华源证券发布研报称，维持华润电力(00836)"买入"评级。华润电力2025年前三季度受益于煤价高位回 落，火电子公司业绩实现高增长。尽管2026年因年度电价下滑与电力现货市场推行等因素，但公司凭 借"重负荷"开发策略、优秀运营能力及新能源机组投产，有望增强业绩韧性。同时，集团"十五五"强调 高质量发展，新能源业务分拆上市如成功，将显著缓解资本压力，支撑长期转型。 在电力供需边际宽松、煤价下跌(2025年)的情况下，预计多省2026年度电价有所下滑，同时年度交易比 例大幅下降。除以上合理的市场化因素，2026年度交易电价的下滑或与1)容量电价提升，2)现货市场的 推广，3)售电公司的过度竞争三方面非常态因素有关。 在理性与非理性的交织下，2026年年度电价获得一个并不乐观的结果，预计在2026年煤价无较大下降空 间的情况下，点火价差的下降或致火电利润承压。同时，即便136号文已对存量新能源提供较多保护， 但在电力现货市场中，其交易电价与弃电量仍将迎来大考。该行认为，公司历史上"重负荷"的开发战略 或为其新能源入市提供相对优势。2026年或为电力市场最为混沌的一年，公司优秀的管理机制与运营能 力或是其穿越周期的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huayuan Securities maintains a "buy" rating for China Resources Power (00836), highlighting strong performance growth in the first three quarters of 2025 due to a decline in coal prices, despite anticipated challenges in 2026 from falling annual electricity prices and the implementation of the electricity spot market [1] Group 1: Performance and Growth - The company's subsidiary, China Resources Power Investment Co., reported a 31.71% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, significantly up from a 3.99% growth in the first half of 2025 [1] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 77.89%, driven by a 4.7% year-on-year increase in electricity sales from thermal power [1][2] - The average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (5500 kcal) in 2025 is expected to be 697 RMB/ton, down 158 RMB/ton or 18% year-on-year, contributing to stable annual performance [2] Group 2: Future Outlook and Strategy - The company anticipates a challenging year in 2026 due to expected declines in annual electricity prices and increased competition in the electricity market, influenced by factors such as capacity price increases and the promotion of the spot market [3] - The company’s historical "heavy load" development strategy is expected to provide a relative advantage for its new energy market entry, which is crucial for navigating the anticipated market chaos in 2026 [3] - The company aims to add 10 GW of new energy capacity in 2025, with 7 GW of new coal power rights, enhancing its resilience during industry downturns [4] - The successful spin-off of the new energy business for listing is projected to raise 24.5 billion RMB, significantly alleviating capital expenditure pressures for China Resources Power [4]