Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium, a leading lithium mining company, has been indicted for insider trading and the case has been sent to the prosecution for review [1] - Wenkang Development announced a major asset restructuring plan involving the acquisition of stakes in Wenkang Mining and Luzhong Mining from its controlling shareholder [2] - Huali Co., a leader in decorative composite materials, has terminated its agreement to acquire a 51% stake in Zhongke Huilian Technology due to a lack of consensus on key transaction terms [3] Group 2 - Haizhi Technology has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the second time, following a previous application that expired; the company reported continuous losses from 2022 to 2025 [4] - SMIC announced a significant acquisition plan to purchase a 49% stake in SMIC North from five shareholders for a total of 406.01 billion yuan [5] - Several foreign investment institutions have expressed optimism about the Chinese market, citing abundant liquidity, stronger policy support, and attractive valuations as factors contributing to an "upward opportunity period" for Chinese assets in 2026 [6] Group 3 - Multiple companies in the lithium iron phosphate industry have announced production cuts, with reductions ranging from 35% to 50% scheduled for January 2026 [8][26] - Public funds in China have reached a record high of 37.02 trillion yuan, marking the first time the total scale has surpassed this threshold [11][29] - Various public fund institutions have held investment strategy meetings for 2026, with a consensus that technology will remain a core investment theme alongside opportunities in consumer recovery and overseas expansion [17][34] Group 4 - The recent increase in margin requirements for precious metals futures by the CME Group has led to a decline in international metal prices, with gold futures dropping below $4,500 per ounce [10][28] - The Chinese government is set to implement tax reforms aimed at addressing "tax revenue gaps" and standardizing tax incentives to foster a fair market environment [12][30] - A draft law on state-owned assets is open for public consultation, aiming to establish a comprehensive governance system for state assets to prevent loss and enhance management [13][31] Group 5 - 29 A-share companies have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with 19 companies expecting profit increases, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming fiscal year [14][32] - The Porsche dealership network in China is facing challenges, with reports of dealers disappearing and leaving showrooms empty, indicating potential issues within the distribution system [18][35]

12月3日，第十届智通财经资本市场年会在深圳南山召开。摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席会议，分享了对 2026- 2027 年全球经济资本市场及中国宏观经济的展望。 他表示，尽管短期宏观挑战仍存，但凭借完整的 AI 产业链优势，中国已成为全球资本多元化配置的必然选择。展望未来两 年，中国将在 "科技为纲、兼顾消费" 的框架下，通过 "按揭贴息" 等政策推动房地产止跌企稳，同步启动税制优化、社保投 入等财税改革，以释放内需、促进消费。 以下为邢自强先生演讲实录： 非常荣幸参加智通财经第十周年年会。今天，我愿简要分享我们新近完成的 2026-2027 年全球经济资本市场及中国宏观经济 展望，抛砖引玉，供各位参考。 Part.01 市场回暖的核心逻辑：三大关键转变 过去一年半，中国资本市场呈现新气象、迈上新台阶。这一变化的核心，源于 2024 年 9 月 24 日以来中国实现的三大转变 —— 政策之变、企业之变与资金之变。 过去五年，中国企业界经历了"严寒大考"：国内房地产调整导致传统需求疲软，海外地缘政治变化与中美关系博弈带来外部 压力。但在这一轮 "严寒大考" 中，多数企业并未停滞退缩，而是厚积薄发、坚韧不 ...

2025.12. 07 本文字数：4020，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 2025年即将收尾，史上首次"更加积极"财政政策已然落地，推动了今年经济平稳运行。而明年财政 政策动向备受关注。 中央"十五五"规划建议已经要求未来五年"发挥积极财政政策作用"，2026年作为"十五五"规划第一 年，明年继续实施积极财政政策并无悬念。 多位接受第一财经采访的专家预计，综合考量明年经济社会形势，预计明年中国将继续实施扩张性财 政政策，也就是积极财政政策，且政策口径维持"更加积极"。具体来看，明年财政赤字率将不会低 于2025年的4%，并继续适度增加发行超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等，使得明年新增政府 债务规模超过2025年的约12万亿元，比如可能在13万亿元至16万亿元。此举将扩大财政支出，比 如全国一般公共预算支出明年有望超过30万亿元，发挥财政政策稳增长、扩内需、惠民生的重要作 用。 当然除了财政政策总量上的扩张，专家普遍认为更重要的是优化财政支出结构，财政资金更加倾向 于"投资于人"，注重"惠民生和促消费"，使得投资与消费并重，更好地发挥财政资金使用效益，并 加快推进财税改革，深化零基预算改革， ...

为稳经济，明年财政政策仍需更加积极，加大发债扩大支出。 2025年即将收尾，史上首次"更加积极"财政政策已然落地，推动了今年经济平稳运行。而明年财政政策 动向备受关注。 中央"十五五"规划建议已经要求未来五年"发挥积极财政政策作用"，2026年作为"十五五"规划第一年， 明年继续实施积极财政政策并无悬念。 当然除了财政政策总量上的扩张，专家普遍认为更重要的是优化财政支出结构，财政资金更加倾向 于"投资于人"，注重"惠民生和促消费"，使得投资与消费并重，更好地发挥财政资金使用效益，并加快 推进财税改革，深化零基预算改革，增加地方自主财力等。 明年财政政策延续"更加积极" 复杂的内外部形势之下，明年经济增长依然承压，这就必然要求宏观政策发力，其中财政政策备受期 待。 中国自2008年国际金融危机之后，就一直采取积极财政政策，也就是扩张性财政政策，即在经济增长乏 力时，通过增加支出、扩大赤字、发行政府债券、增加转移支付等手段，刺激总需求，促进经济复苏和 增长的宏观调控政策。 其中2025年中央首次定调财政政策"更加积极"，而这就体现在财政赤字率从2024年的3%提高至4%的历 史高位，包括超长期特别国债、专项债等新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes the need to increase local fiscal autonomy as a key focus of the new round of fiscal and tax reforms, aiming to address the growing financial imbalances at the grassroots level [2][4]. Summary by Sections Definition and Importance of Local Fiscal Autonomy - Local fiscal autonomy refers to the portion of local government finances that can be independently allocated and managed, including shared tax revenues and local taxes [2][3]. - The increase in local fiscal autonomy is crucial for optimizing intergovernmental revenue distribution and alleviating financial pressures faced by local governments [4]. Current Financial Situation of Local Governments - Local governments are experiencing a significant imbalance between revenue and expenditure, with public budget revenues around 10.5 trillion yuan, a 2.1% increase, while expenditures reached approximately 19.1 trillion yuan, a 1.2% increase [5]. - The reliance on central government transfers and debt to cover budget shortfalls highlights the urgent need for reform [5]. Key Measures to Enhance Local Fiscal Autonomy - The government is pushing for reforms such as shifting certain consumption tax collection responsibilities to local governments, which is expected to significantly increase local fiscal revenues [6]. - The recent amendment to the Environmental Protection Tax Law includes new taxable items, although its impact on local fiscal autonomy is considered limited [7]. Regional Initiatives - Some provinces, like Guangdong, are implementing measures to increase fiscal resources at the municipal level by adjusting revenue-sharing ratios, which aims to alleviate financial pressures on local governments [8]. Future Directions for Reform - The "15th Five-Year Plan" anticipates the acceleration of various measures to enhance local fiscal autonomy, including optimizing shared tax distribution and establishing local additional taxes [9][10]. - Experts suggest that increasing the local share of corporate and personal income taxes could further enhance local fiscal autonomy and improve local governance [10][11]. Non-Tax Revenue Strategies - Local governments are also focusing on reforming state-owned assets management to boost non-tax revenues, with some regions reporting significant increases in income from state resources [12].

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes the need to increase local fiscal autonomy as a key focus of the new round of fiscal and tax reforms, aiming to address the growing financial imbalances at the grassroots level [1][3]. Summary by Sections Definition and Importance of Local Fiscal Autonomy - Local fiscal autonomy refers to the portion of local government finances that can be independently allocated, including shared tax revenues and local taxes [1][2]. - The core essence of increasing local fiscal autonomy is to enhance the "autonomy" of local governments in managing their finances [2]. Reasons for Increasing Local Fiscal Autonomy - The need arises from the optimization of intergovernmental revenue distribution, as local governments struggle to meet expenditure needs [3]. - Recent years have seen a decline in local fiscal revenues while mandatory expenditures continue to rise, leading to significant financial pressures on local governments [3]. Current Measures and Future Reforms - The government is pushing for reforms to increase local tax revenues, including the transfer of certain consumption tax collection responsibilities to local governments [4][7]. - The adjustment of revenue-sharing ratios between central and local governments is also being considered to enhance local fiscal autonomy [8][9]. Specific Initiatives - The recent reform in Guangdong province aims to increase fiscal resources at the municipal and county levels, addressing the financial pressures faced by local governments [6]. - The merging of various local taxes into a unified "local additional tax" is proposed to enhance local governments' ability to set tax rates according to local needs [9]. Fiscal Data and Trends - In the first ten months of this year, local government revenues were approximately 10.5 trillion yuan, with expenditures reaching about 19.1 trillion yuan, indicating a significant fiscal gap [3]. - The local government fund budget revenue saw a decline of 3.3%, while expenditures increased by 7.3%, highlighting the ongoing fiscal challenges [3]. Future Focus Areas - Key areas for future reforms include the optimization of shared tax ratios and the establishment of local additional taxes, which are expected to be focal points in enhancing local fiscal autonomy [7][8].

Group 1 - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session sets the direction and goals for China's development over the next five years, emphasizing the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" in achieving socialist modernization [1][3][4] - The planning system in China has evolved into a comprehensive framework that includes national, regional, and sectoral plans, reflecting the unique characteristics of Chinese-style modernization [2][6] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical period for consolidating the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and preparing for the "16th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on solidifying the foundation for modernization [3][4] Group 2 - The emphasis on expanding high-level opening-up is a strategic choice to respond to global changes and enhance China's influence in international economic governance [6][7] - Beijing plays a crucial role in the national strategy for high-level opening-up, leveraging its service industry and headquarters economy to become a hub for global resource allocation [8] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the high-quality development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, addressing existing challenges and leveraging its innovative resources [9][10] Group 3 - The cultural development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period focuses on enhancing cultural innovation and addressing contemporary challenges, with an emphasis on integrating cultural resources into urban development [11][12] - The strategic planning for education highlights the importance of cultivating talent and promoting technological innovation as foundational elements for national development [21][22] - The financial and tax reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on optimizing fiscal policies to support economic growth and structural adjustments, ensuring a balance between short-term stability and long-term development [15][16]

Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of China's fiscal policy in the first half of 2025, emphasizing increased investment in social welfare and measures to control local government hidden debts [2][3]. Group 1: Social Welfare Investments - The fiscal policy has increased investment in social welfare, including a 2% rise in basic pension levels for retirees and a 20 yuan increase in the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions [2]. - The central government allocated 1.1 trillion yuan in subsidies to support timely and full payment of basic pension benefits [2]. Group 2: Control of Hidden Debts - The report indicates effective measures to curb new hidden debts, prohibiting government expenditures and investment projects not included in the budget [3]. - A lifetime accountability system for government borrowing has been implemented, along with a mechanism for tracing debt issues, ensuring strict accountability for any new hidden debts discovered [3]. Group 3: Tax Reforms - The report outlines ongoing tax reforms, particularly the adjustment of consumption tax collection to enhance local revenue sources and improve the consumption environment [4]. - The specifics of which tax items will be shifted to the wholesale and retail stages and how the revenue will be distributed between central and local governments are still under observation [4]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report identifies six key tasks for future fiscal policy, including the use of more proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, and further improvement of social welfare [4][5]. - Emphasis will be placed on risk prevention, with continued implementation of a comprehensive debt replacement policy and strict accountability for any new hidden debt behaviors [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the execution of China's fiscal policy in the first half of 2025, highlighting increased investment in people's livelihoods and measures to control local government hidden debts [3][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Finance reported a 2% increase in the basic pension level for retirees and a 20 yuan increase in the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions [3]. - A total of 1.1 trillion yuan was allocated in subsidies to support timely and sufficient payment of basic pension benefits [3]. Group 2: Control of Hidden Debts - The report indicates effective measures to curb new hidden debts, including prohibiting government expenditures and investment projects not included in the budget [4]. - A lifelong accountability system for government borrowing has been implemented, with strict measures to investigate and hold accountable any new hidden debt or false reporting [4]. Group 3: Tax Reform and Local Revenue - The report emphasizes the acceleration of tax reforms, particularly the adjustment of consumption tax collection to enhance local revenue sources and improve the consumption environment [5]. - The specifics of which tax items will be shifted to local collection and how revenues will be distributed between central and local governments remain to be clarified [5]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report outlines six key tasks for future fiscal policy, including the use of more proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, and improvement of people's livelihoods [5]. - Specific measures include providing subsidies for elderly care services and implementing free preschool education and childcare subsidies [5]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue a comprehensive debt management policy while monitoring and addressing new hidden debt behaviors promptly [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a strategic direction for China's economic and social development, emphasizing long-term stability and growth in the capital market, with a focus on digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology [1][25]. Macro Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a crucial phase in achieving socialist modernization by 2035, with a target of doubling GDP per capita compared to 2020 levels, necessitating an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% from 2026 to 2035 [2][3]. Key Changes in Development Environment - Significant changes from the "14th Five-Year Plan" include advancements in technological innovation, adjustments in financial cycles, and increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a greater emphasis on domestic demand and a more confident approach to opening up [3][4]. Industrial and Technological Focus - The plan prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system, enhancing efficiency and security in supply chains, and emphasizes the importance of traditional industries while fostering emerging sectors such as renewable energy and quantum technology [4][5][20]. Consumer and Demand-Side Policies - The plan aims to boost consumer spending through supply-side and demand-side measures, including improving the quality of consumer goods and services, enhancing employment and income distribution, and removing unreasonable consumption restrictions [7][9][10]. Open Economy Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes proactive and autonomous opening up, with a focus on expanding market access, promoting balanced trade development, and enhancing financial openness to improve China's position in the global financial system [11][12][13]. Green Transition and Carbon Goals - The plan identifies the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as critical for achieving carbon peak goals, with a focus on controlling coal and oil consumption, implementing dual control of carbon emissions, and promoting green consumption [15][16][20]. Fiscal and Tax Reforms - Fiscal reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing sustainability and the effectiveness of active fiscal policies, with an emphasis on improving the tax system and increasing public service spending to support consumption [17][18][22]. Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to exhibit a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by government emphasis on market development and favorable economic conditions [25][26]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors for investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" include digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology, with specific focus areas such as AI, 6G, and innovative healthcare solutions [26].