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【电新公用环保】山东广东出台136号文配套细则,装机及电价预期逐步明朗——电新公用环保行业周报20250518(殷中枢)
光大证券研究· 2025-05-19 09:14
Overall Viewpoint - Shandong and Guangdong provinces have issued implementation details for Document No. 136, attracting ongoing attention from the capital market regarding policy developments in more provinces. The core of the policy is to reflect power supply and demand through market-oriented electricity prices, achieving a reasonable installed capacity for renewable energy. The mechanism for electricity volume and pricing aims to stabilize the financing capability of renewable energy projects [2]. Shandong and Guangdong Details - Shandong's details state that the mechanism electricity price for existing projects is based on the coal-fired benchmark electricity price, with a mechanism electricity volume cap referencing the non-marketization rate of other provinces. The execution period is based on a reasonable full life cycle hour. For incremental projects, the bidding declaration sufficiency must not be less than 125%, and the mechanism electricity price must not exceed the bidding cap. The setting of the mechanism electricity price for existing projects is considered friendly, with potential optimization for mechanism electricity volume. The electricity price for incremental projects will depend on current spot prices, with lower prices for solar and relatively better prices for wind energy, leading to more intense bidding in the future [2]. - Guangdong's details apply only to incremental projects, with a mechanism electricity volume declaration cap not exceeding 90%. The execution period is 14 years for offshore wind and 12 years for other projects, with no mechanism electricity price applied after expiration. This detail stabilizes expectations for new renewable energy installations and is favorable for offshore wind [2]. Investment Aspects - In the photovoltaic sector, production and industry chain prices have declined since May, with the market recognizing weak domestic photovoltaic demand for 2025 and 2026. Some companies' stock prices have returned to mid-2024 levels. Although supply-side policies for 2024 are below expectations, the policy direction remains unchanged. Some second- and third-tier companies are seeking to divest equity, and bank credit limits are gradually tightening, indicating a trend. A rebound opportunity may arise when new supply-side policies are introduced or when companies undergo a certain level of clearing [3]. - In the wind power sector, due to its favorable output curve and relatively good economic viability, there are expectations for sales recovery of wind power stations following the issuance of detailed policies under Document No. 136. Additionally, there is potential for profit recovery in wind turbine manufacturing [3]. - In the energy storage and power equipment sector, attention should continue to focus on high growth in large-scale storage in Europe, industrial and commercial storage in Southeast Asia, and off-grid storage in Africa by 2025. Future focus will be on changes in grid demand structure driven by virtual power plants and integrated cloud distribution [3].