近期，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称"十五五"规划建议）全文对外公开。其中在部署财 政工作时，要求"增加地方自主财力"。 地方自主财力是一个比较新的说法。去年7月份党的二十届三中全会首次提出了"增加地方自主财力，拓展地方税源，适当扩大地方 税收管理权限"。 那么，究竟什么是地方自主财力？为何要增加地方自主财力？在过去一年多时间里，国家在增加地方自主财力方面又究竟有了哪些 动作？未来还会有哪些改革举措？ 在基层财政收支矛盾不断加大之下，增加地方自主财力正成为新一轮财税改革重点。 地方自主财力增加举措逐步落地 过去业内常见的说法是地方财力、地方可用财力或地方可支配财力，中央提出的"地方自主财力"是一个新说法。 西南财经大学财政税务学院院长李建军教授告诉第一财经，地方财力是地方政府能够运用的全部财政资金总和，而地方自主财力是 地方财力中地方可自主调配的部分，比如增值税等中央与地方共享税种中的地方分成部分，房产税等归属于地方税种，归属于地方 的非税收入，如各类收费、土地出让收入等。 "像中央对地方专项转移支付收入，它属于地方财力，但由于有指定用途，就不属于地方自主财力。中央对地方一 ...

在基层财政收支矛盾不断加大之下，增加地方自主财力正成为新一轮财税改革重点。 近期，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称"十五五"规划建议） 全文对外公开。其中在部署财政工作时，要求"增加地方自主财力"。 地方自主财力是一个比较新的说法。去年7月份党的二十届三中全会首次提出了"增加地方自主财力，拓 展地方税源，适当扩大地方税收管理权限"。 那么，究竟什么是地方自主财力？为何要增加地方自主财力？在过去一年多时间里，国家在增加地方自 主财力方面又究竟有了哪些动作？未来还会有哪些改革举措？ 地方自主财力增加举措逐步落地 过去业内常见的说法是地方财力、地方可用财力或地方可支配财力，中央提出的"地方自主财力"是一个 新说法。 西南财经大学财政税务学院院长李建军教授告诉第一财经，地方财力是地方政府能够运用的全部财政资 金总和，而地方自主财力是地方财力中地方可自主调配的部分，比如增值税等中央与地方共享税种中的 地方分成部分，房产税等归属于地方税种，归属于地方的非税收入，如各类收费、土地出让收入等。 "像中央对地方专项转移支付收入，它属于地方财力，但由于有指定用途，就不属于地方自主财力。中 央对地 ...

Group 1 - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session sets the direction and goals for China's development over the next five years, emphasizing the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" in achieving socialist modernization [1][3][4] - The planning system in China has evolved into a comprehensive framework that includes national, regional, and sectoral plans, reflecting the unique characteristics of Chinese-style modernization [2][6] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical period for consolidating the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and preparing for the "16th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on solidifying the foundation for modernization [3][4] Group 2 - The emphasis on expanding high-level opening-up is a strategic choice to respond to global changes and enhance China's influence in international economic governance [6][7] - Beijing plays a crucial role in the national strategy for high-level opening-up, leveraging its service industry and headquarters economy to become a hub for global resource allocation [8] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the high-quality development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, addressing existing challenges and leveraging its innovative resources [9][10] Group 3 - The cultural development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period focuses on enhancing cultural innovation and addressing contemporary challenges, with an emphasis on integrating cultural resources into urban development [11][12] - The strategic planning for education highlights the importance of cultivating talent and promoting technological innovation as foundational elements for national development [21][22] - The financial and tax reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on optimizing fiscal policies to support economic growth and structural adjustments, ensuring a balance between short-term stability and long-term development [15][16]

Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of China's fiscal policy in the first half of 2025, emphasizing increased investment in social welfare and measures to control local government hidden debts [2][3]. Group 1: Social Welfare Investments - The fiscal policy has increased investment in social welfare, including a 2% rise in basic pension levels for retirees and a 20 yuan increase in the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions [2]. - The central government allocated 1.1 trillion yuan in subsidies to support timely and full payment of basic pension benefits [2]. Group 2: Control of Hidden Debts - The report indicates effective measures to curb new hidden debts, prohibiting government expenditures and investment projects not included in the budget [3]. - A lifetime accountability system for government borrowing has been implemented, along with a mechanism for tracing debt issues, ensuring strict accountability for any new hidden debts discovered [3]. Group 3: Tax Reforms - The report outlines ongoing tax reforms, particularly the adjustment of consumption tax collection to enhance local revenue sources and improve the consumption environment [4]. - The specifics of which tax items will be shifted to the wholesale and retail stages and how the revenue will be distributed between central and local governments are still under observation [4]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report identifies six key tasks for future fiscal policy, including the use of more proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, and further improvement of social welfare [4][5]. - Emphasis will be placed on risk prevention, with continued implementation of a comprehensive debt replacement policy and strict accountability for any new hidden debt behaviors [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the execution of China's fiscal policy in the first half of 2025, highlighting increased investment in people's livelihoods and measures to control local government hidden debts [3][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Finance reported a 2% increase in the basic pension level for retirees and a 20 yuan increase in the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions [3]. - A total of 1.1 trillion yuan was allocated in subsidies to support timely and sufficient payment of basic pension benefits [3]. Group 2: Control of Hidden Debts - The report indicates effective measures to curb new hidden debts, including prohibiting government expenditures and investment projects not included in the budget [4]. - A lifelong accountability system for government borrowing has been implemented, with strict measures to investigate and hold accountable any new hidden debt or false reporting [4]. Group 3: Tax Reform and Local Revenue - The report emphasizes the acceleration of tax reforms, particularly the adjustment of consumption tax collection to enhance local revenue sources and improve the consumption environment [5]. - The specifics of which tax items will be shifted to local collection and how revenues will be distributed between central and local governments remain to be clarified [5]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report outlines six key tasks for future fiscal policy, including the use of more proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, and improvement of people's livelihoods [5]. - Specific measures include providing subsidies for elderly care services and implementing free preschool education and childcare subsidies [5]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue a comprehensive debt management policy while monitoring and addressing new hidden debt behaviors promptly [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a strategic direction for China's economic and social development, emphasizing long-term stability and growth in the capital market, with a focus on digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology [1][25]. Macro Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a crucial phase in achieving socialist modernization by 2035, with a target of doubling GDP per capita compared to 2020 levels, necessitating an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% from 2026 to 2035 [2][3]. Key Changes in Development Environment - Significant changes from the "14th Five-Year Plan" include advancements in technological innovation, adjustments in financial cycles, and increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a greater emphasis on domestic demand and a more confident approach to opening up [3][4]. Industrial and Technological Focus - The plan prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system, enhancing efficiency and security in supply chains, and emphasizes the importance of traditional industries while fostering emerging sectors such as renewable energy and quantum technology [4][5][20]. Consumer and Demand-Side Policies - The plan aims to boost consumer spending through supply-side and demand-side measures, including improving the quality of consumer goods and services, enhancing employment and income distribution, and removing unreasonable consumption restrictions [7][9][10]. Open Economy Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes proactive and autonomous opening up, with a focus on expanding market access, promoting balanced trade development, and enhancing financial openness to improve China's position in the global financial system [11][12][13]. Green Transition and Carbon Goals - The plan identifies the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as critical for achieving carbon peak goals, with a focus on controlling coal and oil consumption, implementing dual control of carbon emissions, and promoting green consumption [15][16][20]. Fiscal and Tax Reforms - Fiscal reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing sustainability and the effectiveness of active fiscal policies, with an emphasis on improving the tax system and increasing public service spending to support consumption [17][18][22]. Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to exhibit a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by government emphasis on market development and favorable economic conditions [25][26]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors for investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" include digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology, with specific focus areas such as AI, 6G, and innovative healthcare solutions [26].

Macro Perspective - The "15th Five-Year Plan" serves as a crucial transitional phase towards achieving the 2035 modernization goals, with a target GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% annually from 2026 to 2035 to double the economic output compared to 2020 levels [3][4] - The new environment presents several changes, including breakthroughs in technological innovation, a downward adjustment in financial cycles, and increased geopolitical conflicts, necessitating a focus on supply-side optimization and domestic demand [4][5] Technological Innovation and Industrial Development - The construction of a modern industrial system is emphasized as the material and technical foundation for Chinese-style modernization, with a focus on enhancing efficiency and security within the industrial chain [5][6] - The plan highlights the importance of traditional industries while also fostering emerging sectors such as new energy, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing, with specific attention to future industries like quantum technology and hydrogen energy [6][7] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The plan aims to significantly increase the resident consumption rate, focusing on both supply-side and demand-side measures to stimulate consumption [9][10] - Key policies include improving the consumption system, enhancing infrastructure for consumer services, and expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services [9][10] Open Economy and International Cooperation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a more proactive and autonomous approach to opening up the economy, with a focus on expanding market access and promoting balanced trade development [12][13] - Financial openness is highlighted as a critical area, with a goal to enhance the international status of the Chinese currency and improve the capital account [13][14] Green Transition and Carbon Neutrality - The plan identifies the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as critical for achieving carbon peak goals, with a focus on controlling coal and oil consumption and implementing a dual control system for carbon emissions [16][17] - The expansion of the national carbon market and promotion of green consumption are also key components of the strategy [17][18] Fiscal and Tax Reforms - Fiscal reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing sustainability and the effectiveness of active fiscal policies, including optimizing the tax structure and increasing public service spending [18][19] - The plan aims to improve the social security system and reduce reliance on general budget subsidies, thereby enhancing fiscal sustainability [19][20] Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to exhibit a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by government emphasis on market development and favorable economic conditions [37] - Key sectors to watch include digital technology, high-end manufacturing, and consumer sectors, with a focus on innovation and quality upgrades [38]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth, with a focus on precision and efficiency in implementation [1][2][8]. Fiscal Policy Support for Economic Development - The necessity for enhanced fiscal policy support during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, particularly to maintain an average annual GDP growth rate of at least 4.5% to achieve long-term strategic goals by 2035 [2][3]. - The fiscal policy aims to address challenges such as population decline, economic restructuring, and external pressures by increasing spending and optimizing expenditure [2][3]. Investment in Key Areas - Significant investment is required in critical sectors such as modern industrial systems, technological self-reliance, and green transformation, which necessitates substantial public investment led by fiscal policy [3][4]. - Fiscal funding is essential to fill investment gaps and leverage private capital through risk-sharing mechanisms [3]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, requiring fiscal measures to enhance consumer confidence and investment willingness [4][5]. - Fiscal policy will focus on optimizing spending and improving social security to stabilize expectations and promote a dynamic balance between supply and demand [4]. Promoting Social Equity - The plan aims to advance common prosperity through fiscal measures that address income distribution and enhance social welfare systems [5][6]. - Fiscal policy will play a crucial role in reducing disparities and ensuring equitable resource allocation [5]. Addressing Uncertainties - The fiscal policy must maintain necessary spending levels to counteract increasing uncertainties and risks, including economic downturns and external shocks [6][7]. - A proactive fiscal approach is essential to provide a stable foundation for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][7]. Focus Areas for Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain a proactive stance, with an expected deficit rate of 3.8% to 4.0%, potentially rising to over 4.2% during significant shocks [8][9]. - Annual issuance of long-term special bonds is projected at around 1.5 trillion yuan, targeting key areas such as technological innovation and social welfare [9][10]. Deepening Fiscal and Tax Reforms - The plan includes reforms to enhance fiscal sustainability and clarify the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [10][11]. - Measures will be taken to improve local tax systems and reduce reliance on land finance, while also addressing local government debt issues [10][11]. Managing Local Government Debt - The strategy outlines a phased approach to resolving existing local government debt, with an annual issuance of special bonds estimated between 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan [11]. - Efforts will focus on categorizing and managing debt risks while enhancing local fiscal capabilities [11].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The records primarily discuss the Chinese economy and its development strategies, particularly focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the implications for various sectors including technology, real estate, and finance. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-China Relations and Market Impact** The easing of US-China trade tensions and expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve have led to a decrease in risk aversion, impacting global market performance positively [2][3]. 2. **Gold Price Fluctuations** Gold prices surged from $3,800 to over $4,200 in early October but experienced a significant correction due to improved market sentiment following the easing of geopolitical tensions and changing monetary policy expectations [3]. 3. **Focus on High-Quality Development** The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes "high-quality" and "technology" as dual drivers for economic growth, shifting the focus from rapid growth to sustainable and quality-driven development [1][4]. 4. **Technological Innovation** The plan highlights the importance of technological advancement and original innovation to secure a competitive edge in the global market, particularly in response to US-China technological competition [5][6][14]. 5. **Consumer and Real Estate Policies** The Chinese government aims to stimulate domestic demand without large-scale fiscal stimulus, focusing instead on improving economic growth and income levels to enhance consumer confidence. In real estate, the focus will shift from demand constraints to supply adjustments to meet housing quality expectations [8][10]. 6. **Fiscal and Tax Reforms** Future fiscal reforms will aim to unify economic policy frameworks, enhance central government authority, and curb ineffective local government financing, promoting a balanced regional economic development [9][19]. 7. **Debt Management** The records indicate a growing concern over local government debt, with strategies being developed to address existing liabilities while ensuring high-quality development in real estate [19]. 8. **Monetary Policy Direction** The monetary policy is expected to shift from a focus on marketization of interest and exchange rates to stabilizing markets and supporting the real economy, aligning with the strategic goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [20][24]. 9. **Investment in Strategic Areas** Continued investment in national strategic sectors is emphasized to enhance competitiveness and achieve technological breakthroughs, particularly in light of the complex international environment [17][24]. Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Economic Goals** By 2035, China aims to achieve a per capita GDP level comparable to that of moderately developed countries, necessitating sustained high-quality growth across its vast population [7]. 2. **Adjustment of Growth Drivers** The records suggest a flexible approach to growth drivers, alternating between domestic and external demand based on prevailing economic conditions [16][22]. 3. **Social Stability and Cohesion** Emphasizing social welfare and reducing burdens on citizens is seen as crucial for maintaining social stability amid external pressures and internal challenges [17]. 4. **Reform Areas** Key reform areas include demographic changes, foreign relations, market governance, and income distribution, with a focus on promoting common prosperity [21]. This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical insights and strategic directions outlined in the conference call records, reflecting the evolving landscape of the Chinese economy and its policy frameworks.

Core Points - The recent tax reform focuses on standardizing tax incentives, accelerating the adjustment of VAT policies for various industries [1] - The Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Taxation Administration have announced the cancellation or adjustment of several VAT incentives [1] Wind Power Industry - The VAT exemption policy for onshore wind power, which allowed a 50% immediate refund since July 2015, will be abolished starting November 1, 2023 [2] - From November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, a 50% immediate refund policy will be retained for offshore wind power [2] - The change indicates that onshore wind technology is mature and competitive, while offshore wind still requires support due to higher costs and challenges [2] Nuclear Power Industry - The VAT policy for nuclear power, which provided a phased refund over 15 years, will no longer apply to new projects approved after November 1, 2025 [3][4] - Existing projects will continue to benefit from the previous VAT policies until their respective deadlines [4] - This shift reflects a recognition that the nuclear power sector can now compete on a more equal footing with other energy sources [4] Financing Leasing Industry - The VAT refund policy for financing leasing businesses, which allowed refunds for tax burdens exceeding 3%, will be abolished on November 1, 2023 [5][6] Aircraft Maintenance and Other Industries - The VAT exemption for aircraft maintenance services, which allowed refunds for tax burdens exceeding 6%, will be canceled starting November 1, 2023 [7] - Other industries affected include diamond trading, new wall materials, and coalbed methane extraction, with various VAT incentives being removed [7][8] Overall Tax Policy Context - The cancellation of these tax incentives aligns with the broader goal of standardizing tax policies and increasing fiscal revenue amid economic challenges [8] - The recent adjustments are part of the implementation of the tax law principle and aim to enhance market fairness and reduce tax evasion [8] - Fiscal data shows a slight increase in public budget revenue but a decline in government fund budget revenue, highlighting the need for improved tax policy [9]