来源：熊园观察 国盛证券首席经济学家，熊园 博士国盛证券宏观首席分析师，张浩；宏观分析师，薛舒宁 事件：2月20日，美国最高法院判决特朗普IEEPA关税违宪，当天特朗普签署行政令，新增10%的122关 税作为替代措施；2月21日，特朗普称将把新关税税率由10%提高至15%，具体是否落地仍待正式文件 确认。 核心结论：对等关税和芬太尼关税被判违宪，特朗普当即援引122条款新增10%关税（后又宣称将税率 提升至15%）。122条款仅提供临时征税权、最多征收150天、且法理依据不足，同样可能面临司法挑 战，因此122条款仅可作为短期政策过渡，为其他调查争取时间，中期预计转向以301和232为主的关税 框架。资产影响看，美股受益于关税下降后的盈利改善，有所上涨；市场对美国财政状况恶化的担忧加 剧，美债收益率上行，美元走弱；关税不确定性下降压制黄金价格，同时美元走弱支撑黄金价格，黄金 先跌后涨。 1、最高法院宣布特朗普败诉，对等关税和芬太尼关税立即终止征收，符合市场此前预期；已征收关税 是否退还并未明确提及，将由下级法院处理。 2、判决结果公布后，特朗普当即做出回应，新增10%的122关税作为替代措施（针对所有国家、部 ...

Economic Growth and Investment - The GDP growth for the year 2025 is projected at 5.0%, achieving the annual economic growth target, characterized by a "high first, low second" structure and stronger external demand compared to internal demand [2] - In December 2025, industrial production accelerated, particularly in new momentum sectors such as pharmaceuticals, specialized equipment, and computer communications [2] - Fixed asset investment continued to decline throughout 2025, recording negative growth, but is expected to rebound in 2026 due to new policy financial tools and increased special bond investments [2] Consumer and Price Trends - In December, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8%, reaching the highest level since March 2023, primarily driven by increased food prices [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also turned positive, supported by improved supply-demand order from "anti-involution" policies and rising commodity prices [3] - Retail sales growth slowed to a new low for 2023, but service consumption showed improvement, indicating a potential bottoming out of certain consumer goods [2][3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal revenue saw a significant decline at year-end, with major tax categories dropping, while fiscal expenditure decreased at a slower rate [3] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain at a high level of 4.0%, ensuring that expenditure efforts will not diminish [3] - The central bank announced a reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and expanded their scope, indicating ongoing targeted support for key sectors [3] External Environment and Market Trends - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% in January, aligning with expectations, while continuing its asset purchase program [4] - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally in January, with emerging markets performing particularly well, and A-share indices all rising [4] - The bond market is expected to remain stable under conditions of liquidity easing and policy support, with certain bonds still holding investment value [5]

Key Points - The fiscal policy in 2025 remains strong, but the effectiveness of fiscal expansion in driving economic growth has decreased, reflecting a lower "cost-effectiveness" of fiscal measures due to structural transformation, slow spending of special government bonds, and low price levels impacting fiscal efficiency [2][6][13] Group 1: Fiscal Strength and Effectiveness - The fiscal policy maintains a strong expansionary stance, with total fiscal expenditure as a percentage of GDP showing a recovery in 2025 after a decline from Q3 2022 to the end of 2024 [5][6] - The fiscal multiplier effect has weakened, with the fiscal effect coefficient dropping below 1, indicating that fiscal spending is less effective in driving GDP growth compared to 2024 [6][10] - Structural transformation has led to a shift in fiscal spending towards areas with higher capital retention and longer effectiveness cycles, reducing the expected impact on traditional infrastructure [7][10] Group 2: Changes in Policy Focus - The 2026 fiscal policy aims to maintain a stable budget deficit rate while expanding fiscal spending, with a focus on domestic demand, technological innovation, and strengthening social welfare [15][18] - The emphasis on domestic demand has shifted to a strategic priority of "domestic demand-led" growth, highlighting the importance of increasing residents' income [18][20] - The standardization of tools and policies is aimed at enhancing efficiency, with a focus on preventing local subsidy competition and creating a unified national market [20][21] Group 3: Government Debt and Financing - The issuance of government bonds in Q1 2026 is expected to remain stable compared to the previous year, with a slight increase in net financing scale [24][26] - Local government debt issuance is primarily focused on special refinancing bonds, with a more uniform pace of debt issuance anticipated in 2026 compared to 2025 [26] - The overall growth rate of government debt in Q1 2026 is expected to be lower than in the same period in 2025, indicating a more moderate approach to fiscal expansion [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the coke industry is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoint - The overall supply - demand of coke is weak during the seasonal inventory accumulation phase, with relatively stable downstream steel mill hot - metal production and on - demand restocking. The real - estate investment growth decline continues to widen, and long - term demand continues to decline. With a generally positive macro - environment, the coke market will mainly show wide - range fluctuations. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support performance near the previous low, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Coke Inventory: As of January 16th, independent coke enterprise inventory decreased by 4.95% month - on - month to 81.81 tons, steel mill inventory increased to 650.33 tons, port inventory increased by 6.41% to 265.07 tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 16.31 tons to 997.21 tons, reaching a 7 - month high, with a year - on - year decrease of over 2% [1] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is -65 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is -53 yuan/ton, -7 yuan/ton in another record, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke average profit is -105 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke average profit is -12 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream Demand: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, a year - on - year increase of 1.66 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 85.48%, and the daily hot - metal output decreased by 1.49 tons month - on - month to 228.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.53 tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - Coking coal inventory in coal mines decreased by 7.66%, independent coke enterprise coking coal inventory increased by 5.71% to 1132.85 tons, steel mill coking coal inventory slightly increased to 802.2 tons, and port imported coking coal inventory continued to increase. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by nearly 2% month - on - month to 2769.85 tons, lower than the previous year's level [2] News - In 2025, the fiscal deficit ratio was about 4%, up one percentage point from the previous year, and the new government debt scale was 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year. In 2026, the total fiscal deficit, debt, and expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. Five departments including the Ministry of Finance announced a loan interest subsidy policy for small, medium, and micro - enterprises. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that efforts will be made to stabilize the real - estate market this year and support the reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises [2]

Group 1 - The Chinese government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special bonds to support consumption and economic transformation, with 300 billion yuan allocated for consumer subsidies, expected to boost related sales by approximately 2.6 trillion yuan [1] - The government aims to enhance consumption by implementing personal consumption loan and service industry loan interest subsidy policies, as well as supporting new consumption models and international consumption environment [1] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is projected to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with new government debt expected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant rise compared to previous years [3] Group 2 - The government will continue to arrange ultra-long special bonds in 2026 for "two heavy" and "two new" projects, optimizing policies and improving the effectiveness of bond funds [4] - The Ministry of Finance will maintain a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring that total expenditure increases while optimizing structure and improving efficiency [5] - Local government debt risks are gradually being mitigated, with an average interest cost reduction of over 2.5 percentage points after debt replacement [6] Group 3 - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic and electronic products is aimed at promoting efficient resource utilization and addressing "involution" in competition, thereby fostering high-quality economic development [7] - A new policy will provide risk-sharing funds from the central government to support private enterprises and private equity investment institutions in issuing bonds, offering credit support to mitigate investor losses [8] - Preliminary data suggests that the fiscal revenue and expenditure for 2025 may achieve balance, with strong budgetary support for economic and social development [9][10]

Economic Growth - China's Q4 2025 real GDP growth slowed to 4.5%, in line with market expectations, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[2] - Nominal GDP growth slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% in Q4, after two consecutive quarters of decline[2] - Quarterly economic growth rose by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%, slightly better than the market expectation of 1.1%[2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - December retail sales growth continued to decline for seven consecutive months, dropping from 1.3% in November to 0.9% in December, below the market expectation of 1.0%[3] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth fell by 1.2 percentage points to -3.8% in December, worse than the market expectation of -3.1%[4] - Cumulative per capita disposable income growth for urban residents decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, a smaller decline than the real economic growth rate[2] Industrial Production and Exports - Industrial production value year-on-year growth rebounded by 0.4 percentage points to 5.2% in December, exceeding market expectations of 5.0%[5] - December export growth increased from 5.9% in November to 6.6%, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 3.1%[7] - Net exports contributed 1.4% to economic growth in Q4, up from 1.2% in Q3, while investment and consumption contributions declined[2] Employment and Inflation - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in December, better than the market expectation of 5.2%[5] - December CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, driven mainly by increases in food and gold prices[6] Policy Outlook - The focus of policy may need to continue on improving domestic demand, with expectations for additional stimulus measures post the National People's Congress[6] - The central bank is unlikely to implement rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions before the Spring Festival, with such actions potentially delayed until after the National People's Congress[8]

Group 1 - The survey conducted by Securities Times indicates an improvement in economic expectations for China, with "stability" being a frequently mentioned term among economists [1][2] - Over 70% of surveyed economists believe that China's economic growth in the past year met expectations, with 21% stating it exceeded them [2][3] - The "Securities Times Economic Expectation Heat Index" has risen for three consecutive quarters, reflecting a sustained improvement in economic outlook [2] Group 2 - Economists expect the international economic and trade situation to remain stable, with 61% believing its impact on China's economy will be manageable [3] - The primary focus for economic work in the coming year is to expand domestic demand, with 75% of respondents anticipating stabilization or improvement in price levels [3][6] - The majority of respondents (96%) rated the stock market's outlook positively for the first half of 2026, indicating strong confidence in market performance [4] Group 3 - The report suggests that the fiscal deficit rate may have room for increase, with over 60% of respondents expecting it to remain above 4% [6] - Economists recommend implementing more policies to stabilize the real estate market, including the establishment of a national housing acquisition fund and lowering mortgage rates [7] - The overall sentiment is that despite global economic slowdowns, China's growth advantages remain, providing potential for income growth and industrial upgrades [7]

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of China's monetary policy adopting a "small step" approach is high, especially in the face of uncertainties [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Mechanism - Monetary policy generally targets short to medium-term goals and requires a "step-by-step" approach during uncertain times [3]. - The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is more complex than that of fiscal policy, with a longer transmission path [3]. - China's monetary policy transmission mechanism has evolved to include a sequence from policy interest rates (OMO rates) to loan market quotation rates (LPR) and then to actual loan rates [3]. Group 2: Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) and Interest Rates - RRR cuts are preferred over interest rate cuts as they increase the funds available for commercial banks, supporting active fiscal policies [5]. - Since 2016, the RRR has been adjusted downwards 23 times, with a cumulative decrease of 8.5 percentage points for large deposit-taking financial institutions [5]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was 1.42% as of Q3 2025, indicating pressure on banks' profitability [6]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - There is still room for interest rate cuts, especially given the low inflation and high real interest rates in China [8]. - The external environment for interest rate cuts has improved, with the Federal Reserve having cut rates by a total of 75 basis points in 2025, while China's policy rate was only reduced by 10 basis points [8]. - Structural monetary policy tools can be used to lower interest rates, particularly to support technological innovation and weaker economic sectors [8]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Considerations - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, suggesting that the expansionary fiscal policy will continue into 2026 [8]. - It is suggested that China could raise its fiscal deficit ratio to create conditions for more active fiscal policies, diverging from the Maastricht Treaty guideline of a 3% deficit ratio [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's monetary policy is likely to adopt a "small step" approach due to various uncertainties, requiring a cautious and gradual implementation [2] - Monetary policy generally targets short- to medium-term goals and operates indirectly, relying on the cooperation of the private sector, commercial banks, and the entire financial system [2] - The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is more complex than that of fiscal policy, with a longer transmission pathway, making it difficult for the central bank to control every aspect precisely [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is enhancing the role of policy interest rates and utilizing various liquidity support tools to effectively stabilize short-term market fluctuations [2] - A reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is preferred over interest rate cuts, as it increases the funds available for commercial banks to support active fiscal policies [3] - Since 2016, the RRR has been adjusted downwards 23 times, with a cumulative decrease of 8.5 percentage points for large deposit-taking financial institutions [3] Group 3 - There is still room for interest rate cuts, as current low inflation and high real interest rates provide a favorable external environment for such actions [3][4] - Structural monetary policy tools can be used to guide credit structure adjustments, focusing on supporting technological innovation and economically weaker sectors [4] - The central economic work conference in 2025 indicated that the fiscal policy will maintain an expansionary tone, with expectations of a continued increase in the fiscal deficit rate to create conditions for active fiscal policies [4]

Core Viewpoint - The possibility of a "small step" approach in China's monetary policy is significant, especially in the face of uncertainties, requiring a cautious and gradual implementation [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Mechanism - Monetary policy generally targets short to medium-term goals and operates indirectly, relying on the cooperation of the private sector, commercial banks, and the financial system [1] - The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is more complex than that of fiscal policy, with a longer transmission path, exemplified by the mechanism from policy rates to actual loan rates [1] - The toolbox for monetary policy in China is becoming increasingly diverse, with the central bank enhancing the role of policy rates and utilizing various liquidity support tools [1] Group 2: Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rates - The reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is a primary tool for aligning monetary policy with fiscal policy, increasing the funds available for commercial banks to support active fiscal measures [2] - Since 2016, the RRR has been adjusted downwards 23 times, with a cumulative decrease of 8.5 percentage points for large deposit-taking institutions [2] - The net interest margin for commercial banks is at a historical low of 1.42%, indicating pressure on banks, which may explain the preference for RRR cuts over significant interest rate reductions [2] Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - There is still room for interest rate cuts, given the low inflation and high real interest rates in China, alongside a favorable external environment due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cuts [3] - Structural monetary policy tools can be utilized to lower interest rates, particularly to support technological innovation and weaker economic sectors [3] - However, the effectiveness of large-scale interest rate cuts is limited due to low interest elasticity in consumption and investment, with firms focusing more on investment risks and profits [3] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Stance - The fiscal policy in China is expected to remain expansive in 2026, with necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels maintained [3] - There is a suggestion to increase the fiscal deficit ratio in China to create conditions for active fiscal policies, diverging from the EU's standard of a 3% deficit ratio [3]