广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 1月生意社BPI升至一年来高位。本月格陵兰岛、中东等地缘事件频发，全球地缘政治威胁指数月均值 环比上行66.3%，避险情绪与地缘溢价推动大宗商品价格；月末受风险偏好回摆影响，贵金属价格高位巨 震。截至1月30日，生意社BPI指数录得956点，相较去年12月末环比回升6.3%。其中能源、有色指数（月 环比）分别为1.5%、21.7%。 第二， 1月内盘定价大宗商品涨跌互现，化工品价格涨幅靠前。就分项而言，环渤海动力煤现货、螺纹、焦 煤、玻璃期货价月环比分别录得1.2%、-2.2%、0.1%、3.0%；化工 产品 指数稳中有升，月环比录得 4.8%；水泥价格有所回落，月环比录得-4.0%。南华综合指数（期末值）环比收涨8.6%，月均值同比录得 8.8%（前值3.0%）。 第三， 上海、深圳二手房价回温，北京、广州房价降幅收窄。截至1月26日（最新数据），北上广深四大一 线城市二手房挂牌价格指数环比录得-0.5%、1.1%、-1.0%、0.4%。 第四， 存储芯片、碳酸锂等新兴制造业价格偏强，光伏行业综合指数 ...

Core Insights - The BPI Industrial Raw Materials Price Index remained stable in August, with energy prices weak due to easing geopolitical tensions, while non-ferrous metal prices increased [1][5][6] - Domestic demand pricing for bulk commodities showed mixed results, with significant increases in thermal coal and coking coal prices, while rebar and glass futures declined [9][12] - The trend of declining housing prices continued in major cities, with second-hand housing price indices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing decreases [12] Group 1: Price Index and Commodity Trends - The BPI index recorded 869 points as of August 31, unchanged from the end of July, with energy prices down 0.2% and non-ferrous prices up 1.4% month-on-month [1][6] - In August, 139 commodities saw price increases, primarily in the chemical sector (88 commodities) and non-ferrous metals (16 commodities) [6] - The South China Comprehensive Index fell by 0.6% month-on-month, while the monthly average value recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [9] Group 2: Emerging Industries and Downstream Prices - The photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) rose by 5.1% month-on-month, with polysilicon prices increasing by 2.2% and lithium carbonate futures up 14.3% [12][13] - The DXI index, reflecting semiconductor (DRAM) market conditions, increased by 2.4% [12][13] - Downstream prices remained weak, with the Linyi Mall Price Index dropping by 0.41% compared to the end of July, particularly in clothing and hardware sectors [14] Group 3: Shipping and Logistics - Export shipping prices generally declined, with the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) down 8.3% month-on-month [15][16] - The WCID container freight indices for routes from Shanghai to Los Angeles and New York fell by 11.4% and 7.5%, respectively [18] - The average monthly value of the highway logistics price index increased by 0.8% year-on-year, but showed a downward trend in August [20] Group 4: Food Prices and Consumer Trends - Food prices exhibited mixed trends, with average wholesale prices for pork down 1.9% month-on-month, while prices for 28 key vegetables rose by 12.0% [21] - The average wholesale price for seven monitored fruits decreased by 2.7%, and corn futures fell by 3.1% [21] - The ICPI index from Tsinghua University recorded a monthly value of 99.66, indicating a decline compared to July [14] Group 5: PMI and Economic Signals - The PMI and EPMI price signals were strong, with both the purchasing and output price indices rising for the third consecutive month [22] - Current price data indicates a lack of a clear trend, with strong prices mainly in sectors influenced by supply-demand dynamics [22]