特朗普上台以后，经常在社交媒体上「炮轰」美联储和鲍威尔，咄咄逼人的态势有时候甚至比对中国都强横。 为啥呢？为什么特朗普一直在刀口向内呢？核心就一个词：降息。 那今天我们不拽什么术语，就一篇文章给你讲清楚，美国利率到底意味着什么，降息对咱们国家是好是坏。 大家应该都知道，美国没有央行的概念，美联储理论上说是个私人机构。 所以美国总统有时候没办法直接干预美国利率，但特朗普有自己的办法。 骂鲍威尔是太迟先生（Mr. Too Late），称其决策"混乱且危险"，甚至威胁"越早走人越好"，这一切行为都是想通过把鲍威尔钉在历史罪人的耻辱柱上，来 逼迫美联储降息。 为啥呢？ 7月特朗普发了一个文，说美国利率至少偏高2个百分点，每个百分点每年造成3600亿美元成本。 这话到底有没有科学依据不重要，重要的是，特朗普点出了一个关键点，就是美国利率意味着经济成本。 道理很简单，利率高大家就喜欢存钱，不论是老百姓还是各种机构，都喜欢囤起来，安安稳稳的赚利息就好。 那市面上的钱就少了，对应的，融资成本也就高了（借钱的利率也就贵了嘛）。 举个例子，美国政府也借钱，也就是咱们常说的美国赤字。 那政府借钱，也是要还利息的。 2024年美国国 ...

铜、铝、黄金等，建议以逢低做多为主 在下半年可能迎来美联储再度降息的预期下，市场对于降息对大宗商品价格的影响关注度再度升温。然 而，关于美联储降息对大宗商品价格的影响，市场存在分歧：一部分观点认为，美联储降息往往意味着 经济增长放缓，并且从历史数据来看，降息的同时大宗商品价格下跌的情况较为常见；但也有观点认 为，降息能够刺激经济增长、释放流动性，进而对大宗商品价格起到提振作用。本文基于历史数据，阐 述利率变动路径对大宗商品价格的传导逻辑，深入分析下半年及后续的降息可能性，并进一步探索大宗 商品在降息预期下的交易逻辑。 A降息周期中经济的表现 1982年以来，美国经历了大小11轮降息周期，本轮降息周期开始于去年9月，到目前为止本轮降息周期 中共降息100个基点，利率从5.25%~5.5%调整至4.25%~4.5%。美联储开启降息周期一般是面对较大的经 济下行压力，甚至进入危机模式之时。与加息周期相比，降息周期基准利率调整的节奏一般更为连续而 迅速，降息很少出现降一次后就暂停降息的情况，而且降息幅度往往较大。 1982年之前的美联储降息周期大多处于大通胀时代，其间经济绝大部分时间处于停滞或负增长的状态， 叠加高企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and market dynamics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July 2025, down 6.16% from the previous month [4] - London gold prices increased by 1.07% compared to the previous week [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Key enterprises' average daily crude steel production hit a new low for the year in late July [5] - Price changes included rebar down 0.60%, cement price index down 0.37%, rubber down 1.71%, coke up 3.79%, coking coal up 3.55%, and iron ore up 1.31% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.15 percentage points, while cement and asphalt production rates increased by 10.00% and decreased by 0.6% respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and flat glass prices changed by -0.39% and 0.00% respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1353 CNY/ton [6] - The flat glass operating rate was 73% this week [6] Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum increasing by 1.26%, 0.33%, and 0.68% respectively, with corresponding profit changes of +6.01%, -18.19%, and +4.26% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 74.35%, down 0.10 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate reached a new high since 2012 [8] - Graphite electrode price was 18,000 CNY/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive profit of 1357.4 CNY/ton, down 7.35% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,630 CNY/ton, up 0.68%, with estimated profit at 3,050 CNY/ton (excluding tax), up 4.26% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.24 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 140 CNY/ton, while the price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel was 380 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton [9] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar steel was 160 CNY/ton this week [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in July 2025 was 47.10%, down 0.6 percentage points [10] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1200.73 points, down 2.56% [10] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.70%, up 0.30 percentage points [10] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.23%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being engineering machinery at +6.21% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 index was 47.28% and 69.23% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.57, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to repeated digestion of previous policy benefits and unimproved corporate profits, the stock index may face callback risks after continuous rise; for gold, although the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, the easing of global trade tensions may lead to a continuation of the adjustment after the rebound, maintaining a band - short thinking [39][40] - In the medium - to long - term, the stock index's valuation is dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock; gold may face a deep adjustment due to the fading of tariff policy uncertainties and the release of dovish signals by the Fed [40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Macroeconomic Data at Home and Abroad - In July this year, the growth rates of imports and exports both rebounded, mainly due to the rise in commodity prices and the low - base effect of the same period last year. However, domestic and foreign demand remains weak [4] 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.2.1. Corporate Profit - The rise in commodity prices helps improve the profits of upstream raw material processing industries, but due to weak terminal demand, enterprises still face great operating pressure, with the phenomenon of increasing revenue but not profit. They have to reduce production and inventory, and the inflection point of profit growth has not arrived [15] 3.2.2. Capital Situation - The margin balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is approaching the 2 - trillion - yuan mark. The central bank conducted 1.1267 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [19] 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data 3.3.1. US Economic Data - In June, the number of new non - farm jobs in the US was 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. In July, the ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48, contracting for 5 consecutive months. Fed officials released dovish signals, suggesting that the time window for a rate cut is approaching [23] 3.3.2. Gold Inventory - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have soared, while the New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [36] 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Be cautious of the callback risk of the stock index; for gold, maintain a band - short thinking [40] - Medium - to long - term: The stock index is expected to maintain a wide - range shock; gold may face a deep adjustment [40] 3.5. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - Key data such as China's July investment, consumption, industrial added value, US CPI, and speeches by Fed officials [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No indication of the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core View of the Report The report presents the market performance of various futures and spot commodities on August 7, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, palm oil, soybean meal, live pigs, copper, cotton, logs, steel, alumina, and aluminum. It also analyzes the influencing factors and future trends of each commodity [1][5][7]. Summary by Commodity Stock Index Futures - On August 7, A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up 0.16% at 3639.67 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.18% at 11157.94 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.68% at 2342.86 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1825.5 billion yuan, an increase of 91.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index had a strong oscillation, closing at 4114.67, up 1.18 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke's fifth - round price increase was implemented on Monday. Driven by the rapid rise in coal prices at the cost end, coke followed the upward trend, and the coking profit returned to the break - even point. Due to the upcoming military parade, production restrictions are expected, with potential supply and demand reduction in the second half of the month. It is expected that the first - round price cut will start in mid - to late August [5]. - For coking coal, the prices of some varieties increased. The supply side saw a slight decline in mine开工 rate due to stricter safety inspections, and the demand side was relatively healthy. The basis was - 215.5, down 31 [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by Brazil's weak export data in July, the US sugar market declined slightly on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was under pressure from short - sellers on Thursday. As of August 1, India's sugarcane planting area increased compared to the same period last year, and Brazil's sugar exports in July decreased by 5% compared to the same period last year [5]. Rubber - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of potential floods from August 10 - 12, causing the Shanghai rubber futures to rise slightly on Thursday. In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to July increased by 20.8% [6]. Palm Oil - On August 7, palm oil prices oscillated within the previous day's range. The import cost of palm oil in China decreased, and the price inversion range narrowed. There were no new purchases in the domestic market last week [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures declined on August 7. US soybean export sales in the week ending July 31 were higher than expected. Domestically, on August 7, soybean meal futures oscillated. There was sufficient soybean supply, but concerns about future supply shortages remained. The price will continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to US weather and import conditions [8]. Live Pigs - On August 7, live pig futures rose. The current consumption demand is weak, but short - term support comes from reduced slaughter and some secondary fattening demand. In the medium term, the market is still in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and attention should be paid to policy and slaughter conditions [9]. Shanghai Copper - Due to weak economic data and dovish remarks from some Fed officials, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased, and the US dollar index was weak. Coupled with a warm domestic industrial product atmosphere, Shanghai copper temporarily stabilized. In early August, it may still face pressure, but the downside space is limited [9]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13665 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and China's textile and clothing exports in July decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. Logs - The futures price of logs showed a certain trend, and the spot price was stable. The futures price was driven up by the increase in the external market price. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and market sentiment [11]. Steel - On August 7, steel futures prices were at certain levels. The cost of coking coal still strongly supported steel prices, but weak demand restricted the upward space. In the short term, steel prices may oscillate strongly with frequent ups and downs [11]. Alumina - On August 7, alumina futures closed at 3211 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable, but the market was inactive. The inventory was accumulating, and the price faced upward pressure [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 7, Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20750 yuan/ton. In the short term, it was under pressure, but with the expectation of a macro - level relaxation, it has the potential to rebound after the off - season. Attention should be paid to inventory and consumption trends in August [12].

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for June shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, with CPI rising slightly while PPI continues to decline, indicating a mixed economic environment influenced by various commodity prices [2][8][69]. Group 1: Divergence in Commodity Prices - In June, PPI fell by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to declining prices of upstream commodities like coal and steel, while CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, supported by rising food prices and platinum [2][9][69]. - The decline in PPI was driven by oversupply in sectors such as steel, cement, and coal, which contributed to a 0.4% month-on-month decrease, while international oil prices provided some support to PPI, contributing positively from oil and copper prices [2][9][69]. Group 2: Core Commodity PPI and CPI Trends - Core commodity PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting the impact of tariffs and low capacity utilization in domestic downstream industries, with a slight recovery of 0.4 percentage points to -1% year-on-year [3][21][70]. - In contrast, core commodity CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies that have bolstered domestic demand, particularly in durable goods and household items [3][27][70]. Group 3: Service CPI Performance - Service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI also holding steady at 0.8%, while rental prices showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1% [4][30][61]. - The overall demand for services has remained stable, but the rental component, which is a significant part of the service CPI, has not performed as well compared to previous years [4][30][61]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but significant downward pressure on commodity prices is anticipated in the second half of the year, with PPI expected to underperform CPI [4][35][70]. - Factors such as tariff disturbances, low global oil inventories, and weakened investment in real estate and manufacturing are likely to constrain commodity prices, while low capacity utilization in downstream sectors will continue to suppress PPI recovery [4][35][70].

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In June, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) ended a four-month decline, rising by 0.1% year-on-year, while the month-on-month change decreased by 0.1%, narrowing the decline by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices, with food price declines slightly narrowing and service prices rising by 0.5% [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and reaching a 14-month high [1][4] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The national Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [5][11] - The decline in PPI was influenced by seasonal price decreases in certain raw materials, with significant drops in prices for black metal smelting and non-metal mineral products [6][7] - The overall PPI for the first half of the year decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the real estate market and weak consumer demand [7][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The outlook for PPI improvement in the second half of the year remains limited, with an estimated annual decline of around 2.3%, which is better than the first half's decline of 2.8% [8][9] - Domestic demand continues to be weak, with low levels of real estate and infrastructure investment, which are insufficient to drive up related resource prices [8][9] - The overall manufacturing capacity utilization rate is low, leading to a phase of oversupply in certain industries [8]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for June shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, with CPI rising slightly while PPI continues to decline, indicating mixed performance in commodity, core goods, and service prices [2][8][69]. Group 1: Divergence in Commodity Prices - In June, PPI fell by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of upstream commodities like coal and steel, while CPI saw a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, driven by extreme weather affecting food supply [2][9][69]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by sufficient supply in steel, cement, and coal, which contributed to a 0.4% month-on-month drop, while rising international oil prices provided some support to PPI [2][9][69]. - CPI's increase was supported by a 12.6% rise in platinum jewelry prices, contributing to a 0.8 percentage point increase in the CPI for other goods and services [2][9][69]. Group 2: Core Goods Price Trends - Core goods PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting the impact of tariffs and low capacity utilization in domestic downstream industries, with a slight recovery of 0.4 percentage points to -1% year-on-year [3][21][70]. - The pressure on prices in high-export industries, such as computer communications and electrical machinery, continues, with respective declines of 0.4% and 0.2% [3][21][70]. - Conversely, core goods CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies, with notable price increases in durable goods and household textiles [3][21][70]. Group 3: Service Price Dynamics - Service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI also holding steady at 0.8% [4][30][61]. - The virtual rent CPI, which is a significant component of service CPI, showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average [4][30][61]. - The overall stability in service demand contrasts with the weaker performance of rent prices, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market [4][30][61]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, although significant downward pressure on commodity prices is anticipated in the second half of the year [4][35][70]. - Factors such as tariff disturbances, low global oil supply, and weakened investment in real estate and manufacturing are likely to constrain commodity prices further [4][35][70]. - The low capacity utilization in downstream sectors, particularly in private enterprises, is expected to hinder PPI recovery, with projections indicating continued weakness in PPI compared to CPI [4][35][70].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and trends in different sectors, highlighting the current state of liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, along with price movements and production metrics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous month [3] - London gold prices increased by 1.94% compared to the previous week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 2.91%, cement price index down by 1.68%, and iron ore up by 3.55% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires changed by -0.54 percentage points, +16.00 percentage points, -0.6 percentage points, and -1.89 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass decreased by 1.47% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1227 CNY/ton [5] - The operating rate for flat glass was 75.68% this week [5] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel and copper prices increasing by 0.27% and 0.22%, while aluminum prices decreased by 0.91% [6] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 70.41%, down by 7.64 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum reached a record high since 2012 in May [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,750 CNY/ton, down by 0.91%, with a calculated profit of 3,428 CNY/ton (excluding tax) [7] - The price of graphite electrodes remained stable at 18,000 CNY/ton, with a comprehensive profit of 1,357.4 CNY/ton, down by 5.56% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore reached a near seven-month high at 4.27 this week [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 110 CNY/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 340 CNY/ton, up by 170 CNY/ton [8] - The price difference for small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 140 CNY/ton, down by 26.32% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,342.99 points, down by 1.92% [9] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel was 79.10%, down by 0.50 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being ordinary steel, which rose by 6.52% [10] - The PB ratios for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB were 37.44% and 69.40% respectively [10] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides insights into various economic indicators and market trends, highlighting the performance of different sectors and commodities, which can inform investment decisions. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points [2] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In early June, the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises was 2.159 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.25% [3] - Price changes included rebar up by 0.65%, cement price index down by 1.17%, and coke down by 4.27% [3] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remained stable, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -921 yuan/ton [4] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 78.05%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [5] - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel down by 0.54% and copper up by 2.36% [5] Subcategories - The price of electrolytic aluminum reached 20,940 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1.16%, with estimated profit at 3,500 yuan/ton (excluding tax) [6] - The price of graphite electrodes remained unchanged at 18,000 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down by 5.56% [6] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.23, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 150 yuan/ton [7] - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 190 yuan/ton, down by 20.83% from the previous week [7] Export Chain - In May 2025, China's PMI new export orders were at 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [8] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) was 1,369.34 points, up by 2.00% [8] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +6.53% [9] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the overall market was 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [9]