prices of coke and coking coal futures rose. The production and demand of coke have changed, and the coking coal spot market was weak in February [2][3][4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices of sugar, rubber, soybean meal, and palm oil futures were affected by various factors such as geopolitics, production, and demand. The live - pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [4][5]. - **Industrial Metals**: The prices of copper, aluminum, and iron ore futures were influenced by factors like supply, demand, and geopolitics. The steel and asphalt prices are expected to oscillate, and the alumina price has an upper - limit pressure [7][8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment in 2026 is characterized by increased volatility and sector rotation in the commodity market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and changes in monetary policy, particularly from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Market Characteristics - The primary feature of the current market is the significant price increase in commodities driven by massive liquidity released by various countries from 2021 to 2025, with the U.S. playing a key role through interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [3]. - Since the second half of 2025, geopolitical issues have dominated commodity market trends, leading to a persistent rise in prices for precious and base metals due to countries competing for strategic resources [3][5]. Price Dynamics and Trends - In 2026, the market is expected to exhibit characteristics of significant price volatility and a notable premium on safe assets, with a clear division in sector performance [4][5]. - The core drivers of the commodity market in 2026 include the weakening of the dollar's credit, the demand surge for strategic metals due to the AI revolution, and the geopolitical risks prompting countries to secure strategic resources [5]. Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, expected to trade between 6.8 and 7 against the dollar throughout 2026 [6]. - Key supporting factors for the yuan's appreciation include a structural trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 and a shift in global asset allocation favoring Chinese assets [6]. Asset Rotation Insights - The pricing mechanism for commodities is shifting from traditional supply-demand dynamics to macroeconomic narratives, emphasizing the importance of de-dollarization, the AI revolution, and supply chain dynamics [7]. - Both industry clients and individual traders are advised to enhance risk awareness and adapt to changes in market pricing mechanisms, focusing on investment opportunities in strategic resources [7].