专题：北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 新时代、新基金、新价值 换季是生活的自然切换 或许也是投资的机会窗口 顺着季节变换的脉络捕捉行业趋势 让基金配置跟上换季的节奏~ 消费板块：季节轮转间，激活消费新势能 进入十月，气温渐凉推动消费者需求"换季"。在政策发力与"金九银十"消费热潮的推动下，消费市场活 力正加速释放。 消费增长韧性凸显 今年以来，各项提振消费政策落地显效，消费市场整体保持稳健增长态势。今年1-7月，社会消费品零 售总额同比增长4.8%，其中餐饮收入同比增长3.8%、商品零售额同比增长4.9%。 局，《2025年7月份社会消费品零售总额增长3.7%》，截至2025.8.15。 "换季经济"升温 换季时节，"换季经济"升温。服装店里，轻盈的夏装逐渐让位于各式秋装；季节转换期间，皮肤敏感、 干燥问题增多，保湿、修复类护肤品关注度提升；食品饮料领域，热咖啡、养生茶饮、火锅等重回消 费"C位"。 消费市场迎多重利好 自9月1日起，《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》正式实施，降低消费信贷成本，叠加"金九银 十"传统旺季，消费市场增长空间有望进一步打开。 医疗板块：季节交替时，健康赛道迎布局窗口 "一场秋雨 ...

回顾近期板块走势，风电设备板块自今年4月9日触及年内低点后，便开启持续走高模式，截至目前，该板块年内累计上涨幅度已接近60%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 雅跌幅√ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00527 | 瑞风新能源 | 0.810 | +0.060 | 8.00% | | 00658 | 中国高速传动 | 1.760 | +0.110 | 6.67% | | 02208 | 金风科技 | 13.420 | +0.590 | 4.60% | | 00916 | 龙源电力 | 7.960 | +0.220 | 2.84% | | 01072 | 东方电气 | 16.120 | +0.400 | 2.54% | | 00579 | 京能清洁能源 | 2.440 | +0.040 | 1.67% | | 00956 | 新天绿色能源 | 4.280 | +0.070 | 1.66% | | 01798 | 大唐新能源 | 2.650 | +0.030 | 同同能够。 | A股市场上，风电设备板块领涨态势显著。截至发稿，威力传动20CM涨停，吉鑫科技 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-09-25 关注电力行业新能源装机推进 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）9月24日，国家主席习近平在联合国气候变化峰会发表视频致辞。习近平宣布中国新一轮国家自主 贡献：到2035年，中国全经济范围温室气体净排放量比峰值下降7%-10%，力争做得更好。非化石能源消费占能源 消费总量的比重达到30%以上，风电和太阳能发电总装机容量达到2020年的6倍以上、力争达到36亿千瓦，森林蓄 积量达到240亿立方米以上，新能源汽车成为新销售车辆的主流，全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖主要高排放行业，气 候适应型社会基本建成。 服务行业： 1）商务部等9部门印发《关于促进服务出口的若干政策措施》，包含13项具体措施，旨在推动服务贸 易高质量发展。政策措施包括用好用足中央和地方现有资金渠道支持服务出口，增强服务贸易创新发展引导基金 撬动作用，优化服务出口零税率申报程序，加大出口信用保险支持力度等。其中提到，支持在上海自贸试验区临 港新片区、海南自由贸易港等有条件的地区开展国际数据服务业务。适应服务贸易新业态新模式发展需要，支持 在自贸试验区、海南自由贸易港、国家服务业扩大开放综合试点示范地区等建立国际数据中心和云 ...

Summary of Guodian Power's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Guodian Power - **Industry**: Power Generation, specifically focusing on coal, hydro, and renewable energy Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Market Position - In early 2022, Guodian Power benefited from high coal prices due to long-term coal agreements, leading to significant excess returns. However, by the end of 2022, falling coal prices reduced the elasticity of thermal power operations, causing excess returns to converge [2][3] - The company's asset structure is balanced, comprising thermal, hydro, and renewable energy, which mitigates the impact of coal price fluctuations. Guodian's large thermal power units have a coal consumption rate approximately 10% lower than the industry average [2][8] - Guodian Power's stock performance since 2022 has outperformed comparable state-owned enterprises, attributed to an increase in renewable energy installation targets from 15 million kW to over 30 million kW, which spurred a significant market reaction [3][5] Future Growth and Development - The commissioning of the Shuangjiangkou Reservoir is expected to enhance Guodian's hydroelectric pricing and utilization hours, potentially generating an additional revenue of approximately 600 million yuan from 3 billion kWh of electricity [4][20] - Guodian Power plans to expand its renewable energy capacity significantly, with a target of 30 million kW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which is anticipated to improve cash flow and stabilize dividend expectations [21] - The company is expected to maintain stable profitability, particularly in the second half of the year when the advantages of long-term coal contracts are expected to re-emerge [12] Asset Optimization and Cost Control - Guodian Power has been actively optimizing its thermal power assets by divesting underperforming assets and increasing the proportion of high-quality resources, which has improved overall asset quality and reduced impairment losses [9][12] - The utilization hours for Guodian's thermal power operations are projected to exceed 5,000 hours in 2024, significantly higher than the national average of under 4,500 hours, showcasing strong operational efficiency [10][12] Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics - The hydroelectric market in Sichuan is competitive, but the commissioning of the Shuangjiangkou Reservoir is expected to improve Guodian's pricing power and operational efficiency [18][20] - The company’s net profit is currently around 900 million yuan, with the Dadu River contributing approximately 700 million yuan. The additional electricity generated from new projects is expected to significantly enhance profitability [19][20] Investment Outlook - Guodian Power's fundamentals are in a continuous recovery phase, with stable dividend expectations and growth in scarce market segments making it an attractive investment opportunity [22] - Despite a decline in profitability in 2025 due to a high base effect from asset sales in 2024, the company is still showing growth in its core operations [22] Additional Important Insights - The company’s ability to maintain a high return on equity (ROE) and stable profitability in the thermal power sector is noteworthy, especially in the context of fluctuating coal prices [15][16] - The strategic focus on large thermal units with lower depreciation costs positions Guodian Power favorably in the current market environment [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 37.624 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.26%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.910 billion yuan, up 12.91% year-on-year [1]. - The clean and efficient energy equipment segment is driving revenue growth, with H1 revenue from this segment reaching 16.767 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [1]. - New effective orders increased to 65.485 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 16.78% year-on-year growth, with significant contributions from clean energy and renewable energy equipment [2]. - The company is solidifying its traditional advantages while accelerating the implementation of strategic emerging industries, including significant orders in hydropower, nuclear power, and hydrogen energy projects [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 15.46%, slightly higher than the same period last year, with the highest revenue contributions from clean efficient power generation equipment, new energy, and emerging growth industries [1]. - The company’s revenue growth is supported by a strong performance in the clean and efficient energy equipment sector, with gross margins for key products increasing by 1.10, 1.28, and 0.94 percentage points respectively [1]. Order Growth - The company’s new effective orders in H1 2025 reached 65.485 billion yuan, with clean efficient energy equipment and renewable energy equipment accounting for 37.59% and 30.82% of the total orders respectively [2]. - The clean efficient power generation equipment segment saw a year-on-year order growth of 32.57%, while renewable energy equipment orders grew by 38.74% [2]. Strategic Development - The company is enhancing its market position in traditional sectors such as hydropower and nuclear power, while also making strides in emerging industries like offshore wind power and hydrogen energy [3]. - The establishment of new manufacturing bases for renewable energy equipment and successful project implementations in hydrogen energy demonstrate the company's commitment to diversifying its portfolio [3].

Summary of Guotou Electric Power Conference Call Company Overview - Guotou Electric Power's clean energy installed capacity reached 71.84% in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by hydropower, with a diversified structure including thermal, wind, and solar power [2][4] - The company's market capitalization is approximately 118 billion yuan, with total assets of 315.3 billion yuan and net assets of 116.4 billion yuan [2][4] - Total profit for the first half of 2025 was 8.2 billion yuan, despite a 5.18% year-on-year decline in revenue to 25.6797 billion yuan [2][4] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.36% year-on-year to 3.795 billion yuan, aided by a targeted issuance of 7 billion yuan [2][4] - The company's electricity generation remained stable at 75.2 billion kWh, with a slight decrease in the average electricity price [2][4] - Earnings per share decreased by 2.84% to 0.4763 yuan [4] Operational Highlights - The company is actively advancing hydropower station construction with a total installed capacity of 3.72 million kW and expanding existing thermal power units [2][5] - Guotou Electric Power is focusing on the development of the Yalong River integrated water, wind, and solar base, with a construction scale of 4.77 million kW [2][5] - The company is also addressing policy changes and emphasizing high-quality renewable energy project development while managing project risks [2][5] Market Dynamics - Fluctuations in the Jiangsu spot market have impacted the external electricity price from Yalong River, necessitating attention to potential adjustments in capacity fees and annual contract prices [2][6] - Overall electricity prices have decreased year-on-year, with varying impacts across different power sources; thermal power competition has intensified, leading to price declines [2][8] Future Outlook - Guotou Electric Power plans to add 3-4 million kW of new renewable energy capacity in 2025, with hydropower from the Yalong River accounting for about two-thirds of this [3][9] - The company is optimistic about future profitability despite challenges in the thermal power market, with expectations of stable income from new projects [10][14] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges from policy changes affecting green electricity trading and the impact of coal price fluctuations on procurement costs [13][15] - The introduction of new trading rules by the National Development and Reform Commission may influence the company's operational strategies [20][21] Additional Insights - The first half of 2025 saw a 15% year-on-year decrease in coal procurement prices, with long-term contracts making up 65% of total procurement [13] - The profitability of the new units in the Qinzhou project is expected to be stable despite increased competition and limited demand growth [10][12] - The company is adjusting its project development strategies in response to market conditions and regulatory changes, particularly in the context of the dual carbon goals [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year increase of 32% in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2, and it plans to distribute its first interim dividend [2] - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 57.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.58 billion yuan, an increase of 47.3% year-on-year [5][7] - The company has adjusted its dividend policy to distribute at least 50% of net profit attributable to shareholders in cash annually [5] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company's total profits from coal, wind, hydro, and solar power were 3.15 billion, 1.94 billion, 1.21 billion, and 0.4 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 109%, 71.3%, 17.2%, and 3.6% [7] - The company's asset impairment losses decreased by 6.9 billion yuan year-on-year to 270 million yuan in H1 2025 [7] - The company reported an operating cash flow of 15.56 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.8% [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate revenues of 119.6 billion, 123.1 billion, and 124.6 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 5.94 billion, 6.37 billion, and 6.88 billion yuan respectively [9][10] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are projected to be 11, 10, and 10 for the same years [9][10] - The report anticipates steady growth in profitability for 2025, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the energy consumption target assessment in the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to catalyze green electricity demand, and the establishment of a sustainable pricing mechanism for new energy will clarify future industry profit expectations, suggesting to seize the turning point opportunities in the sector [1] - In the first half of 2025, the net profits of the thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power sectors were 431.1 million, 262.4 million, 116.2 million, 107.6 million, and 8.6 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.9%, 10.6%, -10.6%, -10.2%, and -37.6% [1] - The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal rebounded to 688 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 100 yuan/ton from the year's low, but still down by 151 yuan/ton year-on-year [1] Group 2 - In July, the total electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a record high and a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, with growth accelerating by 3.2 percentage points compared to June [2] - The electricity consumption in the primary, secondary, tertiary industries, and residential life was 170, 5,936, 2,081, and 2,039 billion kilowatt-hours respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.2%, 4.7%, 10.7%, and 18.09% [2] - The new installed capacity for wind and solar power in July was 2.28 GW and 11.04 GW respectively, with year-on-year declines of 44.0% and 47.6%, primarily due to the decline in the rush for installation following the "530 policy" [3]

Summary of China Nuclear Power Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Nuclear Power - **Industry**: Nuclear and Renewable Energy Key Points Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Nuclear Power achieved revenue of **33.373 billion yuan**, a year-on-year increase of **6.54%** [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was **5.322 billion yuan**, up **9.48%** year-on-year [2] - The total electricity generated was **121.776 billion kWh**, with revenue from nuclear power reaching **40.973 billion yuan** [4] Nuclear Power Operations - The company currently operates **26 nuclear units** with a total installed capacity of **25 million kW** [4] - There are **18 units** under construction or approved for construction, with a combined capacity of **21.859 million kW** [2] - By 2031, the company expects to have a total operational capacity of **46.859 million kW**, representing an **87%** increase from current levels [2][5] Renewable Energy Business - As of June 30, 2025, the company had **33.2249 million kW** of renewable energy capacity in operation, including **10.3418 million kW** of wind and **22.8831 million kW** of solar [6] - The electricity generated from renewable sources was **21.915 billion kWh**, a **35.76%** increase year-on-year [6] - However, net profit from renewable energy dropped **66.28%** to **344 million yuan** due to regional power restrictions and increased depreciation costs [6] Market Dynamics - The average market price for renewable energy sales was approximately **0.28 yuan/kWh**, slightly down by **0.01 yuan/kWh** year-on-year [9] - The company anticipates stable electricity prices in Jiangsu province next year, with a gradual increase in market share [10] Cost Management - Uranium fuel costs are expected to remain stable between **60-80 USD** due to long-term contracts with suppliers [3][11] - The company has implemented cost control measures, which contributed to better-than-expected performance in net profit despite challenges [20] Strategic Planning - The company plans to focus on increasing wind power projects while reducing the scale of solar installations in its **15th Five-Year Plan** [4][14] - Following the implementation of Document 136, the company is optimizing project layouts and shifting focus from the northwest to the southeast coastal areas for better market conditions [16] Dividend Policy - The company maintains a mid-term dividend policy with a payout ratio of no less than **35%**, which is expected to gradually increase [23] - The dividend payout ratio for 2025 reached **41%**, with projections of **70-80%** if only existing units are operated [24] Challenges and Risks - Some renewable projects in the northwest are facing losses due to power restrictions and declining market prices, but overall losses are manageable [25] - The company is exploring solutions to address the issue of electricity transmission lagging behind power generation in the northwest region [19] Future Outlook - The capital expenditure for renewable energy is expected to remain stable but gradually decrease as projects are completed [17] - The company is preparing for the merger of its subsidiary, China Nuclear Huaneng, with Xinhua Hydropower, which is currently in the planning stage [13] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic direction, and market conditions.

Group 1: Power Generation Capacity - As of the end of July 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.67 billion kilowatts, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.2% [1][2] - Solar power generation capacity reached 1.11 billion kilowatts, with a year-on-year increase of 50.8%, while wind power capacity reached 575 million kilowatts, growing by 22.1% [1][2] Group 2: New Installations - From January to July 2025, the total new installed capacity was 325 GW, marking a year-on-year increase of 75.7% [1][2] - Solar power installations accounted for 223 GW of the new capacity, with an impressive year-on-year growth of 80.7%, while wind power installations added 54 GW, up by 79.4% [1][2] - In July 2025, new installations of renewable energy were 12 GW, which is nearly half of the previous month’s figure [1][2][3] Group 3: Specific Trends in Solar and Wind Power - The new solar power installations in July 2025 were 10 GW, which is more than a 50% decrease compared to July 2024 and nearly a halving from June 2025 [3] - Wind power installations in July 2025 were 2.3 GW, slightly down from the previous years' figures and significantly lower than June 2025's 5.1 GW [4] Group 4: Green Methanol Projects - The demand for green methanol is primarily driven by the marine shipping industry, with the first container ship fully powered by green methanol having set sail in July 2025 [6] - China's total planned capacity for green methanol is nearly 60 million tons per year, but actual built capacity is currently below 300,000 tons per year [6] - The opening rate of green methanol projects is improving, with over 600,000 tons per year of capacity expected to be operational by 2024 and around 1.5 million tons per year by 2025 [6][7]