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华润电力(00836):业绩低于预期,可再生能源利润增长
HTSC· 2025-08-22 07:50
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 25.49 [2][9]. Core Views - The company's 1H25 performance showed a revenue decline of 1.7% year-on-year to HKD 50.267 billion, and a net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.9% to HKD 7.872 billion, which was below expectations [6]. - The renewable energy segment's core profit increased by 1.5% year-on-year to HKD 5.637 billion, indicating growth potential despite challenges in the thermal power sector [6][8]. - The company aims to add 10GW of new renewable energy capacity in 2025, with 4.8GW already connected to the grid in 1H25 [6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: HKD 105.284 billion - 2025E: HKD 102.846 billion - 2026E: HKD 110.355 billion - 2027E: HKD 112.074 billion [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2024: HKD 14.388 billion - 2025E: HKD 12.507 billion - 2026E: HKD 13.430 billion - 2027E: HKD 13.818 billion [5]. - The company’s EPS (Earnings Per Share) for 2025E is projected at HKD 2.42, with a PE ratio of 7.66 [5]. Operational Insights - The core profit from the thermal power business decreased by 2.7% to HKD 2.641 billion in 1H25, while the pure thermal power business (excluding coal) saw a core profit increase of 20.6% to HKD 2.788 billion [7]. - The average utilization hours for wind power increased by 3.7% to 1268 hours, outperforming the national average [8]. - The company’s coal power generation price (excluding tax) decreased by 2.55 cents per kWh to HKD 0.3912 per kWh, while the unit fuel cost dropped by 3.52 cents per kWh to HKD 0.2413 per kWh [7]. Valuation Metrics - The target market capitalization is set at HKD 131.97 billion, reflecting a 25% discount to account for the potential impact of the renewable energy spin-off [9]. - The company’s PB (Price to Book) ratio for 2025E is estimated at 0.82, while the PE ratio is projected at 17.4x [9].