Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The combination of anti - involution policies and the new mining law has driven the bottom - up rebound of lithium carbonate prices, but the price spread still shows a back structure. Short - term price surges are mainly influenced by market sentiment and capital. After the exchange restricted the opening of lithium carbonate futures positions, the bulls retreated significantly. The prices of anti - involution commodities will face corrections, and price volatility will remain high. Considering the supply surplus, the price center of lithium carbonate is expected to be between 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. If the production of Yichun lithium mines is restricted, the price center may rise to 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [1][21]. Summary by Section 1. Anti - involution + New Mining Law Drives Price Rebound - Timeline of the market: On July 1st, the Central Financial and Economic Commission signaled national anti - involution policies, boosting lithium carbonate prices. On July 14th, a rumor about the verification of mining rights in Yichun led to a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices due to capital concentration. In mid - July, there was a certain short - squeeze sentiment in the market. On July 15th, the new export restrictions on battery and lithium extraction technologies increased the overseas production threshold. On July 17th, Zangge Lithium Industry's suspension of production caused a sharp rise in lithium carbonate futures. On July 21st, Jiangte's production halt and concerns about mining licenses led to supply contraction expectations. On July 23rd and 25th, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules and restricted daily opening positions to curb speculation [6][7][8]. 2. Impact of Anti - involution - Since mid - 2024, especially in 2025, anti - involution has become a major supply - side policy. The anti - involution policy helps to eliminate inefficient production capacity, slow down the release of new capacity, and optimize the supply - side structure, which is conducive to stabilizing market prices in the long run. The draft amendment to the Price Law provides a legal basis for anti - involution price work. Based on production costs, a price range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton for lithium carbonate can meet the requirements of anti - involution [9][10]. 3. Impact of the New Mining Law - **New Law Highlights**: The new mining law includes 10 major highlights, such as ensuring national mineral resource security, promoting competitive transfer of mining rights, separating property rights registration from exploration and mining permits, implementing a "direct - access" system for exploration and mining, protecting the legitimate rights and interests of mining right holders, etc. Mines included in the strategic catalog will receive policy support [13][14][15]. - **Impact on the Supply Side**: Zangge Lithium Industry's suspension of production has little impact on the annual output. The market has expectations of supply contraction due to issues such as mining license renewals, which support the rise of lithium carbonate futures prices. However, the high inventory (about 1.5 times the monthly output) restricts price increases [17][18]. 4. Future Trend Outlook - In the short term, price volatility will remain high, and it is not recommended to chase up or sell short unilaterally. Instead, investors can use long straddle option combinations. In the short term, attention should be paid to the renewal of Ningde Jianxiawo's mining license on August 9th, the submission of resource reserve reports by 8 mines in Yichun on September 30th, and the government's mining exploration progress. Considering supply surplus, the price center is expected to be 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. In September, factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, China's policy implementation, demand front - loading in the fourth quarter, and increased production costs due to the new mining law will affect prices. If Yichun's lithium mine production is restricted, the price center may rise to 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [21].