Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continuation of a "more proactive" fiscal policy in China for 2026, emphasizing the need for expansionary fiscal measures to support economic growth amid ongoing internal and external challenges [3][5][6]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central government is expected to maintain a fiscal deficit rate of no less than 4% in 2026, with new government debt projected to exceed approximately 12 trillion yuan in 2025, potentially reaching between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [3][6][10]. - The overall public budget expenditure is anticipated to surpass 30 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting the government's commitment to stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and improving people's livelihoods [3][10][14]. Structural Adjustments - Experts suggest that alongside the expansion of fiscal policy, there should be a focus on optimizing the structure of fiscal spending, prioritizing investments in human capital and consumer welfare [3][10][15]. - The emphasis will be on balancing short-term stimulus with long-term sustainability, ensuring that fiscal measures effectively support both investment and consumption [7][8][15]. Debt Management - The government is likely to increase the scale of new debt issuance to address the fiscal deficit and support economic recovery, with estimates suggesting that new government debt could reach around 15 trillion yuan in 2026 [11][13][12]. - The fiscal deficit rate may rise to approximately 4.5% to 5%, with special bonds and local government bonds playing a crucial role in financing infrastructure and other key projects [11][13]. Focus on Social Welfare and Consumption - There is a strong recommendation for fiscal funds to be directed towards social welfare, including healthcare, education, and elderly care, while also promoting consumption through targeted fiscal support [15][17]. - The article highlights the need for increased fiscal support for consumer goods and services, suggesting that the government may expand the scope of subsidies and tax reductions to stimulate demand [15][17]. Tax and Fiscal Reforms - The article indicates that 2026 will see a push for deeper fiscal reforms, including the potential shift of consumption tax responsibilities from central to local governments to enhance local fiscal capacity [18]. - Zero-based budgeting reforms are expected to expand, aiming to improve the efficiency of fiscal spending and better align responsibilities between central and local governments [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" to stabilize the economy and promote growth [1][3][4] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to be no lower than 4%, with new government debt projected to exceed 12 trillion yuan, potentially reaching between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [1][2][6] - The focus of fiscal spending will shift towards enhancing public welfare and stimulating consumption, with an emphasis on "investing in people" [1][12][13] Group 2 - The fiscal policy will maintain an expansionary stance to support economic growth, particularly in light of ongoing challenges in the real estate market and consumer spending [5][6][10] - The total fiscal expenditure is anticipated to exceed 30 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of around 4.5% to match nominal GDP growth [10][11] - There will be a significant increase in the issuance of special bonds and local government bonds to support infrastructure and public services [9][12][14] Group 3 - The government aims to enhance the sustainability of fiscal policies while balancing short-term stimulus with long-term stability [4][7] - Recommendations include increasing fiscal support for consumption, particularly in sectors like healthcare, education, and social security [12][13] - The reform of the fiscal and tax system will focus on increasing local government financial autonomy and improving the efficiency of fiscal spending [14]