Core Insights - Shenzhen's recent policy on affordable housing marks a significant shift in the housing market, implementing closed management for allocated affordable housing, prohibiting conversion to commercial housing [1][4][16] - This policy could signify the beginning of a dual-track system in China's housing market, redefining the purchasing logic for ordinary citizens [3][16] Summary by Categories Affordable Housing System - The affordable housing system in China is categorized into three types: public rental housing, rental housing for new citizens and youth, and allocated affordable housing, which is sold by the government to eligible families at prices below market rates [4] - The key change in Shenzhen's new policy is the severing of the conversion channel between affordable housing and commercial housing, eliminating the investment potential of allocated affordable housing [4][5] Market Dynamics - The new policy is seen as the starting point for a "Singapore-style housing model" in China, where 80% of the population lives in government-subsidized housing, and 20% in commercial housing [5] - The financial attributes of housing will be redefined, with affordable housing stripped of its investment potential, while commercial housing will face restrictions under the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy [6][8] Demand Structure - The demand structure for commercial housing will change significantly, as allocated affordable housing will divert first-time buyers from the commercial market, leading to a reduction in demand for mid-range properties [8] - Real estate developers will need to pivot towards high-end improvement products to attract customers, focusing on optimizing layouts and enhancing property services [8] Market Segmentation - The dual-track system will exacerbate market segmentation, with core urban areas maintaining value while peripheral regions face increased risks due to population outflow and reduced demand [9] - The importance of city selection will rise, with a focus on first-tier cities or strong second-tier cities to ensure liquidity and resilience against market fluctuations [9][10] Price Trends - In the short term, housing prices are expected to enter a "bottoming period," with limited upward or downward movement due to economic challenges and cautious consumer sentiment [10][12] - Long-term price drivers will hinge on economic fundamentals and market liquidity, with potential for moderate price increases if economic conditions improve [10][12] Investment Considerations - The dual-track system emphasizes the need for investors to adopt a cash flow mindset rather than speculative approaches, focusing on high-end rental markets and potential urban renewal opportunities [14][16] - Ordinary buyers are encouraged to prioritize housing quality and location over speculative gains, with a focus on core urban areas and well-serviced neighborhoods [16]