Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of industrial silicon is high, and attention should be paid to the limit - up risk. For polysilicon, the policy expectation is becoming stronger, and the futures market is also difficult to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon Si2509: The closing price is 9,655 yuan/ton, with a change of 395 yuan compared to T - 1, 870 yuan compared to T - 5, and 2,265 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 1,234,403 lots, a decrease of 26,527 lots compared to T - 1, 182,495 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 655,909 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest is 380,961 lots, a decrease of 2,335 lots compared to T - 1, 15,692 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 75,405 lots compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon PS2509: The closing price is 49,105 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3,445 yuan compared to T - 1 and 6,635 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume is 757,482 lots, an increase of 136,168 lots compared to T - 1 and 191,736 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest is 192,179 lots, an increase of 20,122 lots compared to T - 1 and 122,358 lots compared to T - 5 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - Industrial silicon: The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract is - 25 yuan/ton, and the cost of the near - month long and continuous first short inter - period arbitrage is 51.8 yuan/ton. The spot premium or discount varies depending on different benchmarks [1]. - Polysilicon: The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract is 260.0 yuan/ton, and the spot premium or discount for N - type recycled materials is - 3365 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price and Profit Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 9700 yuan/ton, and the profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang and Yunnan for new standard 553 is - 1451 yuan/ton and - 3363 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type recycled materials is 46000 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 17.8 yuan/kg [1]. - Organic silicon: The price of DMC is 12050 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises is - 231 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The price of ADC12 is 20250 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is - 690 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Data**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.7 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 17.3 million tons, the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 72.0 million tons, and the futures warehouse receipt inventory is 25.0 million tons [1]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 24.9 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost Data**: - For industrial silicon raw materials, the prices of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. vary in different regions and have different price changes compared to different time points [1]. - For polysilicon - related products, the prices of trichlorosilane, silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA also have different price changes [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The National Energy Administration will continue to deepen the innovation of the power distribution mechanism, expand the new models of new energy local consumption, improve the green energy consumption system, strengthen the formulation and revision of new energy - related standards, and support key technology research and development to promote the high - end, intelligent, green, and integrated development of the industry [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 2, indicating a strong bullish view, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [3].